WA-04: Doc Hastings retiring

[publicunofficial]

Fun Fact: WA-04 is the least white district in Washington.

[publicunofficial]

Roll Call plays Great Mentioner:


2012 Public Lands Commissioner Nominee Clint Didier (R-Connell)
Former WA Dept. of Agriculture Director Dan Newhouse (R-Sunnyside)
State Sen. Sharon Brown (R-Kennewick)
State Sen. Janea Holmquist Newbry (R-Moses Lake)
State Sen. Curtis King (R-Yakima)
State Rep. Bruce Chandler (R-Granger)
State Rep. Brad Klippert (R-Kennewick)
State Rep. Matt Manweller (R-Ellensburg) (Lives in the 8th District, but his seat covers a large portion of the 4th)
State Rep. David Taylor (R-Moxee)


Didier is a Tea Party type, Klippert and Brown are social conservatives, and Newbry and Newhouse are Chamber of Commerce/Farm Bureau types. The rest I'm not sure about.

[publicunofficial]

"Great Mentioner"? That's a thing?

Every open seat has Roll Call name about 10 or so candidates that could run. They usually get a couple of them right.

Fun Fact: WA-04 is the least white district in Washington.

McDermott's district is whiter?

Yeah, the only reason Hasting's district is less white is because it so Hispanic. And part of the reason it is so republican is because Hispanics don't turn out very well. And Seattle is definitely the type of place packed with urban liberal elitists.

WA-04 is around 25% Hispanic, IIRC. I think it's the least white district in the Pacific Northwest. However, I'd wager most of the Hispanics there aren't eligible to vote, and the ones that are eligible don't turnout very well. I could see it becoming a competitive seat in a generation or two, but for now is super-safe R.

[publicunofficial]

Roll Call plays Great Mentioner:


2012 Public Lands Commissioner Nominee Clint Didier (R-Connell)
Former WA Dept. of Agriculture Director Dan Newhouse (R-Sunnyside)
State Sen. Sharon Brown (R-Kennewick)
State Sen. Janea Holmquist Newbry (R-Moses Lake)
State Sen. Curtis King (R-Yakima)
State Rep. Bruce Chandler (R-Granger)
State Rep. Brad Klippert (R-Kennewick)
State Rep. Matt Manweller (R-Ellensburg) (Lives in the 8th District, but his seat covers a large portion of the 4th)
State Rep. David Taylor (R-Moxee)


Didier is a Tea Party type, Klippert and Brown are social conservatives, and Newbry and Newhouse are Chamber of Commerce/Farm Bureau types. The rest I'm not sure about.

I immediately become Newbry and Newhouse fan as least objectionable among Republicans mentioned. But may be there is someone better (but electable, i don't care about unelectable candidates)?

Every Republican is electable in WA-04 so no need to worry about that. Even Didier, who is a real Joe Miller type, would have no trouble here.


Personally, I think Didier or Newbry wins it. It's possible that the Dems don't put up a candidate or fail to make the Top Two, in which case the more liberal Republican would probably win.

[publicunofficial]

I know that every Republican is electable in WA-04, and no Democrat - is. Hence (with my views) - i want to see as moderate as possible republican elected, and will root for him. It's very simple...

The most moderate Republican in the area is probably State Rep. Maureen Walsh, who lives just outside WA-04, in the Walla Walla suburbs. She gained fame for her viral speech in favor of marriage equality, and she's so moderate that most of her opponents have been other Republicans looking to kick her out. She'd have little chance in a primary, unless she somehow became the de facto D candidate.

[publicunofficial]

Our Campaigns corroborates my numbers -- Hastings has not faced a close race since 1996.

In other news, the first Republican candidate -- Janea Holmquist Newbry -- has just announced her candidacy.

I don't doubt you! I'm just peeved that I've been duped by Wikipedia.

I'm sure Didier will announce soon. Out of the potential candidates, I definitely *like* Newbry the best.

Didier is in and so is Sharon Brown.

[publicunofficial]

Franklin County Commissioner Brad Peck (R) is in. Geographically, he cuts into Didier's base. No idea where he stands ideologically.


State Rep. Matt Manweller, State Rep. David Taylor, and Yakima Mayor Micah Cawley have all declined bids, with Cawley endorsing Newbry.

[publicunofficial]

Geographically, he cuts into Didier's base. No idea where he stands ideologically.

I was under the impression Didier was from Grant County (Ephrata). It seems Peck getting in hurts Sharon Brown more than him.

While we're on the subject of geography, it's worth noting most of Newbry Holmquist's district isn't in this CD (it's split between the 8th and the 5th). And if Didier is from Ephrata, all she really has is Moses Lake (population 21,000).

If I were a Republican officeholder from Yakima County, I'd get in this thing quick.

Didier is from Connell, but currently lives in Eltopia.

[publicunofficial]

Geographically, he cuts into Didier's base. No idea where he stands ideologically.

I was under the impression Didier was from Grant County (Ephrata). It seems Peck getting in hurts Sharon Brown more than him.

While we're on the subject of geography, it's worth noting most of Newbry Holmquist's district isn't in this CD (it's split between the 8th and the 5th). And if Didier is from Ephrata, all she really has is Moses Lake (population 21,000).

If I were a Republican officeholder from Yakima County, I'd get in this thing quick.

Didier is from Connell, but currently lives in Eltopia.

Ah, ok. So Newbry Holmquist has Grant County all to herself. That'll help.

Yakima County still the big wildcard.

Well here's your Yakima candidate. Dan Newhouse is in.


State Rep. Judy Warnick, meanwhile, will run for Newbry's Senate seat.

[publicunofficial]

It seems to me - too many "establishment conservatives". Can it lead to situation of 2 "tea partiers" in general?

The Tea Party doesn't have a huge presence in Washington besides Didier (As I've said before, the Tea Party Wave never really hit the west coast). If another Tea Party guy gets into the race, it'll be an absolute nobody.

[publicunofficial]

State Sen. Sharon Brown is out.