GOP: your dreams of recapturing Virginia are just that

[Non Swing Voter]

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/jan/29/arlington-county-among-fastest-growing-in-virginia/

"The densely populated Northern Virginia suburbs, close to the District, accounted for half of the state’s overall growth of 259,381 residents since 2010. Fairfax, the state’s largest jurisdiction, grew by 35,171 people to more than 1.1 million residents. Prince William County’s population grew by 29,256, a 7.3 percent increase to 431,258 residents. Alexandria’s population of 151,218 was an 8 percent increase that amounted to 11,252 new residents."

It's ok, with Obama's war on coal, you are sure to pick up votes in Southwest Virginia... OH WAIT...

"Ms. Cai said 33 Virginia localities — most of them outside the state’s urban areas — lost population. All seven of Virginia’s coal-producing counties lost residents from 2012 to 2013, the report said."

So now it seems the five inner counties of NOVA (Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax, Prince William, Loudon) are about 28% of the statewide population.  This doesn't include a few other NOVA cities/municipalities, so NOVA is probably about 30% of the state population to date... at least the heavily democratic part of NOVA is...

At this rate NOVA proper will be about 33% by 2020.  When you add in Richmond and its inner suburbs + some heavily democratic college towns, you are at about 40% of the state population. 

DC is about at capacity so this growth will probably just accelerate... especially after the silver line going deep into Fairfax is constructed.

Basically by 2020 the state population will be about:

40% living in very democratic areas.

30-35% living in swing areas (i.e., Virginia Beach area and outer Richmond/NOVA burbs).

25-30% living in very republican areas.

Obviously it's almost impossible for Republicans to win with that kind of math

[Mister Mets]

It depends on who moves to the areas with growth. A county won't be as Democratic if more Republicans move there.

Obama gained 12,288 votes in Virginia compared to 2008.
Meanwhile, Romney gained 97,517 votes over McCain (who got more votes than Bush in 2004 in the state.)

It looks like it'll continue to be a competitive state.

[stevekamp]

A better comparison is 2004 (national Republican peak raw vote year) versus 2012 (Democratic comedown from 2008).  Between 2004 and 2012, Democrats gained five times as many raw votes in Virginia versus the Republicans: 517,078 for the Democrats versus 105,563 for the Republicans. 

As a result, the margin flipped from Bush 262,217 to candidate Obama 234,527 to President Obama 149,298, an eight-year Democratic margin shift of  411,515 that exceeds any “missing white voter” number from Rural Virginia. If these trends hold up in 2016 and 2020, Democrats will hold the 13 electoral votes from Virginia and add them to the 246 from the 2004 John Kerry states  plus 6 from Iowa and 5 from New Mexico (two states that between 1992 and 2012 went Republican only in 2004, and only barely), giving Democrats the winning 270 once the polls close at 1900 hours Eastern Standard Time in the commonwealth – regardless of the outcome in Florida, Ohio, Colorado or Nevada. 

[sg0508]

It will slowly become another CO.  The GOP got caught in the '70s demographically and now they have nowhere to go.

[Del Tachi]

We will see the next time a Republican is in office that Northern Virginia has a pro-incumbent bent when it comes to national politics. 

[Smash255]

We will see the next time a Republican is in office that Northern Virginia has a pro-incumbent bent when it comes to national politics. 

Ummmm





Compared to national average

Fairfax
2000 GOP + 1.88
2004 Dem +9.76


Loudon
2000 GOP +15.73
2004 GOP +9.63

Prince William
2000 GOP +8.51
2004 GOP +3.98

Arlington
2000 Dem + 25.47
2004 Dem +38.73

Alexandria
2000 Dem +25.92
2004 Dem + 37.04

[hopper]

It will slowly become another CO.  The GOP got caught in the '70s demographically and now they have nowhere to go.

Well 80's.

No I think Colorado will probably continue to be a swing state. VA is probably going trend to the Dems more and more as the years go by.

[stevekamp]

Del Tachi -- the R has to win first to become the incumbent.

[Mister Mets]

It depends on who moves to the areas with growth. A county won't be as Democratic if more Republicans move there.

Obama gained 12,288 votes in Virginia compared to 2008.
Meanwhile, Romney gained 97,517 votes over McCain (who got more votes than Bush in 2004 in the state.)

