Quebec: April 7, 2014
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  Quebec: April 7, 2014
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Author Topic: Quebec: April 7, 2014  (Read 62480 times)
DC Al Fine
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« Reply #600 on: April 08, 2014, 03:37:45 PM »

Most of the "secular charter" (unfortunately, IMO) has all-party support. Had Marois compromised last fall it would've sailed through. But since those wedge provisions were part of their (failed) political strategy, no compromise.

Why? I would've figured that the Liberals would be too afraid to piss off the Allophones (and to a lesser extent the Anglos).

FTR, my vote would've been for Parti Unite Nationale (yes they only had 3 candidates, but they had one in "my" riding*)

*Charlesbourg
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MaxQue
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« Reply #601 on: April 08, 2014, 03:50:57 PM »

You must be insane to support that crowd of hard-core fundamentalists.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #602 on: April 08, 2014, 03:51:03 PM »

Afraid? Anglos vote for them nearly unanimously no matter the political circumstance. The rural third of Anglos voted Unionist in that era, apart from that we've been monolithically Grit since the '30s. Nothing conceivable could shake their hammerlock on the Anglo vote. Allos more complicated but most still vote PLQ. I'd really like to see that broken, but I'd be surprised if it happened in my lifetime.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #603 on: April 08, 2014, 04:22:10 PM »

The Liberals dropped in vote share in just one seat (Arthabaska), while the PQ went up in three (Nicolet-Bécancour, Matane-Matapédia, Soulanges).  The PQ dropped in support in their only new seat (Saint-Jerome), while the CAQ went down in three seats that they gained from the PQ (Bourduas, Deux-Montagnes, Repentigny).

Arthabaska has Sylvie Roy as MNA, a very efficient CAQ MNA. The riding was new in 2012 and much of it has been never been represented by her, so, it might be incumbenty kicking in.

Nicolet-Bécancour had Jean-Martin Aussant as the ON incumbent last time, Matate-Matapédia was created by merging 2 ridings and the incumbent was unknown in half the riding. Soulanges had no CAQ candidate this year, so there was around 25% of vote which was freed.
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EPG
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« Reply #604 on: April 08, 2014, 04:48:45 PM »

If two-thirds of Québécois really don't want a referendum, the difficult position of the Parti Québécois is understandable. The late revival of the CAQ suggests demand for more moderate, conciliatory nationalism and secularism. Such a party could easily be one pole of a two-party system.

Hopefully the other pole is a genuinely left-wing option, although I understand such a thing is getting pretty rare worldwide.

Québec already has a genuinely left-wing option, but like most genuinely left-wing parties, they are genuinely not very popular.

Many polities don't follow traditional left-right politics, Québec has been one of them for many years.
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adma
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« Reply #605 on: April 08, 2014, 09:36:53 PM »

I may have missed some prediction that put the CAQ higher than 10-15 seats, but, in any case, what does this election mean for it; I mean, to have gone from semi-annihilation in the polls to actually gaining seats (if not votes) is actually a rather decent feet, all things considered.

Well, come the end, I was *sort of* anticipating such a thing as BQ and CAP neared polling parity--or at least, those forecasts that PQ would still be nearing 50 seats and ADQ struggling to make double digits (or any approximation of a UK '83 Labour-vs-Alliance differential) were looking farfetched...
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #606 on: April 08, 2014, 09:57:18 PM »

Hivon for PQ leader? Sounds promising but the sort of skillset required here isn't rampant among rookies.
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Krago
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« Reply #607 on: April 08, 2014, 10:08:57 PM »

I have sat through many election nights.  The longest was 2000 Bush v. Gore; the shortest was the 2003 Toronto municipal election - 80% of the polls reported by 8:05 while I was still in my car.

But I have never seen anything comparable to what happened to the CAQ last night.  With half of the ridings reporting around 8:30pm, the CAQ was leading in just one seat (according to the CBC).  When all the results were tallied, the CAQ managed to win 22 ridings.  Sometimes you get bizarre preliminary results when elections stretch across five time zones, but I haven't seen such an extreme case.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #608 on: April 08, 2014, 10:21:04 PM »

I have sat through many election nights.  The longest was 2000 Bush v. Gore; the shortest was the 2003 Toronto municipal election - 80% of the polls reported by 8:05 while I was still in my car.

