EG's State Senate Thread
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #25 on: March 02, 2014, 05:27:01 PM »
« edited: September 08, 2015, 06:56:26 PM by ElectionsGuy »

Maine:



27: 49.8% McCain, 48.1% Obama = Likely R
30: 59.5% Obama, 37.5% McCain = Safe D
32: 54.1% Obama, 43.4% McCain = Lean D
33: 49.6% McCain, 48.3% Obama = Likely R
34: 52.5% McCain, 45.4% Obama = Safe R
35: 61.9% Obama, 36.0% McCain = Safe D

Southwest Close-Up:



3: 60.8% Obama, 37.9% McCain = Safe D
4: 61.0% Obama, 37.3% McCain = Safe D
10: 56.6% Obama, 41.3% McCain = Likely D
11: 53.5% Obama, 44.4% McCain = Lean D
13: 61.0% Obama, 37.4% McCain = Safe D
14: 62.8% Obama, 35.2% McCain = Safe D
15: 54.8% Obama, 43.1% McCain = Lean D
16: 53.4% Obama, 44.8% McCain = Lean D
17: 60.0% Obama, 38.2% McCain = Safe D
18: 56.0% Obama, 42.0% McCain = Likely D
20: 53.6% Obama, 44.3% McCain = Lean D
21: 56.7% Obama, 41.2% McCain = Likely D
29: 55.1% Obama, 42.6% McCain = Likely D

Portland Close-Up:



5: 64.9% Obama, 33.2% McCain = Safe D
6: 57.3% Obama, 41.1% McCain = Likely D
7: 68.6% Obama, 29.9% McCain = Safe D
8: 80.4% Obama, 17.7% McCain = Safe D
9: 68.2% Obama, 30.2% McCain = Safe D
12: 58.9% Obama, 39.2% McCain = Safe D

Bangor/Augusta Area Close-Up:




1: 56.5% Obama, 42.0% McCain = Likely D
2: 58.7% Obama, 39.7% McCain = Safe D
19: 54.7% Obama, 43.4% McCain = Lean D
22: 59.8% Obama, 38.4% McCain = Safe D
23: 51.9% Obama, 46.1% McCain = Toss-Up
24: 63.6% Obama, 34.5% McCain = Safe D
25: 52.8% Obama, 45.6% McCain = Toss-Up
26: 57.6% Obama, 40.6% McCain = Likely D
28: 54.2% McCain, 44.0% Obama = Safe R
31: 53.6% Obama, 44.4% McCain = Lean D




I'm hesitant to put ratings here because of there being so many yankees. I'll figure it out later. I did have a few issues with deviation, but overall I think everything turned out good and neater than I expected. Max deviation was 3,000, but most were under 1,000.

Edit: 30/35 = 85.7% D. The current state senate is 20-15 R.
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Vega
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« Reply #26 on: March 02, 2014, 05:40:47 PM »

Great job on Maine.

Would it be possible to do Pennsylvania, State Senate wise? Thanks.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #27 on: March 02, 2014, 06:06:46 PM »

Great job on Maine.

Would it be possible to do Pennsylvania, State Senate wise? Thanks.


Yes, I'm doing all the states. It won't be for awhile though, because I'm doing low population states first up to high population states. Wyoming first, California last.

Also, the reason I'm skipping AK, MT, and RI for right now is because they don't have election results. I'll do those later with more careful ratings on those.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #28 on: March 02, 2014, 06:25:52 PM »

Hawaii:


 
1: 75.1% Obama, 22.9% McCain = Safe D
2: 67.6% Obama, 30.2% McCain = Safe D
19: 71.0% Obama, 27.6% McCain = Safe D
22: 75.2% Obama, 22.9% McCain = Safe D
23: 69.3% Obama, 29.0% McCain = Safe D
24: 77.2% Obama, 20.0% McCain = Safe D
25: 80.2% Obama, 18.5% McCain = Safe D

Honolulu County Close-Up:



3: 71.4% Obama, 27.0% McCain = Safe D
4: 69.2% Obama, 28.4% McCain = Safe D
5: 75.1% Obama, 23.0% McCain = Safe D
6: 73.9% Obama, 24.6% McCain = Safe D
7: 70.2% Obama, 28.1% McCain = Safe D
8: 68.7% Obama, 30.0% McCain = Safe D
9: 63.1% Obama, 35.9% McCain = Likely D
10: 66.3% Obama, 32.5% McCain = Safe D
11: 71.5% Obama, 27.1% McCain = Safe D
12: 68.7% Obama, 30.0% McCain = Safe D
13: 69.1% Obama, 29.9% McCain = Safe D
14: 70.0% Obama, 28.8% McCain = Safe D
15: 69.2% Obama, 29.6% McCain = Safe D
16: 71.3% Obama, 27.5% McCain = Safe D
17: 70.0% Obama, 28.7% McCain = Safe D
18: 68.8% Obama, 29.9% McCain = Safe D

(The YellowGreen color you see is the start of the 19th district which continues onto Maui)

Maui Close-Up:



20: 74.9% Obama, 23.4% McCain = Safe D
21: 80.3% Obama, 18.0% McCain = Safe D
22: 75.2% Obama, 22.9% McCain = Safe D

(District 22 continues onto the big island)

As you can see, this is pretty close to the 24-1 control of the state senate now Tongue Maybe the republican can try to win in the 9th district, which *only* went 63% Obama.

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jimrtex
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« Reply #29 on: March 02, 2014, 11:10:45 PM »


The Hawaii constitution requires apportionment of senators and representatives among the 4 island groups.  Canoe districts are not legal.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #30 on: March 02, 2014, 11:48:27 PM »


The Hawaii constitution requires apportionment of senators and representatives among the 4 island groups.  Canoe districts are not legal.

I see... I suppose I could fix it, but I would have some big deviations. Doesn't really change anything politically. Pretty much what I would do is:

1. 1st district entirely on Kauai
2. 20th district take over the two little islands  in Maui County
3. 23rd and 25th districts (both to minimize deviation) take over leftover 22nd district area in Hawaii County.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #31 on: March 03, 2014, 12:13:39 AM »
« Edited: August 26, 2015, 01:26:11 AM by ElectionsGuy »

Rhode Island:



Providence Close-Up:



1: 92.0% Obama, 7.4% McCain = Safe D
2: 90.9% Obama, 8.5% McCain = Safe D
3: 79.1% Obama, 19.8% McCain = Safe D
4: 75.2% Obama, 23.2% McCain = Safe D
5: 79.4% Obama, 19.0% McCain = Safe D
6: 84.4% Obama, 14.3% McCain = Safe D
7: 80.7% Obama, 17.8% McCain = Safe D
8: 67.1% Obama, 31.2% McCain = Safe D
9: 68.3% Obama, 30.2% McCain = Safe D
10: 60.5% Obama, 37.9% McCain = Safe D
12: 78.9% Obama, 19.5% McCain = Safe D
13: 69.9% Obama, 28.3% McCain = Safe D
14: 77.1% Obama, 21.4% McCain = Safe D
15: 64.7% Obama, 33.6% McCain = Safe D
19: 60.5% Obama, 37.9% McCain = Safe D

Northern Rhode Island:



11: 52.6% Obama, 45.8% McCain = Lean D Likely D
16: 66.7% Obama, 31.8% McCain = Safe D
17: 58.0% Obama, 40.4% McCain = Safe D Likely D
18: 55.6% Obama, 42.7% McCain = Likely D
20: 52.7% Obama, 45.2% McCain = Lean D Likely D
21: 52.2% Obama, 45.8% McCain = Lean D          Likely D
22: 53.7% Obama, 44.2% Mccain = Likely D
23: 51.1% Obama, 46.7% McCain = Toss-Up         Lean D
24: 62.4% Obama, 36.2% McCain = Safe D
25: 62.9% Obama, 35.5% McCain = Safe D         Likely D
29: 63.4% Obama, 34.6% McCain = Safe D
30: 59.4% Obama, 38.8% McCain = Safe D
31: 58.1% Obama, 40.3% McCain = Safe D       Likely D
32: 56.5% Obama, 41.7% McCain = Likely D
33: 60.5% Obama, 37.8% McCain = Safe D      Likely D
34: 54.4% Obama, 43.9% McCain = Likely D        Lean D

Southern Rhode Island:



26: 65.1% Obama, 33.5% McCain = Safe D
27: 58.8% Obama, 39.9% McCain = Safe D         Likely D
28: 58.6% Obama, 39.8% McCain = Safe D         Lean D
35: 57.7% Obama, 40.4% McCain = Safe D
36: 57.6% Obama, 40.3% McCain = Safe D         Lean D
37: 58.8% Obama, 39.6% McCain = Safe D       Likely D
38: 64.9% Obama, 33.4% McCain = Safe D      Likely D
 
Using my best guesses about county data, I made the ratings. These are educated guesses, so please tell me if I'm wrong on these (which I certainly could be). Overall this is almost all guaranteed D. The R's have a shot at the more rural districts like 23, 36, 20, 21, 22, etc. There might be contiguity problems with 26 (as part is in Newport and the other part is in Washington county). The current state senate is 32-5-1.

