EG's State Senate Thread

[muon2]

What's the number of black-majority districts in the LA map?

[ElectionsGuy]

What's the number of black-majority districts in the LA map?

4 (1, 22, 29, 30).

[ElectionsGuy]

Kentucky:



7: 61.3% McCain, 37.1% Obama = Safe R
8: 61.3% McCain, 37.1% Obama (yes, 7 and 8 are exactly the same) = Safe R
9: 58.9% McCain, 40.0% Obama = Safe R
10: 62.1% McCain, 36.9% Obama = Safe R
11: 54.8% McCain, 43.4% Obama = Likely R
12: 53.7% McCain, 44.8% Obama = Likely R
13: 58.8% McCain, 39.6% Obama = Safe R
14: 57.8% McCain, 41.0% Obama = Safe R
15: 63.7% McCain, 34.7% Obama = Safe R
16: 68.8% McCain, 29.8% Obama = Safe R
17: 63.2% McCain, 35.4% Obama = Safe R
18: 63.7% McCain, 35.4% Obama = Safe R
19: 73.3% McCain, 25.2% Obama = Safe R
20: 77.6% McCain, 21.3% Obama = Safe R
21: 72.1% McCain, 26.4% Obama = Safe R
22: 62.1% McCain, 36.3% Obama = Safe R
23: 66.1% McCain, 32.6% Obama = Safe R
24: 71.8% McCain, 26.4% Obama = Safe R
25: 53.4% McCain, 44.2% Obama = Safe R
26: 64.3% McCain, 34.1% Obama = Safe R
30: 54.9% McCain, 43.2% Obama = Likely R
31: 58.9% McCain, 39.0% Obama = Safe R
32: 55.4% McCain, 43.3% Obama = Safe R
33: 55.2% McCain, 42.8% Obama = Safe R
34: 56.4% McCain, 42.0% Obama = Safe R
35: 63.4% McCain, 34.9% Obama = Safe R

Louisville Close-Up:



1: 89.0% Obama, 10.4% McCain = Safe D
2: 62.7% Obama, 36.0% McCain = Safe D
3: 51.5% McCain, 47.2% Obama = Lean R
4: 57.3% Obama, 41.5% McCain = Safe D
5: 49.7% McCain, 49.3% Obama = Toss-Up
6: 54.6% McCain, 44.5% Obama = Likely R

Lexington Close-Up:



27: 61.9% McCain, 36.9% Obama = Safe R
28: 63.1% Obama, 35.4% McCain = Safe D
29: 52.0% McCain, 46.7% Obama = Lean R

Cincinnati Suburbs Close-Up:



36: 63.2% McCain, 35.3% Obama = Safe R
37: 66.3% McCain, 32.3% Obama = Safe R
38: 54.1% McCain, 44.2% Obama = Likely R

33.5/38 = 88.2% R. The current makeup is 26-12 R.

I just want to clear something up, and that is of course my "ratings" won't come to great conclusions most of the time to accuracy of which party controls the chamber. This is mainly used to measure the two-party strength of the districts at the national level.

[ElectionsGuy]

Colorado:



1: 63.8% McCain, 34.7% Obama = Safe R
2: 50.5% Obama, 47.8% McCain = Toss-Up
8: 58.8% Obama, 39.3% McCain = Safe D
9: 53.0% McCain, 45.1% Obama = Likely R
10: 53.7% McCain, 44.5% Obama = Safe R
33: 66.3% McCain, 32.0% Obama = Safe R
35: 63.4% McCain, 34.9% Obama = Safe R

Pueblo Close-Up:



7: 59.1% Obama, 39.4% McCain = Safe D

Colorado Springs Close-Up:



3: 57.3% Obama, 40.9% McCain = Likely D
4: 60.4% McCain, 38.1% Obama = Safe R
5: 67.0% McCain, 31.9% Obama = Safe R
6: 57.2% McCain, 41.2% Obama = Safe R

Denver Close-Up:



14: 63.8% Obama, 34.5% McCain = Safe D
15: 55.6% Obama, 42.6% McCain = Lean D
16: 64.3% Obama, 33.5% McCain = Safe D
17: 56.8% Obama, 41.4% McCain = Likely D
20: 78.3% Obama, 20.4% McCain = Safe D
21: 82.9% Obama, 15.7% McCain = Safe D
22: 77.4% Obama, 20.9% McCain = Safe D
23: 68.3% Obama, 30.2% McCain = Safe D
24: 62.3% Obama, 35.8% McCain = Safe D
25: 67.7% Obama, 30.6% McCain = Safe D
26: 58.5% Obama, 39.8% McCain = Safe D
27: 60.7% Obama, 37.1% McCain = Safe D
28: 52.9% Obama, 45.3% McCain = Toss-Up
30: 50.2% McCain, 48.3% Obama = Lean R
31: 49.5% Obama, 49.4% McCain = Lean R
32: 55.4% McCain, 43.6% Obama = Safe R

Greater Denver/Northern Colorado:



11: 62.8% Obama, 35.4% McCain = Safe D
12: 52.1% McCain, 46.2% Obama = Likely R
13: 80.2% Obama, 18.4% McCain = Safe D
18: 50.9% McCain, 47.3% Obama = Lean R
19: 56.1% McCain, 41.8% Obama = Safe R
29: 52.5% Obama, 45.9% McCain = Toss-Up
34: 60.6% McCain, 38.1% Obama = Safe R

18.5/35 D = 52.9% D. The current makeup is 18-16 R.

[ElectionsGuy]

Alaska:



15: 49.5% McCain, 47.2% Obama = Lean D
18: 55.0% McCain, 42.4% Obama = Likely R
19: 69.6% McCain, 27.8% Obama = Safe R
20: 49.7% McCain, 47.1% Obama = Lean D

Anchorage Close-Up:



1: 56.4% Obama, 41.5% McCain = Safe D
2: 50.9% McCain, 47.3% Obama = Toss-Up
3: 55.0% McCain, 43.2% Obama = Likely R
4: 52.4% McCain, 45.6% Obama = Lean R
5: 59.4% McCain, 38.9% Obama = Safe R
6: 61.9% McCain, 36.5% Obama = Safe R
7: 61.1% McCain, 37.4% Obama = Safe R
8: 70.4% McCain, 28.1% Obama = Safe R

Anchorage Northern "Suburbs"



12: 70.2% McCain, 28.0% Obama = Safe R
13: 77.4% McCain, 20.8% Obama = Safe R

Fairbanks Close-Up:



16: 59.0% McCain, 38.9% Obama = Safe R
17: 75.0% McCain, 23.3% Obama = Safe R

Alaska Panhandle + Anchorage South:



9: 55.4% Obama, 41.7% McCain = Safe D
10: 54.2% McCain, 42.9% Obama = Likely R
11: 75.2% McCain, 22.5% Obama = Safe R
14: 57.8% McCain, 39.6% Obama = Safe R

15.5/20 = 77.5% R. Current makeup is 14-6 R.

[ElectionsGuy]

I put in numbers and ratings for Arkansas and Rhode Island and redid Alaska entirely.

