Germany has balanced budget for the 2nd year in a row
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  Germany has balanced budget for the 2nd year in a row
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Author Topic: Germany has balanced budget for the 2nd year in a row  (Read 1074 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: February 25, 2014, 03:15:44 AM »

Germany's public finances in black as recovery continues

Frankfurt (AFP) - Germany, Europe's biggest economy, clocked up a small surplus in its public finances in 2013, as growth picked up at the end of the year, official data showed on Tuesday.

"According to Destatis's latest calculations, the federal state's financing surplus amounted to 0.3 billion euros ($0.4 billion) in 2013," the federal statistics office Destatis said in a statement.

"It is the second year in a row that a small financing surplus has been achieved."

(...)

EU countries are obliged, under membership rules, to limit their public deficits to no more than 3.0 percent of GDP and to achieve balanced budgets or even surpluses in the longer term.

http://news.yahoo.com/germany-39-public-finances-black-2013-stats-office-073857024.html

https://www.destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2014/02/PE14_063_813.html
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1 on: February 25, 2014, 03:33:20 AM »

Our Maastricht-related numbers will be out on March 31 by STATISTIK Austria.

But a quick Google-search shows that the deficit will come in at around 1.5% (+/- 0.3%) of GDP for 2013 (down from 2.5% in 2012) and the debt will remain basically unchanged at about 74% (+/- 0.5%).

The central government is likely to have a deficit for 2013 (but lower than in 2012), while the states, cities and the social security carriers will all have surpluses.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #2 on: February 25, 2014, 11:38:23 AM »

Awful. Germany should do much more to stimulate internal demand.
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windjammer
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« Reply #3 on: February 25, 2014, 04:10:41 PM »

Long live to social dumping and austerity.
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Cassius
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« Reply #4 on: February 25, 2014, 05:23:29 PM »


Amen to that Wink
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windjammer
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« Reply #5 on: February 25, 2014, 05:27:19 PM »

Haha, I have laughed Tongue.
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Vosem
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« Reply #6 on: February 25, 2014, 11:06:01 PM »

Good for them!
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Supersonic
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« Reply #7 on: February 26, 2014, 12:30:54 PM »

I heart Germany.
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compson III
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« Reply #8 on: February 26, 2014, 01:59:10 PM »

If they keep this up the Euro periphery will collapse.
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Franknburger
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« Reply #9 on: February 26, 2014, 05:52:55 PM »

If they keep this up the Euro periphery will collapse.
Not really - most of the Euro periphery is not in the competitive position to benefit, should German consumer demand grow.
In all fairness, it needs to be noted that the balanced budget is to a good extent related to the Euro crisis (risks of which are recorded off-budget), since Germany is virtually not paying any interest on its state debt anymore. Don't have current figures at hand, but when assuming some 3% average reduction on the interest rate payable (some of the debt is long-term and as such still interest-bearing), times 2,000 billion debt, that's a 60 billion reduction on interest payments each year.
The second factor is low unemployment, which has reduced spending on basic social security, and provided social insurance (pension, health, unemployment) with surpluses. Tax income is, of course, also affected positively by lower unemployment.

As such, the budget surplus is not stemming from austerity. It needs to be related to substantial off-budget risks stemming from the Euro-crisis, and the fact that Germany is at the peak of the economic cycle. In view of both, the budget surplus is even rather small.
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compson III
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« Reply #10 on: February 26, 2014, 08:30:31 PM »

If they keep this up the Euro periphery will collapse.
Not really - most of the Euro periphery is not in the competitive position to benefit, should German consumer demand grow.
Could you point me towards some information in this regard?  12.19% of Italy's imports are to Germany, as are 11% of Spain's imports, 11% of Portugal's imports, and 9.6% of Greece's.  Not to mention the second order effects.  Also 10.27% of Turkey's imports, 31% of the Czech Republic's, 23% of Hungary's, and 24% of Poland's (not Euro but if they competitively devalue it will harm the former).
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PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald
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« Reply #11 on: February 26, 2014, 09:45:00 PM »

National debts are supposed to be grown out of, not payed off by kneecapping your economy by unnecessarily cutting demand.
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Franknburger
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« Reply #12 on: February 27, 2014, 12:53:49 AM »

If they keep this up the Euro periphery will collapse.
Not really - most of the Euro periphery is not in the competitive position to benefit, should German consumer demand grow.
Could you point me towards some information in this regard?  12.19% of Italy's imports are to Germany, as are 11% of Spain's imports, 11% of Portugal's imports, and 9.6% of Greece's.  Not to mention the second order effects.  Also 10.27% of Turkey's imports, 31% of the Czech Republic's, 23% of Hungary's, and 24% of Poland's (not Euro but if they competitively devalue it will harm the former).

Its a legitimate question, which I took as opportunity to cross-check older assessment with actual data. I started with Italy. Overall, Italian exports to Germany have from 2010 to 2013  increased by 13%, so its not like German austerity killing the Italian economy. Rather, Germany's economic strength is pulling Italy.

I have put commodity groups (2-digit classification) together into major groups. The allocation may in certain cases be a bit questionable, but the overall picture should be reasonably adequate.
In 2013, the top Italian exports to Germany were (share, change against 2010):
1. Machinery, equipment, electronics, tools:                     24.2 %, + 12%
2. Iron, steel, other metals, and products thereof:            14.9 %, + 17%
3. Food, beverages, tobacco                                           12.5 %, + 18%
4. Vehicles (mostly cars/ car parts):                                12.1 %, + 11%
5. Chemical & pharmaceutical products:                          10.3 %, + 21%
6. Rubber & plastics products (including tyres):                 7.8 %, + 22%
7. Leather, shoes, clothing                                               5.5 %, + 11%
8. Furniture, toys, other finished products                          4.4 %, - 5 %
9. Glass & ceramics                                                          1.9 %, - 5 %

The remainder (6.5%) falls on various un- and semi-processed products including fuels, textile fibres, wood, paper, etc.

If you look at that mix, 55% of the export is investment goods or manufacturing input. This export may to some extent ultimately be influenced by Germany's domestic demand, but more important is Germany's global competitiveness.
Some 20% of exports are vehicles, car parts, tyres etc. Some of that may be re-exported out of Germany, some may be geared towards business (delivery vans), some, as durables, be sensitive to German domestic demand. Pretty difficult to break down. However, in any case, competitiveness (technologically, quality- and price-wise) will be much more relevant to the fate of these Italian exports than German consumer spending.
That leaves us with about 25% consumer products. When it comes to food & beverages, Italy is (surprise, surprise) doing quite well, and might take its share of higher consumer spending. The same applies in principle to clothing, shoes and leather articles, though I wonder whether we are really talking about the price segments here that would benefit from, say, an increase in Hartz IV basic income. Finally, you have interior decoration (furniture, glass ceramics), where Italy is losing market share. Here, obviously, the issue is less about German demand and more about competition from Eastern Europe and Asia.
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