EG's State Senate Thread

[windjammer]

Thank you Cuomo

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Here we are, kids.  The big, the bad, the ugly...

New York State Senate Republican gerrymander!!!



We begin our tour of the "new" New York in the Upstate region, where Republicans make inroads in just about every corner of the map!


From North Country to Central New York...

1. 51.7-46.8 Obama (Dev: -15,473)
2. 51.4-46.8 Obama (Dev: -26,367)
3. 50.6-47.6 McCain (Dev: -20,393)
4. 51.3-46.8 Obama (Dev: -24,791)
5. 49.4-49.3 McCain (Dev: -26,814)
6. 74.9-23.8 Obama (Dev: -32,988)
7. 49.5-41.1 McCain (Dev: -26,536)


...to Finger Lakes and Western New York.

8. 51.2-47.2 McCain (Dev: -21,985)
9. 50.2-48.3 Obama (Dev: -30,260)
10. 77.4-21.2 Obama (Dev: -7,889)
11. 50.8-47.5 Obama (Dev: -9,462)
12. 49.3-49 Obama (Dev: -16,433)
13. 52.2-46 McCain (Dev: -32,605)
14. 50.4-48.2 McCain (Dev: -19,578)


Southern Tier, Capital District, and Hudson Valley...

15. 51.8-46.5 Obama (Dev: -25,155)
16. 52.5-45.6 Obama (Dev: -32,477)
17. 53.4-44.7 Obama (Dev: -19,926)
18. 54.8-43.6 Obama (Dev: -8,631)
19. 51.1-47.2 Obama (Dev: -14,443)
20. 64.2-33.9 Obama (Dev: 13,641)
21. 54.3-43.7 Obama (Dev: -4,395)
22. 52.4-46.3 Obama (Dev: -10,284)
23. 55.6-42.9 Obama (Dev: -14,115)


Hudson Valley close-up...

24. 54.5-44.4 Obama (Dev: 12,814)
25. 52.8-46.4 Obama (Dev: -16,712)
26. 59.1-40 Obama (Dev: 24,592)
27. 63.9-35.3 Obama (Dev: 15,346)
28. 69-30.3 Obama (Dev: 32,806)


...and of course, New York City.

(Showing the numbers would make this a sloppy mess, but most of these districts are, as you would expect, overwhelmingly pro-Obama)

29. 70.1-29.4 Obama (Dev: -15,098)
30. 88.8-10.9 Obama (Dev: 33,460)
31. 86.9-12.7 Obama (Dev: 15,384)
32. 90.8-8.6 Obama (Dev: 25,381)
33. 96.6-3.1 Obama (Dev: 21,188)
34. 89.3-9.9 Obama (Dev: 37,057)
35. 86.1-12.8 Obama (Dev: 31,463)
36. 87.2-11.8 Obama (Dev: 33,518)
37. 77.3-21.8 Obama (Dev: -4,434)
38. 87.4-12.1 Obama (Dev: 3,200)
39. 80.4-18.5 Obama (Dev: 11,395)
40. 92.4-7.2 Obama (Dev: 18,096)
41. 89.3-10.1 Obama (Dev: 17,478)
42. 94.3-5.5 Obama (Dev: 28,287)
43. 95.6-4.3 Obama (Dev: 13,690)
44. 82.8-16.7 Obama (Dev: 14,705)
45. 88.7-11 Obama (Dev: -38,497)
46. 75.2-24.1 Obama (Dev: -17,257)
47. 71.6-27.6 Obama (Dev: -6,611)
48. 65-34.3 Obama (Dev: 5,251)
49. 70.6-28.8 Obama (Dev: -1,553)
50. 66.4-32.9 Obama (Dev: -28,121)



51. 52.7-46.5 Obama (Dev: 16,167)
52. 55-44.3 McCain (Dev: 5,288)
53. 51.6-47.5 McCain (Dev: 25,374)
54. 51.4-47.9 Obama (Dev: 30,009)
55. 52.6-46.7 Obama (Dev: 900)
56. 52.2-47.1 Obama (Dev: 25,535)
57. 51.1-48 McCain (Dev: -9,877)
58. 50.1-49 Obama (Dev: 24,870)



59. 50-49.2 McCain (Dev: -5,314)
60. 53.9-45.2 Obama (Dev: 4,300)
61. 51.3-47.7 Obama (Dev: 22,547)
62. 53.4-45.6 Obama (Dev: 20,706)


So, in keeping with the spirit of the real gerrymander, Upstate NY is grossly overrepresented while NYC is grossly underrepresented.  As far as the state of the Senate goes, Obama's numbers in the state are a poor indicator of how portions of the state might elect its state representatives, as cinyc and muon have pointed out.  It is also important to note that the State Senate had been controlled by Republicans since 1964 prior to the 2008 election in which the Democrats finally won a narrow majority in the chamber.  (The Democrats would later relinquish control of the Senate to the GOP in June of the following year due to a leadership crisis.)

So, going based on the composition of the map and accounting for local trends, I will estimate that the Republicans would hold anywhere from 30 to 36 seats, plus the bipartisan coalition of Independent Democrats, giving the GOP a healthy and competitive standing in the upper chamber.  I'm interested in hearing what others think.

Isn't New York politics interesting?

[krazen1211]

You probably need to split District 4 and 9 on a vertical axis instead of a horizontal one.

Also, maybe make the Houston district more Hispanic?

