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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
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« Reply #50 on: February 16, 2014, 03:24:00 PM »

West Virginia is much less predictable for local elections as national elections, they still like to vote Democrat congressmen.

WV's House delegation currently only has one Democrat now, and even he is up for a tough reelection campaign this year.  I think WV is one of those states that will revert to Republican-leaning swing states once Obama's out of office, but for now I would rate all those House seats as Lean R.  If Rahall decided to retire this cycle, his seat would be Likely R.
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Chunk Yogurt for President!
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« Reply #51 on: February 16, 2014, 07:18:47 PM »

West Virginia is much less predictable for local elections as national elections, they still like to vote Democrat congressmen.

WV's House delegation currently only has one Democrat now, and even he is up for a tough reelection campaign this year.  I think WV is one of those states that will revert to Republican-leaning swing states once Obama's out of office, but for now I would rate all those House seats as Lean R.  If Rahall decided to retire this cycle, his seat would be Likely R.

I think that in a decade or two, the Republicans will dominate the local elections.  But, if WV is like Kentucky, the older generation still likes Democrats, just as long as they aren't in the White House.
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
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« Reply #52 on: February 16, 2014, 09:29:53 PM »

Republican gerrymander for Iowa:



IA-1 (Blue) - Lean R
52-47 McCain

IA-2 (Green) - Lean R
51-47 McCain

IA-3 (Purple) - Safe D
62-36 Obama

IA-4 (Red) - Safe D
60-39 Obama

Republican Map



62 Republicans, 23 Democrats
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
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« Reply #53 on: February 16, 2014, 10:47:00 PM »

Democratic gerrymander for Wisconsin:



WI-1 (Blue) - Lean D
57-42 Obama

WI-2 (Green) - Safe D
60-39 Obama

WI-3 (Purple) - Safe R
61-38 McCain

WI-4 (Red) - Safe D
62-37 Obama

WI-5 (Yellow) - Lean D
55-43 Obama

WI-6 (Teal) - Safe D
65-33 Obama

WI-7 (Grey) - Lean D
56-32 Obama

WI-8 (Slate Blue) - Likely D
57-41 Obama

Democratic Map



112 Democrats, 67 Republicans
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
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« Reply #54 on: February 19, 2014, 05:23:51 PM »

Republican gerrymander for North Carolina:



NC-1 (Blue) - Safe D
69-30 Obama

NC-2 (Green) - Likely R
53-46 McCain

NC-3 (Purple) - Likely R
53-46 McCain

NC-4 (Red) - Likely D
56-43 Obama

NC-5 (Yellow) - Likely R (Tilt D w/McIntyre)
54-45 McCain

NC-6 (Teal) - Lean R
51-48 McCain

NC-7 (Grey) - Safe D
59-41 Obama

NC-8 (Slate Blue) - Safe R
61-38 McCain

NC-9 (Cyan) - Safe R
56-43 McCain

NC-10 (Pink) - Safe D
68-32 Obama

NC-11 (Chartreuse) - Safe R
57-42 McCain

NC-12 (Cornflower Blue) - Safe R
54-44 McCain

NC-13 (Salmon) - Safe R
59-40 McCain

Republican Map



71 Republicans, 27 Democrats
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
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« Reply #55 on: February 19, 2014, 07:18:53 PM »

Republican gerrymander for South Carolina:



SC-1 (Blue) - Safe R
55-44 McCain

SC-2 (Green) - Likely R
53-46 McCain

SC-3 (Purple) - Safe R
55-44 McCain

SC-4 (Red) - Likely R
53-46 McCain

SC-5 (Yellow) - Lean R
52-47 McCain

SC-6 (Teal) - Safe R
55-44 McCain

SC-7 (Grey) - Safe R
56-43 McCain

Republican Map



78 Republicans, 27 Democrats
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
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« Reply #56 on: February 19, 2014, 08:03:21 PM »

Democratic gerrymander for Maryland:



MD-1 (Blue) - Lean D
56-42 Obama

MD-2 (Green) - Safe D
62-37 Obama

MD-3 (Purple) - Tilt D
54-44 Obama

MD-4 (Red) - Safe D
65-34 Obama

MD-5 (Yellow) - Safe D
64-35 Obama

MD-6 (Teal) - Safe D
68-30 Obama

MD-7 (Grey) - Safe D
69-30 Obama

MD-8 (Slate Blue) - Safe D
61-38 Obama

Democratic Map



120 Democrats, 67 Republicans



Republican gerrymander for Maryland:



MD-1 (Blue) - Safe R
57-42 McCain

MD-2 (Green) - Safe D
81-18 Obama

MD-3 (Purple) - Safe D
67-32 Obama

MD-4 (Red) - Safe D
70-29 Obama

MD-5 (Yellow) - Safe D
68-31 Obama

MD-6 (Teal) - Safe D
89-11 Obama

MD-7 (Grey) - Safe R
57-42 McCain

MD-8 (Slate Blue) - Safe R
55-44 McCain

Republican Map



81 Republicans, 32 Democrats
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
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« Reply #57 on: February 19, 2014, 09:57:30 PM »

Republican gerrymander for Virginia:



VA-1 (Blue) - Safe R
56-42 McCain

VA-2 (Green) - Safe R
56-43 McCain

VA-3 (Purple) - Lean R
53-46 McCain

VA-4 (Red) - Safe D
75-24 Obama

VA-5 (Yellow) - Likely R
55-45 McCain

VA-6 (Teal) - Lean R
53-47 McCain

VA-7 (Grey) - Lean D
55-44 Obama

VA-8 (Grey) - Lean R
54-45 McCain

VA-9 (Cyan) - Safe D
60-40 Obama

VA-10 (Pink) - Safe D
67-32 Obama

VA-11 (Chartreuse) - Safe D
58-42 Obama

Republican Map



87 Republicans, 37 Democrats
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
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« Reply #58 on: February 19, 2014, 10:15:51 PM »

Democratic gerrymander for Idaho:



ID-1 (Blue) - Safe R
70-27 McCain

ID-2 (Green) - Likely R
54-44 McCain

Democratic Map



120 Democrats, 69 Republicans



Republican gerrymander for Idaho:



ID-1 (Blue) - Safe R
62-36 McCain

ID-2 (Green) - Safe R
61-37 McCain

Republican Map



89 Republicans, 37 Democrats
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #59 on: February 19, 2014, 10:29:02 PM »

I realize that as far as DRA is concerned your MD-8 districts are contiguous, but I wouldn't call them that. Nor would I call MD-6 or MD-7 in your Democratic gerrymander contiguous.  Except at the Chesapeake Bay Bridge east of Annapolis, drawing a district divided between the Eastern and Western Shores is not what I would call contiguous for Maryland.

For a similar reason, your VA-3 in your Republican gerrymander is not contiguous.
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Sol
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« Reply #60 on: February 19, 2014, 10:36:05 PM »

Why do your NC and VA GOP maps have more Democratic districts than their rl equivalents?
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
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« Reply #61 on: February 19, 2014, 11:13:10 PM »

Contiguity wasn't necessarily a goal for any of these maps.  I'm not applying any standards or regulations to them aside from maximizing party ID and candidate percentages in each district.  VA and NC admittedly weren't very successful, nor was PA, and I'll probably go back to them in the future.

