Ecuadorian Local Elections 2014

[Sir John Johns]

Local elections are held today in Ecuador. The prefects of all 24 provinces but the Gálapagos (where the post no longer exists), mayors and cantonal councils of the 221 cantons are up for reelection. Parish councils (junta parroquial) in the 412 urban and 816 rural parishes are also renewed. Provincial prefects and mayors are directly elected under FPTP; members of cantonal and parish councils are elected through a system of open list with major cities being now divided into electoral districts. Electoral vote will be used for the first time at a large scale (1 out of 11.6 millions of voters).

Prefects and mayors are term-limited; they can't serve more than two five-year terms in office. The measure was introduced by the 2008 Constitution (which also increase the duration of the term of office from four to five years) and came into effect in the 2009 election. As it isn't retroactive for years before 2009, several mayors and prefects, sometimes elected and reelected since 1996, are running for a third, fourth or fifth term in office. There are talks about an eventual abolition of the term limits, opening the way for a third term of Rafael Correa. So far, Correa has denied any interest in another reelection, but it is widely assumed he would run in 2017.

The provincial prefect (prefecto de provincia) preside over the non-directly elected provincial council made up of the prefect, the vice-prefect (elected on the same ballot), the mayors of cantons and the presidents of the parish councils. Prefects are in charge of spatial planning, construction and maintenance of roads, water management, nature protection and promotion of agricultural and economical activities. Their authority in these fields is however confined to the rural areas, mayors effectively handling over the same tasks in urban areas. Prefects have very limited powers in the financial and fiscal areas and received most of their resources from the central government who tended to favor its political allies over its opponents. Traditionally, the prefects have a large political influence as they control access to public procurement and the hiring of civil servants in the provincial administration. Consequently, they are keen to use these powers to build patronage networks by awarding public contracts to friend businessmen and by dispensing fictitious jobs and sinecures (pipones) to their supporters.

Provincial prefect share authority over province with the non-elected provincial governor (gobernador de provincia). Provincial governor is appointed by the central government and put in charge of the coordination of the national civil service (notably police) on provincial level. The office of provincial governor is highly politicized and generally given to members of the presidential party. It is pretty common to see a provincial governor jumping into local politics and seeking election to the post of provincial prefect in the province he administers. There is no governor in the province of Pichincha as it is the seat of the national government.

The mayor (alcalde) is the head of canton and presides over the cantonal councils made up of the urban and rural councilors representing the canton's different parishes. Mayors deal, among other things, with space planning, urban planning, water and waste management, building and maintenance of the urban roads. They have tax-raising powers which they gave them more autonomy than the prefect. Mayors of Guayaquil (most populated city) and Quito have extended powers and are seen as high-profile political figures.
The last election was held in 2009 concurrently with the presidential and legislative elections. The newly created National Electoral Council (CNE) proved unable to correctly oversee the polls and there were many recriminations. While Correa won a large victory in the presidential race, the result of the local elections was quite a disappointment for PAIS, which failed to oust from office many solidly entrenched outgoing officials.

Here are the maps of winner party in 2009 prefecture race and of the current affiliation of the outgoing prefect. A circle means an endorsement by another party. Two prefects were removed from office since 2009: the MPD prefect of Esmeraldas (but her MPD vice-prefect managed to succeed her) and the Pachakutik prefect of Cotopaxi. In that last case, he was replaced by his vice-prefect, elected as Pachakutik, but running for election for a full term as a PAIS candidate.



The map shows also the demise of the PSP: the prefect of Guayas, Jimmy Jairala, elected with its support in 2009, has turned an ally of PAIS, while the alliance it forged with the local movement Mushuk Inti in Sucumbíos had collapsed; the current prefect of Sucumbíos doesn't run for reelection, but Mushuk Inti is now allied with PAIS. The only PSP prefect, the prefect of Napo, has defected to PAIS.

Finally, it also illustrates the strategy followed by PAIS: making alliance with deeply entrenched local caudillos, especially in the Costa, in exchange of public funds for big works. The prefect of El Oro, Montgomery Sánchez, was elected in 2009 with over 80% of votes, but faced no PAIS candidate, so it should be seen as a tacit endorsement. In the province of Azuay, the current prefect, Paúl Carrasco, elected with the support of PAIS, has turned into a vocal opponent of Correa and is running for reelection with the support of local left-wing parties.

The Municipalist Movement for National Integrity (MMIN) was a vaguely left-wing party, headed by former Quito mayor Paco Moncayo and grouping number outgoing mayors and prefects running for reelection in 2009. Its main goal was to defend the municipalities' autonomy and it could be considered as a sort of mayors' lobby. It quickly collapsed after the majority of its elected officials rallied Correa's party.



Same thing but for the mayor, but the maps are very messy (possible mistakes for the 2014 one, it's really hard to find information on politics in Central Sierra and Amazonia). I don't know what is the current affiliation of the two mayors in Northern Pastaza, but I'm sure they have left the PSP.

There were several mayors removing from office (notably through recall election), but most of the mayors elected in 2009 as still in office. 158 outgoing mayors are running for reelection, 41% having switched parties since 2009, mostly to rejoined PAIS. Among the most hit by defection are the now defunct Municipalist Movement for National Unity and the populist Patriotic Society and Roldosist Party.

[Sir John Johns]

I have began to wrote something more elaborated but I will never finished before the release of the first results. This is written in a rush so forget about the mistakes.

Here some interesting races

Quito municipal election
PAIS incumbent Augusto Barrera is running for reelection. He is facing former 2013 presidential candidate Mauricio Rodas, who is running for its center right United Society for More Action (SUMA). Rodas is supported by Antonio Ricaurte, who finished second behind Barrera in 2009. A declared supporter of Correa but an opponent to Barrera, the 35-year old Ricaurte is the head of the provincial left-wing-leaning Vive Movement. Campaigning on lower taxes, lower traffic fines and on the promise to build a Medellín-like Metrocable, Rodas closed the gap with Barrera and is even given winner in the last published polls. The eventuality of a victory of Rodas has plunged PAIS into panic. After having labeled the promise of lowering fines as “demagoguery”, Barrera has himself announced a big reduction of the amount of fines. Barrera's campaign manager was fired and Correa spent the last week to campaign heavily in favor of Barrera's reelection. The loss of Quito would be seen as a major defeat and would overshadow the PAIS gains elsewhere

Last polls: Cedatos: Rodas 42.4%, Barrera 39.6%; Market: Rodas 42%, Barrera 36%, Opinión Pública Barrera 40%, Rodas 38%

2009 results:
Augusto Barrera (PAIS) 43.14%
Antonio Ricaurte (Vive) 27.02%
Nelson Maldonado (MCND, centrist) 6.10%
Ramiro Borja (PSP) 5.51%

Guayaquil municipal election
Jaime Nebot, running for the conservative alliance between Madera de Guerrero and the Social Christian Party (PSC) is the big favorite. Nebot has been the incumbent since 2000 and the PSC control the municipality since 1992 having always won by wide margins. The PAIS candidate is Viviana Bonilla, the 30-year old former governor of Guayas (Guayaquil home province). The two other candidates (a Socialist and a Pachakutik) are non factors. While Nebot's reelection is not in doubt, PAIS has still a chance to gain control of the cantonal council.

