Quebec: April 7, 2014

[Hatman 🍁]

Thanks, Hatman.

Is it provincial only, or will there be a federal vote question?  I would love to see a cross-tab of federal vs. provincial support in Quebec.

It's part of a large federal poll, so it's possible we'll be publishing a cross of federal vote intention. (Federal numbers and a provincial Ontario numbers will be out next week according to Frank's Twitter).

I'm not working on the poll, so there probably won't be any regional breaks (unless they ask me tomorrow). But the provincial vs. federal vote intention will be interesting.

[adma]

Re QS in Montreal: we're also getting close to a 2011 NDP-esque "tipping point" there, so don't get *too* surprised at a bumper crop inclusive of Rosemont...

[Hatman 🍁]

For now, the Ipsos poll where QS was at 17% on the island is just an outlier. Neither Leger nor Forum has shown anything there. Not discounting a Rosemont win, though. QS can win anywhere that PM won last year:

[Hatman 🍁]

My Week 5 projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/04/2014-quebec-provincial-election-week-5.html

[RogueBeaver]

Marois' final days. This is really like '03 or a bit farther back, '66: flank speed into the minefield.

Couillard's legal Charter advice.

Maltais believes NON would win another referendum.

Since the PQ became a governing party, this could be their worst campaign aside from '85. Marois knows about that one: she was washed away in the Gritnami.

[Cassius]

Sorry to be bothersome with rather simplistic questions (unfortunately, the remnants of GCSE French aren't enough for me to be able to properly decipher French language articles ), but what are the reasons for the PQ's seeming collapse, especially since (as far as I'm aware) they were in the lead at the start of the campaign. I know (think) the furore over this 'charter of values' is one, but are there others?

[RogueBeaver]

Peladeau's sovereignty fist-pump flash polarized the electorate along sovereigntist/federalist lines, when we Quebecers are strongly opposed to another referendum. Soft nationalists bolted to the CAQ and Liberals while left-wing sovereigntists disappointed at the PQ's rightward drift went QS. Once Plan A vaporized they had nothing left and made it up as they went along, becoming increasingly paranoid and desperate. The initial strategy was sound, execution completely blown.

[Cassius]

Peladeau's sovereignty fist-pump flash polarized the electorate along sovereigntist/federalist lines, when we Quebecers are strongly opposed to another referendum. Soft nationalists bolted to the CAQ and Liberals while left-wing sovereigntists disappointed at the PQ's rightward drift went QS. Once Plan A vaporized they had nothing left and made it up as they went along, becoming increasingly paranoid and desperate. The initial strategy was sound, execution completely blown.

Thanks. Quebec politics is quite confusing (and yet so interesting) to me, being used to the good old 'centre- left party, liberal party, centre-right party' political split that I'm more familiar with.

So, yeah, this was basically a snap election call gone horribly awry...

[EPG]

Sorry to be bothersome with rather simplistic questions (unfortunately, the remnants of GCSE French aren't enough for me to be able to properly decipher French language articles ), but what are the reasons for the PQ's seeming collapse, especially since (as far as I'm aware) they were in the lead at the start of the campaign. I know (think) the furore over this 'charter of values' is one, but are there others?

The cause is Pierre-Karl Péladeau's PQ candidacy, and Pauline Marois, who brought him in. Here is a loose translation of an article for you:

Great article from Hebert on how the PQ engineered their own demise. I'm sure Landry can console Marois.

1. Marois recruited Péladeau as a candidate; to calm the left, this was proclaimed as being based on sovereigntism.
a. Two-thirds of voters don't want a referendum, and this seems to accelerate one;
b. The PQ grassroots were delighted, confirming the fears of those two-thirds of voters;
c. CAQ federalists are scared and go back to the PLQ;
d. QS wins some ground among progressives who distrust Péladeau.

2. Marois then rules out a referendum next term.
a. Sovereigntists are no longer motivated to vote PQ this time;
b. Some go to the CAQ;
c. Progressives who moved from PQ to QS are still alienated by Péladeau and now don't even have a referendum to tempt them back.

3. The Charter: PQ people made some unseemly attacks on Muslims (e.g. annexing swimming pools) and weren't really called out by their leaders. The PQ threatened to use the notwithstanding clause to guarantee the Charter's legality despite previously promising that it would be compliant with the Charter of Rights and Freedoms, and announced that religious clothing would be grounds for dismissal. Polls predicted that those two conditions would make the Charter less popular.
a. Some people were embarrassed to support the Charter after the attacks, specifically those who would otherwise have supported it in the name of male-female equality.
b. More moderate Charter supporters turn off the PQ's idea in favour of the CAQ line.
c. Anti-PQ-Charter sovereigntists favour QS even more strongly.
d. The PLQ vote is also firmed up.

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, that's the detailed version.

[Hatman 🍁]

EKOS poll is out: PLQ 40, PQ 26, CAQ 21, QS 10. It's behind a firewall at ipolitics right now, but will be up on the EKOS site tonight.

I didn't work on any regional numbers today, so there probably wont be anything in the poll.

[Hatman 🍁]

We did go with regional breaks, but they're based on area code, so very easy to code for our programmer.