Dists 3 and 4 both are packed with too many Hispanics to avoid a VRA challenge. Those two plus dist 9 would be better if rearranged to provide similar HVAPs.

The case law on this is quite a bit less clear. The specific rumors regarding the south Texas region, as far as I can tell, originate from a Reagan era justice department memo. But, 90%+ VAP legislative districts have existed and been upheld on a frequent basis, including by Justice Breyer when Boston minorities were racked and packed into such districts.

[ElectionsGuy]

Nebraska (Unicameral)



18: 60.3% McCain, 38.3% Obama = Safe R
25: 55.6% McCain, 43.2% Obama = Safe R
26: 54.4% McCain, 43.7% Obama = Likely R
27: 58.3% McCain, 40.3% Obama = Safe R
28: 55.4% McCain, 43.0% Obama = Safe R
29: 59.3% McCain, 38.6% Obama = Safe R
30: 54.2% McCain, 43.7% Obama = Likely R
31: 61.7% McCain, 36.3% Obama = Safe R
32: 63.6% McCain, 34.7% Obama = Safe R
35: 69.2% McCain, 29.3% Obama = Safe R
36: 71.2% McCain, 27.2% Obama = Safe R
37: 69.2% McCain, 29.2% Obama = Safe R
38: 69.2% McCain, 29.3% Obama = Safe R
39: 62.2% McCain, 36.3% Obama = Safe R
40: 64.4% McCain, 34.0% Obama = Safe R
41: 66.8% McCain, 31.2% Obama = Safe R
42: 73.5% McCain, 24.9% Obama = Safe R
43: 75.4% McCain, 23.2% Obama = Safe R
44: 66.1% McCain, 32.3% Obama = Safe R
45: 60.6% McCain, 37.8% Obama = Safe R
46: 66.5% McCain, 32.1% Obama = Safe R
47: 68.3% McCain, 29.4% Obama = Safe R
48: 75.9% McCain, 21.7% Obama = Safe R
49: 71.9% McCain, 26.4% Obama = Safe R

Omaha Area Close-Up:



1: 62.9% Obama, 35.2% McCain = Safe D
2: 55.3% Obama, 42.8% McCain = Lean D
3: 66.1% Obama, 31.7% McCain = Safe D
4: 63.1% Obama, 35.3% McCain = Safe D
5: 90.3% Obama, 9.1% McCain = Safe D
6: 65.4% Obama, 33.2% McCain = Safe D
7: 51.8% Obama, 46.8% McCain = Toss-Up
8: 51.3% McCain, 47.3% Obama = Lean R
9: 51.2% McCain, 47.8% Obama = Lean R
10: 56.6% McCain, 42.3% Obama = Safe R
11: 57.0% McCain, 41.9% Obama = Safe R
12: 60.8% McCain, 38.3% Obama = Safe R
13: 58.1% McCain, 40.9% Obama = Safe R
14: 63.9% McCain, 35.3% Obama = Safe R
15: 53.9% McCain, 44.7% Obama = Likely R
16: 57.7% McCain, 40.9% Obama = Safe R
17: 55.3% McCain, 43.0% Obama = Safe R

Lincoln Close-Up:



19: 70.8% Obama, 26.9% McCain = Safe D
20: 60.8% Obama, 37.4% McCain = Safe D
21: 56.8% Obama, 41.7% McCain = Likely D
22: 54.1% Obama, 44.6% McCain = Lean D
23: 51.0% McCain, 47.8% Obama = Lean R
24: 55.8% McCain, 43.2% Obama = Safe R

Kearney/Grand Island Close-Up:



33: 56.1% McCain, 42.0% Obama = Safe R
34: 67.2% McCain, 31.5% Obama = Safe R

I know its non-partisan, but I'll do partisan numbers for the sake of things here. 38.5/49 R = 78.6% R.

By the way, I know I stopped posting the map. I'll do that just once at the end of this, I don't want to have to post it every single time I do a state.

[ElectionsGuy]

Nevada:



15: 50.2% McCain, 47.5% Obama = Likely R
19: 58.2% McCain, 39.0% Obama = Safe R
20: 53.8% McCain, 43.7% Obama = Safe R
21: 62.2% McCain, 34.4% Obama = Safe R

Las Vegas Area Close-Up:



1: 64.1% Obama, 34.3% McCain = Safe D
2: 79.1% Obama, 19.0% McCain = Safe D
3: 64.5% Obama, 33.1% McCain = Safe D
4: 77.1% Obama, 20.4% McCain = Safe D
5: 65.4% Obama, 32.1% McCain = Safe D
6: 61.4% Obama, 36.4% McCain = Safe D
7: 49.9% Obama, 47.8% McCain = Lean R
8: 52.3% Obama, 46.2% McCain = Toss-Up
9: 57.5% Obama, 40.6% McCain = Likely D
10: 62.0% Obama, 36.0% McCain = Safe D
11: 60.2% Obama, 37.6% McCain = Safe D
12: 64.2% Obama, 33.4% McCain = Safe D
13: 56.0% Obama, 42.0% McCain = Lean D
14: 49.8% McCain, 48.6% Obama = Likely R

Reno Area Close-Up:



16: 65.4% Obama, 32.0% McCain = Safe D
17: 58.5% Obama, 39.2% McCain = Likely D
18: 49.4% McCain, 48.7% Obama = Likely R

13.5/21 D = 64.3% D. Current State Senate is 11-10 D.