[ElectionsGuy]

Southern Alabama:



5: 63.7% McCain, 35.7% Obama = Safe R
6: 72.4% McCain, 27.0% Obama = Safe R
7: 69.9% McCain, 29.6% Obama = Safe R
8: 63.0% McCain, 36.4% Obama = Safe R
11: 58.9% Obama, 40.6% McCain = Safe D
12: 71.3% Obama, 28.4% McCain = Safe D
13: 73.8% McCain, 25.6% Obama = Safe R
19: 58.6% McCain, 40.6% Obama = Safe R
21: 69.3% McCain, 29.8% Obama = Safe R
22: 73.6% McCain, 25.6% Obama = Safe R

Northern Alabama:



23: 74.6% McCain, 24.3% Obama = Safe R
24: 66.1% McCain, 32.9% Obama = Safe R
25: 73.5% McCain, 25.7% Obama = Safe R
26: 82.6% McCain, 16.5% Obama = Safe R
27: 70.2% McCain, 28.5% Obama = Safe R
28: 71.9% McCain, 26.8% Obama = Safe R
29: 80.8% McCain, 17.8% Obama = Safe R
30: 68.8% McCain, 29.8% Obama = Safe R
35: 62.6% McCain, 36.0% Obama = Safe R

Mobile Close-Up:



1: 78.3% Obama, 21.4% McCain = Safe D
2: 69.2% McCain, 30.1% Obama = Safe R
3: 77.3% McCain, 22.1% Obama = Safe R
4: 75.3% McCain, 23.9% Obama = Safe R

Montgomery Close-Up:



9: 77.7% Obama, 22.0% McCain = Safe D
10: 69.4% McCain, 30.1% Obama = Safe R

Birmingham/Tuscaloosa Close-Up:



14: 50.3% Obama, 49.0% McCain = Lean D
15: 78.0% Obama, 21.4% McCain = Safe D
16: 92.5% Obama, 7.3% McCain = Safe D
17: 69.9% McCain, 29.2% Obama = Safe R
18: 77.8% McCain, 21.4% Obama = Safe R
20: 62.3% McCain, 37.1% Obama = Safe R

Huntsville Close-Up:



31: 61.6% Obama, 37.5% McCain = Safe D
32: 74.7% McCain, 24.2% Obama = Safe R
33: 70.5% McCain, 28.6% Obama = Safe R
34: 65.0% McCain, 34.1% Obama = Safe R

27/35 = 77.1% R. The actual makeup is 26-8 R.

[ElectionsGuy]

West Virginia:



1: 49.6% Obama, 49.2% Mccain = Toss-Up
2: 62.5% McCain, 36.1% Obama = Safe R
3: 54.3% McCain, 44.1% Obama = Likely R
4: 50.4% Obama, 47.8% McCain = Toss-Up
5: 52.7% McCain, 45.7% Obama = Lean R
6: 61.3% McCain, 36.6% Obama = Safe R
7: 64.2% McCain, 34.3% Obama = Safe R
8: 62.4% McCain, 35.6% Obama = Safe R
11: 55.1% McCain, 42.8% Obama = Safe R
13: 59.3% McCain, 38.9% Obama = Safe R
14: 49.8% McCain, 48.3% Obama = Toss-Up
15: 60.7% McCain, 37.4% Obama = Safe R
16: 54.9% McCain, 43.0% Obama = Likely R
17: 54.5% McCain, 43.3% Obama = Likely R

Charleston/Huntington Close-Up:



9: 55.1% McCain, 43.4% Obama = Safe R
10: 54.0% Obama, 45.0% McCain = Likely D
12: 60.1% McCain, 38.8% Obama = Safe R

West Virginia is a little bit different. It elects two Senators per district, so there's actually just 17 districts (and 34 members). I was a little loose with the ratings, and I tried to adjust to the recent trends.

29/34 R = 85.3% R. The actual makeup is 18-16 R.

[ElectionsGuy]

South Carolina:



1: 59.0% McCain, 40.1% Obama = Safe R
2: 51.0% Obama, 48.0% McCain = Lean D
3: 59.9% Obama, 39.0% McCain = Safe D
4: 49.9% McCain, 49.0% Obama = Lean R
5: 57.3% McCain, 41.6% Obama = Safe R
8: 58.5% McCain, 40.2% Obama = Safe R
10: 56.7% McCain, 42.2% Obama = Safe R
12: 58.8% McCain, 40.0% Obama = Safe R
13: 54.7% McCain, 44.3% Obama = Safe R
14: 56.3% Obama, 42.5% McCain = Safe D
15: 68.1% Obama, 31.0% McCain = Safe D
16: 56.9% Obama, 42.4% McCain = Safe D
17: 59.2% Obama, 39.8% McCain = Safe D
18: 50.9% Obama, 48.3% McCain = Lean D
19: 55.0% Obama, 44.0% McCain = Likely D
25: 66.7% McCain, 32.0% Obama = Safe R
26: 60.0% McCain, 38.8% Obama = Safe R
27: 60.0% McCain, 39.0% Obama = Safe R
28: 57.3% McCain, 41.5% Obama = Safe R
29: 61.2% Obama, 38.0% McCain = Safe D
30: 60.2% McCain, 38.8% Obama = Safe R
31: 56.9% McCain, 41.9% Obama = Safe R
34: 61.8% McCain, 36.9% Obama = Safe R
36: 60.4% McCain, 38.3% Obama = Safe R
37: 67.8% McCain, 30.7% Obama = Safe R
40: 58.3% McCain, 40.4% Obama = Safe R

Charleston Close-Up:



6: 54.3% Obama, 44.2% McCain = Likely D
7: 73.7% Obama, 25.1% McCain = Safe D
9: 59.2% McCain, 39.6% Obama = Safe R

Myrtle Beach Close-Up:



11: 60.7% McCain, 37.9% Obama = Safe R

Columbia Close-Up:



20: 60.7% Obama, 38.4% McCain = Safe D
21: 77.8% Obama, 21.2% McCain = Safe D
22: 65.9% Obama, 33.3% McCain = Safe D
23: 65.6% McCain, 33.2% Obama = Safe R
24: 70.9% McCain, 28.1% Obama = Safe R

Rock Hill Close-Up:



32: 49.9% McCain, 48.8% Obama = Lean R
33: 63.6% McCain, 35.0% Obama = Safe R

Greenville/Spartanburg Close-Up:



35: 56.0% Obama, 42.3% McCain = Safe D
38: 71.0% McCain, 27.0% Obama = Safe R
39: 71.1% McCain, 27.4% Obama = Safe R
41: 60.6% McCain, 37.9% Obama = Safe R
42: 71.9% McCain, 26.1% Obama = Safe R
43: 66.5% McCain, 31.5% Obama = Safe R
44: 53.4% Obama, 45.3% McCain = Likely D
45: 67.1% McCain, 31.3% Obama = Safe R
46: 69.2% McCain, 29.2% Obama = Safe R

Districts 3, 15, 17, and 21 are majority black. Districts 7, 20, 22, and 29 are plurality black. 30/46 R = 65.2% R. The current makeup is 28-18 R.

[ElectionsGuy]

Minnesota:



40: 57.1% McCain, 40.3% Obama = Safe R
46: 55.1% Obama, 42.6% McCain = Likely D
47: 56.8% Obama, 40.5% McCain = Safe D
49: 49.6% Obama, 47.8% McCain = Toss-Up
50: 54.3% Obama, 43.1% McCain = Likely D
51: 53.3% McCain, 44.0% Obama = Likely R
52: 52.4% McCain, 45.0% Obama = Likely R
53: 51.7% McCain, 45.7% Obama = Likely R
54: 52.1% McCain, 45.3% Obama = Likely R
55: 49.4% Obama, 47.8% McCain = Toss-Up
56: 50.4% McCain, 47.3% Obama = Lean R
57: 57.4% Obama, 40.3% McCain = Likely D
59: 50.9% McCain, 46.0% Obama = Lean R
60: 55.2% McCain, 42.4% Obama = Safe R
61: 54.1% McCain, 43.4% Obama = Safe R
62: 54.2% McCain, 43.6% Obama = Safe R
63: 49.0% Obama, 48.6% McCain = Lean R
64: 63.6% Obama, 33.7% McCain = Safe D
65: 62.3% Obama, 35.7% McCain = Safe D
66: 49.5% McCain, 48.5% Obama = Lean R
67: 55.2% Obama, 42.2% McCain = Likely D

Minneapolis/St Paul Inner Close-Up:



1: 78.5% Obama, 19.8% McCain = Safe D
2: 84.6% Obama, 13.2% McCain = Safe D
3: 83.7% Obama, 14.1% McCain = Safe D
4: 80.2% Obama, 17.5% McCain = Safe D
5: 75.1% Obama, 22.7% McCain = Safe D
6: 74.2% Obama, 23.9% McCain = Safe D
7: 74.9% Obama, 23.0% McCain = Safe D
8: 79.3% Obama, 18.7% McCain = Safe D
9: 67.1% Obama, 30.7% McCain = Safe D
10: 59.6% Obama, 38.6% McCain = Safe D
11: 54.6% Obama, 43.4% McCain = Likely D
12: 62.0% Obama, 35.7% McCain = Safe D
13: 60.1% Obama, 38.3% McCain = Safe D
14: 64.0% Obama, 34.2% McCain = Safe D
15: 61.1% Obama, 36.9% McCain = Safe D
16: 58.6% Obama, 40.1% McCain = Safe D
17: 51.9% Obama, 46.6% McCain = Lean D
18: 57.7% Obama, 40.8% McCain = Likely D
19: 52.1% McCain, 46.4% Obama = Likely R
20: 51.2% Obama, 47.4% McCain = Toss-Up
21: 56.7% McCain, 41.6% Obama = Safe R
22: 50.0% Obama, 47.8% McCain = Toss-Up
23: 49.5% Obama, 48.5% McCain = Lean R
24: 49.5% Obama, 48.8% McCain = Lean R
25: 53.0% Obama, 45.1% McCain = Lean D
26: 52.8% Obama, 45.5% McCain = Lean D
27: 58.1% Obama, 39.6% McCain = Safe D
28: 53.6% Obama, 44.6% McCain = Lean D
29: 52.9% Obama, 45.4% McCain = Lean D
30: 50.5% Obama, 47.6% McCain = Toss-Up
32: 52.0% McCain, 46.4% Obama = Likely R
36: 56.9% McCain, 41.2% Obama = Safe R

Minneapolis/St Paul Outer Close-Up:



31: 54.0% McCain, 44.3% Obama = Likely R
33: 57.3% McCain, 40.9% Obama = Safe R
34: 58.1% McCain, 39.9% Obama = Safe R
35: 56.4% McCain, 41.1% Obama = Safe R
37: 53.9% McCain, 44.1% Obama = Likely R
38: 58.6% McCain, 39.5% Obama = Safe R
39: 50.1% Obama, 47.6% McCain = Toss-Up
41: 55.0% McCain, 42.4% Obama = Safe R
42: 57.5% McCain, 40.1% Obama = Safe R
45: 55.9% Obama, 41.9% McCain = Likely D
48: 52.2% McCain, 45.3% Obama = Likely R

Rochester Close-Up:



43: 54.3% Obama, 43.6% McCain = Likely D
44: 52.1% McCain, 45.7% Obama = Likely R

Duluth Close-Up:



58: 68.5% Obama, 29.4% McCain = Safe D

36/67 = 53.7% D. The current makeup is 39-28. Minnesota (and Iowa) always surprises me with how many areas it has where its pretty evenly divided. Only the urban core of Minneapolis and Duluth are very lopsidedly D, and only the exurbs are lopsidedly R. Everything else tends to be between 50-55 for either party. Its certainly less polarized than Wisconsin, and the Minneapolis area is much less segregated than the Milwaukee area with having a similar % of minorities.

[ElectionsGuy]

Southern Wisconsin:



10: 61.6% McCain, 37.2% Obama = Safe R
12: 49.7% Obama, 48.8% McCain = Likely R
13: 56.9% McCain, 41.6% Obama = Safe R
19: 64.1% Obama, 34.3% McCain = Safe D
23: 62.0% Obama, 36.6% McCain = Safe D
24: 59.8% Obama, 38.6% McCain = Likely D
25: 54.4% Obama, 43.9% McCain = Toss-Up

Milwaukee Close-Up:



1: 67.1% Obama, 31.3% McCain = Safe D
2: 51.6% McCain, 47.0% Obama  = Safe R
3: 73.6% Obama, 25.1% McCain = Safe D
4: 82.6% Obama, 16.6% McCain = Safe D
5: 84.1% Obama, 15.0% McCain = Safe D
6: 59.7% Obama, 38.6% McCain = Safe D
7: 52.7% McCain, 46.0% Obama = Safe R
8: 52.2% McCain, 46.5% Obama = Safe R
9: 59.6% McCain, 39.3% Obama = Safe R
11: 65.9% McCain, 33.0% Obama = Safe R

Madison Close-Up:



20: 81.1% Obama, 17.3% McCain = Safe D
21: 71.1% Obama, 27.6% McCain = Safe D
22: 62.6% Obama, 36.2% McCain = Safe D

Fox River Valley Close-Up:



14: 49.8% McCain, 48.8% Obama = Likely R
15: 54.6% Obama, 43.6% McCain = Toss-Up
16: 54.8% Obama, 43.6% McCain = Toss-Up
17: 53.2% Obama, 45.2% McCain = Lean R
18: 56.9% Obama, 41.7% McCain = Lean D

Northern Wisconsin:



26: 57.9% Obama, 40.2% McCain = Lean D
27: 49.8% Obama, 48.8% McCain = Likely R
28: 59.8% Obama, 38.6% McCain = Likely D
29: 49.1% Obama, 48.9% McCain = Likely R
30: 53.3% Obama, 44.8% McCain = Lean R
31: 52.3% Obama, 46.1% McCain = Lean R
32: 53.8% Obama, 44.5% McCain = Lean R
33: 59.2% Obama, 39.2% McCain = Likely D

16.5/33 = 50% D. The current makeup is 19-14 R. 2008 numbers here are next to useless.

[ElectionsGuy]

Maryland:



1 (everything west of 2): 64.8% McCain, 33.4% Obama = Safe R
2: 53.7% McCain, 44.8% Obama = Likely R
3: 56.9% Obama, 41.7% McCain = Safe D
4: 58.9% McCain, 39.5% Obama = Safe R
11: 54.8% Obama, 44.0% McCain = Likely D
12: 65.6% Obama, 33.2% McCain = Safe D
19: 87.0% Obama, 12.5% McCain = Safe D
20: 62.6% Obama, 36.6% McCain = Safe D
27: 55.2% McCain, 43.5% Obama = Safe R
28: 53.9% McCain, 44.8% Obama = Likely R
34: 65.3% McCain, 32.9% Obama = Safe R
37: 50.8% McCain, 47.5% Obama = Lean R
41: 55.6% McCain, 42.6% Obama = Safe R
42: 66.2% McCain, 31.9% Obama = Safe R
43: 53.6% McCain, 44.6% Obama = Likely R
44: 58.8% McCain, 39.7% Obama = Safe R
45: 54.5% McCain, 44.3% Obama = Likely R
46: 53.1% McCain, 45.7% Obama = Likely R

Washington Suburbs Close-Up:



5: 82.8% Obama, 16.1% McCain = Safe D
6: 72.6% Obama, 26.5% McCain = Safe D
7: 76.7% Obama, 22.2% McCain = Safe D
8: 70.2% Obama, 28.6% McCain = Safe D
9: 72.8% Obama, 26.3% McCain = Safe D
10: 71.0% Obama, 27.8% McCain = Safe D
13: 88.6% Obama, 10.4% McCain = Safe D
14: 77.5% Obama, 21.2% McCain = Safe D
15: 79.2% Obama, 19.9% McCain = Safe D
16: 97.1% Obama, 2.5% McCain = Safe D
17: 93.4% Obama, 6.3% McCain = Safe D
18: 95.2% Obama, 4.5% McCain = Safe D

Baltimore Close-Up:



22: 76.4% Obama, 22.1% McCain = Safe D
23: 96.4% Obama, 3.0% McCain = Safe D
24: 83.9% Obama, 15.2% McCain = Safe D
25: 86.4% Obama, 12.6% McCain = Safe D
26: 90.7% Obama, 8.5% McCain = Safe D
33: 49.5% Obama, 48.5% McCain = Toss-Up
35: 68.3% Obama, 30.4% McCain = Safe D
36: 81.4% Obama, 17.9% McCain = Safe D
38: 52.5% Obama, 45.7% McCain = Lean D
39: 53.1% McCain, 44.7% Obama = Likely R
40: 50.2% McCain, 47.9% Obama = Lean R

Central Maryland Close-Up:



21: 69.4% Obama, 29.2% McCain = Safe D
29: 52.4% Obama, 46.2% McCain = Lean D
30: 64.5% Obama, 34.3% McCain = Safe D
31: 52.9% McCain, 45.6% Obama = Likely R
32: 57.9% McCain, 40.2% Obama = Safe R

28.5/46 = 62.0% D. The current makeup is 32-14 D.