EDIT: I put in the actual numbers since DRA has them now.

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jimrtex
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« Reply #32 on: March 03, 2014, 10:12:07 AM »


The Hawaii constitution requires apportionment of senators and representatives among the 4 island groups.  Canoe districts are not legal.

I see... I suppose I could fix it, but I would have some big deviations. Doesn't really change anything politically. Pretty much what I would do is:

1. 1st district entirely on Kauai
2. 20th district take over the two little islands  in Maui County
3. 23rd and 25th districts (both to minimize deviation) take over leftover 22nd district area in Hawaii County.
This was recently approved by the 9th Circuit, and the Supreme Court declined to hear the case.  The deviation caused by the whole island group apportionment was somewhat of a secondary issue.   The main issue was Hawaii basing its legislative apportionment on permanent residents, excluding military personnel and their dependents who are not from Hawaii (for tax purposes), as well as out-of-state students.

Before 2000, Hawaii had what were referred to as canoe districts, as those drawing the lines had decided like you, that the Supreme Court would never accept an alternative basis to census population, as well as such large deviation.

In 2000, adjustments for the military were made, but it appears that this was done in order to reduce the amount of deviation.  Almost all the military are on Oahu, and the change would make enough difference to make the apportionment for the neighbor islands more acceptable.

In 2010, initially only a small adjustment was made, excluding military personnel living in barracks.  This was challenged, and the Hawaii Supreme Court overturned it as a violation of the state constitution.  The reapportionment commission then did a more extensive adjustment, which was based on military pay records, which record where state taxes are paid, as well as state of enlistment, and also have number of dependents.  Hawaii then adjusted the census block populations.  Just over 100,000 were whacked from the apportionment data (quite large compared to the 1.3 million total).

The primary effect was to give a 4rd whole senate seat to the island of Hawaii, at the expense of Oahu, as well as changes to the Oahu districts since the military population is concentrated in the western part of the island around Pearl Harbor.

While Kauai has an oversized senate district, it has 3 undersized house districts.

The takeaway may be that community of interest may override simplistic notions of population equality, at least in Hawaii where the islands are separated by 100s of miles of international water, and are not contiguous even in a legal sense. 
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Gass3268
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« Reply #33 on: March 03, 2014, 11:47:52 AM »

What do your racial numbers look like in Rhode Island? I imagine some of those districts around Providence are majority hispanic.
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Just Passion Through
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« Reply #34 on: March 05, 2014, 09:36:10 PM »

I'm working on another MS map and I'll get to CO soon, so I'll be posting those soon. Smiley
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Just Passion Through
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« Reply #35 on: March 06, 2014, 12:36:51 AM »


(Click for larger version)

