If the nomination process got out of the hands of the elites, it's possible. Palin is a hero (actually, a heroine) to a whole lot of Republicans who represent the most vibrant and vital part of today's GOP. On her own, she doesn't make gaffes. She lies, but she's a slick liar, and a lot of folks want to believe what she says.
In this polarized electorate, she'd lose, but not terribly. I think she would do no worse than Romney in 2012. I can't see a state that Romney carried that she'd lose. If events played into her hands, she could tip FL, OH, VA, and NH.
We are at a point where it doesn't matter a whole lot who the candidates of each party are. Hardened partisanship is at an all time high and increasing. Palin has a big following, and she has a hustle. She's experienced, and she'll never allow untrusted "handlers" to make her look foolish. She's a snake, but more than one snake has occupied the Oval Office.
I'd bet almost anything that Clinton would win NC and AR over Palin. You could VERY easily throw GA, AZ, IN, WV and maybe even several others once Palin opened her mouth. Are people completely forgetting how Hillary ran in the '08 primaries?? She was folksy and then some. She is too smart to allow Palin to paint her as an elitist East Coast liberal; she'd come off as the smarter of two candidates running to help the working and middle classes. She'd kill her.