[ElectionsGuy]

Southern Missouri:



20: 53.8% Obama, 44.6% McCain = Toss-Up
22: 56.7% McCain, 41.7% Obama = Safe R
23: 60.3% McCain, 38.3% Obama = Safe R
24: 60.3% McCain, 38.3% Obama = Safe R
27: 67.1% McCain, 31.6% Obama = Safe R
28: 67.6% McCain, 30.9% Obama = Safe R
29: 62.9% McCain, 35.8% Obama = Safe R
30: 62.4% McCain, 36.0% Obama = Safe R
31: 64.7% McCain, 33.9% Obama = Safe R
32: 64.7% McCain, 33.3% Obama = Safe R
33: 55.6% McCain, 42.3% Obama = Safe R
34: 61.9% McCain, 36.8% Obama = Safe R

Northern Missouri:



17: 50.7% McCain, 47.7% Obama = Likely R
18: 58.0% McCain, 40.1% Obama = Safe R
19: 58.4% McCain, 39.6% Obama = Safe R
21: 56.8% McCain, 41.6% Obama = Safe R

St Louis Close-Up:



1: 74.8% Obama, 24.0% McCain = Safe D
2: 94.3% Obama, 5.4% McCain = Safe D
3: 78.0% Obama, 21.1% McCain = Safe D
4: 75.5% Obama, 23.4% McCain = Safe D
5: 58.9% Obama, 40.0% McCain = Likely D
6: 51.4% McCain, 47.7% Obama = Likely R
7: 57.4% McCain, 41.8% Obama = Safe R
8: 51.6% McCain, 47.4% Obama = Likely R
9: 49.8% Obama, 48.7% McCain = Likely R
10: 52.0% McCain, 47.0% Obama = Safe R
11: 56.5% McCain, 42.6% Obama = Safe R

Kansas City Close-Up:



12: 69.8% Obama, 29.3% McCain = Safe D
13: 83.9% Obama, 15.3% McCain = Safe D
14: 50.0% McCain, 48.4% Obama = Likely R
15: 55.5% McCain, 43.4% Obama = Safe R
16: 51.0% Obama, 47.8% McCain = Lean R

Springfield Close-Up:



25: 52.2% McCain, 46.3% Obama = Likely R
26: 66.3% McCain, 32.6% Obama = Safe R

26.5/34 = 77.9% R. The current makeup is 25-9 R.

[ElectionsGuy]

Massachusetts:



2: 57.2% Obama, 40.5% McCain = Likely D
3: 74.0% Obama, 23.7% McCain = Safe D
4: 75.3% Obama, 22.5% McCain = Safe D
5: 55.6% Obama, 42.1% McCain = Likely D
6: 54.2% Obama, 43.5% McCain = Lean D
7: 51.2% Obama, 46.5% McCain = Toss-Up
9: 54.4% Obama, 43.6% McCain = Lean D
20: 56.0% Obama, 42.2% McCain = Likely D
21: 59.3% Obama, 39.0% McCain = Safe D
25: 52.6% Obama, 45.6% McCain = Lean D
28: 56.3% Obama, 41.9% McCain = Likely D
33: 70.5% Obama, 27.9% McCain = Safe D
34: 56.2% Obama, 42.3% McCain = Likely D
35: 54.0% Obama, 44.4% McCain = Lean D
36: 64.6% Obama, 33.4% McCain = Safe D
37: 53.0% Obama, 45.2% McCain = Lean D
38: 51.2% Obama, 47.0% McCain = Toss-Up

Boston Inner Close-Up:



10: 80.9% Obama, 18.0% McCain = Safe D
11: 86.9% Obama, 12.1% McCain = Safe D
12: 80.6% Obama, 17.6% McCain = Safe D
13: 70.5% Obama, 28.2% McCain = Safe D
14: 85.9% Obama, 12.2% McCain = Safe D
15: 73.5% Obama, 25.0% McCain = Safe D
16: 70.0% Obama, 28.2% McCain = Safe D
17: 65.2% Obama, 32.9% McCain = Safe D
18: 56.8% Obama, 41.6% McCain = Likely D
22: 64.1% Obama, 34.0% McCain = Safe D

Boston Outer Close-Up:



19: 62.9% Obama, 35.6% McCain = Safe D
23: 52.8% Obama, 45.7% McCain = Lean D
24: 57.6% Obama, 40.7% McCain = Likely D
26: 66.8% Obama, 31.5% McCain = Safe D
27: 64.4% Obama, 34.0% McCain = Safe D
29: 53.0% Obama, 45.2% McCain = Lean D
30: 57.9% Obama, 40.7% McCain = Likely D
31: 59.8% Obama, 38.7% McCain = Safe D
32: 55.6% Obama, 42.7% McCain = Likely D
39: 59.7% Obama, 38.7% McCain = Safe D
40: 50.6% Obama, 48.0% McCain = Toss-Up

Springfield/Worcester:



1: 75.7% Obama, 22.8% McCain = Safe D
8: 68.1% Obama, 29.9% McCain = Safe D

38.5/40 = 96.3% D. The current makeup is 34-6 D.

[ElectionsGuy]

Tennessee:



1: 70.5% McCain, 28.1% Obama = Safe R
2: 67.7% McCain, 30.8% Obama = Safe R
4: 69.5% McCain, 28.9% Obama = Safe R
5: 72.0% McCain, 26.6% Obama = Safe R
8: 70.5% McCain, 28.1% Obama = Safe R
9: 68.5% McCain, 30.1% Obama = Safe R
10: 69.4% McCain, 28.9% Obama = Safe R
12: 69.0% McCain, 29.4% Obama = Safe R
20: 62.9% McCain, 35.2% Obama = Safe R
21: 60.7% McCain, 37.4% Obama = Safe R
23: 63.7% McCain, 34.6% Obama = Safe R
29: 54.3% McCain, 44.8% Obama = Likely R
30: 65.0% McCain, 33.8% Obama = Safe R
31: 61.1% McCain, 37.4% Obama = Safe R
32: 64.1% McCain, 34.2% Obama = Safe R
33: 60.0% McCain, 38.3% Obama = Safe R

Memphis Close-Up:



24: 82.1% Obama, 17.3% McCain = Safe D
25: 93.2% Obama, 6.3% McCain = Safe D
26: 62.5% McCain, 36.8% Obama = Safe R
27: 73.5% Obama, 26.1% McCain = Safe D
28: 69.4% McCain, 29.8% Obama = Safe R

Nashville Close-Up:



13: 61.1% Obama, 37.7% McCain = Safe D
14: 77.7% Obama, 21.0% McCain = Safe D
15: 51.7% McCain, 47.2% Obama = Likely R
16: 55.4% McCain, 43.4% Obama = Safe R
17: 66.5% McCain, 32.3% Obama = Safe R
18: 63.3% McCain, 35.5% Obama = Safe R
19: 55.9% McCain, 42.8% Obama = Safe R
22: 69.1% McCain, 29.9% Obama = Safe R

Chattanooga Close-Up:



6: 55.8% Obama, 43.2% McCain = Likely D
7: 68.9% McCain, 30.0% Obama = Safe R

Knoxville Close-Up:



3: 50.9% Obama, 47.4% McCain = Toss-Up
11: 67.7% McCain, 30.8% Obama = Safe R

26.5/33 = 80.3% R. The current makeup is 27-6 R.

