Quebec: April 7, 2014

[MaxQue]

Will it be a massacre?

Well, the electoral map would the good color for that.

On another day, I'll be working for elections, so, I won't be to give the perspective from rural Quebec (Abitibi) before 8PM (the hour polls close and leave).

[RogueBeaver]

PQ has only been massacred once: '85. Circumstances are very different now. Though ultimately PMJ and the kangaroos were right. Marois was a caribou in those days.

[Hatman 🍁]

Will it be a massacre?

Well, the electoral map would the good color for that.

On another day, I'll be working for elections, so, I won't be to give the perspective from rural Quebec (Abitibi) before 8PM (the hour polls close and leave).

We expect results from your polling division / precinct

[MaxQue]

Will it be a massacre?

Well, the electoral map would the good color for that.

On another day, I'll be working for elections, so, I won't be to give the perspective from rural Quebec (Abitibi) before 8PM (the hour polls close and leave).

We expect results from your polling division / precinct

I leave as soon voting is finished, so, I won't/can't be there for counting.
I don't work with a voting box, but rather as a member of the identity verification panel, for people needing special identification (scrutineers can only accepy driving licence/health card/Native status certificate/mititary card/passport) and people taking an oath and having someone vouch for them.

In short, option 2 and 3 of the federal elections (http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=vot&dir=ids&document=index&lang=e), except than 2 documents having together name, address and birth date is also acceptable and than the voucher doesn't need to be in the same polling division and can vouch for as much family members he wants (+ 1 person outside of his family).

All those people come to us. We are 3, and we take decisions at the majority.

[cp]

Do let us know if there are any rich McGill students in veils who try to vote

On a more serious note, how likely is it that the CAQ could outperform the current seat projections? Usually 20% is the tipping point for a party to start picking up seats in a FPTP system and the momentum seems to be on the CAQ's side. They're running neck and neck with the PQ, which is what happened during the ADQ break out in 2007, but back then the PLQ was only a couple points ahead rather than 20. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Will it be a massacre?

Well, the electoral map would the good color for that.

On another day, I'll be working for elections, so, I won't be to give the perspective from rural Quebec (Abitibi) before 8PM (the hour polls close and leave).

We expect results from your polling division / precinct

I leave as soon voting is finished, so, I won't/can't be there for counting.
I don't work with a voting box, but rather as a member of the identity verification panel, for people needing special identification (scrutineers can only accepy driving licence/health card/Native status certificate/mititary card/passport) and people taking an oath and having someone vouch for them.

In short, option 2 and 3 of the federal elections (http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=vot&dir=ids&document=index&lang=e), except than 2 documents having together name, address and birth date is also acceptable and than the voucher doesn't need to be in the same polling division and can vouch for as much family members he wants (+ 1 person outside of his family).

All those people come to us. We are 3, and we take decisions at the majority.

What will you be doing if a maudit anglais tries to vote?

[RogueBeaver]

Ridings to watch, none we didn't know already.

[You kip if you want to...]

CAQ will be second in the PV.

[Zanas]

CAQ will be second in the PV.

And you know that because ?...

[RogueBeaver]

It was predicted 19 months ago too, won't happen this time either.

[cp]

Speaking of predictions, I'll add my two cents:

Seats:
PLQ: 66
PQ: 42
CAQ: 15
QS: 2

PV:
PLQ: 42.5%
PQ: 26.5%
CAQ: 24%
QS: 6%
Others: 1%

I also consider to be possible, but not as likely, an outcome that sees the PLQ get over 75 seats at the expense of the CAQ with negligible changes in the PV.

Bonne chance tout le monde!

[Hatman 🍁]

Speaking of predictions, I'll add my two cents:

Seats:
PLQ: 66
PQ: 42
CAQ: 15
QS: 2

Wow, very similar to mine. Except I have the Liberals and 65 and PQ at 43.

[cp]

You know what they say about great minds . . .

It's just a coincidence this time, though. Or perhaps an unconscious repetition, as I read your blog earlier but wasn't thinking about it when I sat down to decide what I thought would happen.

My thinking was that a PLQ majority was more likely than a minority, that the CAQ would do no better than they did last time but not much worse, and that QS and the PQ would turn out their vote just as efficiently as one would expect.

[Krago]

They're goin' down.  I'm yellin' "Timber!".
 
Lib - 78
CAQ - 22
PQ - 21
QS - 4

[You kip if you want to...]

So, Pauline Marois is just a crap premier, or the crappiest premier?

