Quebec: April 7, 2014

[DC Al Fine]

However, the PQ has turned out to be far-right when it comes to cultural issues, like you'd find in Europe with parities like Front National. I do not support racist parties.

I'm seeing than the English media have continued their desinformation campaign.

Well, they have a habit of making minorities... uncomfortable

[DC Al Fine]

I wonder who would lead the PLQ if both Couillard and Moreau lost their seats.

Charest

[DC Al Fine]

Happily, someone has recently written a totes unbiased and in all respects reasonable and accurate guide to the parties of Quebec here.

You forgot Option Nationale

[DC Al Fine]

Why did they include the Conservative Party? Are they running a full slate or something?

[DC Al Fine]

My guess is he won't do much talking. PQ is aiming for the CAQ vote and ignoring QS.

True. CAQ collapse is key to winning a majority. I don't see much hemorrhaging to the QS over this. QS wont be winning anything outside the island, and I can't see them picking up more than 2 seats there (if any).

Indeed. Barring some major breakthrough, QS's ceiling is 3-4 seats and that would involve major issues with the Liberals & PQ.

[DC Al Fine]

Krago's map seems like a good argument  against Fonticella winning. That's a pretty big unreachable block of PLQ voters in the southern part of the riding.

[DC Al Fine]

Legault's going hard after Marois.

[DC Al Fine]

The question everyone wants to know the answer to: Will the Liberals break 90% in D'Arcy McGee?

[DC Al Fine]

FTR, I think the Parti Conservateur has the most candidates of any minor party (assuming Option Nationale is a major party)

[DC Al Fine]

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[DC Al Fine]

So who picks up her seat? The Bloc maybe?

[DC Al Fine]

Finally, a public poll!

It's been an effing week

[DC Al Fine]

Holy crap, the CAQ might actually do ok.

[DC Al Fine]

Apparently an Angus Reid poll has the Liberals at 39, the PQ at 27 and the CAQ at 25. Could the CAQ actually do rather well for itself?

Yes and no.

 More than 2/3 of CAQ's seats were won by less than 10%, so even a marginal drop will cost them dearly. They should avoid disaster and do much better than what was expected at the start of the campaign. Assuming current numbers hold, they ought to retain a core of half a dozen seats or so instead of the 2-3 that people were expecting a week or two ago.

[DC Al Fine]

Predictions anyone?

PLQ: 72
PQ: 42
CAQ: 8
QS: 3 (Saint-Marie-Saint Jacques is the 3rd)

This of course is subject to change if there are any last minute polls.

[DC Al Fine]

Liberals @ 91% in D'Arcy McGee. Must be a fun time knocking on doors there as a Liberal

[DC Al Fine]

Most of the "secular charter" (unfortunately, IMO) has all-party support. Had Marois compromised last fall it would've sailed through. But since those wedge provisions were part of their (failed) political strategy, no compromise.

Why? I would've figured that the Liberals would be too afraid to piss off the Allophones (and to a lesser extent the Anglos).

FTR, my vote would've been for Parti Unite Nationale (yes they only had 3 candidates, but they had one in "my" riding*)

*Charlesbourg