EG's State Senate Thread

[ElectionsGuy]

I will be putting together districts for each state's state senate. I'm only doing the senate to simplify things (plus, I'm not going to draw 400 districts in New Hampshire ). I will start off with the lowest populated states and increase. Wyoming first, Texas and California last. Feel free to jump in and do some as well.

Wyoming:



4: 65.8% McCain, 32.5% Obama = Safe R
5: 70.0% McCain, 27.9% Obama = Safe R
7: 52.6% McCain, 45.2% Obama = Likely R
11: 71.0% McCain, 27.0% Obama = Safe R
12: 64.1% McCain, 33.7% Obama = Safe R
15: 68.7% McCain, 28.5% Obama = Safe R
16: 77.8% McCain, 19.6% Obama = Safe R
17: 51.6% McCain, 46.2% Obama = Lean R
18: 73.1% McCain, 24.7% Obama = Safe R
19: 64.7% McCain, 33.0% Obama = Safe R
20: 77.6% McCain, 20.5% Obama = Safe R
23: 80.8% McCain, 16.9% Obama = Safe R
25: 75.3% McCain, 22.9% Obama = Safe R
26: 74.1% McCain, 24.0% Obama = Safe R
27: 72.8% McCain, 25.2% Obama = Safe R
28: 73.6% McCain, 24.2% Obama = Safe R
29: 69.4% McCain, 28.6% Obama = Safe R
30: 62.6% Obama, 35.6% McCain = Safe D

Cheyenne Close-Up:



1: 50.9% Obama, 46.6% McCain = Lean D
2: 54.7% McCain, 43.0% Obama = Likely R
3: 61.2% McCain, 37.4% Obama = Safe R

Casper Close-Up:



8: 57.3% McCain, 40.1% Obama = Safe R
9: 68.6% McCain, 29.9% Obama = Safe R
10: 67.9% McCain, 30.1% Obama = Safe R

Gillette Close-Up:



21: 78.4% McCain, 20.1% Obama = Safe R
22: 78.9% McCain, 19.5% Obama = Safe R

Sheridan Close-Up:



24: 66.3% McCain, 31.8% Obama = Safe R

Green River/Rock Springs Close-Up:



13: 59.4% McCain, 37.8% Obama = Safe R
14: 61.1% McCain, 36.1% Obama = Safe R

Laramie Close-Up:



6: 57.6% Obama, 39.8% McCain = Likely D

Overall that's 27/3 republican and the State Senate overall would be Safe R. The current state Senate is 26/4, so that's pretty close. 24 Safe R, 2 Likely R, 1 Lean R, 1 Lean D, 1 Likely D, and 1 Safe D.

[ElectionsGuy]

As always, my question is what criteria are you applying?

For the numbers (the 27/3, for instance)? The rankings, which, are sometimes hard to judge, but do much better than just '08 numbers.

Otherwise I'm not sure what your talking about. I'm just drawing state senate districts.

[ElectionsGuy]

As always, my question is what criteria are you applying?

For the numbers (the 27/3, for instance)? The rankings, which, are sometimes hard to judge, but do much better than just '08 numbers.

Otherwise I'm not sure what your talking about. I'm just drawing state senate districts.

By criteria I include compactness, erosity, respect for county and/or municipal boundaries, level of population inequality, competitiveness, partisan skew (or lack thereof), VRA, and lots of others that have been used on maps in the past. Fair maps are based on criteria, but there are lots of options out there. Without criteria there's little to prevent gerrymandering, which can be subtle.

OK, by your description, I'll be doing it with pretty loose standards or criteria. I'll try to take municipal and county lines into consideration, but I'm not going to take a long time just to figure out how to perfectly draw districts. I'll try to keep deviation as low as possible (below 1,000 most of the time), and I'll also try to make it fair for the VRA. But I don't really care for compactness, erosity, or anything else. I'll be trying to make the maps as fair and non-partisan as possible.

[ElectionsGuy]

Vermont:



Burlington Close-Up



1: 86.6% Obama, 11.7% McCain = Safe D
2: 80.4% Obama, 17.5% McCain = Safe D
3: 71.5% Obama, 27.3% McCain = Safe D
4: 67.7% Obama, 30.9% McCain = Safe D
5: 65.2% Obama, 33.7% McCain = Safe D
6: 69.6% Obama, 29.2% McCain = Safe D

Northern Vermont:



7: 59.3% Obama, 39.0% McCain = Safe D
8: 62.5% Obama, 36.3% McCain = Safe D
9: 62.1% Obama, 36.1% McCain = Safe D
10: 61.4% Obama, 36.8% McCain = Safe D
11: 58.2% Obama, 39.7% McCain = Likely D
12: 64.0% Obama, 34.0% McCain = Safe D
13: 68.7% Obama, 29.9% McCain = Safe D
14: 70.9% Obama, 27.7% McCain = Safe D
15: 76.4% Obama, 22.1% McCain = Safe D
16: 65.9% Obama, 32.1% McCain = Safe D
17: 59.5% Obama, 38.6% McCain = Safe D
18: 66.3% Obama, 31.6% McCain = Safe D
19: 66.2% Obama, 32.3% McCain = Safe D
29: 71.9% Obama, 26.5% McCain = Safe D

Southern Vermont:



20: 77.2% Obama, 21.3% McCain = Safe D
21: 67.8% Obama, 30.1% McCain = Safe D
22: 70.0% Obama, 28.0% McCain = Safe D
23: 64.2% Obama, 34.1% McCain = Safe D
24: 64.4% Obama, 33.8% McCain = Safe D
25: 73.7% Obama, 25.0% McCain = Safe D
26: 59.9% Obama, 38.1% McCain = Safe D
27: 62.3% Obama, 36.3% McCain = Safe D
28: 70.5% Obama, 27.8% McCain = Safe D
30: 62.0% Obama, 36.2% McCain = Safe D

All Obama obviously, McCain didn't even get 40% in any of them. Of course there's obviously a problem, local republicans can win in many of these districts, but for our purposes, this is 100% D, 29 Safe D, 1 Likely.

As always, my question is what criteria are you applying?

