Does a Hillary win look more or less likely now compared to one year ago

[BlueSwan]

Rampant speculation about the 2016 election started as usual the day after the 2012 election (or in the case of this board, even earlier).

Back then, Hillary Clinton's approval ratings were through the roof and many considered her an inevitable winner in 2016 - or at least the surefire democratic nominee.

However, others maintained that lots could happen in four years and that Hillary might not even be interested in running again.

So what is the case a bit more than one year later? We're closer to primary season now, but there's still almost two years until the first primaries are held.

Hillary's approval ratings are still high, but not as high as they used to be. She still beats everybody in general election head-to-head polls and has a historical lead in dem primary polls.

For my own money I have actually voted "more likely". The reasoning being that while I was very sceptical whether she'd actually run one year ago, now I think she looks likely to run. I'm still far from certain, but if the polls are still this good next year, then I think she's in. And let's face it, the way things are looking right now, she would be the favourite for the election. Granted, Obamas approval ratings are poor, but the economy has continued to recover, which means that Obama has at least a fair chance of having decent approval ratings when 2016 comes around (assuming that the economy continues to recover, which obviously is far from certain).

[eric82oslo]

The only realistic Republican candidate with huge cross-over appeal, Christie, imploded since last year, so it's pretty clear to me that Hillary's odds of winning it all in 2016 is much greater today than it was a year ago. The other Republican who was also hailed as a possible saviour a year ag, Marco Rubio, isn't much talked about anymore either, after he chickened out and abandoned his own immigration plan (not to mention water-gate lol).

[SWE]

More likely, because all of the talked about GOP candidates are dropping like flies

[RedPrometheus]

More likely, because all of the talked about GOP candidates are dropping like flies

The Republicans need to come up with someone to beat Clinton. But I can't imagine who it could be.

[Mister Mets]

Less likely. 2013 wasn't Obama's best year thanks to the Health Care roll-out and the NSA reveals. Anything that hurts the President hurts the likely Democratic nominee.

[whanztastic]

More likely, because all of the talked about GOP candidates are dropping like flies

[Mr. Illini]

More likely simply because she has been able to continue to lead the pack rather than fall behind while the GOP frontrunners have not been able to do so.

[IceSpear]

More likely due to Bridgegate, despite her falling a bit in the polls.

[m4567]

I used to think it was too good to be true. I started buying into the Hillary hype a few months ago. Because of how weak the republcans look now, there's an even better chance of her running and winning.

[dmmidmi]

The only realistic Republican candidate with huge cross-over appeal, Christie, imploded since last year, so it's pretty clear to me that Hillary's odds of winning it all in 2016 is much greater today than it was a year ago. The other Republican who was also hailed as a possible saviour a year ag, Marco Rubio, isn't much talked about anymore either, after he chickened out and abandoned his