Quebec: April 7, 2014

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Separatist movements actively thrive on divisions and bitterness between people, not the most honourable style of politics, it has to be said.

Nationalism will always cultivate a sense of superiority, and whether it's the PQ or the SNP in Scotland or any manner of other nationalist/separatist parties, there will always be times when one has to question whether such parties have crossed the 'racist' line.

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Is the PQ not at all worried about how much the polls overestimated them in 2012?

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Is CAQ to go the way of the ADQ?

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Is Quebec heading for another referendum should the PQ get a majority?

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Is it possible to be a nationalist and not be racist?

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How funny would it be if CAQ was able to push PQ into third?

Getting close with Angus Reid.

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So, Pauline Marois is just a crap premier, or the crappiest premier?

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CAQ will be second in the PV.

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So, Pauline Marois is just a crap premier, or the crappiest premier?

Completely blew a winnable writ campaign, very similar to 2003 when she was Landry's deputy. Lousy premier to be sure on the political and policy fronts. Just 2 months ago the PLQ was in disarray (extremely rare for them: last time that happened was the late '60s) and completely incoherent on many policy issues, cartwheeling or waffling. PQ went through many contortions in their first year, which smoothed out last fall.

Looking back at the disaster she was as LotO, I guess nobody should have expected any better from her as Premier.

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I think Krago may have the right idea. People are in denial as to how big a PLQ win this could actually be. If the final polls are right and the PLQ ends up with a double digit lead in the popular vote - it won't be close and in fact the Liberals could get as many as 80 seats. Look at what happened in Quebec in the 2011 federal election when the NDP took 42% and the BQ took 23%? in seats it was NDP 59 and BQ 4!! The first past the post system is very unforgiving when parties lose by a wide margin.

Looking at QC electoral history the closes parallel to this election would be 1970:

PLQ - 45% and 73 seats
PQ - 23% and 7 seats
Union national - 20% and 17 seats
Creditistes - 11% and 12 seats

Sure things have changed since 1970 but this is just an example of how low the PQ seats count could go if they were really doing as badly as the final Forum poll suggests

A 44 year old election result, with a defunct former governing party, can't really tell us much.

The thing about FPTP is that it's unpredictable one way or the other. The PLQ could rack up a healthy PV margin but only be ahead on seats by 10-15 because their support's spread fairly evenly across the province and the PQ's support generally clusters in certain regions. It takes fewer votes to elect a PQ MNA.

This is a massive problem in most systems that use FPTP.

But yes, if the PLQ is over 40 and both the CAQ and the PQ are in the mid-20s, it'll be a landslide anyway.

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Anyone got any French language streams?

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CBC call it for the PLQ!

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CAQ will be second in the PV.

I apologise.

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Early results in Charlevoix. Priceless.

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CBC say it's a majority! Fantastic.

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Worst share of the vote since 1970, their first election, for the PQ.

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QS trailing by less than 100 in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve.

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Great night for the PLQ, but nothing special when compared to past results. Running below 2008 numbers in votes.

And the CAQ aren't doing that badly.

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PLQ back ahead in Charlevoix.

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How significant was the PQ 2011 crisis in Marois' total failure as Premier?