Ukraine 2014

[Zuza]

Yulia Tymoshenko (All-Ukrainian Union "Fatherland"): Viewed as a corrupt by many in the opposition. What hurts her even more than that though was the sweet gas deal she gave Russia. The same gas deal, however, might allow to her gain significant support in the East, although the current political climate won't allow her to campaign that way. I still say there's a good chance she becomes explicitly pro-Russian once Klitschko inevitably becomes unpopular.

It could give her Kremlin's support but hardly could raise her rating anywhere in the Ukraine (Eastern or Western). I don't know if she will become pro-Russian in the future, but I doubt that her main electoral base will ever be on the East. East has (and will have) its own candidates.

Anyway it seems that she will not run this time.

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Do you mean that he is economically left-wing? Why?

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There is a chance that during the Euromaidan events large share (maybe even majority) of "Freedom" supporters switched to the Right Sector, more radical nationalist group (it is not known yet whether Right Sector will nominate its own candidate, support somebody from other political groups or abstain from participating in the elections, but almost certainly it won't back Tyahnybok). I will not be surprised if now he will poll lower than previously.

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How he is ideologically closer to Klitschko? Economically liberal? From what I know "Freedom" poses itself as a "social nationalist" party and economically is far to the left of Klitschko or even Tymoshenko.

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Wikipedia states that she was dismissed (as well as other ministers). It seems that she is absent in the most polls, and, when included, polls less than 1%. I can't imagine her becoming a major candidate.

Unmentioned in your post, but still possible participants: Poroshenko, an oligarch and one of the Euromaidan leaders, currently polls quite high (about 10%, only several percents behind Klitschko and Tymoshenko); somebody from "Fatherland" aside from Tymoshenko (Yatsenyuk? Turchynov?); somebody from the Right Sector (Dmytro Yarosh?); Yuschenko, Hrytshenko, Lytvin, Lyashko (neither of them have any chance to receive more than a few percents); some radical pro-Russian candidate (Ihor Markov? he is currently imprisoned but can be freed soon).

Dobkin announced his candidacy. I doubt that he can win the PoR nomination. Maybe PoR will split over the issue to who will be nominated and eventually desintegrate? If Tihipko and Dobkin (both Eastern candidates) will run separately than Dobkin will be more Eastern and more pro-Russian and will get much less votes.

I put my bet on Klitschko vs Tihipko run-off (in which Klitschko will win by a notable margin), though, of course, other outcomes are possible.

[Famous Mortimer]

Leftist is probably too harsh a word. Tihipko is centre-left. He's definitely more ideologically committed than Yanukovych though, who was basically just pro-corruption. Like I said, Tihipko headed a party called Labour Ukraine, which obviously from its name was an explicitly social democratic group. Also, when Labour Ukraine merged with the Party of Regions after the 2010 elections, originally there was going to be a third party involved, a pro-business party called United Centre (previously The Party of Private Property). Tihipko told Yanukovych he wouldn't be involed if United Centre was and Yank obviously picked Labour Ukraine since it was way bigger. After that, Tihipko was basically in charge of designing the party's ideology. He was the main person responsible for pushing them from an ambiguous party of power into having some links with the PES.

[Zuza]

Leftist is probably too harsh a word. Tihipko is centre-left. He's definitely more ideologically committed than Yanukovych though, who was basically just pro-corruption. Like I said, Tihipko headed a party called Labour Ukraine, which obviously from its name was an explicitly social democratic group. Also, when Labour Ukraine merged with the Party of Regions after the 2010 elections, originally there was going to be a third party involved, a pro-business party called United Centre (previously The Party of Private Property). Tihipko told Yanukovych he wouldn't be involed if United Centre was and Yank obviously picked Labour Ukraine since it was way bigger. After that, Tihipko was basically in charge of designing the party's ideology. He was the main person responsible for pushing them from an ambiguous party of power into having some links with the PES.

Party name can matter very little, especially in countries without developed political culture (including post-Soviet countries, remember LDPR or Democratic Party of Turkmenistan, for example), but I didn't know about other facts you listed. Well, maybe he is to the left of an average Ukrainian politician, but it hardly will influence his results significantly.

[RogueBeaver]

Klitschko reiterated that he will run. Also calling for a snap parliamentary election.

[Famous Mortimer]

Seeing Petro Poroshenko mentioned a lot lately. My thoughts on him:

Poroshenko is an oligarch best known for owning some TV stations. Apparently he also runs or used to run a candy factory and a lot of sources are calling him the "Chocolate King." In the 90s, he was a member of the Social Democratic Party of Ukraine (United), a fake social democratic party for oligarchs. In the 2000s, he founded his own social democratic faction called Solidarity which has been sporadically active. This is all stuff I just learned actually. I would have never guessed he was a social democrat. I knew him because of his role in the Orange Revolution (being one of the main financial backers of Yushchenko) and later  for opposing Our Ukraine's coalition with Tymoshenko. He actually hates Tymoshenko so much that he briefly joined the Party of Regions led cabinet in 2012. I don't imagine he'll be much of a player on his own. He's more of a behind the scenes guy. I suppose he could become a major candidate though if he gets the bump of becoming interim Prime Minister.

[RogueBeaver]

Yatsenyuk says he won't run for President.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yatsenyuk says he won't run for President.

Leaving the way for Tymoshenko?

[RogueBeaver]

Klitschko confirms both he and Tymoshenko will run. Yanukovych of course won't, sees the election as illegitimate.

