Quebec: April 7, 2014

[Krago]

514 Montreal, excl. Laval

Which ridings did you use for 418 and 819?

514   Acadie, Anjou-Louis-Riel, Bourassa-Sauvé, Bourget, Crémazie, D'Arcy-McGee, Gouin, Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, Jacques-Cartier, Jeanne-Mance-Viger, LaFontaine, Laurier-Dorion, Marguerite-Bourgeoys, Marquette, Mercier, Mont-Royal, Nelligan, Notre-Dame-de-Grâce, Outremont, Pointe-aux-Trembles, Robert-Baldwin, Rosemont, Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques, Saint-Henri-Sainte-Anne, Saint-Laurent, Verdun, Viau, Westmount-Saint-Louis

450   Argenteuil, Beauharnois, Berthier, Bertrand, Blainville, Borduas, Brome-Missisquoi, Chambly, Châteauguay, Chomedey, Deux-Montagnes, Fabre, Granby, Groulx, Huntingdon, Iberville, Joliette, La Pinière, La Prairie, Laporte, L'Assomption, Laval-des-Rapides, Marie-Victorin, Masson, Mille-Îles, Mirabel, Montarville, Repentigny, Richelieu, Rousseau, Sainte-Rose, Saint-Hyacinthe, Saint-Jean, Saint-Jérôme, Sanguinet, Soulanges, Taillon, Terrebonne, Vachon, Vaudreuil, Verchères, Vimont

819   Abitibi-Est, Abitibi-Ouest, Arthabaska, Champlain, Chapleau, Drummond-Bois-Francs, Gatineau, Hull, Johnson, Labelle, Laviolette, Maskinongé, Mégantic, Nicolet-Bécancour, Orford, Papineau, Pontiac, Richmond, Rouyn-Noranda-Témiscamingue, Saint-François, Saint-Maurice, Sherbrooke, Trois-Rivières, Ungava

418   Beauce-Nord, Beauce-Sud, Bellechasse, Bonaventure, Charlesbourg, Charlevoix-Côte-de-Beaupré, Chauveau, Chicoutimi, Chutes-de-la-Chaudière, Côte-du-Sud, Dubuc, Duplessis, Gaspé, Îles-de-la-Madeleine, Jean-Lesage, Jean-Talon, Jonquière, La Peltrie, Lac-Saint-Jean, Lévis, Lotbinière-Frontenac, Louis-Hébert, Matane-Matapédia, Montmorency, Portneuf, René-Lévesque, Rimouski, Rivière-du-Loup-Témiscouata, Roberval, Taschereau, Vanier-Les Rivières

[Hatman 🍁]

Thanks!

Your 450 matches what I had previously figured out (see my Week 3 projection), so that's good.

[Vosem]

I can't help but think these 'the PQ is eternally doomed' projections remind me of similar ones regarding the Republicans. While party politics in Canada has historically been more fluid than in the US, as long as a significant portion of the population of Quebec supports left-wing, sovereigntist politics there will be room for a party that supports those positions, either the PQ itself or (and I highly doubt this will come to pass) a broadly-similar successor party.

[RogueBeaver]

I can't help but think these 'the PQ is eternally doomed' projections remind me of similar ones regarding the Republicans. While party politics in Canada has historically been more fluid than in the US, as long as a significant portion of the population of Quebec supports left-wing, sovereigntist politics there will be room for a party that supports those positions, either the PQ itself or (and I highly doubt this will come to pass) a broadly-similar successor party.

Who said the PQ is doomed? They'll be back in a couple of cycles, but medium to long term some ideological adjustments may be in order. If this current trend holds, which it may not - 20 years ago picture was very different.

[Vosem]

I can't help but think these 'the PQ is eternally doomed' projections remind me of similar ones regarding the Republicans. While party politics in Canada has historically been more fluid than in the US, as long as a significant portion of the population of Quebec supports left-wing, sovereigntist politics there will be room for a party that supports those positions, either the PQ itself or (and I highly doubt this will come to pass) a broadly-similar successor party.

Who said the PQ is doomed?

No one in this thread, but the article by Don Macpherson you linked to seems to imply it and I get the sense that there are figures out there drawing overbroad conclusions from one poorly-run PQ campaign.

They'll be back in a couple of cycles, but medium to long term some ideological adjustments may be in order. If this current trend holds, which it may not - 20 years ago picture was very different.

Isn't "adjustments to the ideology will be necessary in the future for Party X to stay relevant" a sort of universal truth, though? One Party X's opponents like to bring up as if it were an impossibility every time Party X loses, even though the parties' positions in democratic societies have always tended to be fluid.

[RogueBeaver]

Reminder from Macpherson: this will be the shortest-lived elected government since Confederation. Guess someone had to set the record.

[You kip if you want to...]

How funny would it be if CAQ was able to push PQ into third?

Getting close with Angus Reid.

[RogueBeaver]

How funny would it be if CAQ was able to push PQ into third?

Getting close with Angus Reid.

PV perhaps, but not seats. Doubt either happens, same question was posed 19 months ago about PLQ/CAQ too.

[Citizen Hats]

I can't help but think these 'the PQ is eternally doomed' projections remind me of similar ones regarding the Republicans. While party politics in Canada has historically been more fluid than in the US, as long as a significant portion of the population of Quebec supports left-wing, sovereigntist politics there will be room for a party that supports those positions, either the PQ itself or (and I highly doubt this will come to pass) a broadly-similar successor party.