1. 55-45 Obama = Lean D
2. 56-43 Obama = Lean D
3. 58-41 Obama = Likely D
4. 54-46 Obama = Tilt D
5. 57-42 Obama = Likely D
6. 57-42 Obama = Likely D
7. 55-44 Obama = Lean D
8. 57-43 Obama = Likely D
9. 54-45 Obama = Tilt D
10. 67-33 Obama = Safe D
11. 57-42 Obama = Likely D
12. 61-39 Obama = Safe D
13. 63-37 Obama = Safe D
14. 55-44 Obama = Lean D
15. 56-43 Obama = Lean D
16. 62-37 Obama = Safe D
17. 58-42 Obama = Safe D
18. 53-47 Obama = Toss-Up
19. 64-36 Obama = Safe D
20. 54-46 Obama = Tilt D
21. 56-43 Obama = Lean D
22. 57-43 Obama = Likely D
23. 55-45 Obama = Lean D
24. 55-44 Obama = Lean D
25. 52-47 Obama = Toss-Up
26. 78-21 McCain = Safe R
27. 54-45 Obama = Tilt D
28. 70-29 McCain = Safe R
29. 77-22 McCain = Safe R
30. 71-28 McCain = Safe R
31. 68-31 Obama = Safe D
32. 64-35 McCain = Safe R
33. 74-25 McCain = Safe R
34. 78-20 McCain = Safe R
35. 63-37 McCain = Safe R
36. 80-20 McCain = Safe R
37. 77-22 McCain = Safe R
38. 81-18 McCain = Safe R
39. 76-23 McCain = Safe R
40. 77-21 McCain = Safe R
41. 82-17 McCain = Safe R
42. 80-20 McCain = Safe R
43. 53-47 Obama = Toss-Up
44. 66-33 McCain = Safe R
45. 78-22 McCain = Safe R
46. 79-20 McCain = Safe R
47. 71-28 McCain = Safe R
48. 72-27 McCain = Safe R
49. 72-26 McCain = Safe R
50. 51-48 McCain = Tilt R
51. 71-28 McCain = Safe R
52. 74-26 McCain = Safe R

27 Obama seats, 25 McCain seats

(Remember that Mississippi swung toward Obama in 2012.  Toss-Up/Tilt D seats would likely go in the Democratic column, especially if we account for Blue Dogs)

Not my best MS map, but I decided to stop at attempt #4 or so.  There's my contribution for the evening. Smiley
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Miles
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« Reply #36 on: March 06, 2014, 02:45:31 AM »

Also keep in mind an EVEN district in the south is like a mildly D district anywhere else (except probably in the suburbs).
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Just Passion Through
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« Reply #37 on: March 06, 2014, 03:39:31 AM »

Also keep in mind an EVEN district in the south is like a mildly D district anywhere else (except probably in the suburbs).

Yeah.  Plus even a >60% McCain district could go D under the right circumstances, but most of my McCain districts are solid R.
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Just Passion Through
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« Reply #38 on: March 06, 2014, 12:34:29 PM »



Denver:

1. 57-42 Obama = Likely D
2. 57-41 Obama = Likely D
3. 64-35 McCain = Safe R
4. 54-44 Obama = Tilt D
5. 56-42 McCain = Safe R
6. 56-42 Obama = Lean D
7. 56-42 Obama = Lean D
8. 56-42 McCain = Safe R
9. 54-45 Obama = Tilt D
10. 58-41 Obama = Safe D
11. 57-41 Obama = Likely D
12. 54-45 Obama = Tilt D
13. 55-44 McCain = Likely R
14. 57-41 Obama = Likely D
15. 57-42 Obama = Likely D
16. 59-39 Obama = Safe D
17. 60-39 McCain = Safe R
18. 64-35 McCain = Safe R
19. 68-31 McCain = Safe R
20. 61-37 McCain = Safe R
21. 53-45 Obama = Toss-Up
22. 72-27 Obama = Safe D
23. 68-30 Obama = Safe D
24. 82-17 Obama = Safe D
25. 67-31 Obama = Safe D
26. 59-39 Obama = Safe D
27. 60-39 Obama = Safe D
28. 58-41 Obama = Safe D
29. 70-28 Obama = Safe D
30. 60-38 Obama = Safe D
31. 62-36 McCain = Safe R
32. 56-43 McCain = Safe R
33. 57-42 Obama = Likely D
34. 56-42 Obama = Lean D
35. 61-37 Obama = Safe D

24 D, 1 Toss-Up, 10 R
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Vega
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« Reply #39 on: March 06, 2014, 12:56:10 PM »

Ooh, excellent.
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Just Passion Through
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« Reply #40 on: March 08, 2014, 05:19:12 PM »

36/36 Obama Senate districts in Connecticut!!