For the numbers (the 27/3, for instance)? The rankings, which, are sometimes hard to judge, but do much better than just '08 numbers.

Otherwise I'm not sure what your talking about. I'm just drawing state senate districts.

By criteria I include compactness, erosity, respect for county and/or municipal boundaries, level of population inequality, competitiveness, partisan skew (or lack thereof), VRA, and lots of others that have been used on maps in the past. Fair maps are based on criteria, but there are lots of options out there. Without criteria there's little to prevent gerrymandering, which can be subtle.

OK, by your description, I'll be doing it with pretty loose standards or criteria. I'll try to take municipal and county lines into consideration, but I'm not going to take a long time just to figure out how to perfectly draw districts. I'll try to keep deviation as low as possible (below 1,000 most of the time), and I'll also try to make it fair for the VRA. But I don't really care for compactness, erosity, or anything else. I'll be trying to make the maps as fair and non-partisan as possible.

But without strong criteria to test the proposals, how should we judge if they are fair?

I suppose you can judge for yourself or feel free to make recommendations or corrections. I'm sorry, but I just want to do this for fun. You can create your own maps with your own standards to make it more fair if that makes you feel better.

[ElectionsGuy]

I thought that Wisconsin was a gerrymander

That is actually much fairer then the current maps.

EG, what's your thoughts on my Wisconsin map. I've actually been working on this for almost a year. Being a fellow Wisconsinite and on the opposite political spectrum, I'd love to know what you think.

I think they're very fair. I actually think the ratings are a bit more D than you say sometimes. (Example: 23 I would consider Lean R instead of Likely R).

I thought that Wisconsin was a gerrymander

Here's the real map:

http://legis.wisconsin.gov/ltsb/redistricting/PDFs/Senate_2013_poster.pdf

Hello Electionsguy, are your maps the current maps of the legislature, or you draw yourself your maps?

I'm just drawing new ones.

[ElectionsGuy]

North Dakota:



10: 51.8% Obama, 46.4% McCain = Toss-Up
15: 51.0% McCain, 46.5% Obama = Likely R
16: 51.8% McCain, 45.7% Obama = Likely R
17: 49.6% McCain, 47.6% Obama = Lean R
18: 51.7% McCain, 46.3% Obama = Likely R
19: 53.0% Obama, 44.9% McCain = Lean D
20: 50.3% Obama, 48.0% McCain = Lean R
21: 49.5% Obama, 48.3% McCain = Lean R
23: 62.4% McCain, 34.9% Obama = Safe R
28: 63.1% McCain, 33.9% Obama = Safe R
29: 57.3% McCain, 39.9% Obama = Safe R
30: 55.7% Obama, 42.5% McCain = Likely D
31: 68.1% Obama, 30.0% McCain = Safe D
35: 60.8% McCain, 37.3% Obama = Safe R
36: 57.7% McCain, 40.1% Obama = Safe R
37: 57.9% McCain, 40.1% Obama = Safe R
38: 55.5% McCain, 41.7% Obama = Safe R
39: 67.0% McCain, 31.6% Obama = Safe R
40: 60.0% McCain, 38.0% Obama = Safe R
41: 56.3% McCain, 41.0% Obama = Safe R
44: 67.3% McCain, 30.6% Obama = Safe R
45: 67.6% McCain, 29.9% Obama = Safe R
46: 62.2% McCain, 35.5% Obama = Safe R
47: 60.3% McCain, 37.2% Obama = Safe R

Fargo Close-Up:



1: 63.5% Obama, 33.8% McCain = Safe D
2: 56.6% Obama, 41.5% McCain = Likely D
3: 59.1% Obama, 39.0% McCain = Likely D
4: 52.2% Obama, 46.2% McCain = Toss-Up
5: 49.9% Obama, 48.5% McCain = Lean R
6: 52.1% McCain, 46.6% Obama = Likely R
7: 50.6% McCain, 48.1% Obama = Likely R
8: 58.8% Obama, 39.6% McCain = Likely D
9: 52.4% McCain, 46.2% Obama = Likely R

Grand Forks Close-Up:



11: 59.9% Obama, 38.3% McCain = Safe D
12: 55.3% Obama, 42.9% McCain = Lean D
13: 50.8% McCain, 47.9% Obama = Likely R
14: 49.3% McCain, 49.0% Obama = Lean R

Jamestown Close-Up:



22: 54.4% McCain, 43.5% Obama = Likely R

Bismark Close-Up:



24: 51.6% McCain, 46.2% Obama = Likely R
25: 61.0% McCain, 37.4% Obama = Safe R
26: 59.3% McCain, 38.8% Obama = Safe R
27: 63.7% McCain, 34.9% Obama = Safe R

Minot Close-Up:



32: 53.6% McCain, 44.2% Obama = Likely R
33: 60.8% McCain, 37.9% Obama = Safe R
34: 58.2% McCain, 40.6% Obama = Safe R

Williston Close-Up:



42: 66.5% McCain, 31.9% Obama = Safe R

Dickinson Close-Up:



43: 60.9% McCain, 36.9% Obama = Safe R

Overall, thats 36 R, 9 D, and 2 Toss-Ups. The current senate is 33-14 R. Splitting the toss-ups, that would be 37/47 which would be 78.7%. I'll usually just split the number of toss-ups in half. And how would you guys judge my ratings? Are they fair given the Obama over performance of 2008?

[ElectionsGuy]

You have some VRA issues for your ND map. Firstly, you have to draw a Rolette County district. You also need to put Fort Berthold back together.

31 is mostly Rolette County and over 50% Native American. And for the second thing, isn't most of that it 46? Either way, not changing it. Sorry.

