Quebec: April 7, 2014

[the506]

While Ontario gets most of the headlines today, the Quebec poll-by-poll results quietly came out:
http://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/english/provincial/election-results/general-elections.php?e=74#e

Still no maps though....

[MaxQue]

While Ontario gets most of the headlines today, the Quebec poll-by-poll results quietly came out:
http://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/english/provincial/election-results/general-elections.php?e=74#e

Still no maps though....

Also, the format is very different than the one used since mid-00's.

This is not a big file anymore, there is instead 125 files (one for each riding).
Useful: when a poll was merged in another one, they write with which one it was merged.
Slightly annoying: The parties of the candidates aren't written anymore, only their name.

Also, to my astonishment, my voting section voted for PQ.

PQ: 56 votes (36%)
PLQ: 44 votes (28%)
CAQ: 43 votes (28%)
QS: 9 votes (6%)
ON: 3 votes (2%)
Conservatives: 0 votes

Last time:
PQ: 88 votes (41%)
PLQ: 62 votes (29%)
CAQ: 51 votes (24%)
QS: 6 votes (3%)
ON: 5 votes (2%)
PVQ: 4 votes (2%)

It's like if it forgot to swing in any meaningful way.

[Hatman 🍁]

Small swing, still. Swings at the poll level can be weird and erratic.

[Poirot]

I think poll by poll maps are created with the results of votes cast on voting day because for advance voting they use different poll numbers.

If that is the case, could there be some meaningful difference in some poll by poll map ridings. Considering 19% of eligible voters voted before elction day and the total final voter turnout was 71%, that would mean a quarter of votes were cast before elections day.

From Radio-Canada, a list of ridings with a different winner if only votes cast on elections day are considered. The party with more votes on elections day is on the right, the winner of the election is at left with the riding name.
   
http://ici.radio-canada.ca/sujet/elections-quebec-2014/2014/05/20/001-vote-anticipation-chiffres-directeur-general-elections.shtml

You must be logged in to read this quote.

For example, the Liberal party won Portneuf by 1059 votes but they received less votes than CAQ on election day; they won based on the about 2000 lead on votes cast before election day.

http://infoportneuf.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=6369:michel-matte-lemporte-au-vote-par-anticipation&catid=18:actualites&Itemid=9

In La Prairie the Liberal candidate won the riding by 435 votes. CAQ got 924 more votes than Lib on election day but Lib got 1359 more votes than CAQ in advance voting (CAQ finished third in advance voting).
http://www.lereflet.qc.ca/2014/05/26/le-7-avril-la-caq-a-gagne-dans-la-prairie-et-sanguinet

Are poll by poll maps made with numbers showing CAQ with 924 more votes even if they lost. Would the maps look a bit different in colours.