Market poll: Nebot 52%, Bonilla 27%

2009 results:
Jaime Nebot (PSC/MG) 68.44%
María de los Ángeles Duarte (PAIS) 29.01%

Cuenca municipal election
In 2009, PAIS candidate Paúl Granda defeated center-left incumbent Marcelo Cabrera 49.95% vs. 40.72% in the third most-populated city in the country. This year, it is a rematch between Granda and Cabrera, now backed by prefect of Azuay Paúl Carrasco, a left-wing opponent to Correa. During his term in office, Granda had launched many works, much of them still being in progress. Cabrera has criticized Granda over the slowness in the carrying out of work and attacked Granda's tram project as way too expensive. The two other candidates are Lucia Cardoso (CREO, right-wing) who is running on insecurity and problems caused by alcohol consumption, and Alejandro Cordero (PSP, populist).

Azuay prefect election
Elected in 2004, the leftist prefect Paúl Carrasco was reelected in 2009 in a landslide (66%) with the support of PAIS. Since then, Carrasco has turned into a vocal opponent to Rafael Correa. He is running for reelection with the support of former Cuenca mayor Marcelo Cabrera, the marxist-leninist Democratic Popular Movement (MPD) and the new left-inspired Ruptura party. As Alberto Acosta made a poor showing there in the last presidential election, it is widely assumed that Carrasco will be defeated. However, gold mining projects in the south are deeply unpopular and a newspaper suggested that Carrasco, supported by various leftist/far-left parties, could be reelected. A defeat of the PAIS candidate former Cuenca municipal councilor María Caridad Vázquez, 36-year old, in the most left-wing province would be a serious blow to Correa.

Esmeraldas prefect election
After defeating in 2004 the populist Ecuadorian Roldosist Party (PRE) incumbent, the MPD (officially marxist-leninist) prefect Lucia Sosa was easily reelected in 2009 (48.7% vs. 38.8%) against the controversial PAIS candidate who was previously a leading politician in the provincial branch of banana magnate Alvaro Noboa's party, the PRIAN. The MPD is quite popular among Afro-Ecuadorians living in the oil-exporting port of Esmeraldas and its neighborhoods and this had turned the Esmeraldas province as some sort of MPD stronghold. Last year, Sosa was removed from office after being found guilty of having illegally fired two employees hired by his predecessor. It is suspected that the two guys were only hired because of their affiliation to the PRE (a common practice in Ecuador). This doesn't prevent Sosa to run for reelection with a former PRE member as running mate. She seems to be quite popular as the MPD used her image on much of their municipal candidates' electoral posters. The PAIS candidate is none other than former soccer player Iván Hurtado. Hurtado has been elected deputy last year and seems to have been chosen as candidate only because he is famous and black. Among other candidates, Lenín Chica (ex-PRIAN, ex-CREO) running for PAIS's sidekick Avanza, and Zoila Quijije Loor for CREO.

Esmeraldas municipal election
In 2000, the MPD Ernesto Estupiñán made history by becoming the first Afro-Ecuadorian mayor of a big city. Under Estupiñán's leadership, the crumbling city was modernized and Estupiñán's governance was largely praised by businessmen. After a comfortable reelection in 2004, Estupiñán was however barely reelected in 2009, winning 30.25% against 29.66 for PRE candidate Roberta Zambrano and 26.73% for the PAIS candidate.

Estupiñán is retiring and MPD nominated Abel Ávila Portocarrero, a doctor and former deputy to Constituent Assembly, as candidate. He faces former justice minister Lenín Lara (PAIS) and Roberta Zambrano (PRE) who ran again.

El Oro prefect election
Incumbent Montgomery Sánchez, in office since 1996, was reelected in a landslide (80.31%) thanks to the absence of a PAIS candidate and, presumably, to an effective clientelistic network. This year, Sánchez is running for a fifth term (must be a record in Ecuadorian history) for his own personal vehicle, the Regional Autonomous Movement (MAR), in alliance with PAIS. A former bigwig of the PRE, Sánchez is a big supporter of Correa and has actively campaigned for him in the past. However, in 2013, Correa suffered loses in El Oro, a province which used to be one of PAIS stronghold. While Sánchez's reelection is assured, it will be interesting to see if he managed to keep his voters. There are four other candidates (SUMA/PSC, MPD, CREO, and PS-FA) and I have no idea which one will finished second, but I am leaning toward the SUMA/PSC one.

In Machala, the capital of El Oro, incumbent mayor Carlos Falquez (PSC), was prevented to run for reelection by a National Electoral Council decision because, as a radio-owner, he failed to conform to the new communication law. A powerful local strongman, Falquez was several times deputy for El Oro and held the prefecture in the 1990s. He is a big rival of Montgomery Sánchez, the other El Oro strongman. In a hurry, PSC selected Falquez's own son, also named Carlos Falquez, to run instead. In 2009, Falquez was elected with 57.11%. It will be interesting to see if the PSC could manage to keep its only relevant stronghold outside of Guayas.

Orellana prefect election
The office of provincial prefect of the Amazonian province is currently held by Guadalupe Llori (Pachakutik). First elected as prefect in 2004, Llori was removed from office in 2007 by Correa's government and put into a jail under the accusations of terrorism and sabotage related to a strike that halted oil production in Orellana. After a campaign by international human rights NGOs, she was released and reelected prefect in 2009 with 29.44% in a close race against the MPD candidate (28.26%) and the PSP candidate (25.98%). PAIS candidate only received 7.41%

The province of Orellana made recently headlines for the controversial decision to open the Yasuní National Park to oil drilling and for the arrest of several Waorani indigenous under the accusation of “genocide” after the massacre of about 20 uncontacted indigenous by the Waorani. Both affairs have raised loud critics about Correa's indigenous and environmental policies.

Napo prefect election
The neighboring province of Napo is a stronghold of former populist president Lucio Gutiérrez. After failing to win the prefect office in 2004, Gutiérrez's PSP took the reins of the province after the 2009 election, in which PSP candidate won 41.85% against 28.42% for a local party candidate and 15.02% for the candidate backed by an alliance between PAIS and Pachakutik (who was the PSP candidate in 2004). Prefect Sergio Chacón has since left the PSP and is running for reelection under the PAIS banner. A defeat of the PSP could seriously hammered the party that have experienced the defection of many officials.