[ElectionsGuy]

South Dakota:



8: 54.5% McCain, 43.5% Obama = Safe R
10: 51.6% Obama, 46.4% McCain = Toss-Up
12: 50.0% McCain, 47.9% Obama = Likely R
13: 49.6% McCain, 48.0% Obama = Likely R
14: 58.5% McCain, 38.5% Obama = Safe R
15: 57.7% McCain, 40.2% Obama = Safe R
16: 57.0% McCain, 40.9% Obama = Safe R
17: 52.0% McCain, 45.5% Obama = Likely R
18: 54.1% McCain, 43.8% Obama = Safe R
20: 53.0% McCain, 44.4% Obama = Likely R
21: 56.8% Obama, 41.5% McCain = Likely D
23: 50.3% McCain, 47.6% Obama = Likely R
24: 63.8% McCain, 34.6% Obama = Safe R
25: 51.5% McCain, 46.4% Obama = Likely R
26: 80.0% Obama, 18.2% McCain = Safe D
27: 55.6% McCain, 42.0% Obama = Safe R
31: 59.7% McCain, 38.1% Obama = Safe R
32: 64.6% McCain, 32.9% Obama = Safe R
33: 56.2% McCain, 41.0% Obama = Safe R
34: 63.3% McCain, 34.2% Obama = Safe R
35: 68.6% McCain, 27.9% Obama = Safe R

Souix Falls Close-Up:



1: 61.2% Obama, 36.3% McCain = Safe D
2: 56.5% Obama, 41.5% McCain = Likely D
3: 49.8% McCain, 48.6% Obama = Lean R
4: 52.8% Obama, 45.3% McCain = Toss-Up
5: 53.3% McCain, 45.4% Obama = Likely R
6: 55.5% McCain, 42.7% Obama = Safe R
7: 58.6% McCain, 40.3% Obama = Safe R
9: 51.1% McCain, 46.7% Obama = Likely R

Brookings/Watertown Close-Up:



11: 55.1% Obama, 42.7% McCain = Lean D
19: 52.9% McCain, 45.3% Obama = Likely R

Aberdeen Close-Up:



22: 51.8% Obama, 46.4% McCain = Toss-Up

Rapid City Close-Up:



28: 52.7% McCain, 45.0% Obama = Likely R
29: 60.8% McCain, 37.3% Obama = Safe R
30: 61.0% McCain, 37.6% Obama = Safe R

Thats 27 R, 5 D, and 3 Toss-Up. 28.5/35 = 81.4% The current state senate is 28/7, so very close.

[ElectionsGuy]

Delaware:



12: 59.5% Obama, 39.2% McCain = Safe D
13: 61.2% Obama, 37.5% McCain = Safe D
14: 62.0% Obama, 37.1% McCain = Safe D
15: 57.9% Obama, 41.2% McCain = Likely D
16: 55.1% McCain, 43.7% Obama = Safe R
17: 51.3% Obama, 47.9% McCain = Toss-Up
18: 51.7% McCain, 47.3% Obama = Likely R
19: 55.7% McCain, 43.4% Obama = Safe R
20: 56.7% McCain, 42.3% Obama = Safe R
21: 56.1% McCain, 42.8% Obama = Safe R

Wilmington Area Close-Up:



1: 68.7% Obama, 29.9% McCain = Safe D
2: 95.1% Obama, 4.5% McCain = Safe D
3: 77.6% Obama, 21.1% McCain = Safe D
4: 58.0% Obama, 40.8% McCain = Likely D
5: 57.7% Obama, 41.1% McCain = Likely D
6: 65.1% Obama, 32.9% McCain = Safe D
7: 68.4% Obama, 30.0% McCain = Safe D
8: 81.0% Obama, 17.9% McCain = Safe D
9: 71.1% Obama, 27.5% McCain = Safe D
10: 73.6% Obama, 25.2% McCain = Safe D
11: 77.1% Obama, 21.9% McCain = Safe D

That's 15 D, 5 R, and 1 toss-up. Overall that would be 73.8% D. The current one is 13-8 D.

[ElectionsGuy]

New Hampshire:



13: 51.8% McCain, 47.3% Obama = Likely R
14: 58.1% Obama, 40.8% McCain = Likely D
15: 58.2% Obama, 40.7% McCain = Likely D
16: 68.9% Obama, 30.4% McCain = Safe D
17: 53.4% Obama, 45.8% McCain = Toss-Up
18: 66.6% Obama, 32.4% McCain = Safe D
19: 57.6% Obama, 41.5% McCain = Likely D
20: 53.3% Obama, 45.6% McCain = Toss-Up

Southern Zoom-In:



1: 56.7% Obama, 42.4% McCain = Lean D
2: 53.5% Obama, 45.6% McCain = Toss-Up
3: 67.6% Obama, 31.7% McCain = Safe D
4: 61.1% Obama, 38.3% McCain = Safe D
5: 53.8% Obama, 45.5% McCain = Toss-Up
6: 54.9% Obama, 44.4% McCain = Lean D
7: 53.5% McCain, 45.5% Obama = Likely R
8: 58.4% Obama, 40.6% McCain = Likely D
9: 54.4% McCain, 44.7% Obama = Safe R
10: 53.9% McCain, 45.4% McCain = Likely R
11: 63.8% Obama, 35.4% McCain = Safe D
12: 50.3% McCain, 49.0% Obama = Lean R
21: 55.4% McCain, 44.0% Obama = Safe R
22: 51.6% Obama, 47.5% McCain = Lean R
23: 50.6% McCain, 48.5% Obama = Likely R
24: 53.5% McCain, 45.6% Obama = Likely R

Overall that's 14 D, 8 R, and 2 Toss-Up. Making it 62.5% D. I had huge problems with NH, including the two districts (23 and 24) are around 10,000 away from the correct deviation. That's obviously huge for these districts, and I tried fixing it, but its very hard to get around it without making precincts with less people in them! So oh well, there it is. I added a boost to republicans on the ratings just to emphasize their local over performance compared to national republicans. Republicans actually have the senate currently at 13-11.

