Quebec: April 7, 2014

[Krago]

It could be a slippery slope though, what's next, a Mandarin debate in BC?

You know perfectly well that English and French are official languages in Canada (though only New Brunswick is officially bilingual at the provincial level) - Mandarin has no legal status in canada

That's not what would stop a Mandarin debate.

I would have enjoyed seeing a U.S. Presidential debate in French between John Kerry and Mitt Romney.

[Krago]

Here is how downtown Montreal voted in the last provincial election.




(ADQ should be CAQ below.)

[Krago]

Have you seen any recent Quebec cross-tabs showing federal vote vs. provincial vote?

[Krago]

This is astounding.
 
From the Ipsos poll, voters between 18 and 34 years of age:
 
Lib - 39%
QS - 23%
CAQ - 18%
PQ - 16%

[Krago]

(1)  When is the CROP gonna drop?

(2)  Hatman, when you say 'we' are going to release a QC poll, who is 'we'?

[Krago]

Thanks, Hatman.

Is it provincial only, or will there be a federal vote question?  I would love to see a cross-tab of federal vs. provincial support in Quebec.

[Krago]

Quebec area code map

http://www.cnac.ca/area_code_maps/southern_quebec_area_code_map_highres.png

Here's my comparison between the EKOS poll and the 2012 results, as best as I can divide the ridings by area code.

Quebec
2012:  PQ 31.9, LIB 31.2, CAQ 27.1, QS 6.0, AUT 3.8
2014:  PQ 26.3, LIB 40.0, CAQ 21.0, QS 9.6, AUT 3.1

514 Montreal, excl. Laval
2012:  PQ 23.9, LIB 44.9, CAQ 15.4, QS 11.9, AUT 3.9
2014:  PQ 20.3, LIB 47.5, CAQ 14.4, QS 15.3, AUT 2.5

450 Couronne, incl. Laval
2012: PQ 36.5, LIB 23.8, CAQ 31.7, QS 4.5, AUT 3.5
2014: PQ 28.8, LIB 30.3, CAQ 27.4, QS 9.2, AUT 4.4

819 West and Central Quebec
2012: PQ 32.9, LIB 32.5, CAQ 24.9, QS 5.0, AUT 4.7
2014: PQ 26.6, LIB 46.4, CAQ 17.2, QS 8.2, AUT 1.5

418 Saguenay and Eastern Quebec
2012: PQ 31.0, LIB 30.2, CAQ 31.1, QS 4.2, AUT 3.5
2014: PQ 29.1, LIB 38.7, CAQ 23.2, QS 5.7, AUT 3.4

[Krago]

New Leger Poll: Lib 38%, PQ 29%, CAQ 23%, QS 9%

[Krago]

514 Montreal, excl. Laval

Which ridings did you use for 418 and 819?

514   Acadie, Anjou-Louis-Riel, Bourassa-Sauvé, Bourget, Crémazie, D'Arcy-McGee, Gouin, Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, Jacques-Cartier, Jeanne-Mance-Viger, LaFontaine, Laurier-Dorion, Marguerite-Bourgeoys, Marquette, Mercier, Mont-Royal, Nelligan, Notre-Dame-de-Grâce, Outremont, Pointe-aux-Trembles, Robert-Baldwin, Rosemont, Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques, Saint-Henri-Sainte-Anne, Saint-Laurent, Verdun, Viau, Westmount-Saint-Louis

450   Argenteuil, Beauharnois, Berthier, Bertrand, Blainville, Borduas, Brome-Missisquoi, Chambly, Châteauguay, Chomedey, Deux-Montagnes, Fabre, Granby, Groulx, Huntingdon, Iberville, Joliette, La Pinière, La Prairie, Laporte, L'Assomption, Laval-des-Rapides, Marie-Victorin, Masson, Mille-Îles, Mirabel, Montarville, Repentigny, Richelieu, Rousseau, Sainte-Rose, Saint-Hyacinthe, Saint-Jean, Saint-Jérôme, Sanguinet, Soulanges, Taillon, Terrebonne, Vachon, Vaudreuil, Verchères, Vimont

