Quebec: April 7, 2014

[Hatman 🍁]

The famous 2 boxes left in most ridings are the postal vote for people living in foreign countries, TVA said.

I figured it was something like that. I wonder how the electoral district of "Florida" will vote?

I'm thinking Quebecers living abroad are probably wealthy, so perhaps bad news for QS.

[RogueBeaver]

Possible leadership candidates are PKP, outgoing international affairs minister-cum-strategic guru Jean-François Lisée and outgoing democratic reform minister Bernard Drainville. The fourth hopeful, outgoing higher education minister Pierre Duchesne, was defeated (and would've been dropped from cabinet had the PQ won). They'll have a new leader by fall session in October: 5 months when Landry quit, 2 months when Boisclair quit.

[MaxQue]

The famous 2 boxes left in most ridings are the postal vote for people living in foreign countries, TVA said.

I figured it was something like that. I wonder how the electoral district of "Florida" will vote?

I'm thinking Quebecers living abroad are probably wealthy, so perhaps bad news for QS.

USA, especially Florida, is the biggest foreign vote source. France is 2nd, UK 3th.

[MaxQue]

Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques is finished.

QS leads by 91 votes.

[adma]

Here's a question: has there ever been another circumstance in which two consecutive elections saw a sitting Premier lose his/her own seat?

[RogueBeaver]

Here's a question: has there ever been another circumstance in which two consecutive elections saw a sitting Premier lose his/her own seat?

Not that I can think of, certainly not here. That said, Sauvé, Bourassa, Levesque lost their seats at different points in their careers.

[Хahar 🤔]

The last time the island was this red was for Trudeau in 1980.

[DL]

Actually Montreal also went almost totally red when the Liberals won a big landslide in 1985

[Hatman 🍁]

Map. Thanks to Smid for getting it started for me.

[Zioneer]

Are there any good articles about what this election means for Quebec?

[RogueBeaver]

Here are the best English-language ones, IMO. PQ has some serious structural, ideological and demographic issues - another victory would've merely postponed that reckoning. Caution on demographics: current trends are a 180 from what they were just 20 years ago, and could change again.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The PQ have now suffered two genuinely humiliating defeats in seven years. It is being trashed in some of its traditional strongholds. The message ought to be pretty fycking clear.

[Cassius]

I may have missed some prediction that put the CAQ higher than 10-15 seats, but, in any case, what does this election mean for it; I mean, to have gone from semi-annihilation in the polls to actually gaining seats (if not votes) is actually a rather decent feet, all things considered.

[EPG]

If two-thirds of Québécois really don't want a referendum, the difficult position of the Parti Québécois is understandable. The late revival of the CAQ suggests demand for more moderate, conciliatory nationalism and secularism. Such a party could easily be one pole of a two-party system.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If two-thirds of Québécois really don't want a referendum, the difficult position of the Parti Québécois is understandable. The late revival of the CAQ suggests demand for more moderate, conciliatory nationalism and secularism. Such a party could easily be one pole of a two-party system.

Hopefully the other pole is a genuinely left-wing option, although I understand such a thing is getting pretty rare worldwide.

[MaxQue]

If two-thirds of Québécois really don't want a referendum, the difficult position of the Parti Québécois is understandable. The late revival of the CAQ suggests demand for more moderate, conciliatory nationalism and secularism. Such a party could easily be one pole of a two-party system.

CAQ is very popular in suburbs, but not at all in cities and regions.

[RogueBeaver]

New budget and secular charter will be enacted. Probably a short June session similar to '03. Regular fall session in October as usual. 4 elections in 7 years has been quite enough.

[RogueBeaver]

Another item on the agenda: euthanasia.

[RogueBeaver]

Lisee's open letter to Marois is absolutely hilarious. Basically "Quebecers agree with our entire platform except Article 1." Yeah, about Article 1. As Paul Wells noted yesterday, they're jammed between their activists and the electorate. Lisee could well be the guy who has to fix that.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

New budget and secular charter will be enacted.

Oh ugh.

[cp]

New budget and secular charter will be enacted. Probably a short June session similar to '03. Regular fall session in October as usual. 4 elections in 7 years has been quite enough.

Says who? I would have thought that given the results of the election the PLQ would feel comfortable not bringing up the Chartres right away, especially if they could pull it out of their pocket in a few years if their poll numbers decline.

Another item on the agenda: euthanasia.

Long overdue.

[RogueBeaver]

Most of the "secular charter" (unfortunately, IMO) has all-party support. Had Marois compromised last fall it would've sailed through. But since those wedge provisions were part of their (failed) political strategy, no compromise.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Most of the "secular charter" (unfortunately, IMO) has all-party support. Had Marois compromised last fall it would've sailed through. But since those wedge provisions were part of their (failed) political strategy, no compromise.

Is there any hope that it could be ruled in violation of federal law?

[Krago]

If every single QS voter had chosen the PQ instead, the results would have been:  Lib 63, PQ 51, CAQ 11

The Liberals dropped in vote share in just one seat (Arthabaska), while the PQ went up in three (Nicolet-Bécancour, Matane-Matapédia, Soulanges).  The PQ dropped in support in their only new seat (Saint-Jerome), while the CAQ went down in three seats that they gained from the PQ (Bourduas, Deux-Montagnes, Repentigny).

The PQ lost six seats to the Liberals that they had won by a margin greater than 10% in 2012.  All of them are about as far away from Montreal as you can get (Charlevoix-Côte-de-Beaupré, Dubuc, Îles-de-la-Madeleine, Roberval, Rouyn-Noranda-Témiscamingue, Ungava).

The PQ defended 16 seats won by a margin of less than 8% in 2012.  They lost 15 of them, only holding on to Rousseau.


Here are the seats that switched parties:

CAQ to Liberal
Charlesbourg
La Prairie
Montmorency
Portneuf
Vanier-Les Rivières

CAQ to PQ
Saint-Jérôme

PQ to CAQ
Borduas
Chambly
Deux-Montagnes
Iberville
Johnson
Masson
Mirabel
Repentigny
Saint-Hyacinthe

PQ to Liberal
Abitibi-Est
Argenteuil
Champlain
Charlevoix-Côte-de-Beaupré
Crémazie
Dubuc
Îles-de-la-Madeleine
Laval-des-Rapides
Roberval
Rouyn-Noranda-Témiscamingue
Sainte-Rose
Saint-François
Saint-Maurice
Sherbrooke
Ungava

PQ to QS
Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques

[RogueBeaver]

Doubtful. Federal court ruling would be politically helpful for the government, as usual. Linguistic scene is still calm, Grits will be reintroducing Grade 6 English immersion that was axed by the PQ.