Greece: early election by March 2015 very likely

[Bacon King]

While the Grand Coalition has had some close calls, so far they've barely clung to their majority despite numerous defections and close votes. However, SYRIZA leader Alexis Tsipras has seemingly set a definite date on the Hellenic Parliament's premature end, announcing that his party will not support any candidate for President when the current term of Korolos Papoulias ends next year. The Greek Constitution requires the Parliament to have a three-fifths majority to elect a President, and if after several attempts no candidate has the required 180 votes, mandatory new elections are held for Parliament.

The coalition has only 153 seats, and the friendly DIMAR's 14 seats aren't enough to help. Even if they somehow got the votes from all 12 independent MP's who have left (or have been kick out of) those three parties, they'd still be one vote short of 180. PASOK and ND's options here are almost nonexistent, because ANEL has never missed an opportunity to help SYRIZA undermine the coalition, and there's no way Golden Dawn or the Communists would offer support.

The Greek Constitution requires the first vote for a new President to be at least a month before the incumbent's term ends: so a vote will be by February 12th. If the vote fails, they wait five days and vote again. If the second vote fails, there's one final vote five days after that one. If the third vote fails, the Parliament is dissolved and new elections are called. There's certainly room for shenanigans from both sides during those five day periods between votes, but if anything there will be more momentum for the government to lose support than to be gaining it.

Of course, it's entirely possible the government might fall before then, but unless there are some exceptional circumstances it looks like it will be falling about a year from now at the latest.

[Cranberry]

Does anyone have any polls? It would be interesting to see how such an election would conclude.

[Lief 🗽]

Does anyone have any polls? It would be interesting to see how such an election would conclude.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Greek_legislative_election#Opinion_polling

ND and SYRIZA are tied at 25-30%, and all the other parties are clumped together around 5-10%.

[Famous Mortimer]

Wikipedia is keeping pretty good track of the polls:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Greek_legislative_election

[Antonio the Sixth]

SYRIZA's best interest should be to let the legislature last until 2017. By that point, the government should be unpopular enough to result in a landslide. And besides, the economic outlook might be a bit better by then.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

SYRIZA's best interest should be to let the legislature last until 2017.

They can't let it last that long. The Greek parliament's term is only four years, so elections will happen in 2016 at the latest.

But your point still stands, non the less.

[NewYorkExpress]

Knowing Greece, I wouldn't be surprised to see Golden Dawn get a boost from the crackdown against them... My bet is New Democracy completely collapses, SYRIZA wins approximately 175 seats, and Golden Dawn becomes the major oppostion party (As much I hate the idea of it) with between 35 and 50 seats

[Antonio the Sixth]

Knowing Greece, I wouldn't be surprised to see Golden Dawn get a boost from the crackdown against them...

Actually (though with the caveat that polling support for this kind of parties is pretty hard), their support seems to have gone down somewhat recently. Of course, they still have plenty of time to bounce back, but if most of their leaders can be convicted and jailed, this could hinder their success a bit.

[Famous Mortimer]

Knowing Greece, I wouldn't be surprised to see Golden Dawn get a boost from the crackdown against them... My bet is New Democracy completely collapses, SYRIZA wins approximately 175 seats, and Golden Dawn becomes the major oppostion party (As much I hate the idea of it) with between 35 and 50 seats

Yeah, no chance of that happening.

I mean, I can imagine Golden Dawn becoming the main opposition party but it would be with like 15% of the vote tops because of how many parties there are.

New Democracy isn't going to collapse though. If it did, it would be replaced by an identical party with most of the same politicians and the same 25% of voters who steadfastly stick to free-marketism come hell or high water.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Knowing Greece, I wouldn't be surprised to see Golden Dawn get a boost from the crackdown against them... My bet is New Democracy completely collapses, SYRIZA wins approximately 175 seats, and Golden Dawn becomes the major oppostion party (As much I hate the idea of it) with between 35 and 50 seats

Yeah, no chance of that happening.