[Sir John Johns]

Seems like big loses for Correa:

According to El Universo, exit polls give

Cuenca
Marcelo Cabrera 50.4%
Paúl Granda 47.2%

Quito
Mauricio Rodas 56.5% !!!
Augusto Barrera 40.4%

Guayaquil
Jaime Nebot 60.2%
Viviana Bonilla 38.1%

PAIS candidates lose in the three biggest cities. First electoral defeat for Rafael Correa.

In the race for Guayas prefecture, the result was more closer than expected
Jimmy Jairala (Democratic Center, backed by PAIS) 50.3%
César Rohón (PSC) 43.5%

[Franknburger]

Thanks for the thread. As always, excellent background information and great maps! Please keep us informed about further results and their implications.

[Vega]

I second the above post! It's always great to see an excellent OP like this.

[Sir John Johns]

Thanks.

Paúl Carrasco is reelected prefect of Azuay, defeating PAIS candidate. PAIS had so far lost Santo Domingo de los Colorados (4th most populous city) and Manta (1st most populous city in Manabí). PAIS prefect of Pichincha is reelected but with a reduced margin compared to 2009.

Augusto Barrera has conceded defeat and said it is a "sad day" for Quito.

Unconfirmed by reliable sources so far: PAIS possibly also lost Riobamba, Tulcán and Ibarra while gaining the mayoraly of Esmeraldas from MPD. Carlos Falquez (PSC) elected mayor of Machala succeeding his father.

[Sir John Johns]

PAIS was trounced in the Amazonian provinces. According to the quick countings, the party barely won the province of Napo against a strong PSP et that's all. Pachakutik incumbents (all strong opponents to Correa's extractive policy) are reelected in Zamora Chinchipe, Morona Santiago and Orellana. SUMA won the province of Pastaza while the PSP confortably gains the province of Sucumbíos.

The biggest surprise, however, is that Montgomery Sánchez is currently losing 40.91% against 50.92% for his PSC/SUMA opponent. His share of vote was halved compared to 2009!

PAIS still retains the prefectures of the three most populated provinces (Guayas, Pichincha, Manabí) and gain the Esmeraldas prefecture from MPD.

Among the few gains of PAIS in the municipal races: Esmeraldas, ending 14 years of MPD rule (MPD finished third behind PAIS and PRE), and Durán, a populous surburb of Guayaquil. The ruling party was defeated in basically every other big cities: Manta, Riobamba, Latacunga, Babahoyo, Tulcán, Portoviejo, Ibarra, Loja, Azogues, ...

[Sir John Johns]

Results of quick counting for prefects (AP = Alianza PAIS)



Results on the CNE website

The situation is quite confuse in the province of Esmeraldas, as Lucia Sosa (MPD) claimed she has won with 44.6% against 33.4% for Hurtado.

In municipal races, it is now established that PAIS has only won one (Durán) out of the ten most populated cities.

Another election will be organized the March, 9, in the canton of Camilo Ponce Enríquez (Azuay), due to an electronic voting machine glitch: voters could only selected one candidate. Other revotes will be held in several places due to various causes: bad weather last Sunday, wrongly printed ballot papers, destruction of electoral material by militants in San Lorenzo (province of Esmeraldas).

Allegations of electoral fraud were raised by CREO (Guillermo Lasso's party, conservative) in Milagro, the third most populated city in Guayas. In the canton of Playas/General Villamil, two mayoral candidates refuse to acknowledge the victory of PAIS candidate and demand new elections to be held. Clashes between PAIS and Avanza supporters erupted in Latacunga and in Alfredo Baquerizo Moreno; the two parties are supposed to be allied. Finally, ballot boxes were burned by protesters in Yaguachi (Guayas).

[Sir John Johns]

Rafael Correa has announced a ministerial reshuffle and changes in the Alianza PAIS party. He blamed defeats on several places on the "sectarism" of PAIS which refused to make alliance with local parties.

However, the causes of PAIS electoral defeat can also be found in Correa's style of government since his reelection. Despite controling every branches of the state, he has appeared more confrontational, antagonistic and abrasive. Here the main developments since last year. Beware, long post.

In February 2013, Rafael Correa was reelected president in a landslide (57.2% against 22.7% for his closest opponent, Guillermo Lasso). In the concurrently held legislative elections, Correa's PAIS won a large majority (100 seats out of 137). Facing a weak and divided opposition in Congress, Correa is now left free to implement his political agenda. The legislation passed so far deals mainly with Correa's ambitious economic program (and its ecological consequences) and with the state supervision of the press and the already weak civil society.

Change of the Productive Matrix

Correa's economic agenda (the so-called Change of the Productive Matrix) is aiming to change the oil-dependent Ecuadorian economy into an industrial- and knowledge-based economy by using the oil windfall to finance infrastructure projects (renovation of the outdated road network, construction of airports in Quito and Guayaquil, building of hydro-electrical dams and project of a new harbor in Guayaquil), an increase of the higher education budget (accounting for 1.8% of GDP, the highest rate in Southern America) and the development of new industries in the area of oil refining, petrochemical, shipbuilding, steel and metalworking. Several high-tech projects have emerged with the launching of a nano-satellite and the announcement of production for export of Ecuadorian-made cheap drones.

This ambitious economical agenda, combined with generous social programs, has required a lot of money and seriously increased the trade deficit. Ecuador has unilaterally declared default on its foreign debt in 2008 and has difficulties to attract foreign investors due to excessive red tape and protectionist measures. So the country has turned toward China, one of the only countries still willing to loan money to Ecuador in exchange of oil delivery. Ecuador has become more and more reliant both on oil exports and on China's oil-backed lending. It is now estimated that Chinese funds cover 61% of the Ecuadorian government's financing needs and that China controls near 90% of Ecuador's oil exports.

Oil-drilling in the Yasuní

On August 15, 2013, President Correa announced the abandon of the Yasuní-ITT initiative, officially because of the lack of international support, and the opening of the Yasuní National Park - considered as  the most biological diverse spot on Earth - to oil drilling. Critics have alleged that the initiative has been abandoned under the pressure of China and because the government is desperately in need of cash.

According to Correa, the extraction of petroleum will finance economic development and help to fight the poverty, labeled as “the biggest polluter”. The Ecuadorian president also promised that only 1% (he later changed that figure to 0.1%) of the park will be affected by oil extraction and that no road will be built in the park (the building of roads and the unavoidable anarchic colonization it would provoked is considered as a far more biggest threat to the Yasuní.

The announcement provoked some protests by students and ecologists and a march to Quito of several indigenous militants but they failed to gather large crowds. Police was accused of using paint guns and rubber bullets against protestors. The ministry of Interior denied the accusation before being force to acknowledge the use of paint guns after video evidence surfaced. For its part, PAIS tried to organize counter-demonstrations but they gathered even less people than the defenders of the Yasuní.

