Was Bush's victory in New Hampshire in the 2000 general a surprise or expected?

[sg0508]

He won it by about two points and it may have been one of the states that Nader stole from Gore.  Was this victory a surprise, was it 50/50, or was a Bush win in the Granite State actually expected?

How much of the Bush win should be attributed to John McCain, if any?

Sorry...clarified in the title (2000-general election)

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Good question, I want to know about this.

[old timey villain]

At that time NH was still considered more of a swing state, as opposed to a light blue state. Bush's father won it by a landslide in 1988 and the Bush family has ties to New England. So it probably wasn't  a big shock when he won there.

And remember, in 2000 Bush was trying to running a national campaign, as opposed to a southern/rural campaign in 2004. Remember the whole "compassionate conservative" thing? That was meant to win back those moderates on the coasts that Clinton took away from Bush sr.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Also, Sununu was popular name in NH as well as Shaheen. Had it not been for them Dubya and his dad wouldn't be prez. But Gore left Ohio and campaigned in Florida, which he only should of done with Bob Graham not Lieberman. He should of ensured his turnout was stronger in Ohio, first.

[Reaganfan]

At that time NH was still considered more of a swing state, as opposed to a light blue state. Bush's father won it by a landslide in 1988 and the Bush family has ties to New England. So it probably wasn't  a big shock when he won there.

And remember, in 2000 Bush was trying to running a national campaign, as opposed to a southern/rural campaign in 2004. Remember the whole "compassionate conservative" thing? That was meant to win back those moderates on the coasts that Clinton took away from Bush sr.

...and it worked.

New Hampshire
Florida
Arkansas
Ohio
West Virginia
Kentucky
Tennessee
Arizona
Nevada
Missouri
Louisiana

Bush won 11 states...11...that had gone to Clinton in 1996. Quite a dramatic turnaround.

[Vega]

New Hampshire was always, arguably, considered a Swing State. And it still is. It's just that some candidates don't run very good campaigns in the NH.

I will say that Bush seemed for some reason to do well in the state; as he barely lost in 2004.... and Kerry was from Massachusetts.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Actually, I believe NH was closer to the center with Romney...

[Sasquatch]

It was expected.

Polling throughout 2000 showed Bush with a lead in New Hampshire. I think the bigger surprise was how close Gore came to actually winning it.

Gore not campaigning in New Hampshire is another one of the many blunders his campaign made.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

It was expected.

Polling throughout 2000 showed Bush with a lead in New Hampshire. I think the bigger surprise was how close Gore came to actually winning it.

Gore not campaigning in New Hampshire is another one of the many blunders his campaign made.

This.  Especially since Gore did so little campaigning there.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It was expected.

Polling throughout 2000 showed Bush with a lead in New Hampshire. I think the bigger surprise was how close Gore came to actually winning it.

Gore not campaigning in New Hampshire is another one of the many blunders his campaign made.

This.  Especially since Gore did so little campaigning there.

And spend less time in Florida? He spent like the final 36 hours straight in Florida, and said it would come down to one vote per precinct (which turned out to be quite an understatement). Florida is the only state that Gore outspent Bush in. Meanwhile Bush blew like $10 million in California, which Gore ignored and won by 11 points.