It looks like it'll continue to be a competitive state.

You are going to be pretty devastated in 2016 with such a wishful mind bro.

I'm curious where you think Virginia will be relative to the popular vote in 2016.

For a state that was closest to the national popular vote in 2008 and 2012 to be something that Republicans can't capture in 2016 suggests that something's going to happen in the next few years to make the state significantly more Democratic-leaning, even with a likely reduction in African-American turnout. I don't see it changing enough for that.

[hopper]

Loudon County was pretty close to the State Average Presidential Results in 2008 and 2012 so as Loudon County goes as the state goes in terms of the Presidential Results I guess.

What's interesting about Loudon County is the Demography of the county vs the state average

Loudon County         State Average

White: 69%              64%
Black: 7%                 20%
Hispanic 12%            8%
Asian 15%                 6%

Loudon and Prince William are pretty Republican on the State and Local Level except for the State Senate where as Fairfax County is pretty solid D on all levels of government in the state.

[sdu754]

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/jan/29/arlington-county-among-fastest-growing-in-virginia/

"The densely populated Northern Virginia suburbs, close to the District, accounted for half of the state’s overall growth of 259,381 residents since 2010. Fairfax, the state’s largest jurisdiction, grew by 35,171 people to more than 1.1 million residents. Prince William County’s population grew by 29,256, a 7.3 percent increase to 431,258 residents. Alexandria’s population of 151,218 was an 8 percent increase that amounted to 11,252 new residents."

It's ok, with Obama's war on coal, you are sure to pick up votes in Southwest Virginia... OH WAIT...

"Ms. Cai said 33 Virginia localities — most of them outside the state’s urban areas — lost population. All seven of Virginia’s coal-producing counties lost residents from 2012 to 2013, the report said."

So now it seems the five inner counties of NOVA (Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax, Prince William, Loudon) are about 28% of the statewide population.  This doesn't include a few other NOVA cities/municipalities, so NOVA is probably about 30% of the state population to date... at least the heavily democratic part of NOVA is...

At this rate NOVA proper will be about 33% by 2020.  When you add in Richmond and its inner suburbs + some heavily democratic college towns, you are at about 40% of the state population. 

DC is about at capacity so this growth will probably just accelerate... especially after the silver line going deep into Fairfax is constructed.

Basically by 2020 the state population will be about:

40% living in very democratic areas.

30-35% living in swing areas (i.e., Virginia Beach area and outer Richmond/NOVA burbs).

25-30% living in very republican areas.

Obviously it's almost impossible for Republicans to win with that kind of math

You posted several numbers, but lets look at some numbers that you have decided to ignore.

Virginia Representation in the US House of Representatives: 8 Republicans 3 Democrats

Virginia Representation in the State House: 67 Republicans 32 Democrats

The State Senate is even at 20 Senators each.

With numbers like these, I find it rather funny to state that a republican couldn't win in Virginia.

It depends on who moves to the areas with growth. A county won't be as Democratic if more Republicans move there.

Obama gained 12,288 votes in Virginia compared to 2008.
Meanwhile, Romney gained 97,517 votes over McCain (who got more votes than Bush in 2004 in the state.)

It looks like it'll continue to be a competitive state.

You are going to be pretty devastated in 2016 with such a wishful mind bro.

I'm curious where you think Virginia will be relative to the popular vote in 2016.

For a state that was closest to the national popular vote in 2008 and 2012 to be something that Republicans can't capture in 2016 suggests that something's going to happen in the next few years to make the state significantly more Democratic-leaning, even with a likely reduction in African-American turnout. I don't see it changing enough for that.

2 things:

1) I don't see Republicans coming close in the national popular vote either, just like Virginia is trending democratic, so is the nation...

There were polls last November, that showed that if the election would have been held in 2013 instead of 2012, Romney would have won.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/11/19/president-romney-yes-if-the-election-were-held-today/

[Mister Mets]

It depends on who moves to the areas with growth. A county won't be as Democratic if more Republicans move there.

Obama gained 12,288 votes in Virginia compared to 2008.
Meanwhile, Romney gained 97,517 votes over McCain (who got more votes than Bush in 2004 in the state.)