[ElectionsGuy]

Maine:



27: 49.8% McCain, 48.1% Obama = Likely R
30: 59.5% Obama, 37.5% McCain = Safe D
32: 54.1% Obama, 43.4% McCain = Lean D
33: 49.6% McCain, 48.3% Obama = Likely R
34: 52.5% McCain, 45.4% Obama = Safe R
35: 61.9% Obama, 36.0% McCain = Safe D

Southwest Close-Up:



3: 60.8% Obama, 37.9% McCain = Safe D
4: 61.0% Obama, 37.3% McCain = Safe D
10: 56.6% Obama, 41.3% McCain = Likely D
11: 53.5% Obama, 44.4% McCain = Lean D
13: 61.0% Obama, 37.4% McCain = Safe D
14: 62.8% Obama, 35.2% McCain = Safe D
15: 54.8% Obama, 43.1% McCain = Lean D
16: 53.4% Obama, 44.8% McCain = Lean D
17: 60.0% Obama, 38.2% McCain = Safe D
18: 56.0% Obama, 42.0% McCain = Likely D
20: 53.6% Obama, 44.3% McCain = Lean D
21: 56.7% Obama, 41.2% McCain = Likely D
29: 55.1% Obama, 42.6% McCain = Likely D

Portland Close-Up:



5: 64.9% Obama, 33.2% McCain = Safe D
6: 57.3% Obama, 41.1% McCain = Likely D
7: 68.6% Obama, 29.9% McCain = Safe D
8: 80.4% Obama, 17.7% McCain = Safe D
9: 68.2% Obama, 30.2% McCain = Safe D
12: 58.9% Obama, 39.2% McCain = Safe D

Bangor/Augusta Area Close-Up:



1: 56.5% Obama, 42.0% McCain = Likely D
2: 58.7% Obama, 39.7% McCain = Safe D
19: 54.7% Obama, 43.4% McCain = Lean D
22: 59.8% Obama, 38.4% McCain = Safe D
23: 51.9% Obama, 46.1% McCain = Toss-Up
24: 63.6% Obama, 34.5% McCain = Safe D
25: 52.8% Obama, 45.6% McCain = Toss-Up
26: 57.6% Obama, 40.6% McCain = Likely D
28: 54.2% McCain, 44.0% Obama = Safe R
31: 53.6% Obama, 44.4% McCain = Lean D

I'm hesitant to put ratings here because of there being so many yankees. I'll figure it out later. I did have a few issues with deviation, but overall I think everything turned out good and neater than I expected. Max deviation was 3,000, but most were under 1,000.

Edit: 30/35 = 85.7% D. The current state senate is 20-15 R.

[ElectionsGuy]

Great job on Maine.

Would it be possible to do Pennsylvania, State Senate wise? Thanks.

Yes, I'm doing all the states. It won't be for awhile though, because I'm doing low population states first up to high population states. Wyoming first, California last.

Also, the reason I'm skipping AK, MT, and RI for right now is because they don't have election results. I'll do those later with more careful ratings on those.

[ElectionsGuy]

Hawaii:


 
1: 75.1% Obama, 22.9% McCain = Safe D
2: 67.6% Obama, 30.2% McCain = Safe D
19: 71.0% Obama, 27.6% McCain = Safe D
22: 75.2% Obama, 22.9% McCain = Safe D
23: 69.3% Obama, 29.0% McCain = Safe D
24: 77.2% Obama, 20.0% McCain = Safe D
25: 80.2% Obama, 18.5% McCain = Safe D

Honolulu County Close-Up:



3: 71.4% Obama, 27.0% McCain = Safe D
4: 69.2% Obama, 28.4% McCain = Safe D
5: 75.1% Obama, 23.0% McCain = Safe D
6: 73.9% Obama, 24.6% McCain = Safe D
7: 70.2% Obama, 28.1% McCain = Safe D
8: 68.7% Obama, 30.0% McCain = Safe D
9: 63.1% Obama, 35.9% McCain = Likely D
10: 66.3% Obama, 32.5% McCain = Safe D
11: 71.5% Obama, 27.1% McCain = Safe D
12: 68.7% Obama, 30.0% McCain = Safe D
13: 69.1% Obama, 29.9% McCain = Safe D
14: 70.0% Obama, 28.8% McCain = Safe D
15: 69.2% Obama, 29.6% McCain = Safe D
16: 71.3% Obama, 27.5% McCain = Safe D
17: 70.0% Obama, 28.7% McCain = Safe D
18: 68.8% Obama, 29.9% McCain = Safe D

(The YellowGreen color you see is the start of the 19th district which continues onto Maui)

Maui Close-Up:



20: 74.9% Obama, 23.4% McCain = Safe D
21: 80.3% Obama, 18.0% McCain = Safe D
22: 75.2% Obama, 22.9% McCain = Safe D

(District 22 continues onto the big island)

As you can see, this is pretty close to the 24-1 control of the state senate now Maybe the republican can try to win in the 9th district, which *only* went 63% Obama.

[ElectionsGuy]

Hawaii:


 

The Hawaii constitution requires apportionment of senators and representatives among the 4 island groups.  Canoe districts are not legal.

I see... I suppose I could fix it, but I would have some big deviations. Doesn't really change anything politically. Pretty much what I would do is:

1. 1st district entirely on Kauai
2. 20th district take over the two little islands  in Maui County
3. 23rd and 25th districts (both to minimize deviation) take over leftover 22nd district area in Hawaii County.

[ElectionsGuy]

Rhode Island:



Providence Close-Up:



1: 92.0% Obama, 7.4% McCain = Safe D
2: 90.9% Obama, 8.5% McCain = Safe D
3: 79.1% Obama, 19.8% McCain = Safe D
4: 75.2% Obama, 23.2% McCain = Safe D
5: 79.4% Obama, 19.0% McCain = Safe D
6: 84.4% Obama, 14.3% McCain = Safe D
7: 80.7% Obama, 17.8% McCain = Safe D
8: 67.1% Obama, 31.2% McCain = Safe D
9: 68.3% Obama, 30.2% McCain = Safe D
10: 60.5% Obama, 37.9% McCain = Safe D
12: 78.9% Obama, 19.5% McCain = Safe D
13: 69.9% Obama, 28.3% McCain = Safe D
14: 77.1% Obama, 21.4% McCain = Safe D
15: 64.7% Obama, 33.6% McCain = Safe D
19: 60.5% Obama, 37.9% McCain = Safe D

Northern Rhode Island:



11: 52.6% Obama, 45.8% McCain = Lean D Likely D
16: 66.7% Obama, 31.8% McCain = Safe D
17: 58.0% Obama, 40.4% McCain = Safe D Likely D
18: 55.6% Obama, 42.7% McCain = Likely D
20: 52.7% Obama, 45.2% McCain = Lean D Likely D
21: 52.2% Obama, 45.8% McCain = Lean D          Likely D
22: 53.7% Obama, 44.2% Mccain = Likely D
23: 51.1% Obama, 46.7% McCain = Toss-Up         Lean D
24: 62.4% Obama, 36.2% McCain = Safe D
25: 62.9% Obama, 35.5% McCain = Safe D         Likely D
29: 63.4% Obama, 34.6% McCain = Safe D
30: 59.4% Obama, 38.8% McCain = Safe D
31: 58.1% Obama, 40.3% McCain = Safe D       Likely D
32: 56.5% Obama, 41.7% McCain = Likely D
33: 60.5% Obama, 37.8% McCain = Safe D      Likely D
34: 54.4% Obama, 43.9% McCain = Likely D        Lean D

Southern Rhode Island:



26: 65.1% Obama, 33.5% McCain = Safe D
27: 58.8% Obama, 39.9% McCain = Safe D         Likely D
28: 58.6% Obama, 39.8% McCain = Safe D         Lean D
35: 57.7% Obama, 40.4% McCain = Safe D
36: 57.6% Obama, 40.3% McCain = Safe D         Lean D
37: 58.8% Obama, 39.6% McCain = Safe D       Likely D
38: 64.9% Obama, 33.4% McCain = Safe D      Likely D
 
Using my best guesses about county data, I made the ratings. These are educated guesses, so please tell me if I'm wrong on these (which I certainly could be). Overall this is almost all guaranteed D. The R's have a shot at the more rural districts like 23, 36, 20, 21, 22, etc. There might be contiguity problems with 26 (as part is in Newport and the other part is in Washington county). The current state senate is 32-5-1.

EDIT: I put in the actual numbers since DRA has them now.

[ElectionsGuy]

Idaho:



Northern Idaho:



1: 57.5% McCain, 39.5% Obama = Safe R
5: 61.1% McCain, 36.1% Obama = Safe R
6: 49.8% Obama, 47.4% McCain = Toss-Up
7: 62.8% McCain, 35.1% Obama = Safe R

Coeur d'Alene Close-Up:



2: 53.4% McCain, 44.3% Obama = Likely R
3: 67.9% McCain, 29.9% Obama = Safe R
4: 64.3% McCain, 33.3% Obama = Safe R

Boise and Suburbs Close-Up:



8: 55.3% Obama, 42.4% McCain = Lean D
9: 69.1% Obama, 28.4% McCain = Safe D
10: 50.7% Obama, 47.2% McCain = Toss-Up
11: 49.9% Obama, 47.5% McCain = Toss-Up
12: 64.6% McCain, 33.8% Obama = Safe R
13: 58.2% McCain, 40.0% Obama = Safe R
14: 63.1% McCain, 34.9% Obama = Safe R
15: 63.8% McCain, 34.2% Obama = Safe R
16: 62.1% McCain, 35.5% Obama = Safe R
17: 60.1% McCain, 37.8% Obama = Safe R
18: 67.0% McCain, 30.7% Obama = Safe R
19: 68.4% McCain, 30.0% Obama = Safe R
20: 71.0% McCain, 26.7% Obama = Safe R

Twin Falls Close-Up:



21: 62.2% McCain, 35.4% Obama = Safe R

Pocatello/Idaho Falls Close-Up:



28: 49.1% McCain, 48.0% Obama = Lean R
30: 63.0% McCain, 34.5% Obama = Safe R
31: 62.6% McCain, 35.2% Obama = Safe R
33: 84.7% McCain, 13.0% Obama = Safe R

Southern Idaho:



22: 69.1% McCain, 28.5% Obama = Safe R
23: 65.9% McCain, 31.3% Obama = Safe R
24: 70.0% McCain, 27.9% Obama = Safe R
25: 76.8% McCain, 20.7% Obama = Safe R
26: 69.7% McCain, 27.8% Obama = Safe R
27: 50.3% McCain, 47.4% Obama = Likely R
29: 74.5% McCain, 22.4% Obama = Safe R
32: 74.0% McCain, 23.3% Obama = Safe R
34: 75.7% McCain, 22.0% Obama = Safe R
35: 73.5% McCain, 24.3% Obama = Safe R

31.5/35  = 90% R

[ElectionsGuy]

I've been mapping Texas myself recently, and you basically have to focus, laserlike, the VRA (which doesn't just mean majority-minority districts in TX- a 55% Latino district that swallows up republican exurbia for that other 45% is probably illegal, due to weird turnout rates) . What are the Hispanic percentages?

These are non-VAP numbers:

1: 82.0%
2: 33.3%
3: 90.9%
4: 91.3%
5: 39.2%
6: 22.3%
7: 77.1%
8: 40.1%
9: 60.2% (Majority Hispanic McCain district, is this the one you were talking about?)
10: 33.2%
11: 49.8%
12: 52.4%
13: 34.5% (Most diverse district: 34% H, 24% W, 24% B, 15% A)
14: 36.3%
15: 20.5%
16: 24.6%
17: 32.7%
18: 22.5%
19: 15.4%
20: 44.5%
21: 38.2%
22: 31.7%
23: 36.0%
24: 18.0%
25: 14.6%
26: 17.5%
27: 16.9%
28: 11.7%
29: 16.7%
30: 32.8%
31: 29.4% (You would think this district would be higher than 30)

[ElectionsGuy]

Nebraska (Unicameral)



