Can politicians still be "honest" with people when things aren't good and win?

[Skill and Chance]

I think in many ways Obama won in 2012 because he was being more honest with the middle class than Romney.  Obama was careful to present a long, hard slog on jobs and not to venture to close to happy days are here again territory.  Romney was promising the sun, moon and stars on the economy if only he were elected.  It was also a stroke of luck that there was just enough economic optimism in late 2012.  Romney would likely have won in either 2011 or 2013.

[Skill and Chance]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJClXb8vQpY

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I'd say no.

"When things aren't good"

Um no the economy was pretty good in 1984 with GDP growth at 7%.

That's what I meant. I was correcting the guy who posted the map. Things were good in 1984, so that's not a valid example.

The best example of an incumbent party under-performing the economy in modern times is 2000 hands down.  The best example of an incumbent over-performing the economy is probably 2012.