Ukraine 2014

[Tender Branson]

Frank Stronach launches a new party in Ukraine: Tздм Sтяoидcн



http://dietagespresse.com/t%D0%B7%D0%B4%D0%BC-s%D1%82%D1%8Fo%D0%B8%D0%B4c%D0%BD-stronach-gruendet-neue-partei-der-ukraine

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"What the Ukraine needs now is a new movement, which will put an end to the corruption and party functionaries in the country", said Stronach. "Politicians have to serve the country again."

[politicus]

Is he serious?

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Some kind of joke?

[Yeahsayyeah]

It's a satire page, so, yes. But "Team Stronach" actually looks quite cool in Kyrillic letters.

[Zanas]

It's a satire page, so, yes. But "Team Stronach" actually looks quite cool in Kyrillic letters.

...that transliterate into "Tzdm ?tiaidsn"... which gave out the joke straightforward.

[Famous Mortimer]

Petro Symonenko has withdrawn because the elections will be "illegitimate."

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Petro Symonenko has withdrawn because the elections will be "illegitimate."

They will be given the eastern portion of the country is under occupation...

Seriously the government in Kiev is offering the legitimize itself with this election and Russia/"militias" guarantee that can't happen by destabilizing half the country, then they can claim independence because the government in Kiev isn't legitimate. Russia really has played this perfectly.

[ag]

Petro Symonenko has withdrawn because the elections will be "illegitimate."

They will be given the eastern portion of the country is under occupation...

Seriously the government in Kiev is offering the legitimize itself with this election and Russia/"militias" guarantee that can't happen by destabilizing half the country, then they can claim independence because the government in Kiev isn't legitimate. Russia really has played this perfectly.

Actually, given the size of the Poroshenko advantage, it may well turn out that Donetsk and Luhansk results would not matter, whatever they are. Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk will vote normally, it seems.

[ag]

Exit polls. Looks like it will be one round

Poroshenko 56%
Timoshenko 13%
Lyashko 8%
Hritsenko 6%
Tihipko 5%
Dobkin 2%
Bohomolets 2%
Rabinovich 2%
Tyahnibok 1%
Simonenko 1%
Yarosh 1%
Spoiled their ballots 1%
Everybody else infinitesimal

Seems like a decent turnout everywhere, except for Donetsk and Luhansk, were only a minority of the electoral districts managed to even install the polls (no election held in Donetsk city proper). Generally, in those provinces the rural areas voted (they are ethnically Ukrainian, anywa), but only few of the urban areas were safe enough to organize an election. And, of course, these are very urbanized provinces.

[Tender Branson]

Nice.

I'm looking forward to the maps by district/city, to see where the election was possible and in which areas it was not.

[ag]

Nice.

I'm looking forward to the maps by district/city, to see where the election was possible and in which areas it was not.

Only about 1/6 of the polling stations even opened in Donetsk, it seems. It will look better on the map: rural areas. Major exception: Mariupol (the city is owned by Akhmetov, and 90% of the stations opened there). Might be slightly better in Luhansk: some northern districts there are, it seems, safer.

[Famous Mortimer]

Exit polls. Looks like it will be one round

Poroshenko 56%
Timoshenko 13%
Lyashko 8%
Hritsenko 6%
Tihipko 5%
Dobkin 2%
Bohomolets 2%
Rabinovich 2%
Tyahnibok 1%
Simonenko 1%
Yarosh 1%
Spoiled their ballots 1%
Everybody else infinitesimal

Seems like a decent turnout everywhere, except for Donetsk and Luhansk, were only a minority of the electoral districts managed to even install the polls (no election held in Donetsk city proper). Generally, in those provinces the rural areas voted (they are ethnically Ukrainian, anywa), but only few of the urban areas were safe enough to organize an election. And, of course, these are very urbanized provinces.

Surge by Hritsenko was expected but unexplained. Surge by Lyashko is just bizarre. I'm guessing he must have just run a very anti-Russian campaign, because I think he got into a fist fight with some Russians.

Predictably bad results by Freedom and Right Sector.

[Famous Mortimer]

Really, if those are right though, terribly depressing.

Poroshenko is terrible. He's ideologically bankrupt and stands for nothing. That's bad because 1) I personally prefer a raging socialist and 2) With the lack of any ideological backdrop, the revolution will continue to be painted as a pro-Russian vs anti-Russian issue.

I had actually been hoping Tihipko got to the run-off, just to see the confused Russian reaction.

[ag]

Really, if those are right though, terribly depressing.

Poroshenko is terrible. He's ideologically bankrupt and stands for nothing. That's bad because 1) I personally prefer a raging socialist and 2) With the lack of any ideological backdrop, the revolution will continue to be painted as a pro-Russian vs anti-Russian issue.

I had actually been hoping Tihipko got to the run-off, just to see the confused Russian reaction.

At this point no raging socialist stands the remotest chance in Ukraine. Poroshenko being non-ideological is appropriate: his task is to unite the country, and no ideological politician can do it.

[ag]

There have been problems with reporting from the districts to the Central Election Commission (apparently, they had to fight off some serious hacking threats), but, finally, some actual results.

With 3.29% of precincts reporting  we have

Poroshenko 311,199 votes (54.99%)
Timoshenko 71,595 votes (12.65%)

Poroshenko leading in every province.

There are still major problems with the electoral commission website, but it seems to be coming back from the dead. I will try to monitor this.

[ag]

So far, in the problem provinces we have reports from 4 precincts in Donetsk (3 in Mariupol, 1 in Dobropilla - the latter, I think, is rural) and 25 precincts from Luhansk (all from around Svatove - also, pretty rural, in the far north of the province).

