Quebec: April 7, 2014

[lilTommy]

More candidate news: fat doctor running as official PLQ, Desjardins in Groulx, Houda-Pepin as an indie PLQ.

regardless of how you see the PQ, they sure do a great job at mobilizing young militants (under 30) to be active and run for the party, and not just as poteau's: Desjardins has a real shot of winning Groulx, it was held in 2008 by the PQ, seems top be tossed about. Anyway my point, the PQ has MNA's like Traversy, Bureau-Blouin, Turcotte, former recent MNA's Guillaume Tremblay and Alexis Wawanoloath. I give them credit for that.

[RogueBeaver]

Appropriate considering how they started out, also gave us our youngest premier. PLQ has never thought that way and I doubt they ever will.

[DL]

Appropriate considering how they started out, also gave us our youngest premier. PLQ has never thought that way and I doubt they ever will.

I thought Robert Bourassa of the PLQ was the youngest ever premier of Quebec. He was only 36 when first elected in 1970.

[RogueBeaver]

Oops: brainfart. But PLQ is still lousy on under-30 recruitment.

[RogueBeaver]

Debate will be on the 20th.

[MaxQue]

Oops: brainfart. But PLQ is still lousy on under-30 recruitment.

According to the Assembly website, there is 9 MNA under-40 at the time of last election. 5 PQ, 2 CAQ, 2 PLQ. If we settle at under-30, it's 3, all PQ.

Those are:
Léo Bureau-Blouin (PQ, Laval-des-Rapides, 22 years)
Mathieu Traversy (PQ, Terrebonne, 29 years)
Dave Turcotte (PQ, Saint-Jean, 30 years)
Alexandre Cloutier (PQ, Lac-Saint-Jean, 36 years)
Pascal Bérubé (PQ, Matane-Matapédia, 39 years)
Karine Vallières (PLQ, Richmond, replaced her father as MNA, 36 years later this month)
Marc Tanguay (PLQ, Bourassa-Sauvé, 40-41 years)
Sylvain Lévesque (CAQ, Vanier-Les Rivières, 40 years)
Sébastien Schneeberger (CAQ, Drummond--Bois-Francs, 40 years)

[RogueBeaver]

Rapid riser list: I'd include PMJ, Bourassa and Sauvé. Would be fantastic to see someone rise that quickly today, in either party.

[RogueBeaver]

More Laurentian nonsense from Den Tandt. Marois' win sets in motion a referendum, ROC panic, and the polarizing Trudeau rather than popular Mulcair as "Captain Canada."

In an otherwise decent Star article: Marois will "win the nine extra seats the party needs for a majority in the 125-seat National Assembly will be won on the backs of Quebec’s religious minorities, anglophones and other groups that make up the fringes of the province’s patchwork." More like "suburban Francophones in the couronne."

[RogueBeaver]

New Leger out: 37/35/15/8 topline, PQ leads by 22 among Francophones. No word yet on the actual Francophone number. My guess is high 40s, so comfortable majority or a little less depending on SFL (Shy Francophone Liberal) effect.

[RogueBeaver]

TCTC projects PQ 62, PLQ 56 with those numbers. My bet's still on a PQ majority.

[Hatman 🍁]

I made a map using the crop numbers, but now I have to start over. Should've known there'd be a poll released.

[Smid]

I made a map using the crop numbers, but now I have to start over. Should've known there'd be a poll released.

Do you have my base map? I'm pretty sure it's up to date.

[Hatman 🍁]

I made a map using the crop numbers, but now I have to start over. Should've known there'd be a poll released.

Do you have my base map? I'm pretty sure it's up to date.

Yes, I have it, and it's the one I used.

[RogueBeaver]

National Assembly has been dissolved.