It looks like it'll continue to be a competitive state.

You are going to be pretty devastated in 2016 with such a wishful mind bro.

I'm curious where you think Virginia will be relative to the popular vote in 2016.

For a state that was closest to the national popular vote in 2008 and 2012 to be something that Republicans can't capture in 2016 suggests that something's going to happen in the next few years to make the state significantly more Democratic-leaning, even with a likely reduction in African-American turnout. I don't see it changing enough for that.

2 things:

1) I don't see Republicans coming close in the national popular vote either, just like Virginia is trending democratic, so is the nation...

2) I do think the pace of change (as shown by the numbers I posted above) is accelerating.  NOVA is gaining population every year, southwest Virginia is losing population every year.  NOVA's growth is much faster than the rest of the state.  Also, NOVA's population is pushing out, despite NOVA people moving "out" of NOVA (technically) the region is gaining significant population.  The people moving "out" of NOVA are making the collar counties more democratic, so NOVA's growth doesn't even tell the whole story.  There is basically not one single trend in the Republican's favor in Virginia.

The only argument you can make (which you did) is that black turnout will go down with Obama not on the ticket... that didn't even happen in the Governor's race this year to any great degree.  Nor did the NOVA vote go down.

You still haven't explained where you think Virginia will be relative to the national popular vote. Will it be half a point more Democratic? Seven points more Democratic?

I could also understand an argument that Virginia may be fairly close to the popular vote, but that it will somehow be less elastic than other soft Obama states/ potential tipping point states.

If you think Republican dreams of recapturing the national popular vote are just that, you buried the lede by focusing on one state.

[hopper]

Everybody says black turnout was high because Obama of in VA. That may simply be not true because 21% of blacks showed up to vote in VA in 2004 and Bush W. did win 13% of the black vote in the state that year. The black turnout in VA for Obama was 20% which Obama won 92-6% both in 2008 and 2012. So the point in the 2010 Census is that the Black Population grew by 13%(along with the state average of 12%) but that black turnout peaked in 2004 of 21% and Blacks make up 20% of Virginia's population at the end of the decade. The numbers just don't add up and I don't think in 2004 the Blacks made up 20% of the VA's population unless theBlack population flat lined in VA in the second half of the 2000's.

[hopper]

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/jan/29/arlington-county-among-fastest-growing-in-virginia/

"The densely populated Northern Virginia suburbs, close to the District, accounted for half of the state’s overall growth of 259,381 residents since 2010. Fairfax, the state’s largest jurisdiction, grew by 35,171 people to more than 1.1 million residents. Prince William County’s population grew by 29,256, a 7.3 percent increase to 431,258 residents. Alexandria’s population of 151,218 was an 8 percent increase that amounted to 11,252 new residents."

It's ok, with Obama's war on coal, you are sure to pick up votes in Southwest Virginia... OH WAIT...

"Ms. Cai said 33 Virginia localities — most of them outside the state’s urban areas — lost population. All seven of Virginia’s coal-producing counties lost residents from 2012 to 2013, the report said."

So now it seems the five inner counties of NOVA (Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax, Prince William, Loudon) are about 28% of the statewide population.  This doesn't include a few other NOVA cities/municipalities, so NOVA is probably about 30% of the state population to date... at least the heavily democratic part of NOVA is...

At this rate NOVA proper will be about 33% by 2020.  When you add in Richmond and its inner suburbs + some heavily democratic college towns, you are at about 40% of the state population. 

DC is about at capacity so this growth will probably just accelerate... especially after the silver line going deep into Fairfax is constructed.

Basically by 2020 the state population will be about:

40% living in very democratic areas.

30-35% living in swing areas (i.e., Virginia Beach area and outer Richmond/NOVA burbs).

25-30% living in very republican areas.

Obviously it's almost impossible for Republicans to win with that kind of math

You posted several numbers, but lets look at some numbers that you have decided to ignore.

Virginia Representation in the US House of Representatives: 8 Republicans 3 Democrats

Virginia Representation in the State House: 67 Republicans 32 Democrats

The State Senate is even at 20 Senators each.

With numbers like these, I find it rather funny to state that a republican couldn't win in Virginia.

