Ukraine 2014

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He's an 'interesting' character, isn't he?

[EPG]

Are they holding snap parliamentary elections too? I feel like they should. I also would assume that Tymoshenko would endorse Klitschko if he made it to the 2nd round and she didn't.

De facto, if not de jure, any election held right now would exclude the Crimea. They won't want that.

[Zuza]

Another survey indicates similar results: http://glavcom.ua/news/190130.html. It was conducted by Kyivan International Institute of Sociology by request of Party of Regions. It includes 11 different presidential polls (each one shows one of possible PoR candidates against a set of candidates from other parties) and also a parliamentary poll. Tihipko is a clear winner among these 11, no one of other 10 candidates managed to beat even Symonenko or Hrytsenko (Dobkin showed second best result with 3.6%, Akhmetov third best with 3.4%).

If Tihipko would be PoR nominee (and most probably he would, especially after this poll), the results would be as follows:
Poroshenko - 19.8%
Klitschko - 12.1%
Tymoshenko - 8.4%
Tihipko - 8.0%
Symonenko - 5.0%
Hrytsenko - 4.6% (surprisingly high, he wasn't even mentioned in the SOCIS poll)
Tyahnybok - 1.7%
Medvedchuk - 0.7%
Against all - 17.6%
Undecided - 17.7%
Wouldn't vote - 3.2%

Parliamentary poll:
UDAR - 16.0%
Fatherland - 15.1%
PoR - 10.2%
KPU - 6.8%
Freedom - 4.5%
Radical Party - 3.4%
Solidarity - 2.9%
Our Ukraine - 1.6%
SPU - 0.9%
Ukrainian Choice - 0.6%
Others - 1.1%
Undecided - 26.7%
Wouldn't vote - 8.6%

[Franknburger]

Interestingly, that poll appears to have been mostly directed towards Russian-speakers. If my (fairly limited) reading of Cyrillic does not deceive me, the linguistic breakdown of respondents has been:

Russian-only        43.3%
Ukrainian-only     38.3%
Both languages    17.9%
Something else      0.5% (words I don't understand that probably mean "other/ not stated")

Could you, Zuza, or anybody else with a reasonable command of Russian/ Ukrainian, give some more information, also as concerns further demographic background information and the supplementary questions that have been asked?

Furthermore - can the "against all" vote (17.6%) be interpreted as an indication of popular support to separation? Does the poll & supplementary text give any indication on the regional distribution of presidential/ party/ "against all" / undecided preferences?

[Yeahsayyeah]

Votes "against all" have sometimes been high in personal elections, especially parliamentary district elections in Ukraine and Russia before. Many probably don't bother who would be the candidates right now, don't know them and for an easterner some Yanukovich loyalism would probably be a good explanation to vote this way. Weither this means a wish for secession we don't know at this point of time.

(I am no Russian speaker, sadly)

[Famous Mortimer]

Anatoliy Hrytsenko: Former Defense Minister under during the Yushchenko administration. Rather generic conservative. He leads a party called Civil Position. He ran in the 2010 election and won just over 1%. In the second round, he endorsed a blank vote. Despite this, in the 2012 elections, he joined Tymoshenko's Fatherland party and was placed second on the national list, between current PM Yatsenyuk and current President Turchynov. He left the caucus shortly after and now sits as an independent. He's probably taking votes from former voters of Yatsenyuk and Yushchenko, also conservatives who refused to endorse in the 2010 run-off.

Viktor Medvedchuk: Former Head of the Presidential Administration during the second Kuchma administration. Was also leader of the pro-Kuchma Social Democratic Party of Ukraine (United). After he left it faded into obscurity and became a satellite of the Communist Party. Medvedchuk is extremely pro-Russian. Wikipedia says Putin is the godfather of his daughter. He leads a new movement called Ukrainian Choice, referring to Ukrainians' choice to join the Customs Union.

[Famous Mortimer]

The 11 potential Regions candidates are:

Sergei Tigipko

Former Deputy PM Oleksandr Vilkul

Former Kharkiv Governor Mikhail Dobkin

Oligarch and main party funder Rinat Akhmetov

Former PM Mykola Azarov

Nestor Shufrych, former Emergencies Minister. Somewhat of a credible social democrat, having stuck with the Social Democratic Party of Ukraine (United) much longer than it was a credible party.

Dmytro Tabachnyk, former head of the presidential administration under Yanukovych, deputy PM, and most recently education minister.