[Hatman 🍁]

Leger poll regional breaks (change from last election, calculations by me)

Montreal CMA:
PLQ: 40 (+6)
PQ: 35 (+5)
CAQ: 12 (-12)
QS: 8 (n/c)
PVQ: 3 (+2)
ON: 1 (-1)
Oth: 1 (n/c)

Quebec City CMA:
PLQ: 32 (+1)
PQ: 31 (+9)
CAQ: 24 (-14)
QS: 8 (+3)
PVQ: 2 (+2)
ON: 2 (n/c)
Oth: 1 (-1)

Other regions:
PQ: 40 (+4)
PLQ: 29 (n/c)
CAQ: 17 (-10)
QS: 8 (+4)
PVQ: 2 (+1)
ON: 1 (-1)
Oth: 2  (+1)

[lilTommy]

Leger poll regional breaks (change from last election, calculations by me)

Montreal CMA:
PLQ: 40 (+6)
PQ: 35 (+5)
CAQ: 12 (-12)
QS: 8 (n/c)
PVQ: 3 (+2)
ON: 1 (-1)
Oth: 1 (n/c)

Quebec City CMA:
PLQ: 32 (+1)
PQ: 31 (+9)
CAQ: 24 (-14)
QS: 8 (+3)
PVQ: 2 (+2)
ON: 2 (n/c)
Oth: 1 (-1)

Other regions:
PQ: 40 (+4)
PLQ: 29 (n/c)
CAQ: 17 (-10)
QS: 8 (+4)
PVQ: 2 (+1)
ON: 1 (-1)
Oth: 2  (+1)

So CAQ is going to lose a large number of seats... but who is most likely to benefit from the loss of CAQ vote; PLQ in MTL? or overall the PQ everywhere?
Interesting to see QS growing its support outside MTL

[Hatman 🍁]

I will be releasing my numbers soon, be patient

I just took the vote compass: http://www.cbc.ca/elections/quebecvotes2014/features/view/vote-compass

PVQ: 68%
ON: 55% :
QS: 52%
Cons: 46% :
PLQ: 46%
PQ: 43%
CAQ: 39%

According to the chart, QS is the most left wing party, but only slightly more left than the Greens.

[MaxQue]

I will be releasing my numbers soon, be patient

I just took the vote compass: http://www.cbc.ca/elections/quebecvotes2014/features/view/vote-compass

PVQ: 68%
ON: 55% :
QS: 52%
Cons: 46% :
PLQ: 46%
PQ: 43%
CAQ: 39%

According to the chart, QS is the most left wing party, but only slightly more left than the Greens.

Alex Tyrrell, the new Green leader (and former federal NDP candidate), transformed the Green party in an "ecosocialist" party, according to his own words.

[MaxQue]

I will be releasing my numbers soon, be patient

I just took the vote compass: http://www.cbc.ca/elections/quebecvotes2014/features/view/vote-compass

I got
PVQ: 73%
QS: 69%
ON: 66%
PLQ: 56%
PQ: 55%
CAQ: 51%
PCQ: 39%

[Hatman 🍁]

I will be releasing my numbers soon, be patient

I just took the vote compass: http://www.cbc.ca/elections/quebecvotes2014/features/view/vote-compass

PVQ: 68%
ON: 55% :
QS: 52%
Cons: 46% :
PLQ: 46%
PQ: 43%
CAQ: 39%

According to the chart, QS is the most left wing party, but only slightly more left than the Greens.

Alex Tyrrell, the new Green leader (and former federal NDP candidate), transformed the Green party in an "ecosocialist" party, according to his own words.

The only provincial Green party worth voting for. I think I'd still vote UCQ if they were running.

My support would go:

1) UCQ
2) PVQ
3) QS
4) PLQ
5) CAQ
6) ON
7) PQ

[Njall]

I will be releasing my numbers soon, be patient

I just took the vote compass: http://www.cbc.ca/elections/quebecvotes2014/features/view/vote-compass

PVQ: 64%
PLQ: 63%
ON: 56%
CAQ: 53%
PCQ: 47%
PQ: 46%
QS: 46%

[lilTommy]

About what I thought, especially since the PVQ is more "eco-socialist" now... i'm less sovereigntist then QS, that should explain that... would have loved to see UCQ there just to see how i would fall in line with them

GRN-75%
QS-73%
ON-66%
PQ-55%
QLP-50%
CAQ-45%
CPQ-40%

[the506]

PCQ = 73%
PLQ = 70%
CAQ = 65%
PQ = 47%
PVQ = 45%
ON = 35%
QS = 28%

I'd probably vote CAQ though. Not as corrupt.

[Hash]

Greenies 66%
QS 55%
Mafia 54%
ON 52%
PQ 51%
Cack 49%
nonexistent joke Tory party 41%

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are my week 1 projections: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/03/2014-quebec-provincial-election-week-1.html

You may begin your criticisms now.