Greece: early election by March 2015 very likely

[Famous Mortimer]

Why the hell would you support PASOK? Just because they claim to be Greece's social democratic party? All they do is act like a fig leaf for conservative policies at this point. If you like those conservative policies, just support New Democracy. If you want more left-wing policies, SYRIZA.

[PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald]

Why the hell would you support PASOK? Just because they claim to be Greece's social democratic party? All they do is act like a fig leaf for conservative policies at this point. If you like those conservative policies, just support New Democracy. If you want more left-wing policies, SYRIZA.

While it is true that PASOK and New Democracy are generally cut from the same cloth, small differences make a big difference.

[Hash]

Mr. Pollo,

Please stop posting.

-PASOK Leader 'Hashemite'

[DC Al Fine]

Knowing Greece, I wouldn't be surprised to see Golden Dawn get a boost from the crackdown against them... My bet is New Democracy completely collapses, SYRIZA wins approximately 175 seats, and Golden Dawn becomes the major oppostion party (As much I hate the idea of it) with between 35 and 50 seats

Why do you think New Democracy will collapse?

[Vega]

SYRIZA would be excellent.

[NewYorkExpress]

Knowing Greece, I wouldn't be surprised to see Golden Dawn get a boost from the crackdown against them... My bet is New Democracy completely collapses, SYRIZA wins approximately 175 seats, and Golden Dawn becomes the major oppostion party (As much I hate the idea of it) with between 35 and 50 seats

Why do you think New Democracy will collapse?

That's what's generally been happening to every leader/party over there. They don't like Merkel, and they'll punish her by taking it out on the government she's supporting.

[Zanas]

Knowing Greece, I wouldn't be surprised to see Golden Dawn get a boost from the crackdown against them... My bet is New Democracy completely collapses, SYRIZA wins approximately 175 seats, and Golden Dawn becomes the major oppostion party (As much I hate the idea of it) with between 35 and 50 seats

Why do you think New Democracy will collapse?

That's what's generally been happening to every leader/party over there. They don't like Merkel, and they'll punish her by taking it out on the government she's supporting.

You really don't have a clue about Greece or what's going on there, do you ?

[NewYorkExpress]

Knowing Greece, I wouldn't be surprised to see Golden Dawn get a boost from the crackdown against them... My bet is New Democracy completely collapses, SYRIZA wins approximately 175 seats, and Golden Dawn becomes the major oppostion party (As much I hate the idea of it) with between 35 and 50 seats

Why do you think New Democracy will collapse?

That's what's generally been happening to every leader/party over there. They don't like Merkel, and they'll punish her by taking it out on the government she's supporting.

You really don't have a clue about Greece or what's going on there, do you ?

very little, I admit

[Velasco]

Ireland and Portugal are doing far better today than Greece is.

As far as I know -at least from what some Portuguese have told me-, young people is ready to leave that country which is doing far better than Greece. What a coincidence, I met some in Berlin last year. The situation in Portugal only looks slightly better if compared with Greece, but even Spain is somewhat less screwed. I doubt Portuguese people is feeling gratitude towards Pedro Passos Coelho; I can't imagine a most unpopular PM right now.

PASOK 2015!

Great slogan. Let us give praise to the Lord.

[H. Ross Peron]

PASOK 2015!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

How on Earth can anyone get excited about PASOK?

Even before their collapse and subservience to ND PASOK wasn't so much a political party as it was an ultra-corrupt patronage machine. The party never had a real consistent ideology in practice and only ended up as vaguely center-left due to its dominance over some unions and need to placate them. At this point PASOK basically IS ND, so any reason to support them out of pragmatism is also gone.

I remember Boris once said the Canadian Conservative Party and Australian Labour Party tie for the least rhetorically entertaining party in the world, and each party's blandness is exactly the reason you never see people incredibly enthusiastic or hackish about them. PASOK isn't exactly as bland, but they also have less reason to be enthusiastic or excited about even before they basically became New Democracy Jr. Now that they are that there is basically no reason to support them instead of ND unless you think you actually get Moderate Hero points or whatever.

