Al Smith in 2008?
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  Al Smith in 2008?
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beaver2.0
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« on: February 20, 2014, 11:38:02 AM »

If Al Smith, that Nu Yorket, was inn the Demmocrayic Prymariees in 2008, how woulf he habv done, and would he be elected POTUS?
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #1 on: February 20, 2014, 02:30:33 PM »
« Edited: February 20, 2014, 02:32:42 PM by Kalwejt »

Please learn how to write.
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Cathcon
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« Reply #2 on: February 20, 2014, 03:22:56 PM »

Ordinarily I would post a sarcastic 2008 map that looks just like 1928, but since my mouse isn't working and I've resorted to using the laptop mouse pad or whatever, I'll refrain this time around.
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beaver2.0
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« Reply #3 on: February 20, 2014, 05:41:31 PM »

Sometimes mobile phones suck for writing.

Maybe I should rerphrase my question.  It is basically, how would Al Smiths views do for him in the modern Democratic party?
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badgate
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« Reply #4 on: February 20, 2014, 06:44:23 PM »

Sometimes mobile phones suck for writing.

Maybe I should rerphrase my question.  It is basically, how would Al Smiths views do for him in the modern Democratic party?

Very poorly, I should think.
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TNF
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« Reply #5 on: February 20, 2014, 06:58:49 PM »

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Cathcon
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« Reply #6 on: February 20, 2014, 07:28:52 PM »
« Edited: February 20, 2014, 08:11:17 PM by Cathcon »

2008
Al Smith had won a bruising primary campaign against former Clinton Secretary of State William G. McAdoo. McAdoo, a moderate and ally of the former administration, had long been favored to win the nomination given establishment and DLC backing. However, his centrist stances, combined with the Smith call for "change" eventually won over a coalition of urban, working class, Catholic, and activist voters, complete with double wins in Iowa and New Hampshire. While McAdoo struck back in the South, it would be Smith who eventually claimed the nomination. Choosing Senator Joe Biden of Delaware to give himself experience, it was hoped that the Democratic ticket could shift the Republican tide for good.


Governor Alfred E. Smith of New York
Former Secretary of the Treasury William G. McAdoo of California

However, it was not to be. While the Democrats' activists had won out in the primary, it would be the Republican establishment that controlled the GOP's nomination contest. Combining moderate and liberal Republicans with "common sense" and fiscal conservatives, as well as heavy backing from nationally known figures, John McCain would triumph over Bush favorite former Governor Frank Lowden of Illinois. In order to rejuvenate the base, expand on his "maverick" image, and appeal to women, McCain chose the fresh face Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska.


Senator John S. McCain, III of Arizona
Former Governor Frank O. Lowden of Illinois
Senator James Eli Watsen of Indiana

The campaign would be brutal, however, Republicans would take the early advantage. Lambasting the Empire State Governor as a "Papist" who wanted to decriminalize marijuana, sell out the nation to Rome, ease up on illegal immigrants, and "surrender" in America's wars overseas, Smith soon found his polling numbers falling. While McCain's running mate went on the attack, the Arizona Senator portrayed himself as an above-the-fray statesman, touting his maverick and even "progressive" record during the last eight years in the Senate. McCain promised to revitalize American infrastructure, raise tariffs to protect America's domestic industry, lower the deficit, and ease up on things such as the Bush-era ban on stem cell research. Being hailed by some as the "true face of change" in the election--as opposed to Smith--McCain's numbers would soar. With rumors escaping that Smith wasn't even born in America and in fact was from Ireland, as well as citing alleged radical affiliations to socialist groups and the IRA, the Democratic ticket was doomed. On election day, McCain would be elected in a landslide against Smith, who only took the heavily Catholic states of Massachusetts and Rhode Island, the liberal Hawaii, Washington DC, and the Deep South. Pollsters and political scientists would credit Smith's victories in the South for a two reasons: the McCain campaign's alienation of blacks as well as conservative disenfranchisement due to McCain's victory over Lowden. Some would as well theorize that, given the moderate McCain campaign, the South chose instead to swing back to its Democratic roots, much in the same way the North had for the Republicans.

Senator John S. McCain, III (R-AZ)/Governor Sarah Palin (R-AK) 462 electoral votes, 58.22% of the popular vote
Governor Alfred E. Smith (D-NY)/Senator Joseph R. Biden (D-DE) 76 electoral votes, 40.79% of the popular vote
Mr. Ralph Nader (I-CT)/Mr. Matthew Gonzalez (I-CA) 0 electoral votes, .73% of the popular vote
Others: 0 electoral votes, .26% of the popular vote

While McCain was riding high his first few months in, the stock market crash of '09 would doom his presidency. While his administration blamed Clinton and Bush policies for the failure, the American public reacted against the incumbent. Smith's successor as Governor, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., would beat him as well as House Speaker John Nance Garner for the Democratic nomination. Kennedy/Garner would win against McCain/Palin in a landslide in the 2012 presidential election. Smith, bitter with his defeat and disaffected by the Democrats in general, would take a swing to the right and endorse Kansas Governor Sam Brownback in the 2016 election.
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