Quebec: April 7, 2014

[DL]

St. Jerome is not a seat that lends itself well to traditional swing analysis. It is actually currently a CAQ held seat, but Jacques Duchesneau the star candidate who won it narrowly for CAQ in 2012 is not running again and the new CAQ candidate is apparently low profile and running a very weak local campaign...the conventional wisdom is that if PKP loses it will be to the Liberal who got a lot of publicity as a results of having lead a union local at a Quebecor newspaper where PKP imposed one of his notorious lock-outs!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think Krago may have the right idea. People are in denial as to how big a PLQ win this could actually be. If the final polls are right and the PLQ ends up with a double digit lead in the popular vote - it won't be close and in fact the Liberals could get as many as 80 seats. Look at what happened in Quebec in the 2011 federal election when the NDP took 42% and the BQ took 23%? in seats it was NDP 59 and BQ 4!! The first past the post system is very unforgiving when parties lose by a wide margin.

^^^

Of course the polls might be exaggerating the scale of the impending rout (this being Canada, after all). But it must be noted that the PQ don't have many seats with huge majorities: the tendency is for solid ones. Which is normally fine, but might be problematic if the late-polls situation is the actual one.

[Hatman 🍁]

St. Jerome is not a seat that lends itself well to traditional swing analysis. It is actually currently a CAQ held seat, but Jacques Duchesneau the star candidate who won it narrowly for CAQ in 2012 is not running again and the new CAQ candidate is apparently low profile and running a very weak local campaign...the conventional wisdom is that if PKP loses it will be to the Liberal who got a lot of publicity as a results of having lead a union local at a Quebecor newspaper where PKP imposed one of his notorious lock-outs!

A fair point, DL. I had the riding going PQ all the way up to my final projection, so I didn't have the time to reflect up on the late CAQ surge and the peculiarities in my model that would pop up as a result. Duscheneau's candidacy was definitely strong one, as he increased the ADQ/CAQ vote 9 pts more than the provincial average. If you take this away from CAQ and give some the PQ, my model would have the PQ winning it. The race is for 2nd place. Even though the CAQ candidate is not strong, that doesn't matter in Quebec. Remember the orange wave?

St. Jerome is somewhat removed from Montreal, but it's in the same CMA as Montreal, and so it's grouped in with the Montreal region in a lot of surveys. The north shore is swinging heavily to the CAQ, so St-Jerome got swept up in my model as well.

[RogueBeaver]

Results from La Presse and RC.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2014/resultats-des-elections-quebec-2014/#qc

http://ici.radio-canada.ca/resultats-elections-quebec-2014/

[RogueBeaver]

PLQ leading 4-1 in seats.

[RogueBeaver]

15-9-1-1 PLQ.

[the506]

38-14-1-1.

It's early, but the rout looks to be on.

[trebor204]

Elections Quebec has more updated results

http://resultats.dgeq.org/resultatsSommaires.en.html

Election Quebec Lib-68, BQ-22
CBC - Lib 42, PQ - 14

[RogueBeaver]

CTV projects a Liberal government.

[cp]

Jeez, that didn't take long. 19 minutes?

[trebor204]

It looks like the first results counted were the advance polls.

[RogueBeaver]

52/20/1/1 leading or elected. Elected: PLQ 13, PQ 2, CAQ 1, QS 1.

[cp]

Where are you getting the elected numbers from?

[You kip if you want to...]

Anyone got any French language streams?

[You kip if you want to...]

CBC call it for the PLQ!

[MaxQue]

CAQ vote collasped like a bad soufflé.

[RogueBeaver]

Radio-Canada projects a Liberal government.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Landslide

[You kip if you want to...]

CAQ will be second in the PV.

I apologise.

[the506]

PKP leading early in St-Jerome. Awkward...

[trebor204]

Leading and Elected from CBC

http://www.cbc.ca/elections/quebecvotes2014/#/51

[Antonio the Sixth]

Landslide

Yup.

That was fun while it lasted.

[Vosem]

Got excited when I saw the Liberal leading Gouin, but it's with just 40 votes (total) counted. Shame on the bad CAQ performance.

[Hatman 🍁]

harrumph

[RogueBeaver]

Marois trailing in her own riding. If a big enough majority, she could lose. She's lost before: the Gritnami in '85.