morgieb's Map Series

[morgieb]

Because it seems to be in vogue.

Will do my non-partisan redistricting. Main factors are community of interest and shape. VRA not taken into consideration but will try to create more opportunities for minorities to win. For now will redo the current map but am willing to do other ideas after I finish mine.

Map:

[morgieb]

Sweet Home Alabama.



1 (blue): 60.6% McCain. 59.4% R average. Safe R.
2 (green): 59.7% McCain. 55.9% R average. Safe R. (BTW, this is probably one of the few districts nationwide that isn't centered on a major city)
3 (purple): 52.7% McCain. 51.3% R average. 40% black population This district seems like a decent fit for a Blue Dog, Bobby Bright likely won here in 2010. Lean R.
4 (red): 51% Obama, 50.8% D average. Lean D because this is the South and most districts are pretty polarised. Like the 3rd, 40% of the population is black.
5 (yellow): 74.9% McCain, 67.4% R average. Among the safest of all Safe R districts in America.
6 (teal): 64.4% McCain, 56.3% R average. Safe R.
7 (grey): 64.6% McCain, 51.6% R average. Would've likely been held by a Democrat before 2010, so Likely R (though in practice it's Safe R).

[morgieb]

Arizona:



1 (blue): 56.1% Obama, 55.8% D average. Likely D.
2 (green): 55.2% McCain, 57.2% R average. Safe R. Barely majority-white in terms of total population at 50.0%, and over 40% of the total population is Hispanic.
3 (purple): 62.4% Obama, 63.2% D average. Safe D, Hispanic majority (59.7%).
4 (red): 57.6% McCain, 61.3% R average. Safe R.
5 (yellow): 54.4% McCain, 57.9% R average. Safe R.
6 (teal): 52.6% McCain, 54.8% R average. Likely R.
7 (grey): 58.9% McCain, 61.8% R average. Safe R.
8 (slate blue): 63.0% McCain, 66.7% R average. Safe R.
9 (cyan): 54.9% McCain, 56.9% R average. Safe R. Over 20% of the population is Native American, can't see many districts in the country topping that.

[muon2]

Sweet Home Alabama.



1 (blue): 60.6% McCain. 59.4% R average. Safe R.
2 (green): 59.7% McCain. 55.9% R average. Safe R. (BTW, this is probably one of the few districts nationwide that isn't centered on a major city)
3 (purple): 52.7% McCain. 51.3% R average. 40% black population This district seems like a decent fit for a Blue Dog, Bobby Bright likely won here in 2010. Lean R.
4 (red): 51% Obama, 50.8% D average. Lean D because this is the South and most districts are pretty polarised. Like the 3rd, 40% of the population is black.
5 (yellow): 74.9% McCain, 67.4% R average. Among the safest of all Safe R districts in America.
6 (teal): 64.4% McCain, 56.3% R average. Safe R.
7 (grey): 64.6% McCain, 51.6% R average. Would've likely been held by a Democrat before 2010, so Likely R (though in practice it's Safe R).

Why split three counties between CD 5 and 7?

[morgieb]

1 (blue): 60.9% McCain, 50.4% R average. Probably Safe R in practice, but it would've been held by a Congressional Democrat until 2010, so Likely R.
2 (green): 53.0% McCain, 53.6% D average. A good chance that even Kerry won this district. Tilts R though because the Dems might need to wait for Obama to go for this district to make this district really winnable.
3 (purple): 64.0% McCain, 62.4% R average. Safe R.
4 (red): 57.0% McCain, 51.6% D average. Likely R, and unlike the 1st the Dems probably can still win this district in good years.

[morgieb]

Sweet Home Alabama.



1 (blue): 60.6% McCain. 59.4% R average. Safe R.
2 (green): 59.7% McCain. 55.9% R average. Safe R. (BTW, this is probably one of the few districts nationwide that isn't centered on a major city)
3 (purple): 52.7% McCain. 51.3% R average. 40% black population This district seems like a decent fit for a Blue Dog, Bobby Bright likely won here in 2010. Lean R.
4 (red): 51% Obama, 50.8% D average. Lean D because this is the South and most districts are pretty polarised. Like the 3rd, 40% of the population is black.
5 (yellow): 74.9% McCain, 67.4% R average. Among the safest of all Safe R districts in America.
6 (teal): 64.4% McCain, 56.3% R average. Safe R.
7 (grey): 64.6% McCain, 51.6% R average. Would've likely been held by a Democrat before 2010, so Likely R (though in practice it's Safe R).

Why split three counties between CD 5 and 7?

Oops, wrong map. I fixed that in another draft.

I think I wasn't aware of the best way to get down to a good deviation (I never let myself get over 1000 in deviation) originally.

New Map:

[muon2]

Sweet Home Alabama.



1 (blue): 60.6% McCain. 59.4% R average. Safe R.
2 (green): 59.7% McCain. 55.9% R average. Safe R. (BTW, this is probably one of the few districts nationwide that isn't centered on a major city)
3 (purple): 52.7% McCain. 51.3% R average. 40% black population This district seems like a decent fit for a Blue Dog, Bobby Bright likely won here in 2010. Lean R.
4 (red): 51% Obama, 50.8% D average. Lean D because this is the South and most districts are pretty polarised. Like the 3rd, 40% of the population is black.
5 (yellow): 74.9% McCain, 67.4% R average. Among the safest of all Safe R districts in America.
6 (teal): 64.4% McCain, 56.3% R average. Safe R.
7 (grey): 64.6% McCain, 51.6% R average. Would've likely been held by a Democrat before 2010, so Likely R (though in practice it's Safe R).

Why split three counties between CD 5 and 7?

Oops, wrong map. I fixed that in another draft.

I think I wasn't aware of the best way to get down to a good deviation (I never let myself get over 1000 in deviation) originally.

New Map:

Much better. I don't know if you caught the lengthy thread on AL last year, but your contribution would've fit in.