Plan to split California into 6 states advances

[Stranger in a strange land]

a North/South split in CA would make some sense, but this is just ridiculous.

[DINGO Joe]

Wouldn't a more accurate name for Jefferson be "Potopia"?

[tallguy23]

How would these "states" have voted in 2008 and 2012 (vote totals)? Any data genesis want to take a crack at this?

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2014/02/21/california-six-states-plan-tim-draper/5673283/

This link lists each state by current CA counties.

[Napoleon]

One rich guy supporting it does not a viable plan make.

Actually that's exactly how these things work assuming this is one of those ballot initiative things. If not then its just a money scheme.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

How would these "states" have voted in 2008 and 2012 (vote totals)? Any data genesis want to take a crack at this?

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2014/02/21/california-six-states-plan-tim-draper/5673283/

This link lists each state by current CA counties.

"Silicon Valley" and "West California" are obviously hardcore Democratic. "North California" is safely Democratic, but not by blowout numbers My guess is that Obama won both "Central California" and "South California", but that they would be competitive for Republicans. "Jefferson" is hardcore Republican.  Maybe 7-5 Senator split, with Democrats locking down the 3 Democratic states while taking a competitive seat in "Central" or "South" California.

[Skill and Chance]

More reasonable would be using the "straight line" county boundaries north of Bakersfield to divide the state in two.  But all that does politically is create 2 more Democratic senators.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

More reasonable would be using the "straight line" county boundaries north of Bakersfield to divide the state in two.  But all that does politically is create 2 more Democratic senators.

Yes, some of these 6 are pretty absurd. North California especially has an odd shape. And San Francisco and Concord part of "Silicon Valley"? LOL.

[muon2]

These are spectacularly poor boundaries, of course; "North California" stands out in particular as not making any sense.

I agree particularly with the thought that "North California" is a spectacularly poor construct. Even merging it with Jefferson only makes marginal sense. The problem for me is that the North Bay has been lopped off its natural region. Marin, Sonoma, Napa, and Solano seem more part of the Bay area rather than merged with Sacto. The Census Bureau agrees from their view of MSAs and CSAs.

[politicallefty]

That map doesn't make any sense at all. The logical two-state split is the straight line above Kern County. If you're going to divide the state that many times, the entire Bay Area should be kept together. I also don't see the logic in keeping Sacramento in a different state from Stockton and Modesto. I could see a serious proposal dividing the state at most three or four ways, but even those are a stretch.

[Torie]

Well, the odds of this passing at the federal level are precisely zero, even if the state goes for it.

[TJ in Oregon]

In case anyone is curious the two party 2012 presidential vote in each is:

Jefferson: Romney 51.70%
North California: Obama 59.73%
Silicon Valley: Obama 75.79%
Central California: Romney 51.39%
West California: Obama 68.72%
South California: Obama 51.23%

Jefferson, Central California, and South California would be competitive under this map.

[Хahar 🤔]

How would these "states" have voted in 2008 and 2012 (vote totals)? Any data genesis want to take a crack at this?

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2014/02/21/california-six-states-plan-tim-draper/5673283/

This link lists each state by current CA counties.

Jefferson: 48.94% R, 46.36% O
North California: 57.91% O, 39.04% R
Central California: 49.96% R, 47.38% O
Silicon Valley: 73.50% O, 23.47% R
West California: 66.95% O, 30.48% R
South California: 49.95% O, 47.55% R

[Lief 🗽]

Democrats would be hurt in the electoral college but would get a big boost in the Senate. I like this plan.

[Vega]

Yeah, I adore this plan.

[Хahar 🤔]

Of course, any plan endeavoring to split Northern California into multiple states would have to separate the northern coast from the Sacramento Valley. Not only are they very different culturally, but there are few road links between them.

[angus]

Democrats would be hurt in the electoral college but would get a big boost in the Senate. I like this plan.

I don't think it's very realistic anyway, but it seems awfully short-sighted to evaluate this plan based on things like how many Republicans or Democrats it might add to the congress at this time, given current voting trends.  It seems to me that the economic and ecological realities of the region should be taken under consideration foremost.  Water rights is the first thing they would probably have to sort out, and that wouldn't be easy.  Also, there's higher education and medical services and taxes.  The system was built on an earlier model, and just drawing lines in the sand and naming new capitals in some grand gerrymandering scheme isn't going to solve any of the state's problems.

[publicunofficial]

One more reason to hate Silicon Valley and the people who live there.

[Хahar 🤔]

One more reason to hate Silicon Valley and the people who live there.

What reason is that?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

a North/South split in CA would make some sense, but this is just ridiculous.

It makes perfect sense... if you're a Silicon Valley oligarch salivating at the thought of getting a private feudal-capitalist mini-state, and don't give a damn what happens to the rest of California.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, obvious gerrymander is obvious.

[RedSLC]

At least splitting California between the north and south would make some sense. This is just a blatant attempt at gerrymandering the state.

There was a similar proposal a few years ago to split the state into "northern" and "southern" California, with LA county as part of the "north". Much like that plan, I doubt this will get far.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Looks like it'll probably be on the 2016 ballot.

[Adam Griffin]

Well crap - I somehow missed TJ's calculations and ended up replicating it. Oh well, I had fun anyway.

All of our numbers essentially match except for Jefferson - not sure what happened there. I have it being a few points more R in 2012 than he does. These are the percentages between the two parties/two-way model:

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

So if it gets on the ballot, would it need a simple majority to pass or would all six "states" need to have a majority in favour?

[Slander and/or Libel]

Whatever happens, the US legislature would need to approve it, and that seems like a high bar.