EKOS poll

PLQ: 40.0
PQ: 26.3
CAQ: 21.0
QS: 9.6
Oth: 3.1

450
PLQ: 30.3
PQ: 28.8
CAQ: 27.4
QS: 9.2
Oth: 4.4

514
PLQ: 47.5
PQ: 20.3
QS: 15.3
CAQ: 14.4

418
PLQ: 38.7
PQ: 29.1
CAQ: 23.2
QS: 5.7
Oth: 3.4

819
PLQ: 46.4
PQ: 26.6
CAQ: 17.2
QS: 8.2
Oth: 1.5

[Krago]

Quebec area code map

http://www.cnac.ca/area_code_maps/southern_quebec_area_code_map_highres.png

Here's my comparison between the EKOS poll and the 2012 results, as best as I can divide the ridings by area code.

Quebec
2012:  PQ 31.9, LIB 31.2, CAQ 27.1, QS 6.0, AUT 3.8
2014:  PQ 26.3, LIB 40.0, CAQ 21.0, QS 9.6, AUT 3.1

514 Montreal, excl. Laval
2012:  PQ 23.9, LIB 44.9, CAQ 15.4, QS 11.9, AUT 3.9
2014:  PQ 20.3, LIB 47.5, CAQ 14.4, QS 15.3, AUT 2.5

450 Couronne, incl. Laval
2012: PQ 36.5, LIB 23.8, CAQ 31.7, QS 4.5, AUT 3.5
2014: PQ 28.8, LIB 30.3, CAQ 27.4, QS 9.2, AUT 4.4

819 West and Central Quebec
2012: PQ 32.9, LIB 32.5, CAQ 24.9, QS 5.0, AUT 4.7
2014: PQ 26.6, LIB 46.4, CAQ 17.2, QS 8.2, AUT 1.5

418 Saguenay and Eastern Quebec
2012: PQ 31.0, LIB 30.2, CAQ 31.1, QS 4.2, AUT 3.5
2014: PQ 29.1, LIB 38.7, CAQ 23.2, QS 5.7, AUT 3.4

[Krago]

New Leger Poll: Lib 38%, PQ 29%, CAQ 23%, QS 9%

[Antonio the Sixth]

LOL, epic fail is epic.

[DC Al Fine]

Holy crap, the CAQ might actually do ok.

[RogueBeaver]

That's on the minority/majority threshold, right now a razor-thin Liberal majority. PLQ needs more swingers and CAQ to get a comfortable (70+ seats) majority. TCTC has 66/47/10/2.

[RogueBeaver]

Other reminders: 25% could still switch, 15 ridings by 1000 votes or less, Leger stopped polling Thursday. So if something happens this weekend...

[RogueBeaver]

Interesting from the age crosstabs: PLQ leads in all age groups. 37% among 18-24, with the PQ 4th among those voters. PLQ-CAQ tie among those 25-34, PQ third. Even among seniors PLQ leads. I didn't know this, but in '86 a leading political scientist predicted the PQ would be a generational party lasting 30-35 years.

[RogueBeaver]

TCTC: Marois, Legault, Maltais, De Courcy, PKP all in tight races. Who will lose? Marois was flotsam in the '85 Gritnami, so it wouldn't be the first time.

Speaking of said Gritnami, I think PMJ has an excellent claim to the last laugh. He and his kangaroos can say "We've been telling you so for 30 years."

[Cassius]

Apparently an Angus Reid poll has the Liberals at 39, the PQ at 27 and the CAQ at 25. Could the CAQ actually do rather well for itself?

[RogueBeaver]

CROP should be out soon, and that will be the final poll. Much like Joe Clark, I expect Marois will be a blip on the historical radar screen. She did achieve her lifelong goal of being our first female premier. Shortest term of any elected premier since Parizeau.

[RogueBeaver]

These charts are what should scare the PQ. From our polling guru, U de M's Claire Durand.

[Hatman 🍁]

Quebec area code map

http://www.cnac.ca/area_code_maps/southern_quebec_area_code_map_highres.png

Here's my comparison between the EKOS poll and the 2012 results, as best as I can divide the ridings by area code.

Quebec
2012:  PQ 31.9, LIB 31.2, CAQ 27.1, QS 6.0, AUT 3.8
2014:  PQ 26.3, LIB 40.0, CAQ 21.0, QS 9.6, AUT 3.1

514 Montreal, excl. Laval
2012:  PQ 23.9, LIB 44.9, CAQ 15.4, QS 11.9, AUT 3.9
2014:  PQ 20.3, LIB 47.5, CAQ 14.4, QS 15.3, AUT 2.5

450 Couronne, incl. Laval
2012: PQ 36.5, LIB 23.8, CAQ 31.7, QS 4.5, AUT 3.5
2014: PQ 28.8, LIB 30.3, CAQ 27.4, QS 9.2, AUT 4.4

819 West and Central Quebec
2012: PQ 32.9, LIB 32.5, CAQ 24.9, QS 5.0, AUT 4.7
2014: PQ 26.6, LIB 46.4, CAQ 17.2, QS 8.2, AUT 1.5

418 Saguenay and Eastern Quebec
2012: PQ 31.0, LIB 30.2, CAQ 31.1, QS 4.2, AUT 3.5
2014: PQ 29.1, LIB 38.7, CAQ 23.2, QS 5.7, AUT 3.4

Which ridings did you use for 418 and 819?

CROP should be out soon, and that will be the final poll. Much like Joe Clark, I expect Marois will be a blip on the historical radar screen. She did achieve her lifelong goal of being our first female premier. Shortest term of any elected premier since Parizeau.

Lately, there've been poll releases the night before elections, so there may be more to come.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is hilarious.