[ObserverIE]

Ireland and Portugal are doing far better today than Greece is.

As far as I know -at least from what some Portuguese have told me-, young people is ready to leave that country which is doing far better than Greece. What a coincidence, I met some in Berlin last year. The situation in Portugal only looks slightly better if compared with Greece, but even Spain is somewhat less screwed. I doubt Portuguese people is feeling gratitude towards Pedro Passos Coelho; I can't imagine a most unpopular PM right now.

To briefly illustrate the difference in degree between Greece's situation and that of Ireland and Portugal:

From Paul Krugman's blog:

[justfollowingtheelections]

The left-wing approach got Greece into this mess in the first place. Besides, it's not like Greece actually tried the right-wing approach. Ireland and Portugal are doing far better today than Greece is. Now the former two actually just did what was required of them while Greece...eh, not so much. But hey, if Greeks think they're going to be better of with Syriza, fine with me.

I would advice you stop reading Bild, Focus and similar rags that have done a really good job convincing you that Greece is dragging you down (kind of like how your great grandparents were convinced that the Jews were responsible for all of your country's problem).  Also, it might shock you after everything you have heard about Greece, but Greek people don't hate Germans.

[Hamster]

I wasn't sure about the forum culture about starting new threads vs. continuing old ones, but I figured recent events owe this comment a new response.

Knowing Greece, I wouldn't be surprised to see Golden Dawn get a boost from the crackdown against them... My bet is New Democracy completely collapses, SYRIZA wins approximately 175 seats, and Golden Dawn becomes the major oppostion party (As much I hate the idea of it) with between 35 and 50 seats

Why do you think New Democracy will collapse?

A series of leaks have implicated the New Democracy leadership in cooperating with Golden Dawn in minimizing the reach of the investigations into Golden Dawn's activities, which are ongoing. One particularly damaging leak alleges that the ND leadership threatened to offer GD to join them in coalition after the June 2012 elections if PASOK didn't play ball. Right now, there are serious questions over whether this Greek government will even survive until March 2015. Judging by certain statements coming out of PASOK, particularly from Papandreou, they may withdraw from the government and cause its collapse.

[Famous Mortimer]

I had recently heard just the opposite, that New Democracy was pressuring prosecutors to exaggerate charges against Golden Dawn and eventually when those charges go nowhere, it's probably going to hurt New Democracy/help Golden Dawn.

Also, there's a new stupid moderate hero party called The River.

[Hamster]

I had recently heard just the opposite, that New Democracy was pressuring prosecutors to exaggerate charges against Golden Dawn and eventually when those charges go nowhere, it's probably going to hurt New Democracy/help Golden Dawn.

Vice has an ok article on the subject.

(Still can't post hyperlinks): vice (dot) com/en_uk/read/greece-baltakos-kasidiaris-transcripts

Also, there's a new stupid moderate hero party called The River.

To Potami is a center-left party, a middle ground of sorts between SYRIZA and PASOK. Why do you call them a "stupid moderate hero party?

[Bacon King]

I had recently heard just the opposite, that New Democracy was pressuring prosecutors to exaggerate charges against Golden Dawn and eventually when those charges go nowhere, it's probably going to hurt New Democracy/help Golden Dawn.

Vice has an ok article on the subject.

(Still can't post hyperlinks): vice (dot) com/en_uk/read/greece-baltakos-kasidiaris-transcripts

www.vice.com/en_uk/read/greece-baltakos-kasidiaris-transcripts

You must be logged in to read this quote.

To Potami is a center-left party, a middle ground of sorts between SYRIZA and PASOK. Why do you call them a "stupid moderate hero party?
[/quote]

To Potami is essentially DIMAR without taint from association with PASOK/ND

"moderate hero" is a forum injoke that basically means "someone who holds carefully triangulated median views for the sake of appearing reasonable to both sides" and/or building your politics on the golden mean fallacy

Welcome to the forum!

[republicanbayer]

According to german tv news, greece is facing a reelection in a few months if syriza wins the EP election, which is likely.