18: 60.3% McCain, 38.3% Obama = Safe R
25: 55.6% McCain, 43.2% Obama = Safe R
26: 54.4% McCain, 43.7% Obama = Likely R
27: 58.3% McCain, 40.3% Obama = Safe R
28: 55.4% McCain, 43.0% Obama = Safe R
29: 59.3% McCain, 38.6% Obama = Safe R
30: 54.2% McCain, 43.7% Obama = Likely R
31: 61.7% McCain, 36.3% Obama = Safe R
32: 63.6% McCain, 34.7% Obama = Safe R
35: 69.2% McCain, 29.3% Obama = Safe R
36: 71.2% McCain, 27.2% Obama = Safe R
37: 69.2% McCain, 29.2% Obama = Safe R
38: 69.2% McCain, 29.3% Obama = Safe R
39: 62.2% McCain, 36.3% Obama = Safe R
40: 64.4% McCain, 34.0% Obama = Safe R
41: 66.8% McCain, 31.2% Obama = Safe R
42: 73.5% McCain, 24.9% Obama = Safe R
43: 75.4% McCain, 23.2% Obama = Safe R
44: 66.1% McCain, 32.3% Obama = Safe R
45: 60.6% McCain, 37.8% Obama = Safe R
46: 66.5% McCain, 32.1% Obama = Safe R
47: 68.3% McCain, 29.4% Obama = Safe R
48: 75.9% McCain, 21.7% Obama = Safe R
49: 71.9% McCain, 26.4% Obama = Safe R

Omaha Area Close-Up:



1: 62.9% Obama, 35.2% McCain = Safe D
2: 55.3% Obama, 42.8% McCain = Lean D
3: 66.1% Obama, 31.7% McCain = Safe D
4: 63.1% Obama, 35.3% McCain = Safe D
5: 90.3% Obama, 9.1% McCain = Safe D
6: 65.4% Obama, 33.2% McCain = Safe D
7: 51.8% Obama, 46.8% McCain = Toss-Up
8: 51.3% McCain, 47.3% Obama = Lean R
9: 51.2% McCain, 47.8% Obama = Lean R
10: 56.6% McCain, 42.3% Obama = Safe R
11: 57.0% McCain, 41.9% Obama = Safe R
12: 60.8% McCain, 38.3% Obama = Safe R
13: 58.1% McCain, 40.9% Obama = Safe R
14: 63.9% McCain, 35.3% Obama = Safe R
15: 53.9% McCain, 44.7% Obama = Likely R
16: 57.7% McCain, 40.9% Obama = Safe R
17: 55.3% McCain, 43.0% Obama = Safe R

Lincoln Close-Up:



19: 70.8% Obama, 26.9% McCain = Safe D
20: 60.8% Obama, 37.4% McCain = Safe D
21: 56.8% Obama, 41.7% McCain = Likely D
22: 54.1% Obama, 44.6% McCain = Lean D
23: 51.0% McCain, 47.8% Obama = Lean R
24: 55.8% McCain, 43.2% Obama = Safe R

Kearney/Grand Island Close-Up:



33: 56.1% McCain, 42.0% Obama = Safe R
34: 67.2% McCain, 31.5% Obama = Safe R

I know its non-partisan, but I'll do partisan numbers for the sake of things here. 38.5/49 R = 78.6% R.

By the way, I know I stopped posting the map. I'll do that just once at the end of this, I don't want to have to post it every single time I do a state.

[ElectionsGuy]

Nevada:



15: 50.2% McCain, 47.5% Obama = Likely R
19: 58.2% McCain, 39.0% Obama = Safe R
20: 53.8% McCain, 43.7% Obama = Safe R
21: 62.2% McCain, 34.4% Obama = Safe R

Las Vegas Area Close-Up:



1: 64.1% Obama, 34.3% McCain = Safe D
2: 79.1% Obama, 19.0% McCain = Safe D
3: 64.5% Obama, 33.1% McCain = Safe D
4: 77.1% Obama, 20.4% McCain = Safe D
5: 65.4% Obama, 32.1% McCain = Safe D
6: 61.4% Obama, 36.4% McCain = Safe D
7: 49.9% Obama, 47.8% McCain = Lean R
8: 52.3% Obama, 46.2% McCain = Toss-Up
9: 57.5% Obama, 40.6% McCain = Likely D
10: 62.0% Obama, 36.0% McCain = Safe D
11: 60.2% Obama, 37.6% McCain = Safe D
12: 64.2% Obama, 33.4% McCain = Safe D
13: 56.0% Obama, 42.0% McCain = Lean D
14: 49.8% McCain, 48.6% Obama = Likely R

Reno Area Close-Up:



16: 65.4% Obama, 32.0% McCain = Safe D
17: 58.5% Obama, 39.2% McCain = Likely D
18: 49.4% McCain, 48.7% Obama = Likely R

13.5/21 D = 64.3% D. Current State Senate is 11-10 D.

[ElectionsGuy]

Utah:



19: 61.9% McCain, 35.3% Obama = Safe R
27: 75.4% McCain, 20.9% Obama = Safe R
28: 75.8% McCain, 19.8% Obama = Safe R
29: 65.5% McCain, 32.0% Obama = Safe R

Salt Lake/Davis Counties Close-Up:



1: 68.1% Obama, 29.0% McCain = Safe D
2: 68.7% Obama, 28.7% McCain = Safe D
3: 58.7% Obama, 38.0% McCain = Likely D
4: 49.7% Obama, 47.9% McCain = Lean R
5: 49.7% McCain, 47.2% Obama = Likely R
6: 49.2% McCain, 47.9% Obama = Likely R
7: 51.3% McCain, 45.9% Obama = Likely R
8: 54.0% McCain, 43.1% Obama = Safe R
9: 58.7% McCain, 38.4% Obama = Safe R
10: 68.7% McCain, 28.7% Obama = Safe R
11: 65.8% McCain, 31.8% Obama = Safe R
12: 68.4% McCain, 28.8% Obama = Safe R
13: 71.4% McCain, 25.9% Obama = Safe R
14: 69.5% McCain, 27.5% Obama = Safe R
15: 63.7% McCain, 33.9% Obama = Safe R

Utah County Close-Up:



20: 77.1% McCain, 20.1% Obama = Safe R
21: 79.7% McCain, 17.1% Obama = Safe R
22: 75.9% McCain, 20.4% Obama = Safe R
23: 72.3% McCain, 24.0% Obama = Safe R
24: 78.7% McCain, 17.9% Obama = Safe R
25: 69.0% McCain, 27.3% Obama = Safe R

Northern Utah Close-Up:



16: 53.7% McCain, 43.4% Obama = Safe R
17: 76.4% McCain, 21.2% Obama = Safe R
18: 69.7% McCain, 25.8% Obama = Safe R

St. George Close-Up:



26: 75.7% McCain, 21.8% Obama = Safe R

26/29 R = 89.7% R. The current state senate is 24-5 R.