[ElectionsGuy]

Northern Indiana:



10: 61.2% McCain, 37.8% Obama = Safe R
13: 57.6% McCain, 41.3% Obama = Safe R
14: 60.8% McCain, 38.3% Obama = Safe R
16: 54.5% McCain, 43.8% Obama = Safe R
17: 62.6% McCain, 36.1% Obama = Safe R
18: 56.2% Obama, 42.5% McCain = Toss-Up
19: 52.5% McCain, 46.1% Obama = Safe R
20: 60.4% McCain, 38.3% Obama = Safe R
21: 56.9% McCain, 41.9% Obama = Safe R
22: 51.6% Obama, 47.2% McCain = Lean R
35: 55.8% McCain, 42.7% Obama = Safe R
36: 60.4% McCain, 38.5% Obama = Safe R
37: 50.6% McCain, 47.7% Obama = Safe R

Southern Indiana:



34: 56.6% Obama, 42.1% McCain = Toss-Up
38: 63.5% McCain, 35.1% Obama = Safe R
39: 61.0% McCain, 37.7% Obama = Safe R
40: 61.0% McCain, 37.7% Obama = Safe R
41: 66.6% Obama, 32.5% McCain = Safe D
42: 55.5% McCain, 43.1% Obama = Safe R
45: 56.0% McCain, 43.0% Obama = Safe R
46: 57.0% McCain, 41.6% Obama = Safe R
47: 53.6% McCain, 45.1% Obama = Safe R
48: 54.7% McCain, 43.8% Obama = Safe R
49: 57.9% McCain, 40.5% Obama = Safe R
50: 54.3% McCain, 44.3% Obama = Safe R

Northwestern Close-Up:



1: 80.1% Obama, 19.1% McCain = Safe D
2: 83.6% Obama, 15.8% McCain = Safe D
3: 51.0% Obama, 48.3% McCain = Toss-Up
4: 50.7% Obama, 48.4% McCain = Toss-Up
5: 55.0% Obama, 44.0% McCain = Lean D
6: 58.8% Obama, 39.8% McCain = Likely D
7: 69.1% Obama, 30.0% McCain = Safe D
8: 50.2% McCain, 48.9% Obama = Safe R
9: 53.0% McCain, 46.1% Obama = Safe R

Indianapolis Close-Up:



23: 55.1% McCain, 43.9% Obama = Safe R
24: 49.6% McCain, 49.4% Obama = Lean R
25: 69.6% Obama, 29.3% McCain = Safe D
26: 66.5% Obama, 32.8% McCain = Safe D
27: 87.1% Obama, 12.4% McCain = Safe D
28: 71.7% Obama, 27.6% McCain = Safe D
29: 55.3% Obama, 44.0% McCain = Lean D
30: 59.9% McCain, 39.5% Obama = Safe R
31: 61.3% McCain, 38.0% Obama = Safe R
32: 60.4% McCain, 38.7% Obama = Safe R
33: 62.2% McCain, 36.9% Obama = Safe R

Fort Wayne Close-Up:



11: 66.6% Obama, 32.5% McCain = Safe D
12: 59.6% McCain, 39.7% Obama = Safe R

Lafayette Close-Up:



15: 58.5% Obama, 40.5% McCain = Lean D

Evansville/Louisville Suburbs:



43: 56.0% Obama, 43.0% McCain = Toss-Up
44: 50.4% McCain, 48.7% Obama = Safe R

34.5/50 = 69.0% R. The current makeup is 40-10 R (seriously, how do the Dems only have 10 here?)

[ElectionsGuy]

Arizona:



1: 65.4% McCain, 33.0% Obama = Safe R
2: 66.4% Obama, 32.4% McCain = Safe D
3: 57.0% McCain, 41.9% Obama = Safe R
4: 61.0% McCain, 37.5% Obama = Safe R
5: 67.0% McCain, 31.7% Obama = Safe R

Phoenix Close-Up:



6: 69.6% Obama, 29.4% McCain = Safe D
7: 62.6% Obama, 36.3% McCain = Safe D
8: 64.2% Obama, 34.4% McCain = Safe D
9: 55.4% Obama, 43.2% McCain = Safe D
10: 52.9% McCain, 46.1% Obama = Likely R
11: 58.9% McCain, 40.1% Obama = Safe R
12: 64.6% McCain, 34.5% Obama = Safe R
13: 55.6% McCain, 42.9% Obama = Safe R
14: 63.4% McCain, 35.3% Obama = Safe R
15: 56.5% McCain, 42.6% Obama = Safe R
16: 50.6% McCain, 48.2% Obama = Lean R
17: 56.2% McCain, 42.6% Obama = Safe R
18: 57.4% McCain, 41.3% Obama = Safe R
19: 66.2% McCain, 32.8% Obama = Safe R
20: 55.3% McCain, 43.6% Obama = Safe R
21: 59.3% McCain, 39.6% Obama = Safe R
22: 59.7% McCain, 39.3% Obama = Safe R
23: 49.7% McCain, 49.3% Obama = Toss-Up

Tucson Close-Up:



25: 73.7% Obama, 25.0% McCain = Safe D
26: 53.1% McCain, 45.9% Obama = Likely R
29: 58.0% Obama, 40.6% McCain = Safe D

Southern Arizona:



24: 58.2% McCain, 40.7% Obama = Safe R
27: 55.0% Obama, 43.8% McCain = Safe D
28: 56.2% McCain, 42.7% Obama = Safe R
30: 59.0% McCain, 39.6% Obama = Safe R

21.5/30 = 71.7% R. The current makeup is 17-13 R.

[Skill and Chance]

Northern Indiana:



10: 61.2% McCain, 37.8% Obama = Safe R
13: 57.6% McCain, 41.3% Obama = Safe R
14: 60.8% McCain, 38.3% Obama = Safe R
16: 54.5% McCain, 43.8% Obama = Safe R
17: 62.6% McCain, 36.1% Obama = Safe R
18: 56.2% Obama, 42.5% McCain = Toss-Up
19: 52.5% McCain, 46.1% Obama = Safe R
20: 60.4% McCain, 38.3% Obama = Safe R
21: 56.9% McCain, 41.9% Obama = Safe R
22: 51.6% Obama, 47.2% McCain = Lean R
35: 55.8% McCain, 42.7% Obama = Safe R
36: 60.4% McCain, 38.5% Obama = Safe R
37: 50.6% McCain, 47.7% Obama = Safe R

Southern Indiana:



34: 56.6% Obama, 42.1% McCain = Toss-Up
38: 63.5% McCain, 35.1% Obama = Safe R
39: 61.0% McCain, 37.7% Obama = Safe R
40: 61.0% McCain, 37.7% Obama = Safe R
41: 66.6% Obama, 32.5% McCain = Safe D
42: 55.5% McCain, 43.1% Obama = Safe R
45: 56.0% McCain, 43.0% Obama = Safe R
46: 57.0% McCain, 41.6% Obama = Safe R
47: 53.6% McCain, 45.1% Obama = Safe R
48: 54.7% McCain, 43.8% Obama = Safe R
50: 54.3% McCain, 44.3% Obama = Safe R

Northwestern Close-Up:



1: 80.1% Obama, 19.1% McCain = Safe D
2: 83.6% Obama, 15.8% McCain = Safe D
3: 51.0% Obama, 48.3% McCain = Toss-Up
4: 50.7% Obama, 48.4% McCain = Toss-Up
5: 55.0% Obama, 44.0% McCain = Lean D
6: 58.8% Obama, 39.8% McCain = Likely D
7: 69.1% Obama, 30.0% McCain = Safe D
8: 50.2% McCain, 48.9% Obama = Safe R
9: 53.0% McCain, 46.1% Obama = Safe R

