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bobloblaw
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« Reply #25 on: January 17, 2015, 04:16:27 PM »

Julian & Joaquin Castro
Any number of females (especially Gillibrand)
Probably some other latinos/latinas as well

The two have to actually get elected to something first. We've lowered the bar for them even lower than for Obama
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #26 on: January 17, 2015, 04:17:34 PM »

I'm thinking Warren and Cuomo would wind up being the domimant candidates for the Democratic nomination. With each respectively representing the populist and centrist wings of the party and the clash between those two wings being the driving force behind the primary.

After three consecutive terms of Democratic control of the White House, I would think the Republicans would finally not be concernced about idealogical purity and are focused purely on electable. Which helps establishment-friendly candidates like Christie (if he survives Bridgegahzi) and Walker. Perhaps the also try and nominatate a woman or minority. Giving a boost to Rubio, Ayotte, and Haley.

Warren in 2020 will be 71. The Dem party has a fixation with elderly candidates.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #27 on: January 17, 2015, 04:18:45 PM »


Huntsman will never be elected to anything ever again.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #28 on: January 17, 2015, 04:26:02 PM »

I'm thinking Warren and Cuomo would wind up being the domimant candidates for the Democratic nomination. With each respectively representing the populist and centrist wings of the party and the clash between those two wings being the driving force behind the primary.

After three consecutive terms of Democratic control of the White House, I would think the Republicans would finally not be concernced about idealogical purity and are focused purely on electable. Which helps establishment-friendly candidates like Christie (if he survives Bridgegahzi) and Walker. Perhaps the also try and nominatate a woman or minority. Giving a boost to Rubio, Ayotte, and Haley.

Warren in 2020 will be 71. The Dem party has a fixation with elderly candidates.

Yeah, just look at those old farts JFK, Carter, Clinton, and Obama. And those Republican spring chickens like Reagan, H.W. Bush, Dole, McCain, and Romney.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #29 on: January 18, 2015, 02:01:34 PM »

I'm thinking Warren and Cuomo would wind up being the domimant candidates for the Democratic nomination. With each respectively representing the populist and centrist wings of the party and the clash between those two wings being the driving force behind the primary.

After three consecutive terms of Democratic control of the White House, I would think the Republicans would finally not be concernced about idealogical purity and are focused purely on electable. Which helps establishment-friendly candidates like Christie (if he survives Bridgegahzi) and Walker. Perhaps the also try and nominatate a woman or minority. Giving a boost to Rubio, Ayotte, and Haley.

Warren in 2020 will be 71. The Dem party has a fixation with elderly candidates.

Yeah, just look at those old farts JFK, Carter, Clinton, and Obama. And those Republican spring chickens like Reagan, H.W. Bush, Dole, McCain, and Romney.

Well only one of those won over the age of 70 and GHW Bush was 64 when he won in 1988, 7 years younger than Warren would be in 2020.

Your party is full of old farts today. It is run by pre baby boombers where as the GOP is increasingly the Gen-X party.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #30 on: January 18, 2015, 11:00:19 PM »

I'm thinking Warren and Cuomo would wind up being the domimant candidates for the Democratic nomination. With each respectively representing the populist and centrist wings of the party and the clash between those two wings being the driving force behind the primary.

After three consecutive terms of Democratic control of the White House, I would think the Republicans would finally not be concernced about idealogical purity and are focused purely on electable. Which helps establishment-friendly candidates like Christie (if he survives Bridgegahzi) and Walker. Perhaps the also try and nominatate a woman or minority. Giving a boost to Rubio, Ayotte, and Haley.

Warren in 2020 will be 71. The Dem party has a fixation with elderly candidates.

Yeah, just look at those old farts JFK, Carter, Clinton, and Obama. And those Republican spring chickens like Reagan, H.W. Bush, Dole, McCain, and Romney.

Well only one of those won over the age of 70 and GHW Bush was 64 when he won in 1988, 7 years younger than Warren would be in 2020.

Your party is full of old farts today. It is run by pre baby boombers where as the GOP is increasingly the Gen-X party.

