Could Sarah Palin be the 2016 nominee?

[Fuzzy Bear]

If the nomination process got out of the hands of the elites, it's possible.  Palin is a hero (actually, a heroine) to a whole lot of Republicans who represent the most vibrant and vital part of today's GOP.  On her own, she doesn't make gaffes.  She lies, but she's a slick liar, and a lot of folks want to believe what she says.

In this polarized electorate, she'd lose, but not terribly.  I think she would do no worse than Romney in 2012.  I can't see a state that Romney carried that she'd lose.  If events played into her hands, she could tip FL, OH, VA, and NH. 

We are at a point where it doesn't matter a whole lot who the candidates of each party are.  Hardened partisanship is at an all time high and increasing.  Palin has a big following, and she has a hustle.  She's experienced, and she'll never allow untrusted "handlers" to make her look foolish.  She's a snake, but more than one snake has occupied the Oval Office.

[Fuzzy Bear]

If the nomination process got out of the hands of the elites, it's possible.  Palin is a hero (actually, a heroine) to a whole lot of Republicans who represent the most vibrant and vital part of today's GOP.  On her own, she doesn't make gaffes.  She lies, but she's a slick liar, and a lot of folks want to believe what she says.

In this polarized electorate, she'd lose, but not terribly.  I think she would do no worse than Romney in 2012.  I can't see a state that Romney carried that she'd lose.  If events played into her hands, she could tip FL, OH, VA, and NH. 

We are at a point where it doesn't matter a whole lot who the candidates of each party are.  Hardened partisanship is at an all time high and increasing.  Palin has a big following, and she has a hustle.  She's experienced, and she'll never allow untrusted "handlers" to make her look foolish.  She's a snake, but more than one snake has occupied the Oval Office.

No because she already looks foolish.

Never makes a gaffe? How about too dumb to even name her favorite founding father?

To make a "gaffe", you usually have to be kind of non-controversial BEFORE you put your foot in your mouth.  Once you do, most of what you say that's on the edge is expected of you.  People expect edgy, inflammatory statements from Palin, so she doesn't lose ground by making them.  When she's called a liar, she's skilled in "I know you are, but what am I?" retorts.  She's pretty Teflon, if the truth be known.

I don't think it's possible for any candidate of either party to get less than 46% of the vote, which was McCain's 2008 total, barring a 3rd party candidate that shook it all up.  We are that polarized and hardened.  Elections are about a tiny, tiny group of middle-of-the-road voters in select states.  It would be tough for Palin to be elected President, but she's hardly "unelectable".  Not in the environment we have today.

[Fuzzy Bear]

CLINTON (D) 53%  396 EV
PALIN     (R) 45%  142 EV

[Fuzzy Bear]

The idea that Palin would defeat Hillary in Alaska of all places is absurd.

Not really.  Palin has burned a lot of bridges in Alaska, and is at the center of a personal feud with the Murkowski family.  While she defeated Frank Murkowski in the 2006 GOP Primary for Governor, Murkowski remains one of the richest men in Alaska.  She tried to crush Lisa Murkowski, but she came back from a primary defeat to keep her seat in a write-in.  There are a lot of Republicans in AK who hate Palin and would be able to organize a campaign to sabotage her Presidential bid in AK.

[Fuzzy Bear]

The idea that Palin would defeat Hillary in Alaska of all places is absurd.

Not really.  Palin has burned a lot of bridges in Alaska, and is at the center of a personal feud with the Murkowski family.  While she defeated Frank Murkowski in the 2006 GOP Primary for Governor, Murkowski remains one of the richest men in Alaska.  She tried to crush Lisa Murkowski, but she came back from a primary defeat to keep her seat in a write-in.  There are a lot of Republicans in AK who hate Palin and would be able to organize a campaign to sabotage her Presidential bid in AK.

Didn't you just argue for SWE's case?

Wow, I read that wrong.  I thought he was saying it was ridiculous to think Hillary would beat Palin in Alaska (the reverse of what he said).

I think she'd carry Alaska vs. Hillary, but it would be super-duper close, and for reasons mentioned, she might well not do so.