[swl]

If the results of the European elections were applied to the legislative elections, the allocation of seats would be the following (I took it from another forum):

SYRIZA : 130 seats
ND : 70 seats
Golden Dawn : 28 seats
PASOK : 24 seats
Potami : 20 seats
KKE : 18 seats
ANEL : 10 seats

If that happens, I would bet on a coalition SYRIZA+PASOK, or maybe SYRIZA+Potami if the latter keeps rising.

[Bacon King]

If the results of the European elections were applied to the legislative elections, the allocation of seats would be the following (I took it from another forum):

SYRIZA : 130 seats
ND : 70 seats
Golden Dawn : 28 seats
PASOK : 24 seats
Potami : 20 seats
KKE : 18 seats
ANEL : 10 seats

If that happens, I would bet on a coalition SYRIZA+PASOK, or maybe SYRIZA+Potami if the latter keeps rising.

I ran the numbers myself earlier and my figures are identical except SYRIZA has one more seat (at the expense of ND).

DIMAR is the obvious coalition partner, if they were to pass the threshold. PASOK and/or Potami would realistically be the junior partner(s). Given the extent of their cooperation in opposition, I honestly would not be surprised at all if ANEL gave Tsipras tacit support from outside the government.

[Famous Mortimer]

If the results of the European elections were applied to the legislative elections, the allocation of seats would be the following (I took it from another forum):

SYRIZA : 130 seats
ND : 70 seats
Golden Dawn : 28 seats
PASOK : 24 seats
Potami : 20 seats
KKE : 18 seats
ANEL : 10 seats

If that happens, I would bet on a coalition SYRIZA+PASOK, or maybe SYRIZA+Potami if the latter keeps rising.

I ran the numbers myself earlier and my figures are identical except SYRIZA has one more seat (at the expense of ND).

DIMAR is the obvious coalition partner, if they were to pass the threshold. PASOK and/or Potami would realistically be the junior partner(s). Given the extent of their cooperation in opposition, I honestly would not be surprised at all if ANEL gave Tsipras tacit support from outside the government.

DIMAR are the ideal coalition partner for no one, since they are only concerned with showboating.

[Bacon King]

If the results of the European elections were applied to the legislative elections, the allocation of seats would be the following (I took it from another forum):

SYRIZA : 130 seats
ND : 70 seats
Golden Dawn : 28 seats
PASOK : 24 seats
Potami : 20 seats
KKE : 18 seats
ANEL : 10 seats

If that happens, I would bet on a coalition SYRIZA+PASOK, or maybe SYRIZA+Potami if the latter keeps rising.

I ran the numbers myself earlier and my figures are identical except SYRIZA has one more seat (at the expense of ND).

DIMAR is the obvious coalition partner, if they were to pass the threshold. PASOK and/or Potami would realistically be the junior partner(s). Given the extent of their cooperation in opposition, I honestly would not be surprised at all if ANEL gave Tsipras tacit support from outside the government.

DIMAR are the ideal coalition partner for no one, since they are only concerned with showboating.

I would argue that KKE, XA, ANEL, and PASOK are all more concerned with showboating than DIMAR. DIMAR was founded by splitters from Syriza so there's a historical relationship there, and it seems apparent IMO they immediately regretted joining the coalition right after it happened. In the recent municipal elections, they ran on tickets jointly with SYRIZA in just about as many locales as they ran with PASOK, possibly more.

[windjammer]

DIMAR, potami and PASOK (yeah PASOK ), would be possibly coalition partners with SYRIZA.

KKE, impossible.

[Famous Mortimer]

I suspect if left-wing parties including the KKE had a majority, KKE would give in and join that coalition.

They didn't join SYRIZA the first time SYRIZA came in second because they still would have needed outside support from Independent Greeks or Golden Dawn.

[MaxQue]

I suspect if left-wing parties including the KKE had a majority, KKE would give in and join that coalition.

They didn't join SYRIZA the first time SYRIZA came in second because they still would have needed outside support from Independent Greeks or Golden Dawn.

No. According to KKE, SYRIZA is a bourgeois capitalist party, as bad than PASOK or ND.