It's an empirical fact that the average Republican presidential nominee is older than the average Democratic presidential nominee.
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ChainsawJedis
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« Reply #31 on: February 22, 2015, 12:54:25 AM »

Would like to see:

2016: Clinton/Castro def Bush

2020: Clinton/Castro def Rubio

2024: Rand Paul def Castro

As for 2020, I think Rubio, Paul, and Tom Cotton to have good chances for the GOP. I can't see Christie having a chance in 2020 if he loses in the primaries next year.
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« Reply #32 on: February 22, 2015, 01:35:17 PM »

Democrats
Julian Castro
Cory Booker
Al Franken
Joseph Kennedy III
John Hickenlooper
Gavin Newsom
Antonio Villaraigosa
Ron Wyden
Chris Murphy

Republicans
Kelly Ayotte
Tom Cotton
Bobby Jindal
Rand Paul
Cory Gardner
Marco Rubio
Joni Ernst
Ted Cruz
Brian Sandoval
Charlie Baker

Libertarian
Justin Amash
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ChainsawJedis
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« Reply #33 on: February 22, 2015, 03:46:42 PM »

Democrats
Julian Castro
Cory Booker
Al Franken
Joseph Kennedy III
John Hickenlooper
Gavin Newsom
Antonio Villaraigosa
Ron Wyden
Chris Murphy

Republicans
Kelly Ayotte
Tom Cotton
Bobby Jindal
Rand Paul
Cory Gardner
Marco Rubio
Joni Ernst
Ted Cruz
Brian Sandoval
Charlie Baker

Libertarian
Justin Amash

I don't see any way Kennedy would be ready by 2020. He would be the youngest president ever elected and has very little national spotlight outside of his lay name. Only one president has been elected directly from the house. I could maybe see him for 2024 if Markey retires and he becomes senator in 2018. 2028 could work. By 2024 I assume Warren or Markey will be retired.
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vivaportugalhabs
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« Reply #34 on: February 22, 2015, 04:10:15 PM »

Democrats
Julian Castro
Cory Booker
Al Franken
Joseph Kennedy III
John Hickenlooper
Gavin Newsom
Antonio Villaraigosa
Ron Wyden
Chris Murphy

Republicans
Kelly Ayotte
Tom Cotton
Bobby Jindal
Rand Paul
Cory Gardner
Marco Rubio
Joni Ernst
Ted Cruz
Brian Sandoval
Charlie Baker

Libertarian
Justin Amash

I don't see any way Kennedy would be ready by 2020. He would be the youngest president ever elected and has very little national spotlight outside of his lay name. Only one president has been elected directly from the house. I could maybe see him for 2024 if Markey retires and he becomes senator in 2018. 2028 could work. By 2024 I assume Warren or Markey will be retired.

Yeah, I guess it was a bit of a stretch to put him on there for 2020. I'd like to see another Kennedy in the White House at some point!
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #35 on: February 22, 2015, 05:58:55 PM »

I'm thinking Warren and Cuomo would wind up being the domimant candidates for the Democratic nomination. With each respectively representing the populist and centrist wings of the party and the clash between those two wings being the driving force behind the primary.

After three consecutive terms of Democratic control of the White House, I would think the Republicans would finally not be concernced about idealogical purity and are focused purely on electable. Which helps establishment-friendly candidates like Christie (if he survives Bridgegahzi) and Walker. Perhaps the also try and nominatate a woman or minority. Giving a boost to Rubio, Ayotte, and Haley.

Warren in 2020 will be 71. The Dem party has a fixation with elderly candidates.

Yeah, just look at those old farts JFK, Carter, Clinton, and Obama. And those Republican spring chickens like Reagan, H.W. Bush, Dole, McCain, and Romney.

Well only one of those won over the age of 70 and GHW Bush was 64 when he won in 1988, 7 years younger than Warren would be in 2020.

Your party is full of old farts today. It is run by pre baby boombers where as the GOP is increasingly the Gen-X party.

It's an empirical fact that the average Republican presidential nominee is older than the average Democratic presidential nominee.
Things have changed. The top-polling Democrats are currently three elderly grandparents: Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren. Democrats are also overwhelmingly likely to nominate the last cycle's also-ran.

These reflect some changes in the party and society.

The party has become more amenable to letting people wait their turn now that women and African-Americans have risen in seniority. More women are getting significant careers later in life, with Janet Yellen as a prominent example, becoming Chair of the Federal Reserve at 67. Many of the elderly are healtheir than ever, with Ted Strickland considering a Senate bid at 75.

So when an Elizabeth Warren becomes Senator at 63, it's not necessarily the last step in her political career.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #36 on: February 23, 2015, 12:32:44 AM »

I'm thinking Warren and Cuomo would wind up being the domimant candidates for the Democratic nomination. With each respectively representing the populist and centrist wings of the party and the clash between those two wings being the driving force behind the primary.

After three consecutive terms of Democratic control of the White House, I would think the Republicans would finally not be concernced about idealogical purity and are focused purely on electable. Which helps establishment-friendly candidates like Christie (if he survives Bridgegahzi) and Walker. Perhaps the also try and nominatate a woman or minority. Giving a boost to Rubio, Ayotte, and Haley.