While I wouldn't write the PQ off, in Canada, major political parties do actually disappear from time to time

[Vosem]

I can't help but think these 'the PQ is eternally doomed' projections remind me of similar ones regarding the Republicans. While party politics in Canada has historically been more fluid than in the US, as long as a significant portion of the population of Quebec supports left-wing, sovereigntist politics there will be room for a party that supports those positions, either the PQ itself or (and I highly doubt this will come to pass) a broadly-similar successor party.

While I wouldn't write the PQ off, in Canada, major political parties do actually disappear from time to time

That's true, but what I was saying was that even in the extremely unlikely event that the PQ does "die", there would be a successor party that would win sovereigntist votes and have a sovereigntist platform, the way that for instance right-wing votes in British Columbia migrated from the Socreds to the Liberals (or even the way that in Quebec the CAQ absorbed the ADQ). Political parties do die in Canada, but people continue to vote.

[DC Al Fine]

Apparently an Angus Reid poll has the Liberals at 39, the PQ at 27 and the CAQ at 25. Could the CAQ actually do rather well for itself?

Yes and no.

 More than 2/3 of CAQ's seats were won by less than 10%, so even a marginal drop will cost them dearly. They should avoid disaster and do much better than what was expected at the start of the campaign. Assuming current numbers hold, they ought to retain a core of half a dozen seats or so instead of the 2-3 that people were expecting a week or two ago.

[DL]

Quebec is actually a bit of a graveyard of dead political parties - so idf the PQ shrivels up and dies it ill be nothing new:

The Union Nationale  1939-1939, 1944-1960 and 1966-1970, then they were crushed in the 1970 election, then wiped off the map in 1973 - in less then four years they went from being the government of Quebec to having no seats at all and they are dead to this day

Social Credit was another phenomenon that swept Quebec in ther 60s and then dies in 1980 when it was wiped off the map and never heard from again.

More recently the Bloc Quebecois lost almost all its seats to the NDP in 2011 and it shows no signs of ever coming back and it is for all intents and purposes a dead party.

The PQ could get torn apart between people deserting it for Quebec Solidaire and people going CAQ and the fact that the PQ lost because people wanted to reject their central credo which is Quebec independence will mean a lot of soul searching to say the least.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is hilarious.

Yup, basically.

[DC Al Fine]

Predictions anyone?

PLQ: 72
PQ: 42
CAQ: 8
QS: 3 (Saint-Marie-Saint Jacques is the 3rd)

This of course is subject to change if there are any last minute polls.

[Cassius]

Fo' da lulz, a prediction with no grounding in data or in knowledge of the electoral situation in the ridings.

PLQ: 67 seats, 38 percent
PQ: 46 seats, 27 percent
CAQ: 10 seats, 22 percent
QS: 2 seats, 10 percent

[You kip if you want to...]

So, Pauline Marois is just a crap premier, or the crappiest premier?

[RogueBeaver]

So, Pauline Marois is just a crap premier, or the crappiest premier?

Completely blew a winnable writ campaign, very similar to 2003 when she was Landry's deputy. Lousy premier to be sure on the political and policy fronts. Just 2 months ago the PLQ was in disarray (extremely rare for them: last time that happened was the late '60s) and completely incoherent on many policy issues, cartwheeling or waffling. PQ went through many contortions in their first year, which smoothed out last fall.

[Krago]

This of course is subject to change if there are any last minute polls.

Will there be another CROP or Forum poll tonight or is it too late for that?

[Marokai Backbeat]

So, Pauline Marois is just a crap premier, or the crappiest premier?

Crap premier, crappiest campaigner.

[Hatman 🍁]

This of course is subject to change if there are any last minute polls.

Will there be another CROP or Forum poll tonight or is it too late for that?

It's possible.

[Hatman 🍁]

According to Twitter, there will be a Forum poll released tonight. Don't know about CROP.

[Vosem]

Here are predictions -- I doubt I'll have time to take more than a cursory look at the Forum poll, so probably the final predictions:

Liberal 62 (all others)
Parti Quebecois 47 (Abitibi-Ouest, Beauharnois, Berthier, Bertrand, Bonaventure, Borduas, Bourget, Chambly, Champlain, Charlevoix-Cote-de-Beaupre, Chicoutimi, Cremazie, Deux-Montagnes, Dubuc, Duplessis, Gaspe, Groulx, Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, Iberville, Iles-de-la-Madeleine, Johnson, Joliette, Jonquiere, Labelle, Lac-Saint-Jean, Marie-Victorin, Masson, Matane-Matapedia, Mirabel, Pointe-aux-Trembles, Rene-Levesque, Repentigny, Richelieu, Rimouski, Roberval, Rosemont, Rousseau, Saint-Hyacinthe, Saint-Jean, Saint-Jerome, Sanguinet, Taillon, Taschereau, Terrebonne, Ungava, Vachon, Vercheres)
Coalition Avenir Quebec 12 (Arthabaska, Beauce-Nord, Blainville, Chauveau, Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere, Drummond-Bois-Francs, Granby, La Peltrie, L'Assomption, Levis, Montarville, Portneuf)
Quebec Solidaire 3 (Gouin, Mercier, Saint-Marie-Saint-Jacques)
Independent (Fatima Houda-Pepin) 1 (La Piniere)

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are predictions -- I doubt I'll have time to take more than a cursory look at the Forum poll, so probably the final predictions:

Independent (Fatima Houda-Pepin) 1 (La Piniere)

Not happening.

[Krago]

Final Forum poll:  Lib 44, PQ 24, CAQ 23, QS 6

Forum Poll Details

[Hatman 🍁]

Will it be a massacre?