[ElectionsGuy]

Utah:



19: 61.9% McCain, 35.3% Obama = Safe R
27: 75.4% McCain, 20.9% Obama = Safe R
28: 75.8% McCain, 19.8% Obama = Safe R
29: 65.5% McCain, 32.0% Obama = Safe R

Salt Lake/Davis Counties Close-Up:



1: 68.1% Obama, 29.0% McCain = Safe D
2: 68.7% Obama, 28.7% McCain = Safe D
3: 58.7% Obama, 38.0% McCain = Likely D
4: 49.7% Obama, 47.9% McCain = Lean R
5: 49.7% McCain, 47.2% Obama = Likely R
6: 49.2% McCain, 47.9% Obama = Likely R
7: 51.3% McCain, 45.9% Obama = Likely R
8: 54.0% McCain, 43.1% Obama = Safe R
9: 58.7% McCain, 38.4% Obama = Safe R
10: 68.7% McCain, 28.7% Obama = Safe R
11: 65.8% McCain, 31.8% Obama = Safe R
12: 68.4% McCain, 28.8% Obama = Safe R
13: 71.4% McCain, 25.9% Obama = Safe R
14: 69.5% McCain, 27.5% Obama = Safe R
15: 63.7% McCain, 33.9% Obama = Safe R

Utah County Close-Up:



20: 77.1% McCain, 20.1% Obama = Safe R
21: 79.7% McCain, 17.1% Obama = Safe R
22: 75.9% McCain, 20.4% Obama = Safe R
23: 72.3% McCain, 24.0% Obama = Safe R
24: 78.7% McCain, 17.9% Obama = Safe R
25: 69.0% McCain, 27.3% Obama = Safe R

Northern Utah Close-Up:



16: 53.7% McCain, 43.4% Obama = Safe R
17: 76.4% McCain, 21.2% Obama = Safe R
18: 69.7% McCain, 25.8% Obama = Safe R

St. George Close-Up:



26: 75.7% McCain, 21.8% Obama = Safe R

26/29 R = 89.7% R. The current state senate is 24-5 R.

[ElectionsGuy]

Kansas:



23: 54.5% McCain, 43.3% Obama = Safe R
24: 61.2% McCain, 36.7% Obama = Safe R
25: 62.9% McCain, 35.1% Obama = Safe R
26: 65.6% McCain, 32.3% Obama = Safe R
27: 64.8% McCain, 33.1% Obama = Safe R
28: 65.1% McCain, 32.7% Obama = Safe R
29: 63.2% McCain, 35.2% Obama = Safe R
30: 55.2% McCain, 42.9% Obama = Safe R
31: 52.7% McCain, 45.6% Obama = Likely R
32: 58.8% McCain, 39.1% Obama = Safe R
33: 63.7% McCain, 34.4% Obama = Safe R
34: 70.6% McCain, 27.1% Obama = Safe R
35: 61.7% McCain, 36.3% Obama = Safe R
36: 70.6% McCain, 27.9% Obama = Safe R
37: 71.8% McCain, 26.2% Obama = Safe R
38: 74.3% McCain, 23.7% Obama = Safe R
39: 74.3% McCain, 24.3% Obama = Safe R
40: 73.6% McCain, 24.7% Obama = Safe R

Kansas City/Lawrence/Topeka/Johnson County Close-Up:



1: 66.0% Obama, 32.0% McCain = Safe D
2: 76.8% Obama, 22.2% McCain = Safe D
3: 55.2% Obama, 43.1% McCain = Lean D
4: 49.5% Obama, 49.2% McCain = Lean R
5: 53.8% McCain, 44.9% Obama = Likely R
6: 53.9% McCain, 44.9% Obama = Likely R
7: 56.6% McCain, 42.5% Obama = Safe R
8: 54.0% McCain, 44.4% Obama = Safe R
9: 59.5% McCain, 38.9% Obama = Safe R
10: 63.8% McCain, 35.2% Obama = Safe R
11: 72.1% Obama, 25.7% McCain = Safe D
12: 62.0% Obama, 35.9% McCain = Safe D
13: 54.2% McCain, 44.2% Obama = Safe R
14: 51.3% McCain, 47.1% Obama = Likely R
15: 54.9% McCain, 43.4% Obama = Safe R

Wichita Close-Up:



16: 72.1% Obama, 26.2% McCain = Safe D
17: 50.9% McCain, 46.7% Obama = Likely R
18: 51.9% Obama, 46.1% McCain = Toss-Up
19: 59.8% McCain, 38.6% Obama = Safe R
20: 61.8% McCain, 36.5% Obama = Safe R
21: 63.3% McCain, 35.1% Obama = Safe R
22: 66.8% McCain, 31.2% Obama = Safe R

33.5/40 R = 83.7% R The current state senate is at 32-8.