The problem with these states is that their real-life counterparts have competitive districts in them - something I'm trying to avoid creating in both my series.  VA, for example, has one Republican Congressman (Frank Wolf) whose district narrowly voted for Obama in 2012.  With him retiring this cycle, the seat is now in competitive territory and will likely go to the party that is favored nationwide.  Unfortunately, I probably ended up making his seat safer for Democrats, but this is exchanged for more Republican-friendly districts in other parts of the state.  Incumbency can also be considered to judge the strength of a candidate to break his or her gerrymander.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #62 on: February 20, 2014, 05:06:36 AM »

Nevada DEMander (4-0)


CD-1: Obama 57.2%, McCain 40.5%;
White 49%, Latino 31%, Black 11%

CD-2: Obama 54.3%, McCain 43.3%;
White 59%, Latino 22%, Asian 9%

CD-3: Obama 53.9%, McCain 43.9%;
White 68%, Latino 18%, Asian & Black 5%

CD-4: Obama 55.7%, McCain 42.4%;
White 60%, Latino 18%, Asian 12%
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« Reply #63 on: February 20, 2014, 05:49:29 AM »

Colorado DEMander (6-1)

I'm kind of regretting not going for a 7-0, seeing as how I ended up with three 60%+ Obama precincts. Oh well.


CD-1: Obama 52.3%, McCain 46.3%;
White 79%, Latino 13%, Asian 3%

CD-2: Obama 52.2%, McCain 46.1%;
White 80%, Latino 16%, Asian 2%

CD-3: Obama 52.4%, McCain 45.9%;
White 70%, Latino 21%, Black 4%

CD-4: McCain 64.8%, Obama 33.7%;
White 81%, Latino 13%, Black 2%

CD-5: Obama 61.0%, McCain 37.3%;
White 84%, Latino 10%, Asian 3%

CD-6: Obama 61.7%, McCain 36.8%;
White 66%, Latino 19%, Black 8%

CD-7: Obama 62.3%, McCain 35.9%;
White 56%, Latino 30%, Black 8%
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windjammer
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« Reply #64 on: February 20, 2014, 07:04:25 AM »

How do you draw a map? It's interesting me, but I don't how to do. Thanks!
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windjammer
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« Reply #65 on: February 20, 2014, 07:06:20 AM »

Colorado DEMander (6-1)

I'm kind of regretting not going for a 7-0, seeing as how I ended up with three 60%+ Obama precincts. Oh well.


CD-1: Obama 52.3%, McCain 46.3%;
White 79%, Latino 13%, Asian 3%

CD-2: Obama 52.2%, McCain 46.1%;
White 80%, Latino 16%, Asian 2%

CD-3: Obama 52.4%, McCain 45.9%;
White 70%, Latino 21%, Black 4%

CD-4: McCain 64.8%, Obama 33.7%;
White 81%, Latino 13%, Black 2%

CD-5: Obama 61.0%, McCain 37.3%;
White 84%, Latino 10%, Asian 3%

CD-6: Obama 61.7%, McCain 36.8%;
White 66%, Latino 19%, Black 8%

CD-7: Obama 62.3%, McCain 35.9%;
White 56%, Latino 30%, Black 8%
It's not really a DEMander, after all, you have drawn 3 districts that could potentially be won by the Pubs!
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morgieb
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« Reply #66 on: February 20, 2014, 07:35:36 AM »

No offence AG but those districts reek of dummymanders.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #67 on: February 20, 2014, 01:39:05 PM »

LOL that this elects fewer Republicans than the actual map.

Republican gerrymander for Virginia:



VA-1 (Blue) - Safe R
56-42 McCain

VA-2 (Green) - Safe R
56-43 McCain

VA-3 (Purple) - Lean R
53-46 McCain

VA-4 (Red) - Safe D
75-24 Obama

VA-5 (Yellow) - Likely R
55-45 McCain

VA-6 (Teal) - Lean R
53-47 McCain

VA-7 (Grey) - Lean D
55-44 Obama

VA-8 (Grey) - Lean R
54-45 McCain

VA-9 (Cyan) - Safe D
60-40 Obama

VA-10 (Pink) - Safe D
67-32 Obama

VA-11 (Chartreuse) - Safe D
58-42 Obama

Republican Map



87 Republicans, 37 Democrats
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
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« Reply #68 on: February 20, 2014, 02:42:29 PM »

I'm going to hold off on the Colorado submission.  I'm pretty sure there's a way of making all seven seats relatively friendly to Democrats.