1. 64-36 Obama = Safe D
2. 55-44 Obama = Lean D
3. 61-39 Obama = Safe D
4. 58-42 Obama = Safe D
5. 58-42 Obama = Safe D
6. 71-29 Obama = Safe D
7. 78-22 Obama = Safe D
8. 59-40 Obama = Safe D
9. 59-40 Obama = Safe D
10. 56-43 Obama = Lean D
11. 57-41 Obama = Likely D
12. 56-43 Obama = Lean D
13. 52-46 Obama = Tossup
14. 54-45 Obama = Tilt D
15. 56-43 Obama = Lean D
16. 56-43 Obama = Lean D
17. 62-36 Obama = Safe D
18. 64-35 Obama = Safe D
19. 56-43 Obama = Lean D
20. 61-38 Obama = Safe D
21. 58-41 Obama = Safe D
22. 89-11 Obama = Safe D
23. 58-41 Obama = Safe D
24. 58-41 Obama = Safe D
25. 65-34 Obama = Safe D
26. 57-42 Obama = Likely D
27. 59-39 Obama = Safe D
28. 60-38 Obama = Safe D
29. 58-41 Obama = Safe D
30. 64-34 Obama = Safe D
31. 61-38 Obama = Safe D
32. 71-28 Obama = Safe D
33. 84-15 Obama = Safe D
34. 62-37 Obama = Safe D
35. 63-36 Obama = Safe D
36. 55-43 Obama = Tilt D

Obviously, Democrats wouldn't win every seat, but they'd control the chamber by a bit more than 22-14.

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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #41 on: March 08, 2014, 06:54:04 PM »

Idaho:



Northern Idaho:



1: 57.5% McCain, 39.5% Obama = Safe R
5: 61.1% McCain, 36.1% Obama = Safe R
6: 49.8% Obama, 47.4% McCain = Toss-Up
7: 62.8% McCain, 35.1% Obama = Safe R

Coeur d'Alene Close-Up:



2: 53.4% McCain, 44.3% Obama = Likely R
3: 67.9% McCain, 29.9% Obama = Safe R
4: 64.3% McCain, 33.3% Obama = Safe R

Boise and Suburbs Close-Up:



8: 55.3% Obama, 42.4% McCain = Lean D
9: 69.1% Obama, 28.4% McCain = Safe D
10: 50.7% Obama, 47.2% McCain = Toss-Up
11: 49.9% Obama, 47.5% McCain = Toss-Up
12: 64.6% McCain, 33.8% Obama = Safe R
13: 58.2% McCain, 40.0% Obama = Safe R
14: 63.1% McCain, 34.9% Obama = Safe R
15: 63.8% McCain, 34.2% Obama = Safe R
16: 62.1% McCain, 35.5% Obama = Safe R
17: 60.1% McCain, 37.8% Obama = Safe R
18: 67.0% McCain, 30.7% Obama = Safe R
19: 68.4% McCain, 30.0% Obama = Safe R
20: 71.0% McCain, 26.7% Obama = Safe R

Twin Falls Close-Up:



21: 62.2% McCain, 35.4% Obama = Safe R

Pocatello/Idaho Falls Close-Up:



28: 49.1% McCain, 48.0% Obama = Lean R
30: 63.0% McCain, 34.5% Obama = Safe R
31: 62.6% McCain, 35.2% Obama = Safe R
33: 84.7% McCain, 13.0% Obama = Safe R

Southern Idaho:



22: 69.1% McCain, 28.5% Obama = Safe R
23: 65.9% McCain, 31.3% Obama = Safe R
24: 70.0% McCain, 27.9% Obama = Safe R
25: 76.8% McCain, 20.7% Obama = Safe R
26: 69.7% McCain, 27.8% Obama = Safe R
27: 50.3% McCain, 47.4% Obama = Likely R
29: 74.5% McCain, 22.4% Obama = Safe R
32: 74.0% McCain, 23.3% Obama = Safe R
34: 75.7% McCain, 22.0% Obama = Safe R
35: 73.5% McCain, 24.3% Obama = Safe R

31.5/35  = 90% R
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Sol
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« Reply #42 on: March 09, 2014, 12:23:32 AM »

I've been mapping Texas myself recently, and you basically have to focus, laserlike, the VRA (which doesn't just mean majority-minority districts in TX- a 55% Latino district that swallows up republican exurbia for that other 45% is probably illegal, due to weird turnout rates) . What are the Hispanic percentages?
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #43 on: March 09, 2014, 12:53:25 AM »

I've been mapping Texas myself recently, and you basically have to focus, laserlike, the VRA (which doesn't just mean majority-minority districts in TX- a 55% Latino district that swallows up republican exurbia for that other 45% is probably illegal, due to weird turnout rates) . What are the Hispanic percentages?

