2000 election if there'd been no Lewinsky affair

[Mr. Morden]

Assume there's no Lewinsky affair, and thus no impeachment.  Thus, no anti-impeachment backlash in the 1998 midterms, and Gingrich potentially survives as Speaker for at least another term (though he was already pretty unpopular for other reasons, so it's questionable).

Bush and Gore are still the likely nominees in 2000, but Gore likely picks someone else as his running mate, since picking Lieberman was seen as a way to separate himself from Clinton.  Gore presumably doesn't try to keep Clinton at arm's length to the extent that he did IRL, and Bush's promises of bringing a "new tone" to Washington potentially get less traction, since we haven't just been through the big impeachment drama.

So there's an argument to be made that this would result in Gore winning Florida by enough votes to avoid controversy.  But what's your take?  Who does Gore pick as his running mate in this scenario, and what does the 2000 map (and popular vote tally) look like?

[TTS1996]

Why does Gore pick a different running mate? Who are you thinking of?

[Mr. Morden]

Why does Gore pick a different running mate? Who are you thinking of?

This was the speech that brought national attention to Lieberman back in 1998:

http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1310&dat=19980904&id=lU9WAAAAIBAJ&sjid=t-sDAAAAIBAJ&pg=6705,613628

And the speculation at the time that Gore picked him as his running mate was that Gore was sending a message about turning a page from the non-stop scandals of the Clinton years.  It was Gore's way of saying that he was his own man, to name as his #2 a guy who'd publicly rebuked Clinton in such a way.

As for who he might pick instead, I don't know, but the names that were floated at the time included Bayh, Graham, and Kerry.

[Sec. of State Superique]

Bob Kerrey!

[NewYorkExpress]

I actually think Bush wins by (roughly) the same margin, remember the impeachment fiasco wasn't the only Clinton scandal,... we had Whitewater, and nannygate, and the Vince Foster debacle and at Travelgate and at least Health care Reform and at least 15 other scandals during Clinton's tenure as President. It was a testament to Gore's skill (and Bush's lack thereof) that this race was even close in the first place.

[sdu754]

Presidential elections generally come down to who people would rather be friends with, so Gore loses either way. I don't think Clinton hurt Gores chances anyways, Clinton was popular. As far as running mates go, how does Gore do any better than Lieberman from the standpoint of a VPs actual function? Gore might have chosen someone from a swing state, but that makes no guarantees (Gore lost his home state of Tennessee.)

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Gore / Graham easily wins Florida and the election

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Without Lewinsky, there's a good chance Gore is not the Democratic nominee.  The whole trauma of the impeachment trial caused the Democrats to rally around their standard bearers and Gore assiduously wrapped himself in the Clinton flag.  (While understandable, Gore way overdid it, which is why I supported Bradley in 2000, and then dithered until election day whether to vote for Bush or Nader, finally deciding on Nader.)  That isn't to say Bradley would be the nominee if Gore wasn't.  Without Lewinsky, the race for the Democratic nomination would have been far more open and more candidates would have been likely to enter.

[MATTROSE94]

Without Lewinsky, there's a good chance Gore is not the Democratic nominee.  The whole trauma of the impeachment trial caused the Democrats to rally around their standard bearers and Gore assiduously wrapped himself in the Clinton flag.  (While understandable, Gore way overdid it, which is why I supported Bradley in 2000, and then dithered until election day whether to vote for Bush or Nader, finally deciding on Nader.)  That isn't to say Bradley would be the nominee if Gore wasn't.  Without Lewinsky, the race for the Democratic nomination would have been far more open and more candidates would have been likely to enter.

Maybe Bush Vs. Kerry 4 years earlier.

[sdu754]

I think Gore would have been the nominee. Democrats have a pretty standard record of running VPs. Even after the unpopular administrations of Carter & LBJ, their VPs were ran. Plus Gore was seen as a rising star in the party in 1988-1992 range.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Without Lewinsky, there's a good chance Gore is not the Democratic nominee.  The whole trauma of the impeachment trial caused the Democrats to rally around their standard bearers and Gore assiduously wrapped himself in the Clinton flag.  (While understandable, Gore way overdid it, which is why I supported Bradley in 2000, and then dithered until election day whether to vote for Bush or Nader, finally deciding on Nader.)  That isn't to say Bradley would be the nominee if Gore wasn't.  Without Lewinsky, the race for the Democratic nomination would have been far more open and more candidates would have been likely to enter.

Maybe Bush Vs. Kerry 4 years earlier.

Biden, Bayh, and maybe Bob Graham would all run.

[Vega]

Gore should have picked George J. Mitchell as his VP. He has the northeast appeal, and is fairly well known.

Or even Bob Graham would have great. He might have flipped Florida just a tad.