I mean, I can imagine Golden Dawn becoming the main opposition party but it would be with like 15% of the vote tops because of how many parties there are.

But fifteen per cent of the vote would give Golden Dawn around forty-five seats.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Excellent. Tsipras will be the man to save Europe.

[Zanas]

Excellent. Tspiras will be the man to save Europethe Universe.

Sadly, I doubt that in the end Syriza is given the ability to finish first and take the majority bonus. Capitalism won't let it happen, it has too much to potentially lose.

[Beezer]

How is Syriza going to save anyone? By returning Greece to what it was back in the early 2000s? If Greece had just gotten everything done like the Irish did, they'd be in a far better position today. Instead the constant heel dragging forced upon the country by left wing protesters mean Greece is still stuck in a recession.

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Why would a better economic outlook lead to a Syriza landslide?

[windjammer]

Well, just to be careful with Golden Dawn.

[MaxQue]

How is Syriza going to save anyone? By returning Greece to what it was back in the early 2000s? If Greece had just gotten everything done like the Irish did, they'd be in a far better position today. Instead the constant heel dragging forced upon the country by left wing protesters mean Greece is still stuck in a recession.

Well, we tried the right-wing answer to the recession, it's not working, so let's try the left-wing one?

[Beezer]

The left-wing approach got Greece into this mess in the first place. Besides, it's not like Greece actually tried the right-wing approach. Ireland and Portugal are doing far better today than Greece is. Now the former two actually just did what was required of them while Greece...eh, not so much. But hey, if Greeks think they're going to be better of with Syriza, fine with me.

[Хahar 🤔]

ANEL is one of the odder major parties in Europe today.

[Franzl]

The left-wing approach got Greece into this mess in the first place. Besides, it's not like Greece actually tried the right-wing approach. Ireland and Portugal are doing far better today than Greece is. Now the former two actually just did what was required of them while Greece...eh, not so much. But hey, if Greeks think they're going to be better of with Syriza, fine with me.

Indeed.

[ObserverIE]

The left-wing approach got Greece into this mess in the first place. Besides, it's not like Greece actually tried the right-wing approach. Ireland and Portugal are doing far better today than Greece is. Now the former two actually just did what was required of them while Greece...eh, not so much. But hey, if Greeks think they're going to be better of with Syriza, fine with me.

Proportionally, the Greeks were asked (asked?) to deflate public spending and their economy in general much more drastically than either ourselves or the Portuguese. The results have been a lot worse.

I can't comment on Portugal but, believe me, Ireland is not doing especially well except perhaps for selected parts of upper middle-class Dublin. Most of the country is still in stagnation at best or continued decline otherwise. The decline in unemployment has as much to do with the widespread emigration of people in their 20s and 30s as it has to do with an increase in (mainly part-time and/or self-employed) jobs.

[MaxQue]

Observer: If the upper-class if going well, then the country is going well. The economical measurements were made by the upper-class, for the upper-class.

[windjammer]

Wow, Germany is the best country and Germans are the best people I have ever met, but on this issue, they should just inform themselve on the situation in Greece, it's just humanly, socially and economically a disaster.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

How is Syriza going to save anyone? By returning Greece to what it was back in the early 2000s? If Greece had just gotten everything done like the Irish did, they'd be in a far better position today. Instead the constant heel dragging forced upon the country by left wing protesters mean Greece is still stuck in a recession.

You mean Greece should have basically promoted that its entire young population leave the country? That's some success....

(Of course, there is also the fact that the two situations are really not comparable for various reasons, some of which should be obvious by now...)

Observer: If the upper-class if going well, then the country is going well. The economical measurements were made by the upper-class, for the upper-class.

[PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald]

PASOK 2015!

[Famous Mortimer]

PASOK 2015!

Let me guess. You are a high school student.

[PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald]

PASOK 2015!

Let me guess. You are a high school student.

College