[ElectionsGuy]

New Mexico:



24: 77.8% Obama, 21.1% McCain = Safe D
25: 76.2% Obama, 22.7% McCain = Safe D
26: 51.4% McCain, 47.4% Obama = Likely R
27: 70.2% Obama, 28.5% McCain = Safe D
28: 68.8% Obama, 30.2% McCain = Safe D
29: 62.9% Obama, 35.8% McCain = Safe D
32: 55.6% Obama, 42.9% McCain = Lean D
35: 53.5% Obama, 44.5% McCain = Toss-Up
40: 68.6% McCain, 30.2% Obama = Safe R

Albuquerque Close-Up:



3: 66.5% Obama, 32.3% McCain = Safe D
4: 72.1% Obama, 27.0% McCain = Safe D
5: 79.5% Obama, 19.4% McCain = Safe D
6: 70.0% Obama, 28.9% McCain = Safe D
7: 77.0% Obama, 21.4% McCain = Safe D
8: 74.3% Obama, 24.0% McCain = Safe D
9: 64.6% Obama, 33.8% McCain = Safe D
10: 55.3% Obama, 43.7% McCain = Lean D
11: 52.5% Obama, 46.3% McCain = Toss-Up
12: 53.4% McCain, 45.6% Obama = Safe R
13: 52.2% Obama, 46.4% McCain = Toss-Up
14: 55.2% Obama, 43.3% McCain = Lean D
15: 53.2% McCain, 45.4% Obama = Safe R

Farmington Close-Up:



1: 68.5% McCain, 30.3% Obama = Safe R
2: 69.5% McCain, 29.0% Obama = Safe R

Las Cruces Close-Up:



30: 64.2% Obama, 34.1% McCain = Safe D
31: 72.3% Obama, 26.9% McCain = Safe D
33: 53.4% Obama, 45.1% McCain = Toss-Up
34: 50.3% Obama, 48.5% McCain = Lean R

Santa Fe Close-Up:



18: 82.1% Obama, 16.7% McCain = Safe D
20: 53.4% Obama, 45.4% McCain = Toss-Up
21: 64.0% Obama, 34.6% McCain = Safe D
22: 78.5% Obama, 20.3% McCain = Safe D
23: 72.6% Obama, 26.3% McCain = Safe D

Roswell/Clovis:



36: 61.6% McCain, 37.0% Obama = Safe R
39: 60.6% McCain, 38.2% Obama = Safe R

Southeast New Mexico:



37: 62.0% McCain, 36.7% Obama = Safe R
38: 70.3% McCain, 28.7% Obama = Safe R
41: 59.0% McCain, 39.3% Obama = Safe R
42: 56.0% McCain, 42.5% Obama = Safe R

Grand Albuquerque Area:



16: 50.7% McCain, 47.8% Obama = Likely R
17: 52.1% Obama, 46.4% McCain = Toss-Up
19: 50.5% McCain, 48.1% Obama = Likely R

24/42 = 57.1% D

[ElectionsGuy]

Arkansas:



8: 71.8% McCain, 25.4% Obama = Safe R
16: 62.5% McCain, 35.1% Obama = Safe R
17: 61.4% McCain, 36.7% Obama = Safe R
18: 67.3% McCain, 29.4% Obama = Safe R
19: 55.8% McCain, 41.6% Obama = Likely R
21: 67.1% McCain, 30.0% Obama = Safe R
22: 59.7% Obama, 38.8% McCain = Safe D
24: 62.1% McCain, 35.3% Obama = Safe R
29: 64.5% McCain, 32.5% Obama = Safe R
30: 68.9% McCain, 27.8% Obama = Safe R
31: 63.9% McCain, 32.4% Obama = Safe R
32: 66.3% McCain, 30.3% Obama = Safe R
33: 63.7% McCain, 33.1% Obama = Safe R
34: 58.1% McCain, 37.7% Obama = Safe R
35: 64.9% McCain, 32.0% Obama = Safe R

Northwest Close-Up:



1: 68.5% McCain, 29.4% Obama = Safe R
2: 63.6% McCain, 34.1% Obama = Safe R
3: 68.4% McCain, 29.7% Obama = Safe R
4: 53.0% Obama, 45.1% McCain = Likely D
5: 64.3% McCain, 33.6% Obama = Safe R
6: 69.8% McCain, 27.2% Obama = Safe R
7: 61.0% McCain, 37.1% Obama = Safe R

Little Rock Inner Close-Up:



9: 79.8% Obama, 18.8% McCain = Safe D
10: 72.3% Obama, 26.5% McCain = Safe D
11: 50.8% McCain, 47.7% Obama = Toss-Up
12: 61.6% McCain, 36.7% Obama = Safe R
13: 64.1% McCain, 33.9% Obama = Safe R
27: 56.6% McCain, 41.5% Obama = Safe R

Little Rock Outer Close-Up:



14: 60.7% McCain, 37.0% Obama = Safe R
15: 62.5% Obama, 35.4% McCain = Safe D
20: 66.7% McCain, 31.3% Obama = Safe R
25: 75.6% McCain, 22.2% Obama = Safe R

Northeast Close-Up:



23: 52.0% Obama, 45.9% McCain = Likely D
26: 60.5% McCain, 37.2% Obama = Safe R
28: 60.2% McCain, 36.6% Obama = Safe R

28.5/35 R = 81.4% R. The current makeup is 24-11 R.

[JerryArkansas]

Arkansas:



8: 71.8% McCain, 25.4% Obama
16: 62.5% McCain, 35.1% Obama
17: 61.4% McCain, 36.7% Obama
18: 67.3% McCain, 29.4% Obama
19: 55.8% McCain, 41.6% Obama
21: 67.1% McCain, 30.0% Obama
22: 59.7% Obama, 38.8% McCain
24: 62.1% McCain, 35.3% Obama
29: 64.5% McCain, 32.5% Obama
30: 68.9% McCain, 27.8% Obama
31: 63.9% McCain, 32.4% Obama
32: 66.3% McCain, 30.3% Obama
33: 63.7% McCain, 33.1% Obama
34: 58.1% McCain, 37.7% Obama
35: 64.9% McCain, 32.0% Obama

Northwest Close-Up:



1: 68.5% McCain, 29.4% Obama
2: 63.6% McCain, 34.1% Obama
3: 68.4% McCain, 29.7% Obama
4: 53.0% Obama, 45.1% McCain
5: 64.3% McCain, 33.6% Obama
6: 69.8% McCain, 27.2% Obama
7: 61.0% McCain, 37.1% Obama

Little Rock Inner Close-Up:



9: 79.8% Obama, 18.8% McCain
10: 72.3% Obama, 26.5% McCain
11: 50.8% McCain, 47.7% Obama
12: 61.6% McCain, 36.7% Obama
13: 64.1% McCain, 33.9% Obama
27: 56.6% McCain, 41.5% Obama

Little Rock Outer Close-Up:



14: 60.7% McCain, 37.0% Obama
15: 62.5% Obama, 35.4% McCain
20: 66.7% McCain, 31.3% Obama
25: 75.6% McCain, 22.2% Obama

Northeast Close-Up:



23: 52.0% Obama, 45.9% McCain
26: 60.5% McCain, 37.2% Obama
28: 60.2% McCain, 36.6% Obama

I'll let Jerry assess this.

All districts bolded I would expect to be won by the democratic candidate.  That would bring the partisan breakdown to 19/16 Democratic.  Districts I have labeled in Brown will by 2020 become competitive due to Hispanic growth.  I expect that map makers in 2020 will have to draw a Hispanic Majority Senate district and 2 House districts by then due to the growth.

[ElectionsGuy]

Jerry, you've always been too generous to democrats in Arkansas. You do realize the state senate currently is 22/13 and getting more republican every couple of years? I expect democrats to win some of those McCain districts for sure, but not many of those going >60%. Southern and Northeastern Arkansas have old democratic roots, but as demonstrated by the recent special election, another one of those red democratic seat holders is now gone (something like the 26 on my map). There is a clear trend here, and I don't think its just because of Obama.

Anyway, I would just take away 18, 21, 24, 31, 12, and maybe 16 from your list of democratic seats. I suppose I'll settle the % and partisan control a bit later.

[JerryArkansas]

Jerry, you've always been too generous to democrats in Arkansas. You do realize the state senate currently is 22/13 and getting more republican every couple of years? I expect democrats to win some of those McCain districts for sure, but not many of those going >60%. Southern and Northeastern Arkansas have old democratic roots, but as demonstrated by the recent special election, another one of those red democratic seat holders is now gone (something like the 26 on my map). There is a clear trend here, and I don't think its just because of Obama.

Anyway, I would just take away 18, 21, 24, 31, 12, and maybe 16 from your list of democratic seats. I suppose I'll settle the % and partisan control a bit later.

18 keep, that one is almost the same as a current district which is already in the camber, that is why I have it for dems.  I will concede the others except for the 16th.  I do realize how Republican it is at the moment, but the democratic party still exists and until the old generation dies, they will be competive.

[Sol]

How much to Latinos in NW Arkansas vote? In 2020, AR may prefer to draw one heavily Latino district that will for sure elect a candidate of choice.

[JerryArkansas]

How much to Latinos in NW Arkansas vote? In 2020, AR may prefer to draw one heavily Latino district that will for sure elect a candidate of choice.

They hardly vote at all.  I drew a senate district which was 40% Hispanic and it was 65% McCain.  So, they are either not voting, or are very Republican, and the former is more likely.

[Sol]

How much to Latinos in NW Arkansas vote? In 2020, AR may prefer to draw one heavily Latino district that will for sure elect a candidate of choice.

They hardly vote at all.  I drew a senate district which was 40% Hispanic and it was 65% McCain.  So, they are either not voting, or are very Republican, and the former is more likely.

Yeah, they'll probably want to pack it to be very Latino then, to insulate them from a legal challenge.

[JerryArkansas]

How much to Latinos in NW Arkansas vote? In 2020, AR may prefer to draw one heavily Latino district that will for sure elect a candidate of choice.

They hardly vote at all.  I drew a senate district which was 40% Hispanic and it was 65% McCain.  So, they are either not voting, or are very Republican, and the former is more likely.

Yeah, they'll probably want to pack it to be very Latino then, to insulate them from a legal challenge.

If Republicans are in control, then yes they will.

[publicunofficial]

Here's a fair Washington State Senate I made, borrowing heavily from a few diaries on DKE.

Washington:


Seattle:


Tacoma/Olympia:


Snohomish


Spokane:


Vancouver


Tri-Cities:


Yakima:




SD-01 (Bothel): Obama 62% Safe D
SD-02 (Spanaway): McCain 51.3% Safe R
SD-03 (Spokane): Obama 54% Toss-Up
SD-04 (Spokane Valley): McCain 54.7% Safe R
SD-05 (Issaquah): Obama 59% Toss-Up
SD-06 (Spokane): Obama 54.2% Toss-Up
SD-07 (Okanogan Highlands): McCain 57% Safe R
SD-08 (Kennewick-Richland): McCain 61.7% Safe R
SD-09 (Pasco): McCain 62.5% Safe R
SD-10 (Bellingham): Obama 66.7% Safe D
SD-11 (Renton): Obama 65% Safe D
SD-12 (Wenatchee-Ellensburg): McCain 55% Safe R
SD-13 (Moses Lake): McCain 61.6% Safe R
SD-14 (Yakima): Obama 53.3% Toss-Up
SD-15 (Sunnyside-Tieton): McCain 60.2% Safe R
SD-16 (Walla Walla-Pullman): McCain 54.8% Safe R
SD-17 (East Vancouver): Obama 53.3% Lean R
SD-18 (Battle Ground): McCain 52.5% Safe R
SD-19 (Longview): Obama 53.7% Toss-Up
SD-20 (Centralia): McCain 53% Safe R
SD-21 (Everett): Obama 62.6% Safe D
SD-22 (Olympia): Obama 64.3% Safe D
SD-23 (Bainbridge Island-Paulsbo): Obama 57.2% Lean D
SD-24 (Olympic Peninsula): Obama 56.1% Lean D
SD-25 (Puyallup): Obama 51.2% Lean R
SD-26 (Bremerton): Obama 51.8% Toss-Up
SD-27 (North Tacoma-Gig Harbor): Obama 60.8%
SD-28 (Lakewood): Obama 57.3% Toss-Up
SD-29 (Tacoma): Obama 66.5% Safe D
SD-30 (Federal Way): Obama 60.2% Likely D
SD-31 (Enumclaw): Obama 50.1% Likely R
SD-32 (Edmonds): Obama 65.3% Safe D
SD-33 (SeaTac): Obama 68.3% Safe D
SD-34 (Vashon-Southwest Seattle): Obama 80.4% Safe D
SD-35 (Shelton): Obama 56.1% Lean D
SD-36 (Northwest Seattle): Obama 84.5% Safe D
SD-37 (Southeast Seattle): Obama 87.7% Safe D
SD-38 (Marysville): Obama 52.5% Toss-Up
SD-39 (Monroe): Obama 53% Lean R
SD-40 (San Juan Islands-Oak Harbor): Obama 55.8% Lean D
SD-41 (Kent-Covington): 60.1% Likely D
SD-42 (Lynden): McCain 51.5% Safe R
SD-43 (Northeast Seattle): Obama 87.3% Safe D
SD-44 (Lake Stevens): Obama 57.8% Toss-Up
SD-45 (Kirkland-Redmond): Obama 65.3% Likely D
SD-46 (Shoreline): Obama 77.5% Safe D
SD-47 (Auburn): Obama 53.1% Lean R
SD-48 (Bellevue-Mercer Island): Obama 63.8% Toss-Up
SD-49 (Vancouver): Obama 58.9% Likely D

21 Democrat, 16 Republican, 12 Toss-Ups

The current WA Senate is 23 Democrats, 26 Republicans/Traitor Democrats.

[ElectionsGuy]

Iowa:



9: 51.1% McCain, 46.9% Obama = Likely R
12: 51.0% McCain, 47.1% Obama = Likely R
20: 49.4% McCain, 49.1% Obama = Lean R
22: 62.5% Obama, 36.0% McCain = Safe D
23: 57.4% Obama, 41.1% McCain = Likely D
24: 57.0% Obama, 41.3% McCain = Likely D
25: 59.5% Obama, 38.6% McCain = Safe D
29: 55.0% Obama, 42.3% McCain = Likely D
30: 49.0% Obama, 48.8% McCain = Lean R
31: 50.6% McCain, 47.5% Obama = Lean R
32: 49.4% McCain, 48.8% Obama = Lean R
33: 54.5% Obama, 44.0% McCain = Lean D
34: 50.1% McCain, 47.6% Obama = Lean R
35: 55.9% McCain, 42.6% Obama = Safe R
36: 55.6% McCain, 42.8% Obama = Safe R
37: 52.0% Obama, 46.0% McCain = Toss-Up
38: 54.0% Obama, 44.5% McCain = Lean D
39: 59.6% Obama, 38.7% McCain = Safe D
40: 59.0% Obama, 39.5% McCain = Safe D
41: 55.9% Obama, 42.4% McCain = Likely D
42: 52.0% McCain, 46.4% Obama = Likely R
43: 51.6% Obama, 46.6% McCain = Toss-Up
44: 49.5% McCain, 48.9% Obama = Lean R
45: 49.8% Obama, 48.2% McCain = Toss-Up
46: 55.0% McCain, 43.6% Obama = Safe R
47: 49.8% McCain, 48.4% Obama = Lean R
48: 51.0% McCain, 47.6% Obama = Likely R
49: 74.3% McCain, 24.8% Obama = Safe R
50: 60.0% McCain, 38.6% Obama = Safe R

Des Moines Close-Up:



1: 65.8% Obama, 32.3% McCain = Safe D
2: 67.8% Obama, 30.3% McCain = Safe D
3: 63.7% Obama, 34.5% McCain = Safe D
4: 61.3% Obama, 37.0% McCain = Safe D
5: 50.9% McCain, 47.6% Obama = Lean R
6: 51.4% McCain, 46.9% Obama = Lean R
7: 52.2% Obama, 45.9% McCain = Lean D
8: 53.0% McCain, 45.7% Obama = Likely R

Council Bluffs Close-Up:



11: 54.3% Obama, 44.2% McCain = Lean D

Sioux City Close-Up:



28: 57.0% Obama, 41.4% McCain = Likely D

Cedar Rapids/Iowa City Close-Up:



13: 67.9% Obama, 30.6% McCain = Safe D
14: 60.3% Obama, 38.2% McCain = Safe D
15: 53.1% Obama, 45.4% McCain = Lean D
16: 75.2% Obama, 23.0% McCain = Safe D
17: 64.8% Obama, 33.7% McCain = Safe D

Davenport Close-Up:



18: 55.4% Obama, 43.5% McCain = Likely D
19: 65.4% Obama, 33.2% McCain = Safe D

Dubuque Close-Up:



21: 63.1% Obama, 35.5% McCain = Safe D

Waterloo Close-Up:



26: 67.9% Obama, 30.7% McCain = Safe D
27: 55.8% Obama, 42.7% McCain = Likely D

Ames Close-Up:



10: 61.7% Obama, 35.9% McCain = Safe D

29.5/50 = 59% D

[muon2]

How did your IA map end up more D than the neutral map actually adopted? The current numbers are 26 D - 24 R.

