Scott's District Maps Series

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Yup, so my turn.

Basically, the number of apportioned seats will stay the same.  The idea here is to gerrymander two House maps which each max out the number of Republican/Democratic districts.  Per tradition, the default factor in determining who gets each seat will be based on the 2008 election results, unless there's justification for why a seat is not safe for one party even if a candidate won it overwhelmingly (i.e. UT-4).

Others may, of course, contribute.  Please specify which party you're gerrymandering for if you submit a map.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Republican gerrymander for Louisiana:



LA-1 (Blue) - Safe R
58-41 McCain

LA-2 (Green) - Safe R
62-36 McCain

LA-3 (Purple) - Safe R
59-40 McCain

LA-4 (Red) - Safe R
63-35 McCain

LA-5 (Yellow) - Tilt/Lean R
52-46 McCain

(Remember that this would be a district that not only would have voted for McCain, but elected a Republican Congressman who would have likely kept his seat in 2010.)

LA-6 (Teal) - Safe R
57-41 McCain

Republican Map

11 Republicans, 3 Democrats

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

MS-1 (Blue) - Safe R
60-39 McCain

MS-2 (Green) - Likely R
54-45 McCain

MS-3 (Purple) - Likely R
54-45 McCain

MS-4 (Red) - Safe R
57-42 McCain

Republican Map

15 Republicans, 3 Democrats

[traininthedistance]

Basically, the number of apportioned seats will stay the same.  The idea here is to gerrymander two House maps which each max out the number of Republican/Democratic districts.  Per tradition, the default factor in determining who gets each seat will be based on the 2008 election results, unless there's justification for why a seat is not safe for one party even if a candidate won it overwhelmingly (i.e. UT-4).

Remember that 2008 was a pretty Democratic year, so the baseline for pure tossup should probably be 53% Obama rather than 50-50.

I'll probably throw in some maps. 

[Sol]

Basically, the number of apportioned seats will stay the same.  The idea here is to gerrymander two House maps which each max out the number of Republican/Democratic districts.  Per tradition, the default factor in determining who gets each seat will be based on the 2008 election results, unless there's justification for why a seat is not safe for one party even if a candidate won it overwhelmingly (i.e. UT-4).

Remember that 2008 was a pretty Democratic year, so the baseline for pure tossup should probably be 53% Obama rather than 50-50.

I'll probably throw in some maps. 

Varies a lot by area though- that'd be quite safe in SE NC, for example.

[Flake]

DC doesn't have a congressional district

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

DC doesn't have a congressional district

It has a non-voting congresswoman, which is kinda close.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Republican gerrymander for Arkansas:





AR-1 (Blue) - Safe R
58-39 Obama

AR-2 (Green) - Likely R
54-44 McCain

AR-3 (Purple) - Safe R
63-34 McCain

AR-4 (Red) - Safe R
60-37 McCain

Republican Map

14 Republicans, 3 Democrats

[muon2]

Basically, the number of apportioned seats will stay the same.  The idea here is to gerrymander two House maps which each max out the number of Republican/Democratic districts.  Per tradition, the default factor in determining who gets each seat will be based on the 2008 election results, unless there's justification for why a seat is not safe for one party even if a candidate won it overwhelmingly (i.e. UT-4).

Remember that 2008 was a pretty Democratic year, so the baseline for pure tossup should probably be 53% Obama rather than 50-50.

I'll probably throw in some maps. 

The best measure is the one-cycle PVI. Take the Dem percentage of the 2008 two-party presidential vote in the district and subtract 53.7%. Positive values favor the Dems and negative values favor the Pubs. Any result within 1.5% of even is a tossup, between 1.5% and 5.5% is lean and over 5.5% is solid.