Warren in 2020 will be 71. The Dem party has a fixation with elderly candidates.

Yeah, just look at those old farts JFK, Carter, Clinton, and Obama. And those Republican spring chickens like Reagan, H.W. Bush, Dole, McCain, and Romney.

Well only one of those won over the age of 70 and GHW Bush was 64 when he won in 1988, 7 years younger than Warren would be in 2020.

Your party is full of old farts today. It is run by pre baby boombers where as the GOP is increasingly the Gen-X party.

It's an empirical fact that the average Republican presidential nominee is older than the average Democratic presidential nominee.
Things have changed. The top-polling Democrats are currently three elderly grandparents: Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren. Democrats are also overwhelmingly likely to nominate the last cycle's also-ran.

These reflect some changes in the party and society.

The party has become more amenable to letting people wait their turn now that women and African-Americans have risen in seniority. More women are getting significant careers later in life, with Janet Yellen as a prominent example, becoming Chair of the Federal Reserve at 67. Many of the elderly are healtheir than ever, with Ted Strickland considering a Senate bid at 75.

So when an Elizabeth Warren becomes Senator at 63, it's not necessarily the last step in her political career.

One election cycle isn't enough to reverse that trend. It's possible you might be correct, but there's not nearly enough evidence yet.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #37 on: September 21, 2015, 03:10:23 PM »

*bump*

My previous assumption was that with so many establishment friendly GOP candidates running this cycle, at least a couple of them would do OK even if they don’t actually win the nomination this time, enough to justify trying again in 2020, in the event of a 2016 Democratic victory.

Now, I’m starting to wonder if this crop of candidates is so terrible that few of them will actually try again in 2020.  Maybe I need to upgrade the chances of folks like Cotton, Haley, Pence, and Snyder.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #38 on: September 21, 2015, 04:49:03 PM »

If Democrats lose in 2016, I can see Dan Boren, the Governor of Oklahoma running in 2020. A Southerner. He would be likely to get support for a 2020 bid.
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Clark Kent
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« Reply #39 on: September 21, 2015, 04:57:02 PM »

If Rubio doesn't win the nomination this time around, I fully expect him to be the frontrunner come 2020.

Rand Paul and Scott Walker are also possibilities. Walker may have dropped out for now, but he's not that old, and can definitely run again in four years.
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #40 on: September 21, 2015, 05:01:07 PM »


That would be more hillarious than Chafee's current bid.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #41 on: September 21, 2015, 05:09:23 PM »


It would now, sure.  But I wrote that in February of last year, when Crist re-taking the Florida governorship didn't seem so outlandish.  Tongue
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #42 on: September 21, 2015, 08:30:20 PM »

I'm thinking Warren and Cuomo would wind up being the domimant candidates for the Democratic nomination. With each respectively representing the populist and centrist wings of the party and the clash between those two wings being the driving force behind the primary.

After three consecutive terms of Democratic control of the White House, I would think the Republicans would finally not be concernced about idealogical purity and are focused purely on electable. Which helps establishment-friendly candidates like Christie (if he survives Bridgegahzi) and Walker. Perhaps the also try and nominatate a woman or minority. Giving a boost to Rubio, Ayotte, and Haley.

Warren in 2020 will be 71. The Dem party has a fixation with elderly candidates.

Yeah, just look at those old farts JFK, Carter, Clinton, and Obama. And those Republican spring chickens like Reagan, H.W. Bush, Dole, McCain, and Romney.

Well only one of those won over the age of 70 and GHW Bush was 64 when he won in 1988, 7 years younger than Warren would be in 2020.

Your party is full of old farts today. It is run by pre baby boombers where as the GOP is increasingly the Gen-X party.

It's an empirical fact that the average Republican presidential nominee is older than the average Democratic presidential nominee.
Things have changed. The top-polling Democrats are currently three elderly grandparents: Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren. Democrats are also overwhelmingly likely to nominate the last cycle's also-ran.

These reflect some changes in the party and society.

The party has become more amenable to letting people wait their turn now that women and African-Americans have risen in seniority. More women are getting significant careers later in life, with Janet Yellen as a prominent example, becoming Chair of the Federal Reserve at 67. Many of the elderly are healtheir than ever, with Ted Strickland considering a Senate bid at 75.

So when an Elizabeth Warren becomes Senator at 63, it's not necessarily the last step in her political career.

One election cycle isn't enough to reverse that trend. It's possible you might be correct, but there's not nearly enough evidence yet.
The rise of Sanders adds some support.

