Quebec: April 7, 2014

[RogueBeaver]

Meh, he's OK by me. Sometimes I think we'd be better off without polls, might produce better coverage.

[Smid]

QS vote map very interesting. Looks like improvement in the Francophone areas and decrease in the Anglophone areas, suggesting it was possibly a protest party last election for disaffected Liberals (who returned home this election) and a protest party for disaffected PQ's this election.

Sherbrooke is especially interesting. Now, I may be mis-remembering, but that's a university town, isn't it, and students didn't like the previous Premier? Seems to me, students last election may have voted strategically for PQ, to the detriment of QS, but this election returned home.

[RogueBeaver]

Bedard is interim leader.

[RogueBeaver]

Gaudreault and Hivon are sounding out support for a leadership run. Cabinet met today, final meeting next Wednesday. Grits will take their oaths on the 23rd.

[adma]

QS vote map very interesting. Looks like improvement in the Francophone areas and decrease in the Anglophone areas, suggesting it was possibly a protest party last election for disaffected Liberals (who returned home this election) and a protest party for disaffected PQ's this election.

And a good deal of the CAQ decrease was likewise in the Anglo areas; where they, too, acted as a token viable/non-separatist "protest vote" safe zone in 2012...

[Hatman 🍁]

QS vote map very interesting. Looks like improvement in the Francophone areas and decrease in the Anglophone areas, suggesting it was possibly a protest party last election for disaffected Liberals (who returned home this election) and a protest party for disaffected PQ's this election.

And a good deal of the CAQ decrease was likewise in the Anglo areas; where they, too, acted as a token viable/non-separatist "protest vote" safe zone in 2012...

CAQ map coming up, but you can see some of that going on in the CAQ-PQ swing map. Funny to see swing to the PQ in some Anglo areas (although, it's the case of not being able to go much lower than they were)

[Smid]

QS vote map very interesting. Looks like improvement in the Francophone areas and decrease in the Anglophone areas, suggesting it was possibly a protest party last election for disaffected Liberals (who returned home this election) and a protest party for disaffected PQ's this election.

And a good deal of the CAQ decrease was likewise in the Anglo areas; where they, too, acted as a token viable/non-separatist "protest vote" safe zone in 2012...

That makes a lot of sense, too. I had mis-read the CAQ vs PQ map (was looking at it on my phone on the train this morning) and had got the two parties in the reverse order, which made some sense to me, given the number of seats the CAQ lost in and around Quebec City.

[MaxQue]

Thanks. I hope PKP runs and they elect him leader.

On that point, I obviously disagree with you.

I can't support that enemy or labor and workers. He was a terrible and oppressive boss at Quebecor and is still the owner of Sun News, home of Quebec-bashing.

I can't neither support Bernard Drainville, the father of the Charte.

[Smid]

Thanks. I hope PKP runs and they elect him leader.

On that point, I obviously disagree with you.

I can't support that enemy or labor and workers. He was a terrible and oppressive boss at Quebecor and is still the owner of Sun News, home of Quebec-bashing.

I can't neither support Bernard Drainville, the father of the Charte.

Given RB's opinion of PQ, I suspect he wants him to be elected leader due to the damage it would cause the party. I could be misinterpretting, though.

[RogueBeaver]

Smid's right. From the PQ's POV Lisee, Cloutier or Hivon would seem better choices IMO. That said, at least there would be some colour and personality among our party leaders.

[MaxQue]

Thanks. I hope PKP runs and they elect him leader.

On that point, I obviously disagree with you.

I can't support that enemy or labor and workers. He was a terrible and oppressive boss at Quebecor and is still the owner of Sun News, home of Quebec-bashing.

I can't neither support Bernard Drainville, the father of the Charte.

Given RB's opinion of PQ, I suspect he wants him to be elected leader due to the damage it would cause the party. I could be misinterpretting, though.

Well, I'm pretty sure than Péladeau could be an asset to get back some CAQ voters (at the price of a leakage to QS). I suppose than RB likes him because he is the one the most likely to support right-wing economics.

[Hatman 🍁]

QS vote map very interesting. Looks like improvement in the Francophone areas and decrease in the Anglophone areas, suggesting it was possibly a protest party last election for disaffected Liberals (who returned home this election) and a protest party for disaffected PQ's this election.

And a good deal of the CAQ decrease was likewise in the Anglo areas; where they, too, acted as a token viable/non-separatist "protest vote" safe zone in 2012...

That makes a lot of sense, too. I had mis-read the CAQ vs PQ map (was looking at it on my phone on the train this morning) and had got the two parties in the reverse order, which made some sense to me, given the number of seats the CAQ lost in and around Quebec City.