Hanna Herman, top woman in the Party of Regions.

Volodymyr Rybak, former Speaker of Parliament and deputy PM.

Raisa Bogatyrova, another lady candidate. Previously associated with the Socialist Party of Ukraine.

Oleksandr Yefremov, former governor of Luhansk and parliamentary faction leader.

[Famous Mortimer]

Surprised Hennadiy Kernes wasn't polled.

[Zuza]

Interestingly, that poll appears to have been mostly directed towards Russian-speakers.

No, it seems that sample wasn't biased in favor of Russian-speakers. 33.6% stated they voted for Yanukovych in the 2nd round of 2010 elections, while 35.7% for Tymoshenko.

Though I don't remember exact linguistic statistics for Ukraine.

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It was a question about the language mostly spoken at home. 17.9% answered they speak Russian and Ukrainian at home equally. Overall share of those who can speak both languages most probably is much higher than 17.9%.

0.2% stated "other language" and 0.3% refused to say.

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Gender: 45.3% males, 54.7% females.
Age: 20.9% 18-29, 26.5% 30-44, 26.8% 45-59, 25.7% 60+.
Occupation: 11.3% manufacturing and agriculture, 7.7% service and trade, 8.7% tertiary sector emplioyees w/o higher education, 13.3% specialists with higher education, 4.0% individual entrepreneurs, 2.2% entrepreneurs and farmers, 0.9% army and police, 30.1% pensioners (retired or disabled), 3.8% students, 8.8% unemployed, 7.4% housewives and on maternity leave.
10.0% - don't have enough money for food, 40.7% - enough money for food, not enough for clothing, 41.6% - enough money for food and clothing, not enough for expensive things (such as fridge or TV), 6.2% - enough for expensive things, 0.3% - "we can purchase anything we want".

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No indication. But it seems that share of "against all" voters always was high. http://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr&cat=reports&id=173&page=1 - another KIIS poll, 18.1% (!)  answered thay would vote against all, of them 25.2% in the South and 25.7% in the East compared to only 10.0% in the West.

[Zuza]

Here is that KIIS poll on KIIS site: http://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=rus&cat=reports&id=240&page=1&t=3, and it includes regional stats.

Intention to vote against all is even higher now (compared to the poll mentioned in previous post) in the East (36.0%) and lower in the West (3.1%), that isn't surprising, though also somewhat lower in the South (21.1%). In Central Ukraine it is nearly unchanged (11.8% down from 12.4%).

What surprises me is that according to this poll Tymoshenko voting base is the least Western of 3 major Western candidates, and that of Klitschko is the most Western. Though even Tymoshenko and Poroshenko poll lower in the East than Symonenko, not to say about Tihipko. Other voting patterns are more or less predictable.

[Famous Mortimer]

So who's winning in the east?

[Zuza]

So who's winning in the east?

Tihipko clearly winning with 16.7%. And in the South he is winning too, though by a very slim majority. If he'll mobilize enough undecided and "against all" voters in the South-East, he'll go into the second round.

[Famous Mortimer]

Dmytro Yarosh is in.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/ukraines-neo-fascist-right-sector-leader-dmytro-yarosh-run-president-1439324

[YL]

Dmytro Yarosh is in.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/ukraines-neo-fascist-right-sector-leader-dmytro-yarosh-run-president-1439324

Let's hope hardly anyone votes for him.

[Famous Mortimer]

Also re:Parliamentary elections

Fresh ones have not been called and a still tentatively scheduled for 2017.

Klitschko has called for them to be moved up though.

I suspect whoever wins, calling new elections will be one of their first acts.

[Famous Mortimer]

Two interesting articles that back up the idea Putin is supporting Tymoshenko:

Here's one from the government run Voice of Russia that repeats over and over again that Tymoshenko is the only qualified candidate:

http://voiceofrussia.com/2014_03_08/Ukraine-presidential-elections-candidates-have-no-plan-for-restoring-order-4948/

Here's another from the Moscow Times that flat out calls Putin's hinting an endorsement:

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/putins-shrewd-endorsement-of-tymoshenko/495908.html

[RogueBeaver]

Is anyone surprised? No wonder the Maidan rejected her, quite rightly IMO.

[Zuza]

Poll by Social Monitoring Centre (never heard about this pollster, but number don't seem highly dubious):
Tymoshenko 15.5%
Klitschko 14.2%
Poroshenko 13.7%
Tigipko 11.4%
Symonenko 6.4%
Tyahnybok 3.7%
Lyashko 3%
Don't know 16.7%
Wouldn't vote 15.4%

But in the runoff Tymoshenko can beat only Tigipko and would lose to Klitschko and Poroshenko.