But I have never seen anything comparable to what happened to the CAQ last night.  With half of the ridings reporting around 8:30pm, the CAQ was leading in just one seat (according to the CBC).  When all the results were tallied, the CAQ managed to win 22 ridings.  Sometimes you get bizarre preliminary results when elections stretch across five time zones, but I haven't seen such an extreme case.

To reduce delays, election offices are also to start counting early voting at 6PM. So, these results were early voting.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #609 on: April 08, 2014, 11:03:49 PM »

I suppose CAQ did poorly with the advance polls, as they were in the tank at the time. The fun thing about advance polls is, it's a snapshot in time to a point earlier in the campaign.

Another example is in the 2011 federal election, where the NDP won the E-Day vote in Westmount-Ville-Marie, but the advance votes came before the orange wave, and so were enough for the Liberal to win.

One reason people should wait until election day to vote. 
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Krago
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« Reply #610 on: April 08, 2014, 11:13:33 PM »

One reason people should wait until election day to vote. 

How very Republican of you.
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DL
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« Reply #611 on: April 08, 2014, 11:15:12 PM »

I was always under the impression that most people who vote in advance polls are people who are more partisan and certain of their choice and less likely to change their minds in the final week anyways
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #612 on: April 09, 2014, 06:54:18 AM »

I was always under the impression that most people who vote in advance polls are people who are more partisan and certain of their choice and less likely to change their minds in the final week anyways

This is probably true, but I'm sure some people would still change their minds. Plus, you never know- the candidate you would've voted for might eat a baby a few days before election day! Wink

One reason people should wait until election day to vote. 

How very Republican of you.

I'm not suggesting it be law, I'm just suggesting people should vote on E-Day if possible, because you never know what might happen.
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adma
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« Reply #613 on: April 09, 2014, 07:08:12 AM »

The rural third of Anglos voted Unionist in that era, apart from that we've been monolithically Grit since the '30s. Nothing conceivable could shake their hammerlock on the Anglo vote.

Except for something like 1989's Equality Party interlude, of course.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #614 on: April 09, 2014, 08:44:46 AM »

Prominent sovereigntists in post-mortem mode. For Beaudoin, the dream is dead. Gerard Bouchard sees a cul-de-sac: Article 1 can't be touched but it can't be used either.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #615 on: April 09, 2014, 04:04:08 PM »

MBK (I know, but he's good here) on PQ leadership, Castonguay and Hebert's takeaways. PQ will choose their parliamentary leader tomorrow.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #616 on: April 10, 2014, 09:22:52 AM »

Gendron, Maltais and Bedard will all seek the interim leadership. How does the PQ appoint one? Party executive or caucus vote?

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MaxQue
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« Reply #617 on: April 10, 2014, 12:46:51 PM »


The caucus will vote until one gets 50%.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #618 on: April 10, 2014, 01:04:29 PM »

Thanks. I hope PKP runs and they elect him leader.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #619 on: April 10, 2014, 01:14:10 PM »

I've been posting some maps to Twitter. For those of you who don't have Twitter or Facebook, here they are:

PLQ - PQ swing:


CAQ - PQ Swing:


Turnout change (2012-2014):


Linguistic map:
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MaxQue
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« Reply #620 on: April 10, 2014, 01:32:42 PM »

Thanks. I hope PKP runs and they elect him leader.

He can't. Interim leader can't run for leadership.
Plus, election is tonight, and he isn't a candidate. Through, Bédard is rumored to be a proxy for him.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #621 on: April 10, 2014, 01:34:27 PM »

I meant for permanent.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #622 on: April 10, 2014, 02:59:05 PM »

Another map, QS change:



Looks like the inverse of the turnout change map. This shows that polls were correct to show the QS as being stagnate in Montreal, despite the focused campaigns in the east end. Really hard to make projections when that kind of thing is going on.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #623 on: April 10, 2014, 03:01:30 PM »

Grenier on where the PQ vote went. Swept away in the couronne particularly.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #624 on: April 10, 2014, 03:34:37 PM »


Speaking of Grenier, he only correctly projected 82% of ridings correctly. Me? 84%.  Why do the press take him seriously?
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