Quebec: April 7, 2014

[Vosem]

I can't help but think these 'the PQ is eternally doomed' projections remind me of similar ones regarding the Republicans. While party politics in Canada has historically been more fluid than in the US, as long as a significant portion of the population of Quebec supports left-wing, sovereigntist politics there will be room for a party that supports those positions, either the PQ itself or (and I highly doubt this will come to pass) a broadly-similar successor party.

[Vosem]

I can't help but think these 'the PQ is eternally doomed' projections remind me of similar ones regarding the Republicans. While party politics in Canada has historically been more fluid than in the US, as long as a significant portion of the population of Quebec supports left-wing, sovereigntist politics there will be room for a party that supports those positions, either the PQ itself or (and I highly doubt this will come to pass) a broadly-similar successor party.

Who said the PQ is doomed?

No one in this thread, but the article by Don Macpherson you linked to seems to imply it and I get the sense that there are figures out there drawing overbroad conclusions from one poorly-run PQ campaign.

They'll be back in a couple of cycles, but medium to long term some ideological adjustments may be in order. If this current trend holds, which it may not - 20 years ago picture was very different.

Isn't "adjustments to the ideology will be necessary in the future for Party X to stay relevant" a sort of universal truth, though? One Party X's opponents like to bring up as if it were an impossibility every time Party X loses, even though the parties' positions in democratic societies have always tended to be fluid.

[Vosem]

I can't help but think these 'the PQ is eternally doomed' projections remind me of similar ones regarding the Republicans. While party politics in Canada has historically been more fluid than in the US, as long as a significant portion of the population of Quebec supports left-wing, sovereigntist politics there will be room for a party that supports those positions, either the PQ itself or (and I highly doubt this will come to pass) a broadly-similar successor party.

While I wouldn't write the PQ off, in Canada, major political parties do actually disappear from time to time

That's true, but what I was saying was that even in the extremely unlikely event that the PQ does "die", there would be a successor party that would win sovereigntist votes and have a sovereigntist platform, the way that for instance right-wing votes in British Columbia migrated from the Socreds to the Liberals (or even the way that in Quebec the CAQ absorbed the ADQ). Political parties do die in Canada, but people continue to vote.

[Vosem]

Here are predictions -- I doubt I'll have time to take more than a cursory look at the Forum poll, so probably the final predictions:

Liberal 62 (all others)
Parti Quebecois 47 (Abitibi-Ouest, Beauharnois, Berthier, Bertrand, Bonaventure, Borduas, Bourget, Chambly, Champlain, Charlevoix-Cote-de-Beaupre, Chicoutimi, Cremazie, Deux-Montagnes, Dubuc, Duplessis, Gaspe, Groulx, Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, Iberville, Iles-de-la-Madeleine, Johnson, Joliette, Jonquiere, Labelle, Lac-Saint-Jean, Marie-Victorin, Masson, Matane-Matapedia, Mirabel, Pointe-aux-Trembles, Rene-Levesque, Repentigny, Richelieu, Rimouski, Roberval, Rosemont, Rousseau, Saint-Hyacinthe, Saint-Jean, Saint-Jerome, Sanguinet, Taillon, Taschereau, Terrebonne, Ungava, Vachon, Vercheres)
Coalition Avenir Quebec 12 (Arthabaska, Beauce-Nord, Blainville, Chauveau, Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere, Drummond-Bois-Francs, Granby, La Peltrie, L'Assomption, Levis, Montarville, Portneuf)
Quebec Solidaire 3 (Gouin, Mercier, Saint-Marie-Saint-Jacques)
Independent (Fatima Houda-Pepin) 1 (La Piniere)

[Vosem]

Got excited when I saw the Liberal leading Gouin, but it's with just 40 votes (total) counted. Shame on the bad CAQ performance.

[Vosem]

Marois trailing in her own riding. If a big enough majority, she could lose. She's lost before: the Gritnami in '85.

By 6 votes...

[Vosem]

Astonishingly close three-way in Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques -- right now, 31% for the PQ, 30% for the PLQ, and 29% for QS. And the QS is also trailing just 34%-32% in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve. But Fontecilla is down 13% in Laurier-Dorion and the QS candidate is down 12% in Rosemont (which is third place, behind both the PQ and the PLQ).

[Vosem]

Less than 300 votes separating 1st from 3rd place in Saint-Hyacinthe. Unreally close two-way election in Sherbrooke, too (Liberal leads PQ -- Serge Cardin, who I thought was possible future leadership material -- by less than 100 votes). Then, in Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques, there's just a 65-vote difference between first and third place...

And everything to the north of Montreal is a few percentage points of a three-way race between the PLQ, the PQ, and the CAQ.

[Vosem]

Groulx is also a ridiculously close 3 way, PLQ leads by 6 with 2/3 reporting.

And Blainville, right next door. The only really decisive victory I can find anywhere in that area is Legault's 15% blowout in L'Assomption, funny considering he was thought of as dead meat at the beginning of the campaign. It's a sad kind of funny, I suppose, that Paquette was supposed to eventually be the BQ leader and a key House of Commons player -- he's on the receiving end of Legault's margin tonight.

[Vosem]

QS took the lead in Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques.

91 votes between QS and PLQ, in (I really can't stress enough how close that riding is) third place.

[Vosem]

All ridings have been called except Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques, where QS candidate Manon Masse is hanging on to a slim lead, currently 69 votes, against PLQ candidate Anna Klisko, with PQ incumbent Daniel Breton back in third place.

Aside from this, the Liberals have 70 seats (majority government), the PQ has 30 (and Marois is gone), the CAQ 22 (modest gains), and the QS 2 seats.

Can the Quebeckers on this thread enlighten me as to who the candidates for next leader of the PQ are, or is that not going to be clear now for some time?