[Famous Mortimer]

Deadline for registration is coming up, although apparently it has been extended to April 4th.

So far only 4 candidates have submitted papers:

Renat Kuzmin, former Deputy Prosecutor General, who was in charge of the Tymoshenko case

Mikhail Dobkin, former Kharkiv governor, POR member but self nominated

Serhiy Tihipko, again, a POR member but self nominated

Vadim Rabinovich, oligarch and Jewish activist with both Ukrainian and Israeli citizenship

[Zuza]

Joint poll by SOCIS, KIIS, Rating and Razumkov Center places Poroshenko in 1st place (36.2%; Klichko on a distant 2nd place with 12.9%). Klichko, Tymoshenko and Tihipko are more or less at the same level (10-13%), then Dobkin, Symonenko, Lyashko and Hrytsenko (all about 5%). Dobkin polled better than I would suppose, probably he attracted those Eastern voters for whom Tihipko isn't enough Eastern.

Poroshenko wins second round againt Klichko, Tymoshenko and Tihipko by a huge margins (42.9 to 15.3%, 46.3 to 11.6 % and 50.8 to 14.4 % respectively). So if he will run and if nothing will change dramatically, he will easily win and even have a chance to do this in the first round.

Right Sector received only 2.7% in the parliamentary poll, and its leader Yarosh 1.4% in the presidential poll, even less than Svoboda and Tyahnybok.

[ag]

Klichko is running for mayor of Kyiv. Endorses Poroshenko for presidency.

[Zanas]

So that's it ? Only two candidates ? Poroshenko and Timoshenko ? Well, talk about a disappointment... This will be dull. So who do you think is perceived as the "Eastern compatible" candidate this time ? I'd say Timoshenko a little bit more than Poroshenko, but I don't know.

Anyway, do you think this will mean very low turnout in the East or what ?

[ag]

Interestingly, none of the major candidates is a proper Westerner. In fact, many are not even born in Ukraine. Timoshenko is from Dnipropetrovsk and is not even ethnically Ukrainian (Timoshenko is her married name). Poroshenko is from the part of the former Bessarabia that is now in Ukraine (born right at the border with Moldova). Tyhipko is from Moldova itself. Klitschko (though not a candidate anymore) is a Soviet military brat, born in Kyrgyzstan. Symonenko is from Donetsk. Lyashko is from Chernihiv, studied in Kharkiv. Only Tyahnibok is from Lviv.

[Zuza]

Interestingly, none of the major candidates is a proper Westerner. In fact, many are not even born in Ukraine. Timoshenko is from Dnipropetrovsk and is not even ethnically Ukrainian (Timoshenko is her married name). Poroshenko is from the part of the former Bessarabia that is now in Ukraine (born right at the border with Moldova). Tyhipko is from Moldova itself. Klitschko (though not a candidate anymore) is a Soviet military brat, born in Kyrgyzstan. Symonenko is from Donetsk. Lyashko is from Chernihiv, studied in Kharkiv. Only Tyahnibok is from Lviv.

And Yuschenko, whose main electoral base was Galicia, is from Sumy Oblast. On other hand, although Chernihiv and Sumy are east of Dnieper, they are electorally "Western".

[Zuza]

Party of Regions surprisingly nominated Dobkin instead of Tihipko. Dobkin called other candidates who are PoR members (Tihipko, Boyko and Tsaryov) to withdraw.

So that's it ? Only two candidates ? Poroshenko and Timoshenko ? Well, talk about a disappointment... This will be dull. So who do you think is perceived as the "Eastern compatible" candidate this time ? I'd say Timoshenko a little bit more than Poroshenko, but I don't know.

Anyway, do you think this will mean very low turnout in the East or what ?

I've seen only one poll that includes information about how different regions will vote: http://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=rus&cat=reports&id=240&page=1&t=3. According to it, of three main Western candidates (Klichko, Poroshenko, Tymoshenko) Tymoshenko have relatively slightly more support in the East while Klichko in the West. But it is not clear how will be Tihipko, Dobkin and Symonenko voters divided between Poroshenko and Tymoshenko in the runoff (and how many of them will not vote)...

Probably turnout in the East will be low in the first round and even lower in case of Poroshenko - Tymoshenko runoff.