[ElectionsGuy]

Kansas:



23: 54.5% McCain, 43.3% Obama = Safe R
24: 61.2% McCain, 36.7% Obama = Safe R
25: 62.9% McCain, 35.1% Obama = Safe R
26: 65.6% McCain, 32.3% Obama = Safe R
27: 64.8% McCain, 33.1% Obama = Safe R
28: 65.1% McCain, 32.7% Obama = Safe R
29: 63.2% McCain, 35.2% Obama = Safe R
30: 55.2% McCain, 42.9% Obama = Safe R
31: 52.7% McCain, 45.6% Obama = Likely R
32: 58.8% McCain, 39.1% Obama = Safe R
33: 63.7% McCain, 34.4% Obama = Safe R
34: 70.6% McCain, 27.1% Obama = Safe R
35: 61.7% McCain, 36.3% Obama = Safe R
36: 70.6% McCain, 27.9% Obama = Safe R
37: 71.8% McCain, 26.2% Obama = Safe R
38: 74.3% McCain, 23.7% Obama = Safe R
39: 74.3% McCain, 24.3% Obama = Safe R
40: 73.6% McCain, 24.7% Obama = Safe R

Kansas City/Lawrence/Topeka/Johnson County Close-Up:



1: 66.0% Obama, 32.0% McCain = Safe D
2: 76.8% Obama, 22.2% McCain = Safe D
3: 55.2% Obama, 43.1% McCain = Lean D
4: 49.5% Obama, 49.2% McCain = Lean R
5: 53.8% McCain, 44.9% Obama = Likely R
6: 53.9% McCain, 44.9% Obama = Likely R
7: 56.6% McCain, 42.5% Obama = Safe R
8: 54.0% McCain, 44.4% Obama = Safe R
9: 59.5% McCain, 38.9% Obama = Safe R
10: 63.8% McCain, 35.2% Obama = Safe R
11: 72.1% Obama, 25.7% McCain = Safe D
12: 62.0% Obama, 35.9% McCain = Safe D
13: 54.2% McCain, 44.2% Obama = Safe R
14: 51.3% McCain, 47.1% Obama = Likely R
15: 54.9% McCain, 43.4% Obama = Safe R

Wichita Close-Up:



16: 72.1% Obama, 26.2% McCain = Safe D
17: 50.9% McCain, 46.7% Obama = Likely R
18: 51.9% Obama, 46.1% McCain = Toss-Up
19: 59.8% McCain, 38.6% Obama = Safe R
20: 61.8% McCain, 36.5% Obama = Safe R
21: 63.3% McCain, 35.1% Obama = Safe R
22: 66.8% McCain, 31.2% Obama = Safe R

33.5/40 R = 83.7% R The current state senate is at 32-8.

[ElectionsGuy]

New Mexico:



24: 77.8% Obama, 21.1% McCain = Safe D
25: 76.2% Obama, 22.7% McCain = Safe D
26: 51.4% McCain, 47.4% Obama = Likely R
27: 70.2% Obama, 28.5% McCain = Safe D
28: 68.8% Obama, 30.2% McCain = Safe D
29: 62.9% Obama, 35.8% McCain = Safe D
32: 55.6% Obama, 42.9% McCain = Lean D
35: 53.5% Obama, 44.5% McCain = Toss-Up
40: 68.6% McCain, 30.2% Obama = Safe R

Albuquerque Close-Up:



3: 66.5% Obama, 32.3% McCain = Safe D
4: 72.1% Obama, 27.0% McCain = Safe D
5: 79.5% Obama, 19.4% McCain = Safe D
6: 70.0% Obama, 28.9% McCain = Safe D
7: 77.0% Obama, 21.4% McCain = Safe D
8: 74.3% Obama, 24.0% McCain = Safe D
9: 64.6% Obama, 33.8% McCain = Safe D
10: 55.3% Obama, 43.7% McCain = Lean D
11: 52.5% Obama, 46.3% McCain = Toss-Up
12: 53.4% McCain, 45.6% Obama = Safe R
13: 52.2% Obama, 46.4% McCain = Toss-Up
14: 55.2% Obama, 43.3% McCain = Lean D
15: 53.2% McCain, 45.4% Obama = Safe R

Farmington Close-Up:



1: 68.5% McCain, 30.3% Obama = Safe R
2: 69.5% McCain, 29.0% Obama = Safe R

Las Cruces Close-Up:



30: 64.2% Obama, 34.1% McCain = Safe D
31: 72.3% Obama, 26.9% McCain = Safe D
33: 53.4% Obama, 45.1% McCain = Toss-Up
34: 50.3% Obama, 48.5% McCain = Lean R

Santa Fe Close-Up:



18: 82.1% Obama, 16.7% McCain = Safe D
20: 53.4% Obama, 45.4% McCain = Toss-Up
21: 64.0% Obama, 34.6% McCain = Safe D
22: 78.5% Obama, 20.3% McCain = Safe D
23: 72.6% Obama, 26.3% McCain = Safe D

Roswell/Clovis:



36: 61.6% McCain, 37.0% Obama = Safe R
39: 60.6% McCain, 38.2% Obama = Safe R

Southeast New Mexico:



37: 62.0% McCain, 36.7% Obama = Safe R
38: 70.3% McCain, 28.7% Obama = Safe R
41: 59.0% McCain, 39.3% Obama = Safe R
42: 56.0% McCain, 42.5% Obama = Safe R

Grand Albuquerque Area:



16: 50.7% McCain, 47.8% Obama = Likely R
17: 52.1% Obama, 46.4% McCain = Toss-Up
19: 50.5% McCain, 48.1% Obama = Likely R

24/42 = 57.1% D

[ElectionsGuy]

Arkansas:



8: 71.8% McCain, 25.4% Obama = Safe R
16: 62.5% McCain, 35.1% Obama = Safe R
17: 61.4% McCain, 36.7% Obama = Safe R
18: 67.3% McCain, 29.4% Obama = Safe R
19: 55.8% McCain, 41.6% Obama = Likely R
21: 67.1% McCain, 30.0% Obama = Safe R
22: 59.7% Obama, 38.8% McCain = Safe D
24: 62.1% McCain, 35.3% Obama = Safe R
29: 64.5% McCain, 32.5% Obama = Safe R
30: 68.9% McCain, 27.8% Obama = Safe R
31: 63.9% McCain, 32.4% Obama = Safe R
32: 66.3% McCain, 30.3% Obama = Safe R
33: 63.7% McCain, 33.1% Obama = Safe R
34: 58.1% McCain, 37.7% Obama = Safe R
35: 64.9% McCain, 32.0% Obama = Safe R

Northwest Close-Up:



1: 68.5% McCain, 29.4% Obama = Safe R
2: 63.6% McCain, 34.1% Obama = Safe R
3: 68.4% McCain, 29.7% Obama = Safe R
4: 53.0% Obama, 45.1% McCain = Likely D
5: 64.3% McCain, 33.6% Obama = Safe R
6: 69.8% McCain, 27.2% Obama = Safe R
7: 61.0% McCain, 37.1% Obama = Safe R

Little Rock Inner Close-Up:



9: 79.8% Obama, 18.8% McCain = Safe D
10: 72.3% Obama, 26.5% McCain = Safe D
11: 50.8% McCain, 47.7% Obama = Toss-Up
12: 61.6% McCain, 36.7% Obama = Safe R
13: 64.1% McCain, 33.9% Obama = Safe R
27: 56.6% McCain, 41.5% Obama = Safe R

Little Rock Outer Close-Up:



14: 60.7% McCain, 37.0% Obama = Safe R
15: 62.5% Obama, 35.4% McCain = Safe D
20: 66.7% McCain, 31.3% Obama = Safe R
25: 75.6% McCain, 22.2% Obama = Safe R

Northeast Close-Up:



23: 52.0% Obama, 45.9% McCain = Likely D
26: 60.5% McCain, 37.2% Obama = Safe R
28: 60.2% McCain, 36.6% Obama = Safe R

28.5/35 R = 81.4% R. The current makeup is 24-11 R.

[ElectionsGuy]

Jerry, you've always been too generous to democrats in Arkansas. You do realize the state senate currently is 22/13 and getting more republican every couple of years? I expect democrats to win some of those McCain districts for sure, but not many of those going >60%. Southern and Northeastern Arkansas have old democratic roots, but as demonstrated by the recent special election, another one of those red democratic seat holders is now gone (something like the 26 on my map). There is a clear trend here, and I don't think its just because of Obama.

Anyway, I would just take away 18, 21, 24, 31, 12, and maybe 16 from your list of democratic seats. I suppose I'll settle the % and partisan control a bit later.

[ElectionsGuy]

Iowa:



9: 51.1% McCain, 46.9% Obama = Likely R
12: 51.0% McCain, 47.1% Obama = Likely R
20: 49.4% McCain, 49.1% Obama = Lean R
22: 62.5% Obama, 36.0% McCain = Safe D
23: 57.4% Obama, 41.1% McCain = Likely D
24: 57.0% Obama, 41.3% McCain = Likely D
25: 59.5% Obama, 38.6% McCain = Safe D
29: 55.0% Obama, 42.3% McCain = Likely D
30: 49.0% Obama, 48.8% McCain = Lean R
31: 50.6% McCain, 47.5% Obama = Lean R
32: 49.4% McCain, 48.8% Obama = Lean R
33: 54.5% Obama, 44.0% McCain = Lean D
34: 50.1% McCain, 47.6% Obama = Lean R
35: 55.9% McCain, 42.6% Obama = Safe R
36: 55.6% McCain, 42.8% Obama = Safe R
37: 52.0% Obama, 46.0% McCain = Toss-Up
38: 54.0% Obama, 44.5% McCain = Lean D
39: 59.6% Obama, 38.7% McCain = Safe D
40: 59.0% Obama, 39.5% McCain = Safe D
41: 55.9% Obama, 42.4% McCain = Likely D
42: 52.0% McCain, 46.4% Obama = Likely R
43: 51.6% Obama, 46.6% McCain = Toss-Up
44: 49.5% McCain, 48.9% Obama = Lean R
45: 49.8% Obama, 48.2% McCain = Toss-Up
46: 55.0% McCain, 43.6% Obama = Safe R
47: 49.8% McCain, 48.4% Obama = Lean R
48: 51.0% McCain, 47.6% Obama = Likely R
49: 74.3% McCain, 24.8% Obama = Safe R
50: 60.0% McCain, 38.6% Obama = Safe R

Des Moines Close-Up:



1: 65.8% Obama, 32.3% McCain = Safe D
2: 67.8% Obama, 30.3% McCain = Safe D
3: 63.7% Obama, 34.5% McCain = Safe D
4: 61.3% Obama, 37.0% McCain = Safe D
5: 50.9% McCain, 47.6% Obama = Lean R
6: 51.4% McCain, 46.9% Obama = Lean R
7: 52.2% Obama, 45.9% McCain = Lean D
8: 53.0% McCain, 45.7% Obama = Likely R

Council Bluffs Close-Up:



11: 54.3% Obama, 44.2% McCain = Lean D

Sioux City Close-Up:



28: 57.0% Obama, 41.4% McCain = Likely D

Cedar Rapids/Iowa City Close-Up:



13: 67.9% Obama, 30.6% McCain = Safe D
14: 60.3% Obama, 38.2% McCain = Safe D
15: 53.1% Obama, 45.4% McCain = Lean D
16: 75.2% Obama, 23.0% McCain = Safe D
17: 64.8% Obama, 33.7% McCain = Safe D

Davenport Close-Up:



18: 55.4% Obama, 43.5% McCain = Likely D
19: 65.4% Obama, 33.2% McCain = Safe D

Dubuque Close-Up:



21: 63.1% Obama, 35.5% McCain = Safe D

Waterloo Close-Up:



26: 67.9% Obama, 30.7% McCain = Safe D
27: 55.8% Obama, 42.7% McCain = Likely D

Ames Close-Up:



10: 61.7% Obama, 35.9% McCain = Safe D

29.5/50 = 59% D