Completely blew a winnable writ campaign, very similar to 2003 when she was Landry's deputy. Lousy premier to be sure on the political and policy fronts. Just 2 months ago the PLQ was in disarray (extremely rare for them: last time that happened was the late '60s) and completely incoherent on many policy issues, cartwheeling or waffling. PQ went through many contortions in their first year, which smoothed out last fall.

Looking back at the disaster she was as LotO, I guess nobody should have expected any better from her as Premier.

[DL]

I think Krago may have the right idea. People are in denial as to how big a PLQ win this could actually be. If the final polls are right and the PLQ ends up with a double digit lead in the popular vote - it won't be close and in fact the Liberals could get as many as 80 seats. Look at what happened in Quebec in the 2011 federal election when the NDP took 42% and the BQ took 23%? in seats it was NDP 59 and BQ 4!! The first past the post system is very unforgiving when parties lose by a wide margin.

Looking at QC electoral history the closes parallel to this election would be 1970:

PLQ - 45% and 73 seats
PQ - 23% and 7 seats
Union national - 20% and 17 seats
Creditistes - 11% and 12 seats

Sure things have changed since 1970 but this is just an example of how low the PQ seats count could go if they were really doing as badly as the final Forum poll suggests

[Hatman 🍁]

You know what they say about great minds . . .

It's just a coincidence this time, though. Or perhaps an unconscious repetition, as I read your blog earlier but wasn't thinking about it when I sat down to decide what I thought would happen.

My thinking was that a PLQ majority was more likely than a minority, that the CAQ would do no better than they did last time but not much worse, and that QS and the PQ would turn out their vote just as efficiently as one would expect.

We are way off in terms of popular vote, though.

Here is my final projection blog post: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/04/quebec-2014-election-final-seat.html

[You kip if you want to...]

I think Krago may have the right idea. People are in denial as to how big a PLQ win this could actually be. If the final polls are right and the PLQ ends up with a double digit lead in the popular vote - it won't be close and in fact the Liberals could get as many as 80 seats. Look at what happened in Quebec in the 2011 federal election when the NDP took 42% and the BQ took 23%? in seats it was NDP 59 and BQ 4!! The first past the post system is very unforgiving when parties lose by a wide margin.

Looking at QC electoral history the closes parallel to this election would be 1970:

PLQ - 45% and 73 seats
PQ - 23% and 7 seats
Union national - 20% and 17 seats
Creditistes - 11% and 12 seats

Sure things have changed since 1970 but this is just an example of how low the PQ seats count could go if they were really doing as badly as the final Forum poll suggests

A 44 year old election result, with a defunct former governing party, can't really tell us much.

The thing about FPTP is that it's unpredictable one way or the other. The PLQ could rack up a healthy PV margin but only be ahead on seats by 10-15 because their support's spread fairly evenly across the province and the PQ's support generally clusters in certain regions. It takes fewer votes to elect a PQ MNA.

This is a massive problem in most systems that use FPTP.

But yes, if the PLQ is over 40 and both the CAQ and the PQ are in the mid-20s, it'll be a landslide anyway.

[Hatman 🍁]

Landslide, eh?

Consider this.

In 2008, the polling average for the last week showed the Liberals with a 12 point lead. The Liberals ended up winning by 7 points.

Fast forward to 2014, the polling average gives the Liberals a similar 13 point lead. If we see a similar turnout pattern (and why not, both elections were held right after short lived minority governments with the Liberals expected to easily win), then we could end up with a smaller Liberal win.

I've factored in this theory into my projection which "only" shows the Liberals winning by 9%.

[cp]

And quite a projection it is! You've got PKP going down to an 8-point defeat. From your mouth to their ears!

[the506]

I have:

PLQ 69
PQ 36
CAQ 17
QS 3

[Antonio the Sixth]

When do polls close? I might have a "chance" to see the beginning of the counting since I have to stay up late to write a paper.

[RogueBeaver]

When do polls close? I might have a "chance" to see the beginning of the counting since I have to stay up late to write a paper.

Little over 3 hours from now. I'll put up results pages and Radio-Canada livestream later. As usual, projection should be within an hour of polls closing.

[the506]

Here are the 3 Montreal English TV channels. I *think* all of them will be streaming their election night coverage.

http://www.cbc.ca/montreal/
http://montreal.ctvnews.ca/
http://globalnews.ca/montreal/

[Hatman 🍁]

And quite a projection it is! You've got PKP going down to an 8-point defeat. From your mouth to their ears!

I'm not sure if I'd rather have him getting humiliated but going back to running Quebecor or having the embarrassment of being in opposition.

Anyways, it's impossible to know for sure whether he will get a star candidate boost or get a nefarious candidate dip.  My speculation is it's the latter.