These are non-VAP numbers:

1: 82.0%
2: 33.3%
3: 90.9%
4: 91.3%
5: 39.2%
6: 22.3%
7: 77.1%
8: 40.1%
9: 60.2% (Majority Hispanic McCain district, is this the one you were talking about?)
10: 33.2%
11: 49.8%
12: 52.4%
13: 34.5% (Most diverse district: 34% H, 24% W, 24% B, 15% A)
14: 36.3%
15: 20.5%
16: 24.6%
17: 32.7%
18: 22.5%
19: 15.4%
20: 44.5%
21: 38.2%
22: 31.7%
23: 36.0%
24: 18.0%
25: 14.6%
26: 17.5%
27: 16.9%
28: 11.7%
29: 16.7%
30: 32.8%
31: 29.4% (You would think this district would be higher than 30)
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Sol
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« Reply #44 on: March 09, 2014, 08:48:35 AM »

You probably need to split District 4 and 9 on a vertical axis instead of a horizontal one.

Also, maybe make the Houston district more Hispanic?
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muon2
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« Reply #45 on: March 10, 2014, 07:40:27 AM »

You probably need to split District 4 and 9 on a vertical axis instead of a horizontal one.

Also, maybe make the Houston district more Hispanic?

Dists 3 and 4 both are packed with too many Hispanics to avoid a VRA challenge. Those two plus dist 9 would be better if rearranged to provide similar HVAPs.
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Just Passion Through
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« Reply #46 on: March 10, 2014, 02:48:58 PM »

I'm trying to challenge myself and make an R gerrymander of the NY Senate, or at least draw a composition that resembles the current Senate, but by the looks of things, the state is going to be at least 2-1 D.  Do state Republicans just naturally do better in D-friendly territory here or something?
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cinyc
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« Reply #47 on: March 10, 2014, 03:43:10 PM »

I'm trying to challenge myself and make an R gerrymander of the NY Senate, or at least draw a composition that resembles the current Senate, but by the looks of things, the state is going to be at least 2-1 D.  Do state Republicans just naturally do better in D-friendly territory here or something?

State Senate Republicans overperform on Long Island and in other places that seem like D-friendly territory.  The NYC suburbs aren't as Democratic as they look on the national level. 

Plus, under the current gerrymander, Senate districts are far from uniform size.  NYC districts are overpopulated relative to the mean.  Upstate districts are underpopulated.  The deviation is pretty large - 10%.
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muon2
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« Reply #48 on: March 11, 2014, 12:15:53 PM »

I'm trying to challenge myself and make an R gerrymander of the NY Senate, or at least draw a composition that resembles the current Senate, but by the looks of things, the state is going to be at least 2-1 D.  Do state Republicans just naturally do better in D-friendly territory here or something?

State Senate Republicans overperform on Long Island and in other places that seem like D-friendly territory.  The NYC suburbs aren't as Democratic as they look on the national level. 

Plus, under the current gerrymander, Senate districts are far from uniform size.  NYC districts are overpopulated relative to the mean.  Upstate districts are underpopulated.  The deviation is pretty large - 10%.

Obama numbers are a very poor measure of political performance in the suburbs of the NE and Great Lakes cities. Consider that Roskam was winning his IL-6 suburban district 58-42 in 2008 while Obama was winning it 56-42, 3 points better than his national result, and Roskam was only running for a second term which is typically a vulnerable election for incumbents. Local suburban Pubs can still make the connections that were true when the GOP dominated the northern 'burbs in decades past.

Legislative districts have a looser legal standard for redistricting at the federal level. In general districts must only adhere to a 10% range standard. Some states impose tighter population standards in their constitutions or by statute.
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Miles
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« Reply #49 on: March 11, 2014, 12:47:59 PM »

I'm trying to challenge myself and make an R gerrymander of the NY Senate, or at least draw a composition that resembles the current Senate, but by the looks of things, the state is going to be at least 2-1 D.  Do state Republicans just naturally do better in D-friendly territory here or something?

State Senate Republicans overperform on Long Island and in other places that seem like D-friendly territory.  The NYC suburbs aren't as Democratic as they look on the national level. 

Plus, under the current gerrymander, Senate districts are far from uniform size.  NYC districts are overpopulated relative to the mean.  Upstate districts are underpopulated.  The deviation is pretty large - 10%.

Yeah, the NY Senate is already an R map.

Here's a pretty good visualization of the population disparity between NYC and the rest of the state.
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