The factors that make it possible for candidates to run when they're older aren't going to go away.
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Leinad
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« Reply #43 on: September 21, 2015, 08:56:30 PM »


Why does everyone like to put libertarian-leaning Republicans in the Libertarian Party? I seriously doubt a then 40-year-old Justin Amash would leave the party--thus basically giving up his job, the establishment would never let him stick around, they already can't stand him--just to get 0.5-1.0% in a general election.

Amash will probably be the next Republitarian guy after Rand's done. Whether that's 2020, 2024, 2028, or even 2032 I'm not sure, but I have a feeling he's next in line. Only 35 now (shares a birthday with me--which is awesome) so it's not like he'll be in any hurry.
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Figueira
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« Reply #44 on: September 21, 2015, 10:01:47 PM »

Remember that if there's a Republican President, that increases the chances that Heitkamp, Tester, and company will get re-elected. If that happens, then they could run for President.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #45 on: October 03, 2015, 01:24:04 AM »

My list of possible (favored) candidates:

Democratic:

- Gov. Gavin Newsom(CA)
- Gov. Mike Michaud(ME)
- Gov. Greg Stanton(AZ)
- Sen. Claire McCaskill(MO)
- Sen. Cory Booker(NJ)
- Sen. Catherine Masto(NV)
- Sen. Anthony Foxx(NC)
- Sen. Charlie Crist(FL)
- Rep. Anthony Brown(MD)
- Gov. Andrew Cuomo(NY)
- Sen. Elizabeth Warren(MA)
- Sen. Julian Castro(TX)
- Sen. Russ Feingold(WI)
- Rep. Keith Ellison(MN)


Republican:

- Gov. Marco Rubio(FL)
- Gov. Ryan Costello(PA)
- Gov. Kelly Fajardo(NM)
- Sen. John Kasich(OH)
- Sen. Cory Gardner(CO)
- Sen. Jeff Flake(AZ)
- Sen. Lisa Murkowski(AK)
- Sen. Sean Duffy(WI)
- Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers(WA)
- Gov. Mary Fallin(OK)
- Sen. Ted Cruz(TX)
- Sen. Joni Ernst(IA)
- Sen. Tim Scott(SC)
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Higgs
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« Reply #46 on: October 04, 2015, 12:00:54 AM »

My list of possible (favored) candidates:

Democratic:

- Gov. Gavin Newsom(CA)
- Gov. Mike Michaud(ME)
- Gov. Greg Stanton(AZ)
- Sen. Claire McCaskill(MO)
- Sen. Cory Booker(NJ)
- Sen. Catherine Masto(NV)
- Sen. Anthony Foxx(NC)
- Sen. Charlie Crist(FL)
- Rep. Anthony Brown(MD)
- Gov. Andrew Cuomo(NY)
- Sen. Elizabeth Warren(MA)
- Sen. Julian Castro(TX)
- Sen. Russ Feingold(WI)
- Rep. Keith Ellison(MN)


Republican:

- Gov. Marco Rubio(FL)
- Gov. Ryan Costello(PA)
- Gov. Kelly Fajardo(NM)
- Sen. John Kasich(OH)
- Sen. Cory Gardner(CO)
- Sen. Jeff Flake(AZ)
- Sen. Lisa Murkowski(AK)
- Sen. Sean Duffy(WI)
- Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers(WA)
- Gov. Mary Fallin(OK)
- Sen. Ted Cruz(TX)
- Sen. Joni Ernst(IA)
- Sen. Tim Scott(SC)


Do you actually think Charlie Crist will win a senatorial race?
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #47 on: October 04, 2015, 12:42:51 PM »

My list of possible (favored) candidates:

Democratic:

- Gov. Gavin Newsom(CA)
- Gov. Mike Michaud(ME)
- Gov. Greg Stanton(AZ)
- Sen. Claire McCaskill(MO)
- Sen. Cory Booker(NJ)
- Sen. Catherine Masto(NV)
- Sen. Anthony Foxx(NC)
- Sen. Charlie Crist(FL)
- Rep. Anthony Brown(MD)
- Gov. Andrew Cuomo(NY)
- Sen. Elizabeth Warren(MA)
- Sen. Julian Castro(TX)
- Sen. Russ Feingold(WI)
- Rep. Keith Ellison(MN)


Republican:

- Gov. Marco Rubio(FL)
- Gov. Ryan Costello(PA)
- Gov. Kelly Fajardo(NM)
- Sen. John Kasich(OH)
- Sen. Cory Gardner(CO)
- Sen. Jeff Flake(AZ)
- Sen. Lisa Murkowski(AK)
- Sen. Sean Duffy(WI)
- Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers(WA)
- Gov. Mary Fallin(OK)
- Sen. Ted Cruz(TX)
- Sen. Joni Ernst(IA)
- Sen. Tim Scott(SC)

Gavin Newsom might be able to run as a second-year Governor.

