Jay Nixon not ruling out run

[NHLiberal]

Nixon's a new face on the national scene, but he's a career politician in MO and is not someone who can credibly label him as an "outsider".  He's got executive experience, but no foreign policy chops.  He's a logical VP pick for Hillary Clinton, and he might help expand the map. 

I don't see Nixon as a credible Presidential candidate, and I really don't see him running against Blunt unless he's promised loads of money.  I wouldn't be surprised if he opts out of running against Blunt in the hopes of being selected for the national ticket.  I would be slightly surprised if Nixon were to beat Blunt; MO is trending GOP and I don't see Blunt losing in such a nationalized election.  Yes, Claire McCaskill clobbered Todd Akin in 2012, but look at the "help" Akin gave her.

If Nixon doesn't run against Blunt, who is the Missouri Democrats' best choice?

Probably Secretary of State Jason Kander.  Chris Koster is running for Governor already.  Kander would have to think long and hard about risking it all to challenge Blunt, who isn't an overly endangered incumbent; he's young, perhaps a future Governor, and he could be re-elected to his current position, but Koster is blocking that path. 

Agreed that it would probably be Kander, though Clint Zweifel, the State Treasurer, would be strong as well. MO has a good Democratic bench.

Also, FuzzyBear, I think you underestimate Nixon's chances against Blunt. I think if he gets in, it would start out as a pure tossup. Blunt's pretty unpopular, and Nixon's well-liked.

[NHLiberal]

Nixon's a new face on the national scene, but he's a career politician in MO and is not someone who can credibly label him as an "outsider".  He's got executive experience, but no foreign policy chops.  He's a logical VP pick for Hillary Clinton, and he might help expand the map. 

I don't see Nixon as a credible Presidential candidate, and I really don't see him running against Blunt unless he's promised loads of money.  I wouldn't be surprised if he opts out of running against Blunt in the hopes of being selected for the national ticket.  I would be slightly surprised if Nixon were to beat Blunt; MO is trending GOP and I don't see Blunt losing in such a nationalized election.  Yes, Claire McCaskill clobbered Todd Akin in 2012, but look at the "help" Akin gave her.

If Nixon doesn't run against Blunt, who is the Missouri Democrats' best choice?

Probably Secretary of State Jason Kander.  Chris Koster is running for Governor already.  Kander would have to think long and hard about risking it all to challenge Blunt, who isn't an overly endangered incumbent; he's young, perhaps a future Governor, and he could be re-elected to his current position, but Koster is blocking that path. 

Agreed that it would probably be Kander, though Clint Zweifel, the State Treasurer, would be strong as well. MO has a good Democratic bench.

Also, FuzzyBear, I think you underestimate Nixon's chances against Blunt. I think if he gets in, it would start out as a pure tossup. Blunt's pretty unpopular, and Nixon's well-liked.

Nixon is the new 1984 Jim Hunt.  Hunt chose to run against Jesse Helms at the end of his 2nd term as NC Governor.  Helms was not real popular; he didn't win very strongly in his 1978 re-election and Hunt was projected as a slight favorite in the beginning.

What happened was that 1984 was a pretty nationalized election in NC in 1984.  Reagan not only won the state, he took Helms with him.  Hunt was put on the defensive when asked if he supported Mondale, and, even worse for Hunt, which policies of Mondale he disagreed with.  Hunt lost the election 53-47, and while he went back to the Governor's mansion in 1992, he never ran for the Senate again.  His loss in 1984 effectively ended Hunt's chances for the national ticket.  (He would have been a better pick for Kerry than John Edwards, but he was considered too old by that time.)

Nixon is in the same position.  The GOP is likely to carry the Presidential race in MO in 2012, and the Governorship is open, due to term limits.  The Democrats in MO do have a deep bench, but keeping the Governorship will not be easy, and Blunt has a solid base and the advantages of incumbency.  Nixon has some crossover appeal to independents and weak Republicans, but that is more applicable to a race for a state office than it is for a natonal one.  And the 2016 political environment in MO is sure to be highly nationalized.  If Nixon runs against Blunt and loses, his political career is over.  I agree that it's highly likely that the Blunt race may be the only game in town for Nixon, but in some ways, he may be better off in the long term running a Presidential campaign, even if it doesn't get very far.

Talk to me when there is any reason to believe that the 2016 Republican nominee will be winning nationally by 18 or Missouri by 24. Or when there is any reason to believe that the Republican nominee will win the election period.