Democratic Map



124 Democrats, 69 Republicans
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
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« Reply #69 on: February 20, 2014, 03:22:42 PM »

Scratch that.  You can create 7/7 Obama districts, but most of them would be in the toss-up category.  Adam, what I'd try to do is strengthen the Obama margins in CDs 1, 2, and 3.  Given that you were able to get >60% Obama districts in the latter three, it shouldn't be difficult.

But for now...

Democratic Map



130 Democrats, 70 Republicans
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
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« Reply #70 on: February 20, 2014, 04:02:38 PM »
« Edited: February 20, 2014, 04:29:39 PM by Rep. Scott »

Republican gerrymander for Indiana:



IN-1 (Blue) - Safe R
55-44 McCain

IN-2 (Green) - Safe D
67-33 Obama

IN-3 (Purple) - Safe R
56-43 McCain

IN-4 (Red) - Safe R
56-43 McCain

IN-5 (Yellow) - Safe R
56-43 McCain

IN-6 (Teal) - Safe D
69-31 Obama

IN-7 (Grey) - Lean R
51-48 McCain
*Baron Hill-esque Dem could win in a good year

IN-8 (Slate Blue) - Likely R
53-45 McCain

IN-9 (Cyan) - Tilt R
50-48 McCain
*Baron Hill-esque Dem could win in a good year

7/9 seats.  Worst case scenario: 5/9

Republican Map



96 Republicans, 39 Democrats
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
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« Reply #71 on: February 20, 2014, 08:53:47 PM »

Democratic gerrymander for Arkansas:

Or, what the Democrats should have drawn when they had the chance:


AR-1 (Blue) - Safe D
54-44 Obama

AR-2 (Green) - Safe R
64-33 McCain

AR-3 (Purple) - Safe R
64-34 McCain

AR-4 (Red) - Safe R
64-34 McCain

The overconfident part of me what's to rank AR-4 as 'Lean' or 'Likely R' because South Arkansas is ancestrally Democratic, but I'd have to compromise a lot on the first district for that to be realistic.

Democratic Map



131 Democrats, 73 Republicans
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
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« Reply #72 on: February 20, 2014, 09:00:29 PM »

Miles sent me a better map of AR on Facebook.


I created this map for 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans. I actually submitted this plan to the AR redistricting website.



Blue- Mike Ross (D) Ross trades most of his western territory for nearly the entire delta region. I had to make this district winnable for a Democrat in the future when Ross moves onto bigger things.

Green- Bill Halter (D) I designed this district so that former Lt. Governor Bill Halter could make a political comeback; he would likely defeat incumbent Tim Griffin in this district. Really, any Democrat could win here; this new district would actually have gone for Kerry over Bush. Its anchored in Little Rock and Pine Bluff.

Purple- Steve Womack (R) The third district is reconfigured so that it encompasses nearly the entire northern border. Its population base is still in Benton and Washington counties. Womack is still quite safe.

Red- Open Seat. Under this plan, Rep. Rick Crawford would live in Mike Ross’ district, thus this seat is open. Basically, I made this out of the counties I had left over from the other districts. It contains mostly rural central and western counties. Likely Republican.

McCain, I believe, wins all four districts in this scenario, but the blue and green districts are ripe for a Blue Dog.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #73 on: February 20, 2014, 09:17:48 PM »

I personally think its better to have one safe Little Rock/Pine Bluff/Delta dem district than 2 blue dog winnable districts, but either can work I suppose.
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Miles
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« Reply #74 on: February 20, 2014, 09:22:05 PM »

Actually a better version:



Romney won them all in 2012:

CD1: 57/40
CD2: 51/47
CD3: 66/31
CD4: 69/28

The Dem average for CD1 in DRA is 56% IIRC.
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