A quite telling incident occurred in the aftermath of one of the protest against oil-drilling, illustrating the rift between Correa and the traditional left-wing/far-left militants: anarchist singer Jaime Guevara gave Correa the finger in the passing of the presidential motorcade. The president got out of his car and threatened him with his bodyguards. Correa called Guevara a drunken and a drug-addict and repeated later these accusations in a TV broadcast. However, Guevara is famous for being a teetotaler and suffering from epilepsy, possibly mistaken for alcoholism by the president. Correa was later forced to apologize after Guevara received the support from two prominent human rights activists who confirmed that Guevara doesn't drink nor doing drug.

Referendum on the Yasuní?

After Correa rejected a call by opponents to organize a consulta (referendum) on the opening of Yasuní to oil drilling, a campaign was launched to gather the 600,000 required signatures to force a binding consulta on the subject. The campaign was initiated by Julio César Trujillo, a respected veteran politician; the former leader of the left-wing of the christian-democratic DP , he was later a founder of Pachakutik. The so-called Yasunidos (mostly students and ecologist activists), with the help of the indigenous CONAIE, are currently trying to collect the required number of signatures before the April 2014 deadline. The Yasunidos have denounced political pressures from the ruling party to dissuade citizens from signing the petition; however, they are optimistic about their chance of success. Nevertheless, the Supreme Court will still have to examine the constitutionality of the proposed question; it has refused to do so before the gathering of signatures would be finished.

Correa has tried to portray the Yasunidos as irresponsible and naïve leftists (still the refrain about the “infantile left”) who don't care about the poor and are possibly manipulated by foreign powers. He obtained the support of 180 mayors, including every mayor from the province of Orellana, home to the Yasuní National Park. Most of these elected officials want their share of the cake and several seems to still have plans to spend the money. Amazonian mayors supporters of the oil-drilling have began to gather signatures to summon another consulta, this one in favor of oil-drilling.

Public support for oil drilling is unknown; both Correa and ecological organizations produced questionable polls with either 56% in favor and around 90% against (but in this last case, the question was asked before Correa's announcement). Some Waorani communities, living near the Yasuní, have trade support to the oil-drilling in exchange of concrete houses and paved roads.

Correa vs. Chevron

Ironically, while at home Correa is trying to persuade environmentalist that future oil-drilling in the Yasuní will have few ecological consequences, he is engaged abroad into a judicial war against Chevron. The oil company is sued by the victims of heavy oil pollution in the Amazonian province of Sucumbíos that occurred in the 1980s. The saga trial has so far involved Ecuadorian, US, and Canadian courts and the Permanent Arbitration Court and is still pendent. In September 2013, Correa has launched an international boycott campaign against the oil company and received the support of several US celebrities, including Mia Farrow.

The Taromenane

Perhaps predictably, the oil drilling in Yasuní raised, once again, the indigenous question. About 300 indigenous, the Taromenane and the Tagaeri, live in voluntary isolation in the Yasuní National Park, following a semi-nomadic lifestyle. They only have contacts with the Waorani and few is known about their culture and their exact location. Concerns were raised about the survival of these indigenous and, more generally, about the impact of oil-drilling on the lifestyle and the culture of the Waorani and the other indigenous living in Orellana. Indigenous living in the more northern province of Sucumbíos have faced oil-drilling from the 1960s. Their culture and languages are now near-extinct and their environment is very degraded.

After the decision to drill in the Yasuní was taken, the government issued an updated map of the presumed locations of uncontact indigenous. The new map, indicating that the Taromenane no longer live in the area of the projected drilling, was denounced as deliberately inaccurate by various ethnologists and indigenous activists who raised accusations of “ethnocide” against Correa.

Called to testify before National Assembly, the vice-president of the Waorani nation, Alicia Cawiya, rather than read a declaration in favor of oil-drilling as expected, delivered instead an emotional speech in favor of the Taromenane and called deputies to let them live the way they wish. The speech, acclaimed by the opposition, embarrassed the ranks of the governing majority that, nevertheless, voted in favor of oil-drilling.

Few days before Cawiya's speech, the publication of a book, Una tragedia ocultada (A Hidden Tragedy), has stirred even more controversy. The book reveals the circumstances surrounding a massacre of around 20 Taromenane by a Waorani group that had happened in March 2013; after the massacre, two surviving Taromenane girls were taken by the Waorani. The slaughter was perpetrated in retaliation for the previous murder of an elder couple of Waorani by the Taromenane. The Taromenane were apparently upset by the increased number of flights over their territory and by the growing presence of non-indigenous in their neighborhood.

Ecuadorian government banned the publication of the book, few hours before its presentation to the public. As the book began to widely circulate on the Internet, the government backtracked. Criticized for its inaction in response to the massacre, Correa finally decided to order the arrest of the suspected perpetrators of the massacre on charges of “genocide”. Two military helicopters burst in a Waorani village and rescued one of the two abducted girls. Only six of the eighteen presumed murderers were arrested and put in jail. The arrests were ill received by Waorani who considered the murderers should be judged according to the traditional indigenous justice.

[Sir John Johns]

The mining projects

In July, the National Assembly also passed a law making mining investments more interesting and easier for foreign investors. Numerous mining projects are currently under development but they face a strong opposition from the local population, notably because of the threat of water pollution. The hotbeds of the opposition to mining are the Cordillera del Cóndor (an area in Zamora Chinchipe reputed for its rich ecosystem) where protests are organized by Shuar (a Jivaroan people), and the southern part of Azuay; there a project of gold mine in Quimsacocha was rejected in 2011 by voters through a local consulta (dubbed as illegal by the government) and the following year the leftist MPD won election in the newly created parish of Cañaribamba by campaigning against gold mining.

The Communication Law

Since having taking office, Correa has constantly criticized the press and has labeled it as his number one enemy. But since Correa's reelection, fight against the press have become even more harsh. In June 2013, the National Assembly passed a Communication Law defining information as a public good and guaranteeing a constitutional right to a “verified, contrasted, precise, and contextualized” information. The law also prohibits “media lynching”, defined as the publication of information “with the purpose of undermining the prestige or credibility of a person or legal entity” and creates an obligation for the convicted media to publish a “rectification” or an apology.

A post of Superintendent of Information and Communication (Supercom) was created and put in charge of the law enforcement and the evaluation of the “media lynching” accusations. Finally, the law ensured an equal distribution of the radio-electric frequencies (one third each) between private media, public media, and community media. Anonymity on the Internet is also threatened as the law make the online media responsible of the user comments published on its website.

While some parts of the law were well-received, the vague wording of the bill, especially concerning the definition of “media lynching”, was heavily criticized for possibly obstructing journalistic investigations regarding cases of public corruption. The post of Supercom was denounced for lacking of independence (the office-holder is appointed by the president and part of the executive branch) and for having too much room for interpretation of the poorly-written law.