Mike Michaud probably wouldn't.

McCaskill's going to have to win reelection with a midterm electorate.

Foxx has declined to run for Senate in North Carolina in 2016. Thoms isn't up again until 2020.

A guy who lost a gubernatorial election isn't going to run for President as a second-term Congressman. Or if he does, it's not going to go well.

Even if Crist can win in 2018, I don't see Democrats picking hm as their candidate for national office.

Kelly Farjado is a newly elected state legislator in New Mexico.

Murkowski lost a primary, and has a reputation for being too moderate.

Mary Fallin hasn't really been considered a national figure even though she ostensibly has the resume.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #48 on: October 05, 2015, 06:15:30 PM »

My list of possible (favored) candidates:

Democratic:

- Gov. Gavin Newsom(CA)
- Gov. Mike Michaud(ME)
- Gov. Greg Stanton(AZ)
- Sen. Claire McCaskill(MO)
- Sen. Cory Booker(NJ)
- Sen. Catherine Masto(NV)
- Sen. Anthony Foxx(NC)
- Sen. Charlie Crist(FL)
- Rep. Anthony Brown(MD)
- Gov. Andrew Cuomo(NY)
- Sen. Elizabeth Warren(MA)
- Sen. Julian Castro(TX)
- Sen. Russ Feingold(WI)
- Rep. Keith Ellison(MN)


Republican:

- Gov. Marco Rubio(FL)
- Gov. Ryan Costello(PA)
- Gov. Kelly Fajardo(NM)
- Sen. John Kasich(OH)
- Sen. Cory Gardner(CO)
- Sen. Jeff Flake(AZ)
- Sen. Lisa Murkowski(AK)
- Sen. Sean Duffy(WI)
- Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers(WA)
- Gov. Mary Fallin(OK)
- Sen. Ted Cruz(TX)
- Sen. Joni Ernst(IA)
- Sen. Tim Scott(SC)

Gavin Newsom might be able to run as a second-year Governor.

Mike Michaud probably wouldn't.
Note: Possible
McCaskill's going to have to win reelection with a midterm electorate.
With a GOP President, presumably.
Foxx has declined to run for Senate in North Carolina in 2016. Thoms isn't up again until 2020.
So did Gillespie in 2017.
A guy who lost a gubernatorial election isn't going to run for President as a second-term Congressman. Or if he does, it's not going to go well.
.... Why do you think he's running for Congress two years after losing a Gubernatorial race? Presumably, he wants to create a broader profile, and as a minority he has a certain appeal.
Even if Crist can win in 2018, I don't see Democrats picking hm as their candidate for national office.
Joe Lieberman didn't have much of a shot, either.
Kelly Farjado is a newly elected state legislator in New Mexico.
Future Gov. Material. She's being talked about as the next Sec. of State for New Mexico.
Murkowski lost a primary, and has a reputation for being too moderate.
.... Which is why Lieberman wouldn't have ran in 2008 if it was viable.
Mary Fallin hasn't really been considered a national figure even though she ostensibly has the resume
She'd be a good keynote speaker or running-mate for Rubio or Bush or Paul.

Replies in bold.
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I support Sanders
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« Reply #49 on: October 11, 2015, 03:17:16 PM »

The answer is likely someone most of us haven't even heard [much] of. It will probably someone who is holding office at that time (in 2020). Chris Christie' term ends in 2018, and John Kasich's and Andrew Cuomo's ends in 2019. Unless Kasich is the Republican nominee in 2016, his career is likely over after 2019. O'Malley and Chafee have been out of office for a year, which I believe hurts their chances at receiving their Party's nominations this time around, making it even less likely that they will come back in 2020. It is only the establishment figures with massive war chests and name recognition, like Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney (both out of office since 2007), and Hillary Clinton (out of office since 2013) that really have a shot. Unless Cuomo or Kasich make headlines due to some unforeseen event in the next five years, it is unlikely either of them will be on the ticket. And the same goes for Senators like Rubio and Paul. If they aren't on their party's 2016 ticket, and don't win re-election in the Senate next year, they're both done. The pressure is on Cruz (assuming he's not on the GOP ticket next year) to win re-election in 2018. There are too many unforeseen events at the moment for me to make a comfortable prediction.
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