Quebec: April 7, 2014

[Hatman 🍁]

I'll try to get a preliminary projection map up ASAP (next few days). I'll see how much time I have. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Good! Hopefully PQ finally wins an absolute majority.

I didn't realize you were a fan of Front nationale-style xenophobia from the PQ?

Anotnio is a bit of a troll, don't mind him.

[Hatman 🍁]

Last election, I was rooting for the PQ to win more seats than the Liberals, to be honest. I hated Charest's neo-liberal ideology, his handling of the student strike, etc. However, the PQ has turned out to be far-right when it comes to cultural issues, like you'd find in Europe with parities like Front National. I do not support racist parties. And so, I I'm back to rooting for the Liberals

I should note that if I lived in Quebec, I'd be voting UCQ.

[Hatman 🍁]

It wont be the first time someone has told me English Canadians like myself just don't understand Quebec politics (often it come from me expressing my concerns about the pro sovereignty views of Quebec solidaire). Fair enough. I don't live in Quebec (and I don't speak French), so I can only judge the parties from what I hear in the English media. And it doesn't matter if it's CBC or Sun News, the media hates the PQ in the ROC.

I'm also a child of the 1990s, and the Quebec referendum (and the lead up) was a traumatic experience for a 9 year old living on the Ontario-Quebec border.

[Hatman 🍁]

I should note that if I lived in Quebec, I'd be voting UCQ.

Last news I heard, most founding members have left, saying than the party has been hijacked.

EDIT: More exactly, by regionalists wanting to create regional assemblies.

Hmm, I can live with that. Devolution would be an interesting idea. I would support it for Ontario (especially, Northern Ontario which should have its own Assembly like Scotland)

[Hatman 🍁]

The Grits tried to recruit Marian Statsny in Lévis.

Politics runs in the family, his brother is an MEP in Slovakia.

[Hatman 🍁]

An election again?

I'm surprised it's lasted this long.

[Hatman 🍁]

I made a map using the crop numbers, but now I have to start over. Should've known there'd be a poll released.

[Hatman 🍁]

I made a map using the crop numbers, but now I have to start over. Should've known there'd be a poll released.

Do you have my base map? I'm pretty sure it's up to date.

Yes, I have it, and it's the one I used.

[Hatman 🍁]

Leger poll regional breaks (change from last election, calculations by me)

Montreal CMA:
PLQ: 40 (+6)
PQ: 35 (+5)
CAQ: 12 (-12)
QS: 8 (n/c)
PVQ: 3 (+2)
ON: 1 (-1)
Oth: 1 (n/c)

Quebec City CMA:
PLQ: 32 (+1)
PQ: 31 (+9)
CAQ: 24 (-14)
QS: 8 (+3)
PVQ: 2 (+2)
ON: 2 (n/c)
Oth: 1 (-1)

Other regions:
PQ: 40 (+4)
PLQ: 29 (n/c)
CAQ: 17 (-10)
QS: 8 (+4)
PVQ: 2 (+1)
ON: 1 (-1)
Oth: 2  (+1)

[Hatman 🍁]

I will be releasing my numbers soon, be patient

I just took the vote compass: http://www.cbc.ca/elections/quebecvotes2014/features/view/vote-compass

PVQ: 68%
ON: 55% :
QS: 52%
Cons: 46% :
PLQ: 46%
PQ: 43%
CAQ: 39%

According to the chart, QS is the most left wing party, but only slightly more left than the Greens.

[Hatman 🍁]

I will be releasing my numbers soon, be patient

I just took the vote compass: http://www.cbc.ca/elections/quebecvotes2014/features/view/vote-compass

PVQ: 68%
ON: 55% :
QS: 52%
Cons: 46% :
PLQ: 46%
PQ: 43%
CAQ: 39%

According to the chart, QS is the most left wing party, but only slightly more left than the Greens.

Alex Tyrrell, the new Green leader (and former federal NDP candidate), transformed the Green party in an "ecosocialist" party, according to his own words.

The only provincial Green party worth voting for. I think I'd still vote UCQ if they were running.

My support would go:

1) UCQ
2) PVQ
3) QS
4) PLQ
5) CAQ
6) ON
7) PQ

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are my week 1 projections: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/03/2014-quebec-provincial-election-week-1.html

You may begin your criticisms now.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are my week 1 projections: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/03/2014-quebec-provincial-election-week-1.html

You may begin your criticisms now.

Perhaps you should disable the spelling corrector in OpenOffice.

How embarrassing!  These things just become a blur after a while, and you don't even notice them.

[Hatman 🍁]

Dunno how your (and TCTC/308) model accounts for Houda-Pepin as I-PLQ in La Piniere, or indies in general.

I don't know much about her, but I suspect she carries little personal vote with her. I'll probably look up the average % an independent incumbent gets over the last few elections and give her that. What do others think? 

[Hatman 🍁]

I've updated my charts to remove the spell check, and to also show the 2012 election winner for comparison.

[Hatman 🍁]

How many times will the Anglo media ask about an English debate?

Interestingly there are just as many franco-Ontarians as there are anglo-Quebecers and yet the francophone media in Ontario wouldn't even dream of asking Mme. Wynne, Mme. Horwath and M. Hudak to have a debate in French and if they did they would be laughed out of the room!

The same number, or the same proportions? Big difference.

It could be a slippery slope though, what's next, a Mandarin debate in BC?

[Hatman 🍁]

It could be a slippery slope though, what's next, a Mandarin debate in BC?

You know perfectly well that English and French are official languages in Canada (though only New Brunswick is officially bilingual at the provincial level) - Mandarin has no legal status in canada

That's not what would stop a Mandarin debate.

[Hatman 🍁]

FR poll:

PLQ: 40
PQ: 38
CAQ: 12
QS: 7
PVQ: 2
Oth: 1

Montreal (I assume this is the CMA)
PLQ: 42
PQ: 38
CAQ: 9
QS: 7
PVQ: 3
Oth: 1

Quebec City (CMA?)
PLQ: 46
PQ: 24
CAQ: 22
QS: 5
PVQ: 2

ROQ
PQ: 44
PLQ: 34
CAQ: 12
QS: 7
PVQ: 1
Oth: 1

According to FR, this gives the PQ a one seat majority. I'll run it through my numbers tomorrow.

[Hatman 🍁]

Pumping the FR poll into my model I get:

PQ: 65
PLQ: 58
QS: 2
CAQ: 0 (!)

This is due to the huge PLQ lead in Quebec City right now, where CAQ has most of their 'strong' seats.

[Hatman 🍁]

So, Canada's Rupert Murdoch is running for a leftist separatist party? OK

Does he know his media empire rests a lot on anti-Quebec populist sentiment?

[Hatman 🍁]

My guess is he won't do much talking. PQ is aiming for the CAQ vote and ignoring QS.

True. CAQ collapse is key to winning a majority. I don't see much hemorrhaging to the QS over this. QS wont be winning anything outside the island, and I can't see them picking up more than 2 seats there (if any).

[Hatman 🍁]

Aren't the unions in bed with the PQ? What will the do now?

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm curious; in what way does a party like QS not share the same views as the FTQ?

[Hatman 🍁]

So, no regional breaks? Grrr.