It depends on who moves to the areas with growth. A county won't be as Democratic if more Republicans move there.

Obama gained 12,288 votes in Virginia compared to 2008.
Meanwhile, Romney gained 97,517 votes over McCain (who got more votes than Bush in 2004 in the state.)

It looks like it'll continue to be a competitive state.

You are going to be pretty devastated in 2016 with such a wishful mind bro.

I'm curious where you think Virginia will be relative to the popular vote in 2016.

For a state that was closest to the national popular vote in 2008 and 2012 to be something that Republicans can't capture in 2016 suggests that something's going to happen in the next few years to make the state significantly more Democratic-leaning, even with a likely reduction in African-American turnout. I don't see it changing enough for that.

2 things:

1) I don't see Republicans coming close in the national popular vote either, just like Virginia is trending democratic, so is the nation...

There were polls last November, that showed that if the election would have been held in 2013 instead of 2012, Romney would have won.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/11/19/president-romney-yes-if-the-election-were-held-today/

The only thing your "argument" proves is that the house and senate are gerrymandered, what do district races have to do with a statewide vote.  While you're at it why don't you explain how New York is a battleground state because the map is mostly republican except for those little dots on it like New York City.

Why would democrats need to win a major of districts to win the electoral votes... when they are winning the major population centers 2 to 1.

Oh I know why, because you guys want to rig the electoral college now so the votes are allocated based on congressional district, having just realized you have no hope of winning the White House anytime soon.

Rigging Electoral College? Only 2 states have electoral college based on House Districts won and that's one blue state(Maine) and Nebraska(A red state.) Those are small states granted....

[hopper]

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/jan/29/arlington-county-among-fastest-growing-in-virginia/

"The densely populated Northern Virginia suburbs, close to the District, accounted for half of the state’s overall growth of 259,381 residents since 2010. Fairfax, the state’s largest jurisdiction, grew by 35,171 people to more than 1.1 million residents. Prince William County’s population grew by 29,256, a 7.3 percent increase to 431,258 residents. Alexandria’s population of 151,218 was an 8 percent increase that amounted to 11,252 new residents."

It's ok, with Obama's war on coal, you are sure to pick up votes in Southwest Virginia... OH WAIT...

"Ms. Cai said 33 Virginia localities — most of them outside the state’s urban areas — lost population. All seven of Virginia’s coal-producing counties lost residents from 2012 to 2013, the report said."

So now it seems the five inner counties of NOVA (Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax, Prince William, Loudon) are about 28% of the statewide population.  This doesn't include a few other NOVA cities/municipalities, so NOVA is probably about 30% of the state population to date... at least the heavily democratic part of NOVA is...

At this rate NOVA proper will be about 33% by 2020.  When you add in Richmond and its inner suburbs + some heavily democratic college towns, you are at about 40% of the state population. 

DC is about at capacity so this growth will probably just accelerate... especially after the silver line going deep into Fairfax is constructed.

Basically by 2020 the state population will be about:

40% living in very democratic areas.

30-35% living in swing areas (i.e., Virginia Beach area and outer Richmond/NOVA burbs).

25-30% living in very republican areas.

Obviously it's almost impossible for Republicans to win with that kind of math

You posted several numbers, but lets look at some numbers that you have decided to ignore.

Virginia Representation in the US House of Representatives: 8 Republicans 3 Democrats

Virginia Representation in the State House: 67 Republicans 32 Democrats

The State Senate is even at 20 Senators each.

With numbers like these, I find it rather funny to state that a republican couldn't win in Virginia.

It depends on who moves to the areas with growth. A county won't be as Democratic if more Republicans move there.

Obama gained 12,288 votes in Virginia compared to 2008.
Meanwhile, Romney gained 97,517 votes over McCain (who got more votes than Bush in 2004 in the state.)

It looks like it'll continue to be a competitive state.

You are going to be pretty devastated in 2016 with such a wishful mind bro.

I'm curious where you think Virginia will be relative to the popular vote in 2016.

For a state that was closest to the national popular vote in 2008 and 2012 to be something that Republicans can't capture in 2016 suggests that something's going to happen in the next few years to make the state significantly more Democratic-leaning, even with a likely reduction in African-American turnout. I don't see it changing enough for that.

