Quebec: April 7, 2014

[Marokai Backbeat]

Considering that the PQ's reputation for being maybe just a little bit racist has clearly damaged it electorally over the years (even if it hasn't cost votes directly, it sure helps to drive up minority turnout for the PLQ), it's weird that they don't seem to have done anything to address it. Of course that's partly because... you know... but you'd think they would at least have learned to be a bit more... presentable.

It is amazing to me how little they seem to care about broadening their appeal. Pretty much the only reason I keep thinking the PLQ will end up winning this is because the PQ seems so insistent on pissing different people off at random. It's like they're determined to find a way to lose.

[RogueBeaver]

The conflict between their immigration and "identity" policies have always been rather glaring.

[MaxQue]

Considering that the PQ's reputation for being maybe just a little bit racist has clearly damaged it electorally over the years (even if it hasn't cost votes directly, it sure helps to drive up minority turnout for the PLQ), it's weird that they don't seem to have done anything to address it. Of course that's partly because... you know... but you'd think they would at least have learned to be a bit more... presentable.

It is amazing to me how little they seem to care about broadening their appeal. Pretty much the only reason I keep thinking the PLQ will end up winning this is because the PQ seems so insistent on pissing different people off at random. It's like they're determined to find a way to lose.

Well, the issue is than their base is very diverse and various measures are needed to keep the base happy.

It's the issue when a party is built around electability, not ideology.

[Hatman 🍁]

1. A sliver of leftwing PQ voters disgusted by the fact that Peladeau is a rightwing fanatic will shift to Quebec Solidaire...it may not give QS any additional seats but just a couple of percentage points here and there can cost the PQ some marginal seats.

2. By making such a ringing speech in favour of complete independence for Quebec and so much media speculation on another referendum - all of a sudden the election is no longer about the charter, its no longer about the economy. Its now all about "do you want another referendum?" and "Do you want Quebec to become and independent country?"...this is very dangerous ground for the PQ - they cannot win an election just with the votes of out and out separatists. The CAQ party voters are according to polls over 80% NON voters in a hypothetical referendum and are also way more likely to have the Liberals as tbheir second choice than the PQ...if the election is all about sovereignty i think the CAQ vote will meltdown and go mostly to the Liberals.

These two ingredients could add up to a PLQ win. You heard it here.

1. perhaps an additional seat with Sainte-Marie Saint-Jacques. It was probably QS next target anyway. Radio-Canada and TVA are in the riding so there could be some media workers unhappy with PKP's presence. At city level Projet Montréal did well here.

2. I think I will tune out. It has become a debate on if Péladeau should sell his company's shares and a possible future referendum. I don't know if it will last three weeks. Usually the PLQ plays the referendum threat card in the last week of campaign. Supposedly issues important to people are economy and health care.   

I think Laurier-Dorion would be the next QS target, that's where their new co-spokesperson is running.

[DL]

Laurier-Dorion contains to many allophones to go anything but PLQ - it largely overlaps Trudeau's Papineau riding...St. Marie-St. Jacques is more analogous to Mercier and is a better fit for QS

[Hatman 🍁]

Papineau did go BQ once

Why would QS run their spokesperson in the riding if they didn't think they could win it? Why wouldn't they run him in Ste Marie-St Jacques?

[Poirot]

I've said next target because when I look at last election results QS received roughly 25% vote share behind the leader at 35%. In Laurier-Dorion they would have to surpass the Liberals (so get a result of over 35% unless they convert Liberals).

In Sainte-Marie Saint-Jacques it's a race between QS and PQ so if QS can make PQ votes switch the gap with first place can close more quickly. (would be possible to win with 31%)

[MaxQue]

Laurier-Dorion contains to many allophones to go anything but PLQ - it largely overlaps Trudeau's Papineau riding...St. Marie-St. Jacques is more analogous to Mercier and is a better fit for QS

Demography is not helping them. The Allophones are in the Parc-Extension part.
But there is intense growth in the other path of the riding, Villeray (which is very Plateau-like and very opposed to Liberals).

Also, the St-Michel part which is in Papineau federal riding (and heavily Allophone) is in Viau, I think.

