Quebec: April 7, 2014

[adma]

The central riding is Taschereau, which votes like a typical city centre, for a left of centre party (the PQ). QS also had a strong vote there.

Sorta like what Ottawa Centre is relative to the (Ontario) ridings surrounding it.

Yes, exactly- though less evident provincially.

True in the last election; but still definitely evident provincially compared to what surrounds it, i.e this is the one seat around these parts where they really *try* to be competitive.  It's just that the Yasir Naqvi reelection machine proved to be more than they bargained for...

[Hatman 🍁]

The central riding is Taschereau, which votes like a typical city centre, for a left of centre party (the PQ). QS also had a strong vote there.

Sorta like what Ottawa Centre is relative to the (Ontario) ridings surrounding it.

Yes, exactly- though less evident provincially.

True in the last election; but still definitely evident provincially compared to what surrounds it, i.e this is the one seat around these parts where they really *try* to be competitive.  It's just that the Yasir Naqvi reelection machine proved to be more than they bargained for...

Wait, you're in Ottawa too?

Ottawa Centre was definitely the pinkest riding in 2011. Naqvi is very popular, and did a good job scaring voters into voting for them (to stop the Tories). Plus, the NDP ran a candidate with no name recognition (but, with strong credentials). This time, they're running a public school trustee, so they should make the race competitive. However, Naqvi's machine will be too much for the NDP to win, I think. Plus, the provincial NDP is too populist for some of the Ottawa Centre types, while the Liberals are very much their cup of tea; led by a progressive Lesbian? Latte liberals love that kinda stuff. Especially if the local candidate is a "progressive" Muslim like Naqvi.

[adma]

Wait, you're in Ottawa too?

No--perhaps I oughta said "those" rather than "these".

[Hatman 🍁]

Liberal change:

[RogueBeaver]

Liberal MNAs take their oath Thursday, per Radio-Canada.

[Hatman 🍁]

Liberal vs PQ trend map:

[RogueBeaver]

With Bedard in place, setup for PKP's accession ramps up. I had a brainfart last week: forgot that Ryan was the only other major party leader without political experience. We know how that turned out.

Truman quote that encapsulates PKP's stylistic problem: "He'll sit here, and he'll say, Do this! Do that! And nothing will happen. Poor Ike, it won't be a bit like the Army. He'll find it very frustrating."

[Hatman 🍁]

Mother tongue:

[Krago]

FWIW, if you transposed the 2011 federal election results onto the 125 Quebec provincial ridings the results would be:

NDP - 101
Lib - 10
Cons - 8
BQ - 6

The two closest seats would be:

• Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré (BQ by 55 votes over NDP)
• Robert-Baldwin (NDP by 89 votes over Liberal, by 469 votes over Conservative)

[Hatman 🍁]

FWIW, if you transposed the 2011 federal election results onto the 125 Quebec provincial ridings the results would be:

NDP - 101
Lib - 10
Cons - 8
BQ - 6

The two closest seats would be:

• Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré (BQ by 55 votes over NDP)
• Robert-Baldwin (NDP by 89 votes over Liberal, by 469 votes over Conservative)

If you want to send me the data, I could make a map of it!

[RogueBeaver]

At least one senior Pequiste believes this could be a realignment. What political scientist Vincent Lemieux predicted in '86: overturning 1970's verdict. I could see PKP's PQ doing the same thing: conservative nationalists to PLQ/CAQ, progressives to NPD/QS/PLQ, with nothing left but bedrock.

[lilTommy]

FWIW, if you transposed the 2011 federal election results onto the 125 Quebec provincial ridings the results would be:

NDP - 101
Lib - 10
Cons - 8
BQ - 6

The two closest seats would be:

• Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré (BQ by 55 votes over NDP)
• Robert-Baldwin (NDP by 89 votes over Liberal, by 469 votes over Conservative)

If you want to send me the data, I could make a map of it!

OH dear lord YES!

[Hatman 🍁]

Here it is Thanks again, Krago!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Fascinating.

Could I have the data as well? Have some ideas.

[Hatman 🍁]

Turnout:

[Hatman 🍁]

Liberal %

[RogueBeaver]

As the PLQ returns to office after a 19-month break, we learn that the office of Charest's former deputy was allegedly at the heart of a criminal conspiracy.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

LOL

[Hatman 🍁]

Good timing!

PQ %:

[RogueBeaver]

More PLQ corruption: 1 current MNA under UPAC investigation, plus 3 ex-MNAs. Includes a Bahamas offshore account.

[Hatman 🍁]

CAQ support

[Hatman 🍁]

QS %

[Hatman 🍁]

For the lulz: Option Nationale share of the vote

[You kip if you want to...]

How significant was the PQ 2011 crisis in Marois' total failure as Premier?

[RogueBeaver]

How significant was the PQ 2011 crisis in Marois' total failure as Premier?

It showed her to be a weak leader, though to be fair the PQ is very difficult to govern even in ideal conditions. Not a single leader left entirely voluntarily (also: no premier has since 1920). Plus the structural problems were there long before she became leader. For English-language analysis, I'd recommend this. If you want French, this is also excellent.