[ElectionsGuy]

How did your IA map end up more D than the neutral map actually adopted? The current numbers are 26 D - 24 R.

I don't know, its just the way it turned out, I guess. I don't take sides when drawing these, but I try to group together areas and counties that are similar to each other.

[muon2]

How did your IA map end up more D than the neutral map actually adopted? The current numbers are 26 D - 24 R.

I don't know, its just the way it turned out, I guess. I don't take sides when drawing these, but I try to group together areas and counties that are similar to each other.

I suspect it's some of the same effect seen elsewhere in the Midwest using 2008 numbers. A 52% Obama district is really lean R, a 53% Obama district is a tossup, and a 54% Obama district is lean D. That would move your 37, 43, and 45 from tossup to lean R, and 7 from lean D to lean R, and 15 from lean D to tossup. That is a shift from 29.5 D to 26.5 D which is a close match to the current composition.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm reviving this thread from the dead. I'm going to continue it.

[ElectionsGuy]

Northern Mississipppi:



1. 63.3% McCain, 36.0% Obama = Safe R
2. 72.4% McCain, 26.8% Obama = Safe R
3. 66.4% McCain, 32.8% Obama = Safe R
4. 54.6% Obama, 44.5% McCain = Likely D
5. 70.9% McCain, 27.5% Obama = Safe R
6. 73.4% McCain, 24.4% Obama = Safe R
7. 58.9% McCain, 40.4% Obama = Safe R
8. 76.8% McCain, 22.1% Obama = Safe R
9. 58.4% Obama, 40.9% McCain = Safe D
10. 69.5% Obama, 29.7% McCain = Safe D
11. 75.0% McCain, 23.8% Obama = Safe R
12. 57.8% McCain, 41.3% Obama = Safe R
13. 51.0% McCain, 48.1% Obama = Lean R
14. 49.9% Obama, 49.3% McCain = Toss-Up
15. 53.5% Obama, 45.7% McCain = Likely D
16. 59.5% McCain, 39.9% Obama = Safe R
17. 67.4% Obama, 32.1% McCain = Safe D
18. 62.8% Obama, 36.6% McCain = Safe D

Southern Mississippi:



19. 74.1% Obama, 25.2% McCain = Safe D
20. 51.3% Obama, 48.2% McCain = Lean D
21. 64.7% Obama, 34.8% McCain = Safe D
29. 55.7% McCain, 43.7% Obama = Safe R
30. 51.5% McCain, 47.8% Obama = Lean R
31. 55.5% McCain, 43.9% Obama = Safe R
32. 65.0% McCain, 34.3% Obama = Safe R
34. 59.9% McCain, 39.4% Obama = Safe R
35. 69.3% Obama, 30.0% McCain = Safe D
36. 51.8% McCain, 47.4% Obama = Lean R
37. 51.3% McCain, 47.8% Obama = Lean R
38. 60.8% McCain, 38.5% Obama = Safe R
39. 52.2% Obama, 46.7% McCain = Likely D
40. 68.3% McCain, 30.8% Obama = Safe R
41. 58.2% McCain, 41.1% Obama = Safe R
42. 78.1% McCain, 20.9% Obama = Safe R
43. 66.7% McCain, 32.6% Obama = Safe R
44. 70.0% McCain, 28.9% Obama = Safe R
51. 77.5% McCain, 21.4% Obama = Safe R
52. 83.6% McCain, 15.3% Obama = Safe R

Jackson Close-Up:



22. 71.2% McCain, 28.2% Obama = Safe R
23. 67.2% McCain, 31.9% Obama = Safe R
24. 95.9% Obama, 3.7% McCain = Safe D
25. 93.7% Obama, 6.0% McCain = Safe D
26. 57.5% McCain, 41.9% Obama = Safe R
27. 74.4% McCain, 24.7% Obama = Safe R
28. 55.4% McCain, 43.9% Obama = Safe R
33. 70.0% McCain, 29.2% Obama = Safe R

Gulf Coast Close-Up:



45. 53.4% Obama, 45.8% McCain = Likely D
46. 51.5% McCain, 47.6% Obama = Lean R
47. 64.7% McCain, 34.4% Obama = Safe R
48. 74.0% McCain, 24.9% Obama = Safe R
49. 72.2% McCain, 26.9% Obama = Safe R
50. 77.9% McCain, 20.5% Obama = Safe R

37.5/52 R = 72.1% R

[ElectionsGuy]

Oklahoma:



16: 83.9% McCain, 16.1% Obama = Safe R
27: 65.8% McCain, 34.2% Obama = Safe R
28: 65.6% McCain, 34.4% Obama = Safe R
29: 64.4% McCain, 35.6% Obama = Safe R
30: 57.9% McCain, 42.1% Obama = Safe R
31: 62.7% McCain, 37.3% Obama = Safe R
32: 69.9% McCain, 30.1% Obama = Safe R
33: 71.0% McCain, 29.0% Obama = Safe R
34: 59.6% McCain, 40.4% Obama = Safe R
35: 68.2% McCain, 31.8% Obama = Safe R
36: 70.4% McCain, 29.6% Obama = Safe R
37: 68.6% McCain, 31.4% Obama = Safe R
38: 69.9% McCain, 30.1% Obama = Safe R
40: 72.6% McCain, 27.4% Obama = Safe R
41: 68.3% McCain, 31.7% Obama = Safe R
42: 66.1% McCain, 33.9% Obama = Safe R
43: 67.7% McCain, 32.3% Obama = Safe R
44: 73.6% McCain, 26.4% Obama = Safe R
45: 64.1% McCain, 35.9% Obama = Safe R
46: 77.8% McCain, 22.2% Obama = Safe R
47: 76.3% McCain, 23.7% Obama = Safe R
48: 71.8% McCain, 28.2% Obama = Safe R

OKC Close-Up:



1: 78.5% Obama, 21.5% McCain = Safe D
2: 55.5% Obama, 44.5% McCain = Likely D
3: 57.3% McCain, 42.7% Obama = Safe R
4: 53.3% McCain, 46.7% Obama = Lean R
5: 64.1% McCain, 35.9% Obama = Safe R
6: 62.7% McCain, 37.3% Obama = Safe R
7: 66.7% McCain, 33.3% Obama = Safe R
8: 69.6% McCain, 30.4% Obama = Safe R
9: 70.2% McCain, 29.8% Obama = Safe R
10: 71.0% McCain, 29.0% Obama = Safe R
11: 70.1% McCain, 29.9% Obama = Safe R
12: 50.6% Obama, 49.4% McCain = Toss-Up
13: 63.3% McCain, 36.7% Obama = Safe R
14: 76.4% McCain, 23.6% Obama = Safe R
15: 75.8% McCain, 24.2% Obama = Safe R

Tulsa Close-Up:



17: 72.5% Obama, 27.5% McCain = Safe D
18: 55.2% McCain, 44.8% Obama = Likely R
19: 56.7% McCain, 43.3% Obama = Safe R
20: 69.2% McCain, 30.8% Obama = Safe R
21: 68.6% McCain, 31.4% Obama = Safe R
22: 64.8% McCain, 35.2% Obama = Safe R
23: 73.4% McCain, 26.6% Obama = Safe R
24: 74.7% McCain, 25.3% Obama = Safe R
25: 72.1% McCain, 27.9% Obama = Safe R
26: 72.5% McCain, 27.5% Obama = Safe R

Lawton Close-Up:



39: 54.0% McCain, 46.0% Obama = Likely R

44.5/48 = 92.7% R. The current state senate is 40-8 R.

[ElectionsGuy]

Louisiana:



2: 59.1% McCain, 40.1% Obama = Safe R
5: 58.5% McCain, 40.5% Obama = Safe R
6: 57.8% McCain, 40.9% Obama = Safe R
7: 70.5% McCain, 28.3% Obama = Safe R
8: 75.4% McCain, 23.2% Obama = Safe R
9: 62.2% McCain, 36.5% Obama = Safe R
12: 75.7% McCain, 22.2% Obama = Safe R
13: 72.3% McCain, 25.8% Obama = Safe R
15: 55.2% McCain, 43.4% Obama = Likely R
16: 69.3% McCain, 28.6% Obama = Safe R
17: 52.7% McCain, 45.9% Obama = Lean R
18: 64.6% McCain, 33.7% Obama = Safe R
19: 53.9% McCain, 44.5% Obama = Lean R
20: 61.9% McCain, 36.2% Obama = Safe R
21: 73.2% McCain, 23.8% Obama = Safe R
26: 51.8% Obama, 46.7% McCain = Lean D
27: 76.0% McCain, 22.3% Obama = Safe R
28: 67.0% McCain, 30.9% Obama = Safe R
35: 77.3% McCain, 21.1% Obama = Safe R
36: 71.6% McCain, 26.8% Obama = Safe R
37: 72.7% McCain, 25.6% Obama = Safe R
38: 74.7% McCain, 23.6% Obama = Safe R
39: 65.3% McCain, 33.2% Obama = Safe R

Shreveport Close-Up:



1: 69.0% Obama, 30.2% McCain = Safe D
3: 72.3% McCain, 26.8% Obama = Safe R

Monroe Close-Up:



4: 54.1% McCain, 44.9% Obama = Likely R

Lake Charles Close-Up:



10: 52.5% McCain, 46.0% Obama = Lean R

Lafayette Close-Up:



11: 52.1% McCain, 46.3% Obama = Lean R
14: 75.5% McCain, 23.0% Obama = Safe R

Baton Rouge Close-Up:



22: 78.0% Obama, 21.4% McCain = Safe D
23: 66.7% Obama, 32.0% McCain = Safe D
24: 69.3% McCain, 29.3% Obama = Safe R
25: 75.3% McCain, 23.3% Obama = Safe R

New Orleans Close-Up:



29: 91.2% Obama, 8.0% McCain = Safe D
30: 78.7% Obama, 19.6% McCain = Safe D
31: 71.4% Obama, 26.7% McCain = Safe D
32: 50.3% McCain, 48.4% Obama = Toss-Up
33: 53.1% McCain, 45.3% Obama = Lean R
34: 75.7% McCain, 22.6% Obama = Safe R

31.5/39 = 80.8% R. The current makeup is 26-13 R.