[Poirot]

I took the mother tongue statistics in ridings (didn't know if it's better or to take language spoken at home). In Laurier-Dorion it's 46% French, 46% other, 6% English. In Sainte-Marie - St-Jacques it's 67% French, 20% other, 12% English.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ste Marie - St. Jacques would've been a better choice for Fonticiella, but him running in Laurier-Dorion  puts that riding in play.  Both Khadir and David received an average of 8% boosts in each election they were leader, and 1/3 of that boost came from Liberal voters. 

[MaxQue]

Ste Marie - St. Jacques would've been a better choice for Fonticiella, but him running in Laurier-Dorion  puts that riding in play.  Both Khadir and David received an average of 8% boosts in each election they were leader, and 1/3 of that boost came from Liberal voters. 

And running in Ste-Marie--St-Jacques would have required to remove Manon Massé as their candidate (at every election since that 2005 by-election, the first ever contested by QS).

[Hatman 🍁]

Ste Marie - St. Jacques would've been a better choice for Fonticiella, but him running in Laurier-Dorion  puts that riding in play.  Both Khadir and David received an average of 8% boosts in each election they were leader, and 1/3 of that boost came from Liberal voters. 

And running in Ste-Marie--St-Jacques would have required to remove Manon Massé as their candidate (at every election since that 2005 by-election, the first ever contested by QS).

True, and she couldn't be the male co-spokesperson.

[lilTommy]

Ste Marie - St. Jacques would've been a better choice for Fonticiella, but him running in Laurier-Dorion  puts that riding in play.  Both Khadir and David received an average of 8% boosts in each election they were leader, and 1/3 of that boost came from Liberal voters. 

And running in Ste-Marie--St-Jacques would have required to remove Manon Massé as their candidate (at every election since that 2005 by-election, the first ever contested by QS).

QS feeling emboldened is probably targeting both; they are in reality there two best shots at winning, SMSJ first since they cam ein second but both are targets since they were only about 10% behind the winner, but LD has a "more important, higher level" candidate for the party who i think performed beyond expectations in 2012.

[lilTommy]

PQ not running a candidate in la Piniere to help the QLP-now Indie Houda-Pepin
http://quebec.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/03/14/pq-pas-de-candidat-la-piniere-fatima-houda-pepin-_n_4964712.html?utm_hp_ref=politique

[Hatman 🍁]

How much of the PQ vote will she win?

[Krago]

Here is how downtown Montreal voted in the last provincial election.




(ADQ should be CAQ below.)

[Hatman 🍁]

Would be nice if anyone had a map showing the Montreal mayoral results by polling division. I think QS can win any area where Project Montreal won.

[RogueBeaver]

Leger has a 37/37/14 tie and the PQ at 43% among Francophones, a slippage from last time. Flash polarization on the national question is starting, and PKP's a polarizing figure himself.

[DC Al Fine]

Krago's map seems like a good argument  against Fonticella winning. That's a pretty big unreachable block of PLQ voters in the southern part of the riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

Leger regional breaks (change from last Leger province-wide poll):

Montreal CMA

PLQ: 40 (n/c)
PQ: 34 (-1)
CAQ: 12 (n/c)
QS: 11 (+3)
PVQ: 1 (-2)
Oth: 1 (n/c)
ON: 0 (-1)


Quebec City CMA

PLQ: 39 (+7)
PQ: 30 (-1)
CAQ: 20 (-4)
QS: 7 (-1)
PVQ: 2 (n/c)
ON: 2 (n/c)
Oth: 0 (-1)


ROQ

PQ: 40 (n/c)
PLQ: 33 (+4)
CAQ: 16 (-1)
QS: 7 (-1)
PVQ: 1 (-1)
ON: 1 (n/c)
Oth: 2 (n/c)

[Krago]

Have you seen any recent Quebec cross-tabs showing federal vote vs. provincial vote?

[RogueBeaver]

57% of Quebecers, 64% of Francophones have a negative opinion of Muslims. 56% of Quebecers have a negative opinion of Hasidic Jews.

[RogueBeaver]

308 still projects a PQ majority.

[RogueBeaver]

Interesting article from Breguet on the sovereigntist division. Reminds me a lot of '66 and the UN-RIN coop deal.

Which would be another '66 parallel though with a much smaller gap. I don't see the huge deal there, PV topline is just a stat.

[RogueBeaver]

PQ's Megantic candidate has some interesting views on welfare recipients.