[ag]

With 8.41% of precincts reporting, I can actually see all candidates

Poroshenko 54.92%
Timoshenko 13.16%
Lyashko 8.42%
Hrytsenko 5.57%
Tyhipko 4.75%
Dobkin 3.38%
Rabinovych 1.92%
Bohomolets 1.86%
Symonenko 1.38%
Tyahnybok 1.17%
Yarosh 0.68%
Hrynenko 0.43%
Konovalyuk 0.32%
Boyko 0.18%
Malomuzh 0.12%
Kuzmin 0.10%
Kuybida 0.06%
Klymenko 0.05%
Tsushko 0.04%
Saranov 0.03%
Shkiryak 0.02%
Invalid ballots 1.33%
Total number of votes recorded so far 1,417,137

[ag]

13.20% reporting and the CVK webpage seems to work reasonably now

Poroshenko 54.57%
Timoshenko 13.26%
Lyashko 8.51%
Hrytsenko 5.54%
Tyhipko 4.88%
Dobkin 3.26%
Rabinovych 2.01%
Bohomolets 1.87%
Symonenko 1.42%
Tyahnybok 1.17%
Yarosh 0.67%
Hrynenko 0.42%
Konovalyuk 0.33%
Boyko 0.18%
Malomuzh 0.16%
Kuzmin 0.09%
Kuybida 0.07%
Klymenko 0.05%
Tsushko 0.04%
Saranov 0.03%
Shkiryak 0.02%
Invalid ballots 1.32%
Total number of votes recorded so far 2,221,977

[ag]

So far, in the problem provinces we have reports from 4 precincts in Donetsk (3 in Mariupol, 1 in Dobropilla - the latter, I think, is rural) and 25 precincts from Luhansk (all from around Svatove - also, pretty rural, in the far north of the province).

Progress report on Donetsk and Luhansk. So far we have partial reports from only five districts in Donetsk:

District 49 Dobropilla (55/109 precincts reporting)
District 58 Mariupol (1/116 precincts reporting)
District 59 Mariupol (69/100 precincts reporting - Akhmetov effect)
District 61 Volnovakha (12/123 precincts reporting - actually, one of the worst recent losses by Ukrainian military was here)
District 62 Starobesheve (54/140 precincts reporting - this one is very rural by Donetsk standards, I believe)

In Luhansk there are reports from only two districts

District 114 Bilovodsk (19/197 precincts reporting)
District 115 Svatove (107/200 precincts reporting)

Also, though, at least, Akhmetov ensured that Mariupol had functioning precincts, very few people turned out. No precinct is much above 20%, many are closer to 10%. Also, so far almost nothing from the second Mariupol district.

[ag]

31.37% reporting

Poroshenko 54.02%
Timoshenko 13.12%
Lyashko 8.46%
Hrytsenko 5.50%
Tyhipko 5.10%
Dobkin 3.36%
Rabinovych 2.22%
Bohomolets 1.90%
Symonenko 1.53%
Tyahnybok 1.16%
Yarosh 0.67%
Hrynenko 0.43%
Konovalyuk 0.37%
Boyko 0.19%
Malomuzh 0.15%
Kuzmin 0.10%
Kuybida 0.07%
Klymenko 0.06%
Tsushko 0.04%
Saranov 0.03%
Shkiryak 0.02%
Invalid ballots 1.36%
Total number of votes recorded so far 5,637,223

[Famous Mortimer]

No need to keep going unless the order changes, bro.

[ag]

No need to keep going unless the order changes, bro.

50% is also important

the order will not much change. But there are many interesting things in that table - at least, for me

[ag]

So, a couple of districts in Lviv have, actually, finished counting, so we can do some comparisons. Turnout there is notably up compared to the (hotly contested) second round in 2010.

Turnout
District 118 Lviv
2014 91,920 votes (77.7%)
2010-2 86,992 votes (72.3%)

District 120 Lviv
2014 157,629 votes (76.1%)
2010-2 145,086 votes (70.2%)  

Update: on the other hand, the few districts in Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk that finished as well are showing even bigger reductions in turnout (by around 30%).

[minionofmidas]

Also, though, at least, Akhmetov ensured that Mariupol had functioning precincts, very few people turned out. No precinct is much above 20%, many are closer to 10%. Also, so far almost nothing from the second Mariupol district.

And how did those few people vote?

[ag]

Also, though, at least, Akhmetov ensured that Mariupol had functioning precincts, very few people turned out. No precinct is much above 20%, many are closer to 10%. Also, so far almost nothing from the second Mariupol district.

And how did those few people vote?

Poroshenko still leads, but by a smaller margin. Summing up over the two Mariupol districts 58 and 59 (there are only a couple of hundred votes in the 2 precincts that have reported from district 58, anyway) we have

Poroshenko 7,836 votes
Tihipko 3,745 votes
Rabinovich 1,170 votes
Dobkin 1,074 votes
Timoshenko 1,003 votes

Everybody else under a thousand votes each. Interestingly enough, slightly elevated result for the Ukrainian ultra Yarosh: so far, he has 221 votes here, around 1.15%, which is almost double his national share (0.66%).

So far, Poroshenko leads in every district in the country but 1 (Dobkin is ahead in one of the Kharkiv ones - favorite son effect).  There are a total of 225 districts in theory, though as 12 of those are in Crimea and Sevastopol, these are certainly out. There are still no precincts reporting from 17 districts in Donetsk and 10 in Luhansk (most of these did not have the election, though some, apparently, did, but have trouble reporting).