2 things:

1) I don't see Republicans coming close in the national popular vote either, just like Virginia is trending democratic, so is the nation...

There were polls last November, that showed that if the election would have been held in 2013 instead of 2012, Romney would have won.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/11/19/president-romney-yes-if-the-election-were-held-today/

The only thing your "argument" proves is that the house and senate are gerrymandered, what do district races have to do with a statewide vote.  While you're at it why don't you explain how New York is a battleground state because the map is mostly republican except for those little dots on it like New York City.

Why would democrats need to win a major of districts to win the electoral votes... when they are winning the major population centers 2 to 1.

Oh I know why, because you guys want to rig the electoral college now so the votes are allocated based on congressional district, having just realized you have no hope of winning the White House anytime soon.

Rigging Electoral College? Only 2 states have electoral college based on House Districts won and that's one blue state(Maine) and Nebraska(A red state.) Those are small states granted....

You're obviously missing the point.  A plethora of Republican led states are trying to change the electoral college rules in those states (See, e.g. - Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, etc.)...

It seems Republicans know full well they are no longer competitive in the electoral college and now want to change the rules.

That's the key word "trying. Did the change the rules yet? No. There are always proposals by Democrats and Republicans that never see the light of day.

[hopper]

Well, in response to your argument about Republicans not winning Senate seats in Virginia, the state does seem to have a history of voting for Democratic senators, even when the state voted for Republicans at the presidential level. For one, Chuck Robb (D) defeated Oliver North (R) in 1994 while the Republicans won the Senate. Now, you could say that Oliver North was a weak candidate, but another rather weak candidate, Bob Dole, managed to win Virginia in 1996, albeit narrowly. It seems like Virginia just has stronger Democrats in office. You have Mark Warner, arguably an excellent Governor, who was elected just a few months after 9/11. Considering Bush 43 had sky-high approval ratings then, I believe Mark Warner's election has more to do with his individual strength as a candidate than Virginia's perception of the GOP. Virginia seems like it will continue to remain a swing state; I would expect it to vote for a Democrat if that Democrat won the presidential election, but I would suspect that if a Republican won the election, their path to victory would run through Virginia, especially since it was one of the closest states in 2012 (Obama won by 3.87%).

Some say Robb won in 1994 because of a third party candidate(Marshall Coleman) who had lost the 1989 VA Governor's race to Doug Wilder(D) as a Republican. Robb did win his first term in the US Senate without influence of a third party candidate and was also a previous Governor of Virginia as well.

I think if the Republicans can win more of the Asian and Hispanic Vote in NOVA they will be competitive there(not sure if they can win the state but they will be competitive), if they can't its gonna be hard to start off losing Blacks 90-8% to a Generic D(just throwing numbers out there) every election in the state.

I saw a map on the net which says VA will be a swing state in 2060. Not sure if I believe that or not.

[Mr. Reactionary]

The fact that Republicans haven't won a senate seat since Macaca-gate should tell Republican posters like the one who said "Democrats have only won Virginia twice" something...

Haven't there only been like 2 Senate elections since, both in Presidential election years? I remember Mark Warner and Obama winning in 2008 and Tim Kaine and Obama winning in 2012. And if memory serves the GOP ran joke, scandal-tainted candidates in both elections. I don't really see how throwing in the Senate helps you avoid the small sample size critique. I mean, between 2008 and 2012, the North Carolina GOP newly gained: control of the state legislature, a supermajority in the state legislature,  the governor's mansion, a majority of Congressional seats, and the electoral college votes for President. Looking at that sample size I predict North Carolina will never ever ever ever never go Democrat again, because the 4 year window I chose to look at supports this theory.

[Mister Mets]

The fact that Republicans haven't won a senate seat since Macaca-gate should tell Republican posters like the one who said "Democrats have only won Virginia twice" something...

Haven't there only been like 2 Senate elections since, both in Presidential election years? I remember Mark Warner and Obama winning in 2008 and Tim Kaine and Obama winning in 2012. And if memory serves the GOP ran joke, scandal-tainted candidates in both elections. I don't really see how throwing in the Senate helps you avoid the small sample size critique. I mean, between 2008 and 2012, the North Carolina GOP newly gained: control of the state legislature, a supermajority in the state legislature,  the governor's mansion, a majority of Congressional seats, and the electoral college votes for President. Looking at that sample size I predict North Carolina will never ever ever ever never go Democrat again, because the 4 year window I chose to look at supports this theory.

