Quebec: April 7, 2014

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Re QS in Montreal: we're also getting close to a 2011 NDP-esque "tipping point" there, so don't get *too* surprised at a bumper crop inclusive of Rosemont...

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Here's a question: has there ever been another circumstance in which two consecutive elections saw a sitting Premier lose his/her own seat?

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I may have missed some prediction that put the CAQ higher than 10-15 seats, but, in any case, what does this election mean for it; I mean, to have gone from semi-annihilation in the polls to actually gaining seats (if not votes) is actually a rather decent feet, all things considered.

Well, come the end, I was *sort of* anticipating such a thing as BQ and CAP neared polling parity--or at least, those forecasts that PQ would still be nearing 50 seats and ADQ struggling to make double digits (or any approximation of a UK '83 Labour-vs-Alliance differential) were looking farfetched...

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The rural third of Anglos voted Unionist in that era, apart from that we've been monolithically Grit since the '30s. Nothing conceivable could shake their hammerlock on the Anglo vote.

Except for something like 1989's Equality Party interlude, of course.

[adma]

QS vote map very interesting. Looks like improvement in the Francophone areas and decrease in the Anglophone areas, suggesting it was possibly a protest party last election for disaffected Liberals (who returned home this election) and a protest party for disaffected PQ's this election.

And a good deal of the CAQ decrease was likewise in the Anglo areas; where they, too, acted as a token viable/non-separatist "protest vote" safe zone in 2012...

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The central riding is Taschereau, which votes like a typical city centre, for a left of centre party (the PQ). QS also had a strong vote there.

Sorta like what Ottawa Centre is relative to the (Ontario) ridings surrounding it.

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The central riding is Taschereau, which votes like a typical city centre, for a left of centre party (the PQ). QS also had a strong vote there.

Sorta like what Ottawa Centre is relative to the (Ontario) ridings surrounding it.

Yes, exactly- though less evident provincially.

True in the last election; but still definitely evident provincially compared to what surrounds it, i.e this is the one seat around these parts where they really *try* to be competitive.  It's just that the Yasir Naqvi reelection machine proved to be more than they bargained for...

[adma]

Wait, you're in Ottawa too?

No--perhaps I oughta said "those" rather than "these".