Indianapolis Close-Up:



23: 55.1% McCain, 43.9% Obama = Safe R
24: 49.6% McCain, 49.4% Obama = Lean R
25: 69.6% Obama, 29.3% McCain = Safe D
26: 66.5% Obama, 32.8% McCain = Safe D
27: 87.1% Obama, 12.4% McCain = Safe D
28: 71.7% Obama, 27.6% McCain = Safe D
29: 55.3% Obama, 44.0% McCain = Lean D
30: 59.9% McCain, 39.5% Obama = Safe R
31: 61.3% McCain, 38.0% Obama = Safe R
32: 60.4% McCain, 38.7% Obama = Safe R
33: 62.2% McCain, 36.9% Obama = Safe R

Fort Wayne Close-Up:



11: 66.6% Obama, 32.5% McCain = Safe D
12: 59.6% McCain, 39.7% Obama = Safe R

Lafayette Close-Up:



15: 58.5% Obama, 40.5% McCain = Lean D

Evansville/Louisville Suburbs:



43: 56.0% Obama, 43.0% McCain = Toss-Up
44: 50.4% McCain, 48.7% Obama = Safe R

34.5/50 = 69.0% R. The current makeup is 40-10 R (seriously, how do the Dems only have 10 here?)

Because of 2008 as a baseline.  That was once in a lifetime in Indiana.  A 53% Obama 2008 district in IN likely still voted straight-ticket R for everything else in the past 20 years.

[ElectionsGuy]

Because of 2008 as a baseline.  That was once in a lifetime in Indiana.  A 53% Obama 2008 district in IN likely still voted straight-ticket R for everything else in the past 20 years.

I adjusted for the over performance and payed close attention the swings of 2008/2012, and took into account the urban/rural divide, and still I got at least 13 or 14 districts the D's should be able to win. I counted up the Safe D districts, and I got 9. So, its probably a combination of gerrymandering and Dems only winning their core areas.

Connecticut:



6: 52.9% Obama, 46.5% McCain = Lean R
14: 49.6% McCain, 49.4% Obama = Safe R
18: 51.5% Obama, 46.9% McCain = Lean R
19: 52.8% Obama, 45.3% McCain = Lean R
29: 61.1% Obama, 37.5% McCain = Safe D
31: 64.6% Obama, 34.3% McCain = Safe D
32: 57.6% Obama, 41.2% McCain = Likely D
33: 57.2% Obama, 41.4% McCain = Likely D
34: 58.4% Obama, 49.2% McCain = Likely D
35: 64.5% Obama, 33.8% McCain = Safe D
36: 53.3% Obama, 44.8% McCain = Toss-Up

Bridgeport/New Haven Close-Up:



1: 54.2% Obama, 45.2% McCain = Toss-Up
2: 65.4% Obama, 34.0% McCain = Safe D
3: 63.6% Obama, 35.8% McCain = Safe D
4: 60.9% Obama, 38.4% McCain = Safe D
5: 89.3% Obama, 10.4% McCain = Safe D
7: 58.9% Obama, 40.2% McCain = Likely D
9: 55.3% Obama, 43.4% McCain = Lean D
10: 87.0% Obama, 12.2% McCain = Safe D

Hartford Close-Up:



21: 58.2% Obama, 40.4% McCain = Likely D
22: 67.4% Obama, 31.4% McCain = Safe D
24: 89.7% Obama, 9.7% McCain = Safe D
25: 68.1% Obama, 30.7% McCain = Safe D
26: 69.4% Obama, 29.3% McCain = Safe D
27: 73.5% Obama, 25.7% McCain = Safe D
30: 58.5% Obama, 40.1% McCain = Likely D

Southwestern Connecticut:



8: 55.5% Obama, 43.6% McCain = Lean D
11: 77.8% Obama, 21.4% McCain = Safe D
12: 50.2% McCain, 48.7% Obama = Safe R
13: 64.5% Obama, 34.0% McCain = Safe D
15: 51.3% Obama, 47.2% McCain = Likely R
16: 57.8% Obama, 41.0% McCain = Likely D
17: 56.3% Obama, 42.5% McCain = Lean D
20: 50.8% Obama, 47.9% McCain = Likely R
23: 63.6% Obama, 35.1% McCain = Safe D
28: 59.4% Obama, 39.1% McCain = Safe D

I delayed this one for awhile due to many deviation issues. Anyway, its 29/36 = 80.6% D. The current makeup is 21-15 D.

[ElectionsGuy]

Washington:



5: 55.2% McCain, 42.5% Obama = Safe R
8: 56.4% McCain, 40.6% Obama = Safe R
9: 52.9% McCain, 45.2% Obama = Likely R
10: 62.0% McCain, 35.9% Obama = Safe R
11: 54.8% McCain, 43.4% Obama = Safe R
15: 52.2% Obama, 45.4% McCain = Lean D
33: 55.7% Obama, 42.1% McCain = Likely D
48: 56.8% Obama, 41.1% McCain = Likely D
49: 53.6% McCain, 44.1% Obama = Safe R

Spokane Close-Up:



1: 60.1% Obama, 37.2% McCain = Safe D
2: 54.3% McCain, 43.1% Obama = Safe R
3: 52.1% McCain, 45.8% Obama = Likely R

Kennewick/Pasco Close-Up:



4: 61.5% McCain, 36.8% Obama = Safe R
6: 58.6% McCain, 39.7% Obama = Safe R

Yakima Close-Up:



7: 55.9% McCain, 42.3% Obama = Safe R

Vancouver Close-Up:



12: 59.3% Obama, 38.9% McCain = Safe D
13: 49.6% McCain, 48.8% Obama = Lean R
14: 50.6% Obama, 47.8% McCain = Toss-Up

Northern Washington:



16: 66.8% Obama, 31.3% McCain = Safe D
17: 51.8% McCain, 46.1% Obama = Likely R
24: 55.2% Obama, 43.1% McCain = Likely D
25: 52.4% Obama, 45.4% McCain = Lean D

Seattle Inner Close-Up:



18: 70.0% Obama, 28.4% McCain = Safe D
19: 84.0% Obama, 14.6% McCain = Safe D
20: 84.0% Obama, 14.4% McCain = Safe D
21: 88.2% Obama, 10.3% McCain = Safe D
22: 82.1% Obama, 16.4% McCain = Safe D
23: 78.7% Obama, 19.8% McCain = Safe D
30: 64.2% Obama, 34.5% McCain = Safe D
31: 64.4% Obama, 34.0% McCain = Safe D
35: 64.8% Obama, 33.8% McCain = Safe D
36: 58.6% Obama, 39.9% McCain = Safe D
37: 66.3% Obama, 32.0% McCain = Safe D

Seattle Outer Close-Up:



26: 52.7% Obama, 45.1% McCain = Lean D
27: 62.1% Obama, 35.6% McCain = Safe D
28: 63.8% Obama, 34.6% McCain = Safe D
29: 60.2% Obama, 38.2% McCain = Safe D
32: 57.7% Obama, 40.8% McCain = Likely D
34: 59.7% Obama, 38.4% McCain = Safe D
38: 59.0% Obama, 39.3% McCain = Safe D
39: 54.6% Obama, 43.6% McCain = Lean D
40: 50.0% McCain, 48.0% Obama = Lean R
41: 67.3% Obama, 30.8% McCain = Safe D
42: 51.3% Obama, 47.1% McCain = Toss-Up
43: 49.5% Obama, 48.5% McCain = Lean R
44: 61.8% Obama, 36.2% McCain = Safe D
45: 53.0% Obama, 45.4% McCain = Lean D
46: 65.2% Obama, 32.9% McCain = Safe D
47: 49.5% Obama, 48.4% McCain = Lean R

32/49 = 65.3% D. The current makeup is 25-24 R. This was one of my least favorite ones to make, to be honest. Every district ends up looking really sloppy no matter what.