That's a fair argument. Democrats won three Senate races in favorable circumstances.

There is the counterargument that Democrats also won two of the last three gubernatorial elections.

Although several Democratic wins (including a likely win in 2014) come down to Mark Warner being uniquely gifted.

You won't have perfect correlations between statewide office and presidential runs. Maine has a Republican Governor and a Republican Senator, but is unlikely to go to the party.

There are two arguments about where we are politically, and the Virginia results fit both.

I think it's a swing state in both senses of the term. It can go towards either party, and it'll go with the winner of the popular vote. Politics is a bit like a metronome, with parties doing well and then losing support. Currently we're at a period when the Democratic party has support, so looks at recent elections will be susceptible to sample bias, just as an analysis of 1980-1988 presidential results didn't foreshadow 1992.

If Virginia and the country were steadily becoming more Democratic, the last few elections might very well turn out to be a fairly representative sample.

[Smash255]

The fact that Republicans haven't won a senate seat since Macaca-gate should tell Republican posters like the one who said "Democrats have only won Virginia twice" something...

Haven't there only been like 2 Senate elections since, both in Presidential election years? I remember Mark Warner and Obama winning in 2008 and Tim Kaine and Obama winning in 2012. And if memory serves the GOP ran joke, scandal-tainted candidates in both elections. I don't really see how throwing in the Senate helps you avoid the small sample size critique. I mean, between 2008 and 2012, the North Carolina GOP newly gained: control of the state legislature, a supermajority in the state legislature,  the governor's mansion, a majority of Congressional seats, and the electoral college votes for President. Looking at that sample size I predict North Carolina will never ever ever ever never go Democrat again, because the 4 year window I chose to look at supports this theory.

Silly comparison.  First off the key reason why the GOP has the Congressional seats in N.C is gerrymandering.  Same for the state legislature Supermajority-  Gerrymandering.  The State Legislature is hated, as is the Governor.  The GOP Presidential candidate did win the state last time around, but compared to the national average the state still trended Democratic. 

The Democrats have won the last two Presidential races in Virginia, three of the last our Governor's races in the state, the last three Senate races in the state (and it will be a 4th as Warner will win in a cakewalk)

Longterm the Democrats are in FAR better shape in VA than the GOP is in NC.

[illegaloperation]

The Virginia GOP could go into a death spiral.

Donors like to invest in winners, not losers. Now that every statewide office in Virginia is controlled by Democrats, it is not unreasonable to assume that Democrats will have the cash advantage in the upcoming elections.

Of cause money is not everything, and many certain things can overcome the cash advantage.

1. Superior ground game. How is the Virginia GOP's ground game? Horrible!

2. Favorable demographic shifts. The population growth in northern Virginia and the shrinking population in the south and east favor the Democrats and disfavor the Republicans.

3. Compelling candidates. Bob McDonnell is popular, but he has an incitement. Bill Boiling may be a popular Lt. Governor, but that fates the longer he stays out of office. John Warner won't come out of retirement. Don't even think about the political dinosaurs (ie. George Allen).

4. Favorable election environments. I can't predict the future, but this may be the only thing Virginia GOP may have in its favor.

Haven't there only been like 2 Senate elections since, both in Presidential election years? I remember Mark Warner and Obama winning in 2008 and Tim Kaine and Obama winning in 2012. And if memory serves the GOP ran joke, scandal-tainted candidates in both elections. I don't really see how throwing in the Senate helps you avoid the small sample size critique. I mean, between 2008 and 2012, the North Carolina GOP newly gained: control of the state legislature, a supermajority in the state legislature,  the governor's mansion, a majority of Congressional seats, and the electoral college votes for President. Looking at that sample size I predict North Carolina will never ever ever ever never go Democrat again, because the 4 year window I chose to look at supports this theory.

North Caroline Democrats have #1, #2, and #3 in their favor.

#4 depends on the environment, but the North Carolina GOP has turned the state's government into a toxic mess.