To test how strong the gerrymander is, use my skew factor. Find the state PVI as if it were a district and multiply it times 4 and then times the number of districts. You can round that off to the nearest integer as the expected state skew for a non-partisan map. Now add the number of Dem districts minus the number of Pub districts to get the district skew. The difference between the district and expected numbers is the plan skew.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Republican gerrymander for Alabama:



AL-1 (Blue) - Safe R
61-39 McCain

AL-2 (Green) - Safe R
62-37 McCain

AL-3 (Purple) - Safe R
71-23 McCain

AL-4 (Red) - Safe R
54-45 McCain

AL-5 (Yellow) - Safe R
61-38 McCain

AL-6 (Teal) - Safe R
55-44 McCain

AL-7 (Grey) - Safe R
60-39 McCain

Republican Map

22 Republicans, 3 Democrats

[Miles]

LA is ironic; Jindal said he'd veto any plan that had Shreveport and Monroe in the same district because it would help Democrats.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Democratic gerrymander for Michigan:




MI-1 (Blue) - Lean D
54-44 Obama

MI-2 (Green) - Toss-Up
53-45 Obama

MI-3 (Purple) - Safe D
57-42 Obama

MI-4 (Red) - Lean D
54-44 Obama

MI-5 (Yellow) - Lean D
54-44 Obama

MI-6 (Teal) - Likely D
56-42 Obama

MI-7 (Grey) - Safe D
58-41 Obama

MI-8 (Slate Blue) - Safe D
59-39 Obama

MI-9 (Cyan) - Safe D
68-31 Obama

MI-10 (Pink) - Safe D
81-18 Obama

MI-11 (Charteuse) - Safe D
59-39 Obama

MI-12 (Cornflower Blue) - Safe R
59-40 McCain

MI-13 (Dark Salmon) - Toss-Up
54-44 Obama

MI-14 (Olive) - Toss-Up
52-46 Obama

Democratic Map

13 Democrats, 5 Republicans

[muon2]

Anything less than 57% Obama in 2008 is hardly safe for the Dems. Look at the 2010 results in some of the D+a few districts. I'd count 53 as tossup and 54-57 as lean D on your MI CDs.

[Miles]

Obama would have especially slumped quite a bit in the Upper Peninsula/Traverse City district.

[Gass3268]

I like this idea, but I wished that the maps still followed VRA.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Thanks; I fixed the ratings to more accurately reflect the districts.


Democratic gerrymander for Iowa:



IA-1 (Blue) - Safe R
56-44 McCain

IA-2 (Green) - Safe D
59-42 Obama

IA-3 (Purple) - Lean D
55-43 Obama

IA-4 (Red) - Safe D
60-39 Obama

Democratic Map

16 Democrats, 6 Republicans

[Dave from Michigan]

wow that Michigan map is awful looking. I believe I'm in the 7th district in the map.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Democratic gerrymander for South Carolina:



SC-1 (Blue) - Safe R
60-40 McCain

SC-2 (Green) - Likely D
55-44 Obama

SC-3 (Purple) - Likely D
55-44 McCain

SC-4 (Red) - Toss-Up
52-47 Obama

SC-5 (Yellow) - Likely D
54-47 Obama

SC-6 (Teal) - Safe R
69-29 McCain
*This one would probably have some legal challenges, as the population deviates 63,845

SC-7 (Grey) - Safe R
67-32 McCain
*This one would also have problems (-58,837 deviation)

Democratic Map

20 Democrats, 9 Republicans

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Democratic gerrymander for Indiana:



IN-1 (Blue) - Safe D
60-40 Obama

IN-2 (Green) - Lean D
53-45 Obama

IN-3 (Purple) - Lean D
53-45 Obama

IN-4 (Red) - Safe R
59-39 McCain

IN-5 (Yellow) - Safe D
68-31 Obama

IN-6 (Teal) - Safe R
61-38 McCain

IN-7 (Grey) - Safe R
60-39 McCain

IN-8 (Slate Blue) - Safe R
56-42 McCain

IN-9 (Cyan) - Likely D
56-43 Obama

Democratic Map

25 Democrats, 13 Republicans

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Democratic gerrymander for Oklahoma:



OK-1 (Blue) - Safe R
71-29 McCain

OK-2 (Green) - Safe R
71-24 McCain

OK-3 (Purple) - Toss-Up
52-48 Obama

OK-4 (Red) - Safe R
68-32 McCain

OK-5 (Yellow) - Safe R
69-31 McCain

Democratic Map

21 Democrats, 14 Republicans


I made a few attempts today at creating an AL gerrymander that has four D seats, but have thus far been unsuccessful.  I know it's doable because I saw a map on a Daily Kos blog one time, but I haven't been able to replicate it.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Democratic gerrymander for Nebraska:



NE-1 (Blue) - Safe R
59-39 McCain

NE-2 (Green) - Safe D
57-42 Obama

NE-3 (Purple) - Safe R
68-30 McCain

Democratic Map

22 Democrats, 16 Republicans

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Democratic gerrymander for South Carolina:



SC-1 (Blue) - Safe R
60-40 McCain

SC-2 (Green) - Likely D
55-44 Obama

SC-3 (Purple) - Likely D
55-44 McCain

SC-4 (Red) - Toss-Up
52-47 Obama

SC-5 (Yellow) - Likely D
54-47 Obama

SC-6 (Teal) - Safe R
69-29 McCain
*This one would probably have some legal challenges, as the population deviates 63,845

SC-7 (Grey) - Safe R
67-32 McCain
*This one would also have problems (-58,837 deviation)

I've been working on a Democratic gerrymander that would have reasonable deviation levels, but it is far from finished.  I'll post it when it is done.

[muon2]

Democratic gerrymander for South Carolina:



SC-1 (Blue) - Safe R
60-40 McCain

SC-2 (Green) - Likely D
55-44 Obama

SC-3 (Purple) - Likely D
55-44 McCain

SC-4 (Red) - Toss-Up
52-47 Obama

SC-5 (Yellow) - Likely D
54-47 Obama

SC-6 (Teal) - Safe R
69-29 McCain
*This one would probably have some legal challenges, as the population deviates 63,845

SC-7 (Grey) - Safe R
67-32 McCain
*This one would also have problems (-58,837 deviation)

I've been working on a Democratic gerrymander that would have reasonable deviation levels, but it is far from finished.  I'll post it when it is done.

I'll be curious to see what you got. All those 54-55% CDs could be dicey in a 2010 election. I was playing around a bit with it and decided to play for a safe D-gerry that maintains a VRA CD at 52.8% BVAP. I still get two other Dem CDs at Obama 58-41 and 57-42.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia GOPMander (12-2)

GA-1: 93.2% Obama, 6.4% McCain;
81% Black, 12% White, 5% Latino

GA-2: 50.3% McCain, 48.9% Obama;
66% White, 17% Black, 8% Latino

GA-3: 54.3% McCain, 44.7% Obama;
60% White, 23% Black, 10% Latino

GA-4: 65.8% McCain, 33.2% Obama;
75% White, 17% Black, 6% Latino

GA-5: 68.8% McCain, 30.2% Obama;
72% White, 15% Latino, 7% Black

GA-6: 69.9% McCain, 29.2% Obama;
70% White, 14% Latino, 8% Black

GA-7: 57.8% Obama, 41.4% McCain;
52% White, 29% Black, 11% Latino

GA-8: 60.8% McCain, 38.3% Obama;
70% White, 17% Black, 8% Latino

GA-9: 52.1% McCain, 47.3% Obama;
56% White, 37% Black, 4% Latino

GA-10: 53.4% McCain, 45.9% Obama;
57% White, 34% Black, 6% Latino

GA-11: 53.2% McCain, 46.2% Obama;
58% White, 36% Black, 4% Latino

GA-12: 54.6% McCain, 44.9% Obama;
60% White, 32% Black, 5% Latino

GA-13: 55.9% McCain, 43.5% Obama;
64% White, 28% Black, 5% Latino

GA-14: 52.5% McCain, 47.0% Obama;
55% White, 38% Black, 5% Latino

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Republican Map

34 Republicans, 5 Democrats