Quebec: April 7, 2014

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NOTRE RAI PAYS

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The PQ certainly isn't far-right or fascistic or anything, but it is kind of a bit racist. But then the Liberals are kind of entirely corrupt.

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Happily, someone has recently written a totes unbiased and in all respects reasonable and accurate guide to the parties of Quebec here.

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It's a reference to Infinite Jest

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No, the NPDQ will win a surprise majority (to their horror) in four years time.

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No, not a racist party at all.

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Considering that the PQ's reputation for being maybe just a little bit racist has clearly damaged it electorally over the years (even if it hasn't cost votes directly, it sure helps to drive up minority turnout for the PLQ), it's weird that they don't seem to have done anything to address it. Of course that's partly because... you know... but you'd think they would at least have learned to be a bit more... presentable.

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Beware of poll internals

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I'm not saying that you should dismiss them entirely. In Canada in particular what choice do you have? But, you know, be careful. If something looks wrong, then it probably is...

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Presumably the PLQ led there in 1985?

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It was held by Liberals until 2004

Though that was mostly (entirely?) because the Liberal candidate was John Christian.

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Claims of spectacular internal polls are generally best read as ramping.

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This is hilarious.

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I think Krago may have the right idea. People are in denial as to how big a PLQ win this could actually be. If the final polls are right and the PLQ ends up with a double digit lead in the popular vote - it won't be close and in fact the Liberals could get as many as 80 seats. Look at what happened in Quebec in the 2011 federal election when the NDP took 42% and the BQ took 23%? in seats it was NDP 59 and BQ 4!! The first past the post system is very unforgiving when parties lose by a wide margin.

^^^

Of course the polls might be exaggerating the scale of the impending rout (this being Canada, after all). But it must be noted that the PQ don't have many seats with huge majorities: the tendency is for solid ones. Which is normally fine, but might be problematic if the late-polls situation is the actual one.

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Landslide

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Dire PQ results in the north

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The PQ's hilariously bad showing in Montreal ought to give them pause for thought.

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The PQ have now suffered two genuinely humiliating defeats in seven years. It is being trashed in some of its traditional strongholds. The message ought to be pretty fycking clear.

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Fascinating.

Could I have the data as well? Have some ideas.

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LOL