819   Abitibi-Est, Abitibi-Ouest, Arthabaska, Champlain, Chapleau, Drummond-Bois-Francs, Gatineau, Hull, Johnson, Labelle, Laviolette, Maskinongé, Mégantic, Nicolet-Bécancour, Orford, Papineau, Pontiac, Richmond, Rouyn-Noranda-Témiscamingue, Saint-François, Saint-Maurice, Sherbrooke, Trois-Rivières, Ungava

418   Beauce-Nord, Beauce-Sud, Bellechasse, Bonaventure, Charlesbourg, Charlevoix-Côte-de-Beaupré, Chauveau, Chicoutimi, Chutes-de-la-Chaudière, Côte-du-Sud, Dubuc, Duplessis, Gaspé, Îles-de-la-Madeleine, Jean-Lesage, Jean-Talon, Jonquière, La Peltrie, Lac-Saint-Jean, Lévis, Lotbinière-Frontenac, Louis-Hébert, Matane-Matapédia, Montmorency, Portneuf, René-Lévesque, Rimouski, Rivière-du-Loup-Témiscouata, Roberval, Taschereau, Vanier-Les Rivières

[Krago]

This of course is subject to change if there are any last minute polls.

Will there be another CROP or Forum poll tonight or is it too late for that?

[Krago]

Final Forum poll:  Lib 44, PQ 24, CAQ 23, QS 6

Forum Poll Details

[Krago]

They're goin' down.  I'm yellin' "Timber!".
 
Lib - 78
CAQ - 22
PQ - 21
QS - 4

[Krago]

If every single QS voter had chosen the PQ instead, the results would have been:  Lib 63, PQ 51, CAQ 11

The Liberals dropped in vote share in just one seat (Arthabaska), while the PQ went up in three (Nicolet-Bécancour, Matane-Matapédia, Soulanges).  The PQ dropped in support in their only new seat (Saint-Jerome), while the CAQ went down in three seats that they gained from the PQ (Bourduas, Deux-Montagnes, Repentigny).

The PQ lost six seats to the Liberals that they had won by a margin greater than 10% in 2012.  All of them are about as far away from Montreal as you can get (Charlevoix-Côte-de-Beaupré, Dubuc, Îles-de-la-Madeleine, Roberval, Rouyn-Noranda-Témiscamingue, Ungava).

The PQ defended 16 seats won by a margin of less than 8% in 2012.  They lost 15 of them, only holding on to Rousseau.


Here are the seats that switched parties:

CAQ to Liberal
Charlesbourg
La Prairie
Montmorency
Portneuf
Vanier-Les Rivières

CAQ to PQ
Saint-Jérôme

PQ to CAQ
Borduas
Chambly
Deux-Montagnes
Iberville
Johnson
Masson
Mirabel
Repentigny
Saint-Hyacinthe

PQ to Liberal
Abitibi-Est
Argenteuil
Champlain
Charlevoix-Côte-de-Beaupré
Crémazie
Dubuc
Îles-de-la-Madeleine
Laval-des-Rapides
Roberval
Rouyn-Noranda-Témiscamingue
Sainte-Rose
Saint-François
Saint-Maurice
Sherbrooke
Ungava

PQ to QS
Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques

[Krago]

I have sat through many election nights.  The longest was 2000 Bush v. Gore; the shortest was the 2003 Toronto municipal election - 80% of the polls reported by 8:05 while I was still in my car.

But I have never seen anything comparable to what happened to the CAQ last night.  With half of the ridings reporting around 8:30pm, the CAQ was leading in just one seat (according to the CBC).  When all the results were tallied, the CAQ managed to win 22 ridings.  Sometimes you get bizarre preliminary results when elections stretch across five time zones, but I haven't seen such an extreme case.

[Krago]

One reason people should wait until election day to vote. 

How very Republican of you.

[Krago]

Remember Smid, I use "Atlas colours" Much like Dave Leip's colour reversal, I have reversed the PQ and CAQ colours (Wikipedia agrees with me though). I'd prefer to keep all conservative parties blue and all separatist parties in teal.

All the cool kids use violet instead of teal.

[Krago]

FWIW, if you transposed the 2011 federal election results onto the 125 Quebec provincial ridings the results would be:

NDP - 101
Lib - 10
Cons - 8
BQ - 6

The two closest seats would be:

• Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré (BQ by 55 votes over NDP)
• Robert-Baldwin (NDP by 89 votes over Liberal, by 469 votes over Conservative)