Quebec: April 7, 2014

[lilTommy]

How hard is the PQ running on that sketchy laïcité law?

Didn't heard about it this month, through obviously, right now, media is obsessed by Winter Olympics.

A few friends are talking/thinking the QS could sweep up the PQs left-wing vote in Montreal primarily due to the charter and the PQs even more obvious move the the social-right, which will sour their vote in some key battle ridings in the central/DT areas.
Also, the NPDQ is still grossly under organized to be any real threat... the federal party should have made the effort back in 2006 to built a provincial wing, when the Sherbrooke Declaration was first drawn up. So no go there, the progressives should start to rally more around QS, outside of the west island that is

[lilTommy]

The PQ has done the math, they can afford to sacrifice the multicultural, multilingual Montreal in order to gain in the francophone regions which are much more apt to swing from CAQ to PQ then on the Island to swing PLQ to PQ. Any gains made by QS would be more then offset by gains in the regions. Plus there are very few riding on the island that will swing, those that do are 3-4 way races now.
for me it's QS over PQ because they are more decidedly Social Democratic/Socialist then the PQ; I'd love for the NPDQ to be viable, but not the case; UCQ was a good shot but didn't go anywhere really, perhaps this time if they can grab some bigger named candidates.
Anyway, just read the gov't is fast tracking the Euthanasia law... sometimes i love quebec, other times, not

[lilTommy]

More candidate news: fat doctor running as official PLQ, Desjardins in Groulx, Houda-Pepin as an indie PLQ.

regardless of how you see the PQ, they sure do a great job at mobilizing young militants (under 30) to be active and run for the party, and not just as poteau's: Desjardins has a real shot of winning Groulx, it was held in 2008 by the PQ, seems top be tossed about. Anyway my point, the PQ has MNA's like Traversy, Bureau-Blouin, Turcotte, former recent MNA's Guillaume Tremblay and Alexis Wawanoloath. I give them credit for that.

[lilTommy]

Leger poll regional breaks (change from last election, calculations by me)

Montreal CMA:
PLQ: 40 (+6)
PQ: 35 (+5)
CAQ: 12 (-12)
QS: 8 (n/c)
PVQ: 3 (+2)
ON: 1 (-1)
Oth: 1 (n/c)

Quebec City CMA:
PLQ: 32 (+1)
PQ: 31 (+9)
CAQ: 24 (-14)
QS: 8 (+3)
PVQ: 2 (+2)
ON: 2 (n/c)
Oth: 1 (-1)

Other regions:
PQ: 40 (+4)
PLQ: 29 (n/c)
CAQ: 17 (-10)
QS: 8 (+4)
PVQ: 2 (+1)
ON: 1 (-1)
Oth: 2  (+1)

So CAQ is going to lose a large number of seats... but who is most likely to benefit from the loss of CAQ vote; PLQ in MTL? or overall the PQ everywhere?
Interesting to see QS growing its support outside MTL

[lilTommy]

About what I thought, especially since the PVQ is more "eco-socialist" now... i'm less sovereigntist then QS, that should explain that... would have loved to see UCQ there just to see how i would fall in line with them

GRN-75%
QS-73%
ON-66%
PQ-55%
QLP-50%
CAQ-45%
CPQ-40%

[lilTommy]

More retirements: Breton and Malavoy.

I haven't heard about Daniel Breton. Maybe you mean Daniel Ratthé (Blainville).

He was sitting as independent after being booted from CAQ caucus. He was PQ before switching to CAQ.

Out of the four CAQ ridings in the northern Montreal surburbs from last election, it means only Legault is running again.

I thought Breton wasn't running? probably shouldn't though, the guy goes through parties like tissue (Greens, NDP, PQ) and he's got a lot of personal baggage from the alleged intimidation of government employees, the unpaid rent, had been convicted of employment insurance cheating and had speeding violations.
If he's running, QS only lost by about 10% so... ya it will always be a target for them, maybe third time is the charm for Manon Masse

[lilTommy]

Ste Marie - St. Jacques would've been a better choice for Fonticiella, but him running in Laurier-Dorion  puts that riding in play.  Both Khadir and David received an average of 8% boosts in each election they were leader, and 1/3 of that boost came from Liberal voters. 

