Sabato's Crystal Ball: Local politics affecting governors races (Update)

[ElectionsGuy]

Article

You can skip past the first few paragraphs really, but here are the changes:

Hawaii (Abercrombie): Likely D --> Lean D
Georgia (Deal): Safe R --> Likely R
Kansas (Brownback): Safe R --> Likely R
Nevada (Sandoval): Likely R --> Safe R

Updated Governors Rankings

He explains that statewide controversies, or good governing style (in the case of Sandoval) can affect the results more than just the national mood in some races.

[publicunofficial]

Basing Hawaii off of one poll is stupid (Sabato's rankings for Hawaii never make sense).


Also, he still has Maryland as Lean D, when not even the biggest right wing hack thinks the GOP has a chance there.

[windjammer]

Sabato is a good pollster, I agree with him.

[ElectionsGuy]

Basing Hawaii off of one poll is stupid (Sabato's rankings for Hawaii never make sense).


Also, he still has Maryland as Lean D, when not even the biggest right wing hack thinks the GOP has a chance there.

I have no idea why they have Maryland as Lean D, I have it as Safe D!

And Hawaii, I agree its not good to change ratings after one poll (probably the first one), but I think they kind of saw this coming and just weren't sure until now.

[windjammer]

Basing Hawaii off of one poll is stupid (Sabato's rankings for Hawaii never make sense).


Also, he still has Maryland as Lean D, when not even the biggest right wing hack thinks the GOP has a chance there.

Honestly, Abercrombie is unpopular, and the post in question was the least inaccurate poll in Hawai in 2012. So, it makes sens, at this time. It's like the Hirono-Lingle battle

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Abercrombie is toast. And Quinn would be if it isn't for cook county machine.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Maryland is Super Safe Democratic

[IceSpear]

So let me get this straight.

Incumbent Democratic governor in heavily Democratic state trails opponents in the polls - Toss Up
Incumbent Republican governor in heavily Republican state trails opponent in the polls - Likely R

[ElectionsGuy]

So let me get this straight.

Incumbent Democratic governor in heavily Democratic state trails opponents in the polls - Toss Up
Incumbent Republican governor in heavily Republican state trails opponent in the polls - Likely R

Hawaii isn't a toss-up, its lean D. They moved both those races just one slot over, from Likley D to Lean D for Abercrombie, and from Safe R to Likely R for Brownback.

[SWE]

So let me get this straight.

Incumbent Democratic governor in heavily Democratic state trails opponents in the polls - Toss Up
Incumbent Republican governor in heavily Republican state trails opponent in the polls - Likely R

Hawaii isn't a toss-up, its lean D. They moved both those races just one slot over, from Likley D to Lean D for Abercrombie, and from Safe R to Likely R for Brownback.

I think IceSpear was referring to Illinois

[IceSpear]

Yeah, I was referring to IL.

[ElectionsGuy]

Yeah, I was referring to IL.

Oh, oops. Well to be fair, Quinn is down by a lot more in Illinois than Brownback is in Kansas. Kansas is also redder, and the election season is looking to be more republican-favored. They also said Illinois has proven to be more winnable with Kirk and Brady in 2010. So the two aren't directly comparable.

[Skill and Chance]

If people are that upset with Abercrombie, he will probably just lose the D primary to Ige and the general would be back to safe D.

[Vega]

If people are that upset with Abercrombie, he will probably just lose the D primary to Ige and the general would be back to safe D.

QFT. That's the worst case scenario.