Remember Smid, I use "Atlas colours" Much like Dave Leip's colour reversal, I have reversed the PQ and CAQ colours (Wikipedia agrees with me though). I'd prefer to keep all conservative parties blue and all separatist parties in teal.

[Krago]

Remember Smid, I use "Atlas colours" Much like Dave Leip's colour reversal, I have reversed the PQ and CAQ colours (Wikipedia agrees with me though). I'd prefer to keep all conservative parties blue and all separatist parties in teal.

All the cool kids use violet instead of teal.

[Hatman 🍁]

Remember Smid, I use "Atlas colours" Much like Dave Leip's colour reversal, I have reversed the PQ and CAQ colours (Wikipedia agrees with me though). I'd prefer to keep all conservative parties blue and all separatist parties in teal.

All the cool kids use violet instead of teal.

Using violet won't get you the girls.

[Hatman 🍁]

CAQ vote change:

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[EPG]

What's happening in the Québec City area? A Péquiste in the city centre, and Liberals around it. I know Lévis was the Canadian Alliance's strongest riding at federal level, so the CAQ vote is not surprising on the south shore.

[Hatman 🍁]

PQ change:

What's happening in the Québec City area? A Péquiste in the city centre, and Liberals around it. I know Lévis was the Canadian Alliance's strongest riding at federal level, so the CAQ vote is not surprising on the south shore.

The central riding is Taschereau, which votes like a typical city centre, for a left of centre party (the PQ). QS also had a strong vote there.

The area south of Quebec City, the Chaudiere-Appalaches region is the most conservative region in the province. It's what the Tories hold most of their seats federally. The Canadian Alliance hasn't existed in a decade

[EPG]

Hahaha, I had forgotten with all the hand-wringing about this campaign that the PQ is a left-of-centre party.

Don't ask me how I remembered the Lévis factoid, possibly because the riding at the time had a long, poetic, memorable name. I reckoned that any Québec riding with more than token CA support must have been QUITE conservative.

[MaxQue]

What's happening in the Québec City area? A Péquiste in the city centre, and Liberals around it. I know Lévis was the Canadian Alliance's strongest riding at federal level, so the CAQ vote is not surprising on the south shore.

Probably due to the candidate. At the 2003 by-election, they finished 6th, behind the green and almost tied with Marijuana Party.

[Hatman 🍁]

Levis(et-le-Chutes-de-la-Chadiere) was the fourth most CA-friendly riding in Quebec in 2000:

Charlesbourg – Jacques-Cartier: 15.41
Portneuf: 15.28
Québec East: 15.21
Lévis-et-Chutes-de-la-Chaudière: 14.51

I don't think it was just the candidate, I think the CA had some appeal to suburban Quebec City residents.

[adma]

The central riding is Taschereau, which votes like a typical city centre, for a left of centre party (the PQ). QS also had a strong vote there.

Sorta like what Ottawa Centre is relative to the (Ontario) ridings surrounding it.

[Smid]

QS vote map very interesting. Looks like improvement in the Francophone areas and decrease in the Anglophone areas, suggesting it was possibly a protest party last election for disaffected Liberals (who returned home this election) and a protest party for disaffected PQ's this election.

And a good deal of the CAQ decrease was likewise in the Anglo areas; where they, too, acted as a token viable/non-separatist "protest vote" safe zone in 2012...

That makes a lot of sense, too. I had mis-read the CAQ vs PQ map (was looking at it on my phone on the train this morning) and had got the two parties in the reverse order, which made some sense to me, given the number of seats the CAQ lost in and around Quebec City.

Remember Smid, I use "Atlas colours" Much like Dave Leip's colour reversal, I have reversed the PQ and CAQ colours (Wikipedia agrees with me though). I'd prefer to keep all conservative parties blue and all separatist parties in teal.

I completely agree with your colour usage. Not sure why I confused them initially - possibly due to the vote in Southern Montreal (specifically, the area adma refers, above), since those are areas where PQ is particularly weak.

[RogueBeaver]

This talk of Marois never establishing a personal rapport with the electorate is silly. Bourassa and Charest didn't have it and Couillard definitely won't. At any rate it has nothing to do with why she lost. Though given the PLQ's leadership preferences and culture, I highly doubt they'll produce such a leader for the foreseeable future. If such a person does arrive, they'll come from the bleu side, as usual.

[Hatman 🍁]

The central riding is Taschereau, which votes like a typical city centre, for a left of centre party (the PQ). QS also had a strong vote there.

Sorta like what Ottawa Centre is relative to the (Ontario) ridings surrounding it.

Yes, exactly- though less evident provincially.