And running in Ste-Marie--St-Jacques would have required to remove Manon Massé as their candidate (at every election since that 2005 by-election, the first ever contested by QS).

QS feeling emboldened is probably targeting both; they are in reality there two best shots at winning, SMSJ first since they cam ein second but both are targets since they were only about 10% behind the winner, but LD has a "more important, higher level" candidate for the party who i think performed beyond expectations in 2012.

[lilTommy]

PQ not running a candidate in la Piniere to help the QLP-now Indie Houda-Pepin
http://quebec.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/03/14/pq-pas-de-candidat-la-piniere-fatima-houda-pepin-_n_4964712.html?utm_hp_ref=politique

[lilTommy]

Major news flash. New CROP poll has the Quebec Liberals pulling into the lead!

PLQ - 39% (+3)
PQ - 36% (no change)
CAQ - 13% (-4)
QS - 10% (+2)

A three point lead for the PLQ would move the Libs into a plurality of seats

Do we have regional breakdown? If that boost is all MTL then i doubt it. I'm Happy to see QS moving up to!

[lilTommy]

http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/dossiers/elections-quebecoises/201403/19/01-4749435-rimouski-lex-bloquiste-suzanne-tremblay-appuie-qs.php

Former longtime BQ MP Suzanne Tremblay endorses the QS candidate... seems a very local focus since she's upset that a local young "activist" was passed over for a drop in candidate with backroom ties... and PKP and the Charter

[lilTommy]

More Labour support for QS:
http://fr.canoe.ca/archives/infos/quebeccanada/2014/03/20140323-162749.html

The Conseil central du Montréal métropolitain (CCMM-CSN) endorses QS over the PQ for a number of reasons (PKP, the last 18months in government for that matter)

Is this not the first big organized Labour group to switch or to actually come out in favour of one of the parties?

[lilTommy]

Montreal Island
PLQ: 45 (-3)
PQ: 23 (-2)
QS: 19 (+9)
CAQ: 9 (n/c)
ON: 1 (-3)
Oth: 3 (-1)

What was the breakdown of how the island voted in 2012?

If the poll works out 37/29/19/13 to be true; in 2012 it was 40/43/15/6 - that's a good solid recovery for CAQ, does it not mean gains rather then any losses? and more then double increase in support for QS which undoubtedly is focused on MTL (that's why I was wondering what the island voted in 2012), could they not win the 4 they are pushing hard on?

The PQs Tuition increase last year also probably had an effect on those 18-24 numbers, since they talked about being against the Charest plan but then when and introduced a Charest-lite plan.

[lilTommy]

QS got about 13% on the Island in 2012 if memory serves me well. I can get you the numbers later.

If QS is at 19%, one would think that's good enough for at least 4 seats. However, I think the poll is an outlier, as most polls have shown QS doing worse than last time on the island.

Your right so far, unless we can see more polling done to back this trend up...
I'm assuming party internal polls are probably not the most reliable? taken with a grain of salt... but I just read on Jean Trudelle's FB page: "Un député solidaire dans Rosemont? C'est maintenant possible! Nos sondages internes nous placent en avance! A solidarity Member for Rosemont? It is now possible! Our internal polls put us in advance!" - Hes' the QS candidate in Rosemont. Lisee being defeated sounds unrealistic to me no?

[lilTommy]

Rosemont is a very left wing neighbourhood of Montreal, it's entirely possible that QS could pick it up.

Speaking of which, has anyone seen any riding specific polls? I'm surprised there hasn't been any.

The reason i'm on the "surprised" side is that Rosemont, based on 2012 results, would be only their 7th seat on the island...
3rd - SMSJ - 25%
4th - Laurier-Dorion - 24%
5th - Hochelaga-Maisonneauve - 23%
6th - Outremont - 18%
7th - Rosemont - 14%
... Now i would think Rosemont would go QS before Outremont would?

[lilTommy]

FWIW, if you transposed the 2011 federal election results onto the 125 Quebec provincial ridings the results would be:

NDP - 101
Lib - 10
Cons - 8
BQ - 6

The two closest seats would be:

• Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré (BQ by 55 votes over NDP)
• Robert-Baldwin (NDP by 89 votes over Liberal, by 469 votes over Conservative)

If you want to send me the data, I could make a map of it!

OH dear lord YES!