[ElectionsGuy]

Virginia:



11: 55.3% McCain, 43.7% Obama = Safe R
13: 50.0% McCain, 49.2% Obama = Lean R
18: 50.5% McCain, 48.6% Obama = Lean R
26: 63.0% McCain, 36.3% Obama = Safe R
27: 61.1% McCain, 38.0% Obama = Safe R
28: 51.6% McCain, 47.5% Obama = Likely R
29: 57.6% McCain, 41.3% Obama = Safe R
30: 57.5% McCain, 41.7% Obama = Safe R
31: 53.0% Obama, 46.2% McCain = Lean D
32: 60.0% Obama, 39.0% McCain = Safe D
33: 60.8% McCain, 38.2% Obama = Safe R
34: 62.8% McCain, 35.8% Obama = Safe R
35: 62.8% McCain, 35.6% Obama = Safe R
37: 53.0% McCain, 45.6% Obama = Likely R
38: 57.9% McCain, 40.9% Obama = Safe R
39: 60.8% McCain, 38.0% Obama = Safe R
40: 59.8% McCain, 39.2% Obama = Safe R

Washington Suburbs Close-Up:



1: 72.0% Obama, 27.1% McCain = Safe D
2: 70.4% Obama, 28.8% McCain = Safe D
3: 64.0% Obama, 35.3% McCain = Safe D
4: 63.3% Obama, 35.9% McCain = Safe D
5: 58.9% Obama, 40.3% McCain = Safe D
6: 60.9% Obama, 38.3% McCain = Safe D
7: 58.4% Obama, 40.9% McCain = Safe D
8: 52.5% Obama, 46.8% McCain = Lean D
9: 64.7% Obama, 34.6% McCain = Safe D
10: 53.5% Obama, 45.9% McCain = Lean D
12: 52.3% Obama, 47.0% McCain = Lean D

Richmond Close-Up:



14: 79.9% Obama, 19.3% McCain = Safe D
15: 52.8% McCain, 46.4% Obama = Likely R
16: 50.7% McCain, 48.6% Obama = Lean R
17: 70.4% Obama, 29.0% McCain = Safe D

Southeastern Virginia:



19: 53.3% Obama, 45.8% McCain = Lean D
20: 58.1% McCain, 41.2% Obama = Safe R
21: 67.7% Obama, 31.5% McCain = Safe D
22: 73.5% Obama, 25.9% McCain = Safe D
23: 51.2% Obama, 48.1% McCain = Toss-Up
24: 70.6% Obama, 28.8% McCain = Safe D
25: 55.1% Obama, 44.2% McCain = Likely D

Roanoke Close-Up:



36: 50.0% McCain, 49.1% Obama = Lean R

20.5/40 = 51.3% D. The current makeup is 21-19 R.

[ElectionsGuy]

Southern New Jersey:



5: 60.4% Obama, 38.3% McCain = Safe D
6: 52.1% Obama, 46.5% McCain = Lean D
7: 56.4% Obama, 42.6% McCain = Likely D
8: 52.0% Obama, 46.8% McCain = Lean D
9: 57.1% McCain, 41.5% Obama = Safe R
10: 61.9% McCain, 37.0% Obama = Safe R
12: 50.0% McCain, 48.6% Obama = Lean R
13: 53.3% McCain, 45.5% Obama = Likely R
14: 50.4% Obama, 48.5% McCain = Toss-Up
15: 53.7% McCain, 45.3% Obama = Likely R

Philadelphia Suburbs Close-Up:



1: 72.6% Obama, 26.3% McCain = Safe D
2: 63.9% Obama, 35.0% McCain = Safe D
3: 64.4% Obama, 34.7% McCain = Safe D
4: 55.2% Obama, 43.5% McCain = Likely D

Northeastern New Jersey:



16: 92.7% Obama, 7.0% McCain = Safe D
17: 83.0% Obama, 16.2% McCain = Safe D
18: 68.7% Obama, 30.4% McCain = Safe D
19: 93.8% Obama, 5.9% McCain = Safe D
20: 72.8% Obama, 26.3% McCain = Safe D
21: 59.5% Obama, 39.5% McCain = Safe D
22: 58.8% Obama, 40.2% McCain =Safe D
23: 68.8% Obama, 30.6% McCain = Safe D
24: 49.8% McCain, 49.5% Obama = Lean R
25: 78.4% Obama, 21.0% McCain = Safe D
26: 53.7% McCain, 45.5% Obama = Likely R
27: 59.2% Obama, 40.0% McCain = Safe D
28: 60.7% Obama, 38.5% McCain = Safe D
29: 59.5% Obama, 39.6% McCain = Safe D
31: 52.4% Obama, 46.4% McCain = Lean D
32: 64.3% Obama, 34.7% McCain = Safe D
33: 69.1% Obama, 29.8% McCain = Safe D
34: 64.2% Obama, 34.9% McCain = Safe D
35: 55.8% McCain, 43.3% Obama = Safe R
36: 49.7% Obama, 49.1% McCain = Toss-Up
37: 51.8% McCain, 47.3% Obama = Likely R
39: 53.9% McCain, 45.0% Obama = Likely R

Northern New Jersey:



11: 72.4% Obama, 26.6% McCain = Safe D
30: 65.7% Obama, 33.3% McCain = Safe D
38: 56.0% McCain, 42.5% Obama = Safe R
40: 58.7% McCain, 39.9% Obama = Safe R

27/40 = 67.5% D. The current makeup is 24-16 D.

[ElectionsGuy]

North Carolina:



1: 59.6% Obama, 39.1% McCain = Safe D
2: 56.6% McCain, 41.8% Obama = Safe R
3: 60.0% McCain, 38.7% Obama = Safe R
4: 59.2% McCain, 39.4% Obama = Safe R
10: 60.8% McCain, 38.1% Obama = Safe R
14: 57.6% McCain, 41.4% Obama = Safe R
15: 63.2% McCain, 35.6% Obama = Safe R
16: 63.2% McCain, 35.7% Obama = Safe R
17: 58.6% McCain, 39.7% Obama = Safe R
18: 66.8% McCain, 31.8% Obama = Safe R
19: 60.3% McCain, 38.6% Obama = Safe R
25: 68.0% McCain, 30.9% Obama = Safe R
33: 60.3% McCain, 38.5% Obama = Safe R
34: 55.4% Obama, 43.8% McCain = Likely D
36: 58.4% Obama, 40.8% McCain = Safe D
37: 56.7% McCain, 42.4% Obama = Safe R
40: 49.6% Obama, 49.6% McCain = Lean R (Obama won by 4 votes)
41: 57.5% McCain, 41.5% Obama = Safe R
42: 65.2% Obama, 34.3% McCain = Safe D
43: 59.0% Obama, 40.5% McCain = Safe D
48: 61.2% McCain, 37.9% Obama = Safe R
49: 61.1% McCain, 37.9% Obama = Safe R

Charlotte Close-Up:



5: 74.0% Obama, 25.4% McCain = Safe D
6: 73.6% Obama, 25.7% McCain = Safe D
7: 77.9% Obama, 21.4% McCain = Safe D
8: 53.8% McCain, 45.4% Obama = Likely R
9: 62.6% McCain, 36.6% Obama = Safe R
11: 60.5% McCain, 38.9% Obama = Safe R
12: 61.8% McCain, 37.2% Obama = Safe R
13: 60.1% McCain, 39.2% Obama = Safe R

Greensboro/Winston-Salem Close-Up:



20: 70.6% Obama, 28.8% McCain = Safe D
21: 76.8% Obama, 22.5% McCain = Safe D
22: 55.1% McCain, 43.9% Obama = Safe R
23: 54.2% McCain, 44.9% Obama = Safe R
24: 61.4% McCain, 37.6% Obama = Safe R

Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill Close-Up:



26: 69.2% Obama, 29.8% McCain = Safe D
27: 80.9% Obama, 18.3% McCain = Safe D
28: 77.1% Obama, 22.0% McCain = Safe D
29: 58.8% Obama, 40.2% McCain = Safe D
30: 53.4% Obama, 45.5% McCain = Lean D
31: 50.4% McCain, 48.6% Obama = Lean R
32: 51.1% McCain, 48.0% Obama = Lean R

Eastern North Carolina:



35: 69.6% Obama, 29.8% McCain = Safe D
38: 57.9% McCain, 41.5% Obama = Safe R
44: 56.9% McCain, 42.4% Obama = Safe R
45: 53.9% McCain, 45.3% Obama = Likely R
46: 54.7% McCain, 44.6% Obama = Safe R
47: 58.2% Obama, 41.2% McCain = Safe D
50: 57.5% McCain, 41.9% Obama = Safe R

Wilmington Close-Up:



39: 49.7% McCain, 49.3% Obama = Lean R

33/50 = 66.0% R. The current makeup is 34-16 R. I admit, this was kind of gerrymandered. I'm not sure how long ago I did this, but if I were to do one recently I would create a nicer version (particularly in the east).

[ElectionsGuy]

Northern Georgia:



22: 79.9% McCain, 18.9% Obama = Safe R
25: 73.6% McCain, 25.2% Obama = Safe R
26: 71.2% McCain, 27.7% Obama = Safe R
27: 69.3% McCain, 29.5% Obama = Safe R
28: 69.5% McCain, 29.4% Obama = Safe R
29: 68.5% McCain, 30.7% Obama = Safe R
30: 55.8% McCain, 43.4% Obama = Likely R*
32: 75.8% McCain, 23.1% Obama = Safe R
33: 74.5% McCain, 24.6% Obama = Safe R
34: 51.0% Obama, 47.9% McCain = Lean D
36: 75.1% McCain, 23.9% Obama = Safe R
37: 68.7% McCain, 30.6% Obama = Safe R

Southern Georgia:



40: 56.1% Obama, 43.5% McCain = Safe D
41: 63.8% Obama, 35.8% McCain = Safe D
42: 62.9% McCain, 36.5% Obama = Safe R
43: 56.2% McCain, 43.2% Obama = Safe R
44: 67.4% McCain, 31.9% Obama = Safe R
45: 50.8% Obama, 48.6% McCain = Lean D
46: 53.5% McCain, 45.9% Obama = Likely R
47: 57.3% Obama, 42.3% McCain = Safe D
48: 54.6% McCain, 44.8% Obama = Safe R
51: 53.8% McCain, 45.6% Obama = Likely R
52: 69.5% McCain, 29.8% Obama = Safe R
53: 67.2% McCain, 32.1% Obama = Safe R
54: 66.7% McCain, 32.7% Obama = Safe R
55: 65.3% McCain, 34.1% Obama = Safe R
56: 59.6% McCain, 39.8% Obama = Safe R

Atlanta Close-Up:



1: 89.3% Obama, 10.4% McCain = Safe D
2: 95.0% Obama, 4.7% McCain = Safe D
3: 84.3% Obama, 14.8% McCain = Safe D
4: 85.1% Obama, 14.6% McCain = Safe D
5: 66.5% Obama, 33.1% McCain = Safe D
6: 50.9% McCain, 48.3% Obama = Lean R
7: 97.1% Obama, 2.7% McCain = Safe D
8: 91.0% Obama, 8.7% McCain = Safe D
9: 55.2% Obama, 44.1% McCain = Likely D
10: 70.4% Obama, 28.7% McCain = Safe D
11: 55.0% McCain, 44.1% Obama = Safe R
12: 66.0% Obama, 33.3% McCain = Safe D
13: 54.2% McCain, 45.0% Obama = Likely R
14: 62.7% McCain, 36.5% Obama = Safe R
15: 57.9% McCain, 41.2% Obama = Safe R
16: 69.9% McCain, 29.4% Obama = Safe R
17: 62.2% Obama, 37.0% McCain = Safe D
18: 55.6% Obama, 43.4% McCain = Likely D
19: 63.3% McCain, 35.6% Obama = Safe R
20: 65.6% McCain, 33.5% Obama = Safe R
21: 74.5% McCain, 24.4% Obama = Safe R
23: 52.0% McCain, 47.2% Obama = Likely R
24: 70.4% McCain, 28.6% Obama = Safe R
31: 54.2% Obama, 45.2% McCain = Likely D
35: 71.7% McCain, 27.4% Obama = Safe R

Savannah Close-Up:



49: 70.9% Obama, 28.6% McCain = Safe D
50: 70.2% McCain, 29.2% Obama = Safe R

Augusta Close-Up:



38: 69.4% Obama, 30.2% McCain = Safe D
39: 67.3% McCain, 32.3% Obama = Safe R

*Only because of the sharply increasing black population in this area

36/56 = 64.3% R. The current makeup is 38-18.

[ElectionsGuy]

Northern Michigan:



1: 52.4% Obama, 45.7% McCain = Toss-Up
2: 51.0% McCain, 47.2% Obama = Likely R

Southern Michigan:



3: 49.2% McCain, 49.2% Obama: Likely R (McCain won by 85 votes)
20: 49.6% McCain, 48.4% Obama = Likely R
24: 49.6% Obama, 48.5% McCain = Likely R
25: 60.5% Obama, 37.9% McCain = Safe D
26: 52.0% Obama, 46.3% McCain = Toss-Up
27: 51.1% Obama, 47.1% McCain = Lean R
28: 49.8% Obama, 48.4% McCain = Lean R
29: 51.8% Obama, 46.7% McCain = Lean R
30: 58.7% Obama, 39.7% McCain = Likely D
31: 53.4% McCain, 44.9% Obama = Safe R
33: 59.2% Obama, 39.3% McCain = Likely D
34: 49.1% McCain, 49.0% Obama = Likely R
35: 49.5% McCain, 48.7% Obama = Likely R
37: 49.5% Obama, 48.7% McCain = Likely R
38: 51.0% Obama, 47.3% McCain = Lean R

Detroit Close-Up:



4: 97.0% Obama, 2.7% McCain = Safe D
5: 98.1% Obama, 1.6% McCain = Safe D
6: 93.3% Obama, 6.0% McCain = Safe D
7: 63.4% Obama, 34.6% McCain = Safe D
8: 60.3% Obama, 37.8% McCain = Safe D
9: 64.2% Obama, 34.2% McCain = Safe D
10: 50.3% Obama, 48.2% McCain = Lean R
11: 60.9% Obama, 37.0% McCain = Safe D
12: 73.3% Obama, 25.5% McCain = Safe D
13: 54.4% Obama, 43.8% McCain = Lean D
14: 60.3% Obama, 38.4% McCain = Safe D
15: 51.4% Obama, 47.0% McCain = Lean R
16: 51.3% McCain, 47.2% Obama = Safe R
17: 53.9% McCain, 44.4% Obama = Safe R
18: 54.2% McCain, 44.1% Obama = Safe R
19: 77.0% Obama, 21.7% McCain = Safe D

Grand Rapids Close-Up:



23: 62.2% Obama, 36.2% McCain = Safe D
32: 62.9% McCain, 35.5% Obama = Safe R
36: 57.2% McCain, 41.1% Obama = Safe R

Flint/Lansing Close-Up:



21: 74.2% Obama, 24.5% McCain = Safe D
22: 68.6% Obama, 29.9% McCain = Safe D

20/38 = 52.6% R. The current makeup is 27-11 R (seriously, the Michigan Dems might be as bad as the Florida D's. I have 13 Safe D districts. How is 11 even possible?)