[Хahar 🤔]

Yulia Tymoshenko (All-Ukrainian Union "Fatherland"): Viewed as a corrupt by many in the opposition. What hurts her even more than that though was the sweet gas deal she gave Russia. The same gas deal, however, might allow to her gain significant support in the East, although the current political climate won't allow her to campaign that way. I still say there's a good chance she becomes explicitly pro-Russian once Klitschko inevitably becomes unpopular.

It could give her Kremlin's support but hardly could raise her rating anywhere in the Ukraine (Eastern or Western). I don't know if she will become pro-Russian in the future, but I doubt that her main electoral base will ever be on the East. East has (and will have) its own candidates.

Presidential candidates have switched their base of support between elections in the past; at least, Kuchma did it.

[Hash]

Yes, in the 1990s, incumbent presidents saw their support shift west in their reelection bids - Kravchuk was elected by the east and centre against Galicia in 1991, but was backed by Galicia and much the west/centre in his unsuccessful reelection bid in 1994 against Kuchma, who was elected by the east; in 1999, the map was a bit weird but Kuchma won huge support in Galicia against the Communist fruitcake. Though obviously President Waxwork's support didn't shift west in 2010 from 2004.

[Zuza]

Yulia Tymoshenko (All-Ukrainian Union "Fatherland"): Viewed as a corrupt by many in the opposition. What hurts her even more than that though was the sweet gas deal she gave Russia. The same gas deal, however, might allow to her gain significant support in the East, although the current political climate won't allow her to campaign that way. I still say there's a good chance she becomes explicitly pro-Russian once Klitschko inevitably becomes unpopular.

It could give her Kremlin's support but hardly could raise her rating anywhere in the Ukraine (Eastern or Western). I don't know if she will become pro-Russian in the future, but I doubt that her main electoral base will ever be on the East. East has (and will have) its own candidates.

Presidential candidates have switched their base of support between elections in the past; at least, Kuchma did it.

Yes, but then configuration of Ukrainian political forces was less stable than now. Since the border between "orange" North-West and "blue" South-East was fully established (in 2002-2004), it didn't changed significantly. And usually candidates switched from East to West, not from West to East.

Though probably there exists chance that sometimes somebody from "orange" political camp will occupy niche of Eastern candidate. For example, if no one from the East will manage to go to the runoff (it can happen in 2014 elections), then South and East will vote for the less undesirable of two Western candidates (just like Western regions voted for Kravchuk in 1994 and Kuchma in 1999). But I think that most probably that candidate won't be Tymoshenko.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Famous Mortimer]

Party of Regions might be meeting today to pick a candidate. Tihipko has said he is open to being their candidate.

[YL]

Is the tendency of Carpathian Ruthenia/Zakarpattia/whatever you want to call it to align less with the rest of the west because of genuine similarities to eastern and southern areas or more of a reaction against the sort of Ukrainian nationalism you get in neighbouring Galicia?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Given recent events, I'd say at this point it isn't 100% certain if a election will be held, who will run, and in what parts of the country an election will be held.

[Hash]

Is the tendency of Carpathian Ruthenia/Zakarpattia/whatever you want to call it to align less with the rest of the west because of genuine similarities to eastern and southern areas or more of a reaction against the sort of Ukrainian nationalism you get in neighbouring Galicia?

Transcarpathia has substantial Hungarian and Romanian minorities, forming a majority in several municipalities. Yanukovych did very well in regions with large non-Ukrainian/Russian minorities.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, Ukrainian Nationalism is not terribly attractive to most of the country's minorities for some curious reason.

[Famous Mortimer]

Party of Regions had previously announced they were picking a candidate yesterday. I guess they're waiting to see what happens if their entire vote base becomes another country.

I imagine the government is going to have to push back the registration deadline from March 30th.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Party of Regions had previously announced they were picking a candidate yesterday.

Was his name Vladimir Putin?

[Famous Mortimer]

First post-revolution poll and very surprising:

Petro Poroshenko (Solidarity) 30.9%
Vitali Klitschko (Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform) 21.3
Yulia Tymoshenko (Fatherland) 14.1
Serhiy Tihipko (Party of Regions) 9.6
Petro Symonenko (Communist Party of Ukraine) 6.4
Oleh Tyahnybok (Freedom) 3.6
Dmitry Yarosh (Right Sector) 2.3
Viktor Medvedchuk (Ukrainian Choice) 1.3

For Parliament:

Fatherland 22.7
Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform 22.3
Solidarity 18.9
Party of Regions 12.9
Communist Party of Ukraine 7.1
Freedom 6.5
Radical Party Oleg Lyashko 3.7
Ukrainian Choice 1.4
Our Ukraine 0.5

http://www.socis.kiev.ua/ua/press/nove-sotsiolohichnoho-opytuvannja-stanom-z-25-ljutoho-po-4-bereznja-2014.html

[RogueBeaver]

Doesn't surprise me. While I've always preferred Klitschko Poroshenko would be my second choice.

[RogueBeaver]

Also to say polling may be a tad dicey when you're being invaded.

[Famous Mortimer]

Doesn't surprise me. While I've always preferred Klitschko Poroshenko would be my second choice.

What do you like about Poroshenko? He's tied to Yushchenko who only won 5% when running for re-election. He's also believed to be behind funding Right Sector.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Are they holding snap parliamentary elections too? I feel like they should. I also would assume that Tymoshenko would endorse Klitschko if he made it to the 2nd round and she didn't.

[Famous Mortimer]

Are they holding snap parliamentary elections too? I feel like they should. I also would assume that Tymoshenko would endorse Klitschko if he made it to the 2nd round and she didn't.

Tymoshenko would endorse the non-Poroshenko candidate in any run-off featuring Poroshenko.