The Bonil case

Critics were prove to be right by the ensuing events. Just after Christmas, police raided the homes of Fernando Villavicencio - a journalist who investigates corruption in the oil industry - and of Cléver Jiménez - a Pachakutik deputy from Zamora Chinchipe - and seized computers, laptops, and phones. Both men were accused of hacking Rafael Correa's email account and disclosing illegally intercepted documents. The day after, the newspaper El Universo published a cartoon by Xavier Bonilla “Bonil” which presented the police raid to Villavicencio as a Christmas gift from Correa. The cartoon caption: Police and prosecution raid Fernando Villavicencio's home and take documentation on denunciations of corruption.

Bonil was sued by the Supercom because the cartoon “doesn't correspond to the reality of the facts and stigmatizes the actions taken by both the prosecutor general and the judiciary police. El Universo was sentenced to pay a fine of 90,000$ and to publish a “correction” to the cartoon. In the corrected cartoon, published the 5th February, Bonil changed the legend to Police and prosecution raid Fernando Villavicencio's home and seize his tablets, computers, and phones, and, sarcastically, presented a courteous police being welcomed a Villavicencio who has full confidence in the justice.

Internet hacking scandal

Ironically, few days after the raid on Villavicencio's home about a supposed hacking of Correa's email account, another Internet hacking affair broke out. The state-owned newspaper El Telégrapho published information about the supposed financing by the US National Endowment for Democracy of a projected news agency which would investigate corruption in public life. The head of the project is Martha Roldós, daughter of former President Jaime Roldós and a left-wing politician who ran for president in 2009 against Correa. Roldós stated that El Telégrapho had published documents that were stolen from her own email account. Roldós blamed the government or one of its allies to be behind the hacking. Public medias had launched a quite disgusting campaign against Roldós, denouncing her as an enemy of the state who have betrayed the ideals of her father. Roldós has since file a complaint of “media lynching” which was rejected.

Executive Decree 16

In June 2013, the Executive Decree 16 was adopted. It established a National Secretary of Politics Management, in charge of regulating and monitoring the NGOs. News procedures were created restraining the possibilities to get legal status for NGOs. Finally, it gave large powers to the president to dissolve NGOs on vague pretexts and with no right of appeal.

After the Chilean ambassador to Ecuador and the representative of the Belarus' state oil company were attacked during a protest against the grant of oil concessions in southeastern Ecuador, the environmental and indigenous rights organization Fundación Pachamama was dissolved the 4th December, six days after the protest, on the ground that several of its members participated in the assault against foreign representatives. The closure order indicated that Fundacián Pachamama had deviated from the aims and objectives for which it was created and had engaged in political activities, reserved for registered political parties, that affected the public peace. The head of the CONAIE Humberto Cholango and several other indigenous leaders are currently under investigation for their presumed participation in the violent protest.

More attacks on ecologists

Three days after the dissolution of the Fundación Pachamama, Rafael Correa, during a television broadcast, spoke out against a manual entitled Protecting Your Community against mining companies and other extractives industries allegedly used by supposedly foreign supported environmentalist activists in order to destabilize Ecuador. Correa attacked by name the author of the book, Carlos Zorrilla, a Cuban-born American who lived in Ecuador since years and has led several initiatives to oppose mining in the region of Intag (province of Imbabura) and to create sustainable economic activities in the area. Zorrilla denied claims that his guide advocated any violent forms of resistance. Correa's attacks on Zorrilla was so violent that Amnesty International issued a press release about its growing concerns about Zorrilla's safety.

Correa vs. the doctors

During the last months, Correa also clashed with the doctors. A new Criminal Code was adopted in October 2013. Generally denounced as poorly written, it has attracted the critics from human rights organizations about the vague definition of the crimes of sabotage and terrorism occasionally used to prosecute protesters. However it was the section of the law dealing with criminal medical malpractice which rise the biggest opposition. The new law permits judges to sentence to prison doctors if it is proven that the death of a patient was provoked by “dangerous, unnecessary and illegitimate actions”. Considering that this part of the law is poorly written and provides scope for serious abuse, doctors took to the streets in protest and threatened to resign en masse. Correa responded by threatening to hire Cuban doctors to replace eventual resigning doctors and himself threatened to resign if the National Assembly changed the wording of the law; according to a newspaper, it is the Correa's 13th threat of resignation since he took office in 2007. A deal was finally reached at the end of last month leaving the task to clarify the wording of the law to the National Court of Justice.

No to abortion

During the debates on the new penal code, in October, an incident has exemplified the lack of independence of PAIS deputies from the president. Three PAIS assemblywomen introduced a motion to legalize abortion in the case of rape and received the support of about twenty other PAIS deputies. However, Correa, a staunch pro-lifer, labeled the supporters of the motion as “traitors” and threatened to resign (apparently his 12th threat) if the measure passed. The motion was quickly withdrawn, effectively killing debate on the subject. The three assemblywomen were later suspended for a month from the ruling party.

[Sir John Johns]

Some interesting articles:

In the Guayaquil mayoral race, Jaime Nebot won 17 out of 20 parishes. Nebot's best results are in the inner city parishes; Viviana Bonilla's best results are in the rural parishes, notably in the Puná island and the exclave of Tenguel. The PSC-Madera de Guerrero alliance is ensured to have a majority in the cantonal council.

In Quito, while incumbent PAIS mayor was crushed, the ruling party still managed to keep a plurality of seats in the cantonal council; the same happened in Cuenca. As in Guayaquil, PAIS's best results are in the rural parts of the canton of Quito. In the cantonal councilors election, the results made show a divide between the northern parishes, won by Rodas' SUMA, and the center and southern parishes won by PAIS's lists. Outgoing mayor Augusto Barrera significantly underperformed in urban area, especially comparing to the prefectoral race where PAIS incumbent won 59%/31% according to the votes counted so far. The article highlights Barrera's bad results in the parishes where numerous public construction projects have been undertaken.

Situation is similar in several other provinces; while the PAIS-backed prefect is reelected by wide margins, the PAIS candidate in main cities were severely defeated.

Results in provinces; followed by results in main cities; *=incumbent; numbers are approximative as the vote count is still ongoing.

Manabí prefecture:
Mariano Zambrano (PAIS)*: 56%
Jorge Luis Pérez (Avanza) 17.5%
Jaime Cedeño (SUMA) 15%

Portoviejo
Agustín Casanova (SUMA) 40.75%
Félix Alcivar (PAIS) 33%
Veronica Mendoza (Avanza) 13%

Manta
Jorge Zambrano (SUMA) 53.5%
Jaime Estrada (PAIS)* 40%

Los Ríos prefecture

Marco Troya (PAIS)* 62%
Gissel Rosado (PSC-PSP-CREO-PRIAN-PRE-SUMA) 16.5%
Fabián López Zavala (Avanza) 15%

Quevedo
Jorge Domínguez (Avanza) 46%
John Salcedo Cantos (PAIS)* 33.5%

Babahoyo
Jonny Terán (PSC-CREO-PSP) 61.5%
Héctor Hurtado Soriano (PAIS) 33.5%

Chimborazo prefecture
Mariano Curicama (PAIS-Pachakutik)* 42%
Pedro Curichumbi (Avanza-Amauta Yuyay) 20%
Bélgica Villamarín (CREO-Renovación) 13%

Riobamba
Napoleón Cadena (CREO-Renovación) 40%
José Luis Díaz Vallejo (Avanza) 22%
Mauro Andino Espinoza (PAIS-Pachakutik) 20.5%

Tungurahua prefecture
Fernando Naranjo (PAIS)* 52%
Fernando González (SUMA-Movimiento Cívico) 26.5%
José Luis Quispe López (CREO-PSP-PRIAN) 11%

Ambato
Luis Amoroso (Avanza) 29%
Alexis Sánchez Miño (PAIS) 27%
Javier Altamirano (SUMA-Movimiento Cívico) 26.5%

Santa Elena prefecture
Patricio Cisneros (PAIS-Peninsular Movement)* 79%
José Álava Jiménez (CREO) 10.5%

La Libertad
Antonio Espinoza Infante (CREO-Libertad Independent Movement) 43%
Marco Chango (PAIS-Peninsular Movement)* 27%

Santo Domingo prefecture
Geovanny Benítez (PAIS)* 58.5%
Jorge Delgado (SUMA-Avanza) 15.8%

Santo Domingo de los Colorados
Víctor Manuel Quirola (SUMA-Avanza) 44.2%
Verónica Zurita (PAIS)* 37.7%

Cañar prefecture
Santiago Correa (PAIS)* 58%
Wilfredo Rivera Reinoso (CREO) 29%

Azogues
Virgilio Saquicela (CREO) 30%
Bertha Molina (PAIS) 23%
Eugenio Morocho (PS-FA)* 17%
Diego Ormaza (Avanza) 17%

PAIS however staid strong in the rural cantons as the party is still the strongest in the country in terms of cantons held.

There are exceptions however. PAIS was defeated in three out of the eight cantons where big mining projects have been launched/proposed in Zamora Chinchipe, Morona Santiago and Azuay, while barely won the canton of El Pangui (Zamora Chinchipe), the location of an important copper mining project. In the provinces of Zamora Chinchipe and Morona Santiago, opposition to PAIS has run on the promise to legalize the smallscale artisanal mines. Conversely, Franklin Cox (PAIS) is reelected mayor of Aguarico with 49% (he received the same number in 2009); the canton is home to an important Waorani community and of the major part of Yasuní National Park.

[Famous Mortimer]

Did Avanza swtich to being anti-government?

[Sir John Johns]

Did Avanza swtich to being anti-government?

No. The party still presents itself as a social-democratic  and center-left alternative to PAIS, but still supporting Correa. In one of their candidate electoral poster, Avanza was defined a "the best option of the Citizens' Revolution". It is a bit comparable to the relation between United Russia and A Just Russia. After the election, the leader of Avanza, Ramiro González, who is currently part of the Ecuadorian cabinet as minister of Industry, proposed a stronger and more formal alliance with PAIS. The price to pay seems to be more ministerial portfolios for Avanza members.

That being said, PAIS refused to run joint candidates neither with Avanza nor with its other ally, the Socialist Party. Avanza has managed to field many candidates, recruinting notably among veteran local caudillos. I have also seen several cases of politicians that, having failing to win the PAIS primaries, choose to run as Avanza candidates. As I wrote somewhere above, Avanza and PAIS supporters fight against each others in several places, so the relation between the two parties is quite complicate.

[Sir John Johns]

Rafael Correa has changed his mind about the 2017 presidential election and said “it's my duty to review the sincere decision not to run for reelection”. Few hours before, the PAIS caucus had announced its intention to examine the advisability of introducing a constitutional amendment to scrap term limits. According to the president of the National Assembly, Gabriela Rivadeneira, the move is unrelated with PAIS electoral defeat last Sunday.

In other news, El Comercio has announced the death of Dayuma, the first Waorani to have been contacted by non-indigenous, in the 1950s. The encounter, which took place in a Kichwa community where Dayuma had found refuge after the murder of his father by a Waorani warrior, led to a first evangelical mission among the Waorani which ended by the massacre of the missionaries by the Waorani. A second mission later led to the conversion of the Waorani and permanent contact with the outside world.

[Zanas]

Scrapping term limits is never a good sign, democratically speaking...

[Sir John Johns]

Today, a new vote is organized in several parishes after the vote hold on 23 February was nullified for various reasons ranging from destruction of electoral materials to bad weather.

In the canton of Ponce Enríquez (Azuay), where the vote was stopped after the voting machines bugged, voters will vote for mayor and for prefect. The latter race is pretty useless as Paúl Carrasco was reelected prefect by large margins. On the other hand, the mayoral race is more interesting as the incumbent MPD mayor is running for reelection in one of the few cantons the leftist party still held. Gold has been mining since 30 years in Ponce Enríquez and according to census data the extractive sector is the biggest employer in the canton. The MPD mayor is apparently an opponent to the mining and its environmental impact (water pollution). Last year, there was a case of water pollution and several miners died in a mining accident.

Also crucial for the MPD will be the election in parts of the canton of Muisne (Esmeraldas). Voting was stopped here on 23 February after violence broke out and destruction of electoral materials was reported. Muisne has a long story of political violence; in 2006, the voting (in presidential and legislative elections) was already stopped after Lucio Gutiérrez's partisans stole and burnt ballot boxes. Main economic activity in Muisne is agriculture, but the census data show a high number of “undeclared” professional activity which seems to indicate a strong informal/illegal sector. Mestizos are a majority in the canton, but there is a strong Afro-Ecuadorian minority.

Some 10,000 voters in Muisne voters will vote for both prefect and mayor. The vote will be decisive to determine who will be the next prefect of Esmeraldas. After all other cantons in Esmeraldas counted, Lucia Sosa (MPD) is leading Iván Hurtado (PAIS) by less than 2,500 votes. There is also a new mayoral election after allegations of fraud in favor of the PAIS candidate was raised. The local politics in Muisne looks like a huge mess. The MPD mayor Ángel Bernal, elected in 2009, defected to PAIS but was later removed from office by the PAIS-controled cantonal council in favor of Paúl Vélez (PAIS). This latter then left PAIS and escaped an attempt to remove him from office. So now, Bernal is running for SUMA and Vélez for Avanza while PAIS was plagued by a civil war over who would be acting mayor during Vélez's campaign. For his part, the PSP candidate was also accused of embezzlement.

There is also several voting in Guayas, Tungurahua, Napo, Manabí, Morona Santiago and Esmeraldas to elect mayors or parish councillors. In the canton of Lomas de Sargentillo (Guayas), election was planned to be held today but was 'suspended' by the CNE at the last minute.

[Sir John Johns]

Results in Ponce Enríquez:
Manuel Espinoza Participa/Igualdad* 53.37%
Rubén Erraez Capelo (PS-FA) 13.9%
Baldor Bermeo (PAIS) 10.52%
inc. Patricio Sánchez (MPD) 9.38
Patricia Villacís Muñoz (CREO) 2.35%
Glenda Barzallo Torres (Avanza) 1.37%
blanks 6.63%
null 2.44%

* respectively Paúl Carrasco's and Marcelo Cabrera's party

A big loss for the MPD and a bad result for PAIS

In Muisne, Lucía Sosa (MPD) won over Iván Hurtado (PAIS) and is thus reelected prefect of Esmeraldas with 2,420 votes ahead of Hurtado. Sosa was certainly saved by the lack of political experience of Hurtado and the strong result of the third candidate Lenín Chica (Avanza) who split the pro-government vote.

In the Muisne mayor race:
Walquer Vera (PAIS) 37.52%
Tairon Quintero (PSP) 19.11%
inc. Paul Vélez (Avanza) 18.53%

MPD candidate won 5.76% and former mayor Ángel Bernal (SUMA) finished 9th out of 10 candidates with 0.84%

PAIS controled now 6 out of 7 cantons in Esmeraldas, one of the two only provinces where it made noticeable gains. The MPD only won the prefecture and the last canton was won by the Roldosist Party. The other province where PAIS made gains is the province of Guayas. The ruling party won here the cantons of Durán and Milagro (respectively second and third most populated cantons in Guayas).

Next Sunday, voters will revote in two cantons: Lomas de Sargentillo (Guayas) and Pedernales (Manabí) for prefect (this will change nothing to the final result), mayor and parrish councilors.

[Sir John Johns]

The National Electoral Council hopes it could publish the definitive results on 15 April, nearly two months after the poll, as the new elected officials must take office on next 14th May. According to El Universo 69% of the mayors who seek reelection were defeated. PAIS was defeated in all of the provincial capital in Sierra and failed to won a single canton in three provinces: Loja, Sucumbíos and Carchi.

The government reshuffle took place on 31 March (even if many of the changes had been announced days before). The changes include the return of Vinicio Alvarado to the National Secretariat of Public Administration a post he held until last year when he was appointed minister of Tourism. Fernando Cordero resigned the head of the Ecuadorian Institute of Social Security to became coordinator minister for Safety. A former mayor of Cuenca and president of the National Assembly, Cordero was blamed by Ramiro González for the loss of Cuenca in the election. Carlos Marx Carrasco became minister for labor relations; since Correa's accession to power, he was head of the Ecuadorian IRS and in that post oversee the seizure of Álvaro Noboa's property as this last failed to pay back the taxes he neglected to pay. Carrasco was criticized for his active involvement in Augusto Barrera's campaign in Quito and his attacks against Rodas's fiscal program. Finally Viviana Bonilla was rewarded for her good showing in the Guayaquil race with the post of national secretary for policy-making; she replaced Betty Tola, a veteran politician and former Pachakutik militant, who is retiring. The reshuffle was described as enhancing the Guayas province's weight in the cabinet and as weakening the left-wing of Alliance PAIS. Speaking of the ruling party, its national secretary, Galo Mora, will probably be replaced next month in the national convention of the party which will be held in Esmeraldas on 1st May. Also, neither Avanza nor PS-FA gained extra portfolios.

The amendment allowing indefinite re-election will be adopted by the National Assembly (where PAIS has a super-majority) and not through a risky referendum. There are still discussions to extend the indefinite re-election to prefects and mayors while some has suggested that Correa could not run in 2017 but rather in 2021 after having left a proxy in charge of the presidency for a single term.

SUMA has already experienced some internal turmoil. Rodas has announced he would “develop a spirit of coexistence with the government”. This angered SUMA only deputy, Ramiro Aguilar, who announced he left the party as he supported a more confrontational stance toward the Correa administration. This was somewhat predictable as SUMA's political position is very confuse: for example, the party was allied with PSC in El Oro but with the MPD in Tungurahua; similarly while running as an opposition party in most of the provinces, in Santo Domingo de Tsáchilas, it was running with Avanza, an ally of PAIS on national level.

The PSC is currently preparing the ground for an eventual Jaime Nebot's candidacy in the 2017 presidential election. However, Guillermo Lasso has still declared he will be the CREO's candidate.For his part, Rodas has stated he will not run if elected mayor of Quito but Ecuadorian politicians rarely keep their promise. And, of course, Álvaro Noboa has still declared he will run for president for the sixth consecutive time despite being exiled in Florida.

A judge issued a warrant for the imprisonment for 18 months of assemblyman Cléver Jiménez and of journalist Fernando Villavicencio. Trade-unionist Carlos Figueroa was sentenced to six month in jail. The sentence was denounced by the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights which requested the adoption of precautionary measures for the three convicts. Jiménez is apparently hiding somewhere in the province of Zamora Chinchipe. So far the assemblymen failed to agree upon his removal from office and Jiménez's substitute managed to take his seat.

Today is the last day for the Yasunidos to collect the 600,000 signatures to force a referendum on oil drilling in the Yasuní. The ecologist militants have faced further opposition from the government as the rival campaign to collect signatures (in support of oil extraction) initiated by mayors from the Amazonia used logos and layouts plagiarizing Yasunidos' ones in order to confuse the public. There is a third campaign to gather signatures, this one organized by a mysterious Frente de Defensa Total de la Amazonía and calling for the ban of all extractive activities in Ecuador. This latter organization is possibly under remote control by the government to increase confusion.

On a funnier note: here the new mayor of Pallatanga (Chimborazo)


Similarly, in Espejo (Carchi), a guy named Lenín Carrera defeated another guy named Gandhy Marcelo Vasquez.

[Sir John Johns]

AFAIK the CNE has still not proclaimed final results. Anyway there was a revoting (yeah, another one) on 13th April in the canton of Balzas (Guayas), an agricultural canton with a strong (30.55%) Montubio minority. Outgoing mayor Cirilo González (Ecuadorian Roldosist Party) was reelected by a thin margin over the PAIS candidate in February

Cirilo González (PRE) 30.34%
Jesús Párraga (PAIS) 29.17%
Alex Zambrano (PSC-MdG) 26.93%
seven other candidates polled between 3.58% and 0.9%

Párraga demanded the cancellation of the results of the ground that assessors in several polling station were also municipal civil servants. The CNE decided consequently a new vote with quite hilarious results:

Cirilo González (PRE) 36%
Alex Zambrano (PSC-MdG) 32.51%
Jesús Parraga (PAIS) 27.96%
seven other candidates polled between 1.1% and 0.2%

So, PRE keeps the control of its only remaining canton in Guayas province but, if my calculation are correct, it rules now only three cantons throughout the country. PRE is now very close to disappearing, especially as it no longer has a leader: Dalo Bucaram abruptly resigned the party leadership last January while the historic leader Abdalá Bucaram, who is living in exile in Panamá since 1997, has health problems. The same goes for PRIAN which only won a single canton and whose leader Álvaro Noboa currently resides in Florida and will face big judicial troubles if he returned in Ecuador.


The CNE was still busy these last weeks as two different organizations submitted the 584k signatures required to force a consulta: the Frente de Defensa Total de la Amazonia submitted 600k signatures in favor of a complete prohibition of extractive activity in Ecuador; YASunidos submitted 757.923 signatures in support of a consulta on the prohibition of oil drilling in the Yasuní Park.

The CNE has nullified between 160 and 240k signatures from the Frente due to the lack of photocopies of the national IDs of the gatherers meaning that their consulta project is already dead. On the same grounds, only 599,103 signatures submitted by the YASunidos were approved by the CNE, and there is still another upcoming reviewing process to check the authenticity of every gathered signature. If the CNE approved over 584k signatures, then the YASunidos's question will still have to be approved by the Constitutional Court. The YASunidos have denounced several irregularities in the reviewing process and claimed that the CNE officials deliberately sabotage the box containing the IDS of all the collectors.


In other news, the National Assembly will have to vote on a Territory Planning law (Ley de Ordenamiento Territorial) which will create a post of Superintendent of Land and Soil that could 'impose sanctions to mayors'. The project is strongly rejected by Jaime Nebot, Mauricio Rodas, the SUMA elected-mayor of Manta, and Guillermo Lasso and has been labeled as unconstitutional and undemocratic by the opposition. It is also perceived as an attempt to regain control over the cantons lost in the election.

Cléver Jiménez, Fernando Villavicencio and Carlos Figueroa, all three sentenced to imprisonment, emerged in the Sarayaku community (Pastaza) which granted them protection and asylum. The indigenous Sarayaku people gained some notoriety by successfully opposing oil drilling on their territory and by securing in 2012 a conviction by the Inter-American Court of Human Rights against the Ecuador government.

[Sir John Johns]

Also crucial for the MPD will be the election in parts of the canton of Muisne (Esmeraldas). Voting was stopped here on 23 February after violence broke out and destruction of electoral materials was reported. Muisne has a long story of political violence; in 2006, the voting (in presidential and legislative elections) was already stopped after Lucio Gutiérrez's partisans stole and burnt ballot boxes. Main economic activity in Muisne is agriculture, but the census data show a high number of “undeclared” professional activity which seems to indicate a strong informal/illegal sector. Mestizos are a majority in the canton, but there is a strong Afro-Ecuadorian minority.

Some 10,000 voters in Muisne voters will vote for both prefect and mayor. The vote will be decisive to determine who will be the next prefect of Esmeraldas. After all other cantons in Esmeraldas counted, Lucia Sosa (MPD) is leading Iván Hurtado (PAIS) by less than 2,500 votes. There is also a new mayoral election after allegations of fraud in favor of the PAIS candidate was raised. The local politics in Muisne looks like a huge mess. The MPD mayor Ángel Bernal, elected in 2009, defected to PAIS but was later removed from office by the PAIS-controled cantonal council in favor of Paúl Vélez (PAIS). This latter then left PAIS and escaped an attempt to remove him from office. So now, Bernal is running for SUMA and Vélez for Avanza while PAIS was plagued by a civil war over who would be acting mayor during Vélez's campaign. For his part, the PSP candidate was also accused of embezzlement.

Muisne Mayor-elect Walquer Vera (Alianza PAIS) has ben assassinated. He was shot six times by unknown assailants.


Predictably, the CNE proclaimed that the YASunidos failed to gather the 583.324 signatures required to force a consulta. Out of 599,103 signatures approved by the CNE in the first step, only 359.761 were definitely approved. 206.504 signatures were annulled because they have repeated several times, are counterfeit or belong to minors or to fictitious people. The YASunidos claim the CNE has committed fraud and has questioned the effective independence of the CNE (President of the CNE Domingo Paredes is a former Correa minister). For its parts, the CNE officials have threatened legal actions against the YASunidos.

A Perfiles de Opinión poll published last week indicated that 72.3% of Ecuadorians approve the organization of a referendum over oil drilling in the Yasuní. There is also increasing tension both in the Sarayaku region (where the government claims there are paramilitary groups to justify sending troops in order to capture Cléver Jiménez)) and in the Intag region (where mining projects are opposed by a part of the population).

[Sir John Johns]

Due to their poor results in the last local elections, the Ecuadorian Roldosist Party (PRE), the Institutional Renewal Party of National Action (PRIAN), the Democratic Popular Movement (MPD) and Ruptura are deregistered by the National Electoral Council. To keep their registrations the four would have to won at least 4% of the valid votes in two consecutive pluripersonal elections at the national level. The MPD and Ruptura (which didn't take part in the 2014 local elections) have already announced they will challenge the CNE's ruling before the courts. PRE leader Abdalá Bucaram has called his supporters to demonstrate in the streets and has announced he will try to reregistered his party. To be registered a party needs to gather signatures accounting for at least 1.5% of the electorate (175,000 signatures).

At the same time, Concertación, a centrist party whose views are very similar to that of SUMA, managed to be registered again. Jimmy Jairala is also trying to turn its local movement, Democratic Center, into a national party still in alliance with PAIS.

A constitutional amendment permitting unlimited reelection for any elective office will be soon submitted to the National Assembly. Correa has explicitly excluded any popular referendum on the subject because "we have rule of law not rule of opinion". The amendment has been heavily criticized notably by former president Alfredo Palacios and by various historical figures of PAIS now opposed to Correa. The opposition parties could try to gather the required signatures to force a referendum but it seems very unlikely it will work after the Yasuní referendum failure. A poll indicates however that a majority of Ecuadorians supported a referendum on reelection.

Other constitutional amendments could be adopted, notably, an amendment to lower the required age to be on a presidential ballot from 35 to 30 (widely seen as a mean to permit either National Assembly speaker Gabriela Rivadeneira either Secretary of Policy Management Viviana Bonilla to be elected vice-president the next election - both will have under 35 in 2017), an amendment to restrict the possibility for citizens to initiate a referendum and another one defining communication and information as a 'public service'.

Speaking of information, the newspaper Hoy stopped to publish a daily print version (it will be now a weekly print version and an Internet daily version). Hoy President claimed that the move was motivated by the permanent boycott of advertising, further restrictions on funding and above all by the infamous Communication Law. Correa rejected the claims and stated that the real reason is that the newspaper is mismanaged for years.