Scott's District Maps Series

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Democratic gerrymander for Utah:



UT-1 (Blue) - Safe R
71-26 McCain

UT-2 (Green) - Toss-Up
49-48 Obama

UT-3 (Purple) - Lean R
58-39 McCain

UT-4 (Red) - Safe R
75-22 McCain

Democratic Map

132 Democrats, 76 Republicans


Republican gerrymander for Utah:



UT-1 (Blue) - Safe R
61-37 McCain

UT-2 (Green) - Safe R
63-34 McCain

UT-2 (Purple) - Safe R
64-33 McCain

UT-3 (Red) - Safe R
64-34 McCain

Republican Map

100 Republicans, 39 Democrats

[Vega]

Hah, looks great.

[ElectionsGuy]

For Utah, Its better that you just make one district based in Salt Lake City/Summit County. You can extend it down to Grand and San Juan counties if you want, but going up to Ogden just makes things worse actually. I notice that most of Salt Lake City is in the purple district too, so with that you can get up to 56% Obama in 2008 (which would be a lean D by normal standards, and a district that Romney narrowly won). And Unless a Jim Matheson candidate runs again, a democrat has no chance in the purple district (its definitely not lean R)

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

For Utah, Its better that you just make one district based in Salt Lake City/Summit County. You can extend it down to Grand and San Juan counties if you want, but going up to Ogden just makes things worse actually. I notice that most of Salt Lake City is in the purple district too, so with that you can get up to 56% Obama in 2008 (which would be a lean D by normal standards, and a district that Romney narrowly won). And Unless a Jim Matheson candidate runs again, a democrat has no chance in the purple district (its definitely not lean R)

That's actually what I did for my first attempt.  This map makes UT-3 someone winnable, but only if a good Blue Dog runs in a good Dem year.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Democratic gerrymander for Mississippi:



MS-1 (Blue) - Safe R
69-30 McCain

MS-2 (Green) - Safe D
60-40 Obama

MS-3 (Purple) - Safe R
73-26 McCain

MS-4 (Red) - Lean D
55-44 Obama

There is a way to get three Obama districts in MS, but that way there is almost no contiguity and I've already attempted it enough times to want to give up.

Democratic Map

134 Democrats, 78 Republicans

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Democratic gerrymander for Illinois:





IL-1 (Blue) - Safe D
60-39 Obama

IL-2 (Green) - Lean D
56-42 Obama

IL-3 (Purple) - Safe D
60-39 Obama

IL-4 (Red) - Safe D
60-38 Obama

IL-5 (Yellow) - Safe D
75-24 Obama

IL-6 (Teal) - Safe D
84-15 Obama

IL-7 (Grey) - Safe D
62-37 Obama

IL-8 (Slate Blue) - Safe D
80-19 Obama

IL-9 (Cyan) - Likely D
58-41 Obama

IL-10 (Pink) - Safe D
95-4 Obama

IL-11 (Chartreuse) - Safe D
61-38 Obama

IL-12 (Cornflower Blue) - Likely D
57-42 Obama

IL-13 (Salmon) - Lean D
56-42 Obama

IL-14 (Olive) - Toss-Up/Tilt D
54-45 Obama

IL-15 (Dark Orange) - Lean D
56-43 Obama

IL-16 (Lime) - Safe R
55-43 McCain

IL-17 (Dark Slate Blue) - Lean R
51-47 McCain

IL-18 (Gold) - Toss-Up/Tilt D
54-44 Obama

Democratic Map

150 Democrats, 80 Republicans

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Does anyone know the highest number of Republican-friendly seats you can get in Illinois?  The other day I tried to see if I could get a majority, but I couldn't get anywhere near that since even the rural/downstate areas weren't that anti-Obama in 2008.

(In fact, Obama wins Illinois without Cook County if I have my facts straight.)

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Repahblican gerrymandah foah Massachusetts:



MA-1 (Blue) - Toss-Up/Tilt R
52-46 Obama

MA-2 (Green) - Safe D
61-38 Obama

MA-3 (Purple) - Toss-Up/Tilt R
52-47 Obama

MA-4 (Red) - Safe D
73-25 Obama

MA-5 (Yellow) - Safe D
77-22 Obama

MA-6 (Teal) - Lean D
59-39 Obama

MA-7 (Grey) - Lean D
57-41 Obama

MA-8 (Slate Blue) - Safe D
71-27 Obama

MA-9 (Cyan) - Safe D
63-35 Obama

MA-1 and MA-3 are the best pickup opportunities for Republicans out of all of these and probably would have swung to Romney in 2012.  MA-7 could also go GOP in a landslide year as well as MA-6, giving the Republicans a ceiling of 4/9 seats.

MA Republicans don't by any means have a history of supporting really unelectable candidates, so I'll be generous and put this at 7-2 D.  Either way, Republicans would do a hell of a lot better than they can with the real map.

Republican Map

102 Republicans, 46 Democrats

[muon2]

Does anyone know the highest number of Republican-friendly seats you can get in Illinois?  The other day I tried to see if I could get a majority, but I couldn't get anywhere near that since even the rural/downstate areas weren't that anti-Obama in 2008.

(In fact, Obama wins Illinois without Cook County if I have my facts straight.)

Obama had a significant home state bounce in 2008, so Pub-friendly means something other than how many CDs Obama carried in IL. In 2010 the GOP won 11 of 19 seats on a bipartisan-drawn map. In the suburbs a CD Obama carried IL-6 and IL-8 by 13 points, IL-14 by 11, IL-13 by 9 and IL-10 by 23 points! All those went Pub 2 years later. Mappers in 2011 assumed that the Dems would typically need a suburban district that went 57%+ for Obama and 54%+ downstate without a strong incumbent.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Republican gerrymander for Minnesota:




MN-1 (Blue) - Safe D
63-35 Obama

MN-2 (Green) - Safe D
67-31 Obama

MN-3 (Purple) - Safe D
60-38 Obama

MN-4 (Red) - Lean D
56-41 Obama

MN-5 (Yellow) - Likely R
54-44 McCain

MN-6 (Teal) - Lean R
53-45 McCain

MN-7 (Grey) - Tilt R
52-45 McCain

MN-8 (Slate Blue) - Tilt R
50-48 McCain

Collin Peterson would be assigned to MN-4 in this scenario and likely be forced to challenge Rick Nolan.  I'm not sure who would win since both represent a decent size of the district.  It's also possible that Peterson would run in MN-7 instead.  In either case, I decided to assign his district to the Republicans because I think he's likely to retire by the end of the decade.


Republican Map

106 Republicans, 50 Democrats

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Just wondering, is it possible to create a Republican district in Hawaii?

[muon2]

Just wondering, is it possible to create a Republican district in Hawaii?

Not as far as president is concerned. There were very few precincts under 60%, and I see only 2 where McCain won.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

The lowest Obama district I could get in Hawaii was 69%, and Hawaii's a pretty impossible state to gerrymander anyway.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Democratic gerrymander for Arizona:




AZ-1 (Blue) - Toss-Up
52-47 Obama

AZ-2 (Green) - Toss-Up
52-46 Obama

AZ-3 (Purple) - Toss-Up
51-48 Obama

AZ-4 (Red) - Safe D
63-36 Obama

AZ-5 (Yellow) - Toss-Up
52-46 Obama

AZ-6 (Teal) - Safe R
62-37 McCain

AZ-7 (Grey) - Safe R
62-37 McCain

AZ-8 (Slate Blue) - Safe R
64-35 McCain

AZ-9 (Cyan) - Safe R
59-40 McCain

Obviously a big risk for the Democrats.  The best case scenario is a 5-4 map, but the worst case scenario for them is a 1-8 map.  Given Arizona's demographic trends, I suppose I'll give Democrats the majority here, but it is by no means guaranteed.

Also, because Hawaii is practically impossible to gerrymander for either side, I will award both seats to the Democrats.  The only way a Republican can win is, as we've seen, to benefit from a split in the Democratic vote.

Democratic Map

157 Democrats, 84 Republicans


Republican gerrymander for Arizona:




AZ-1 (Blue) - Safe D
65-34 Obama

AZ-2 (Green) - Likely R
55-44 Obama

AZ-3 (Purple) - Safe D
67-31 Obama

AZ-4 (Red) - Safe R
59-41 McCain

AZ-5 (Yellow) - Safe R
59-40 McCain

AZ-6 (Teal) - Safe R
59-40 McCain

AZ-7 (Grey) - Tilt R
53-46 McCain

AZ-8 (Slate Blue) - Safe R
59-40 McCain

AZ-9 (Cyan) - Safe R
62-36 McCain

Republican Map

113 Republicans, 54 Democrats

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Republican gerrymander for Colorado:




CO-1 (Blue) - Safe R
57-41 McCain

CO-2 (Green) - Lean R
53-46 McCain

CO-3 (Purple) - Lean R
53-46 McCain

CO-4 (Red) - Lean R
52-46 McCain

CO-5 (Yellow) - Safe D
65-33 Obama

CO-6 (Teal) - Safe D
67-31 Obama

CO-7 (Grey) - Safe D
67-32 Obama

Republican Map

117 Republicans, 53 Democrats

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Republican gerrymander for Texas:









EDIT: Yes, I realized I didn't use the Atlas colors.  That was a mistake.

The closest district was the one containing Corpus Christie.  Obama won this by 39 votes.

If we give the district to the Republicans (no guarantee as South Texas becomes more Hispanic), this brings their total at 31/38.

Republican Map

148 Republicans, 60 Democrats

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Democratic gerrymander for Florida:











All are relatively safe with the exception of two districts that would go R in any other year except 2008, and one tossup.  Otherwise, I'd give the Democrats 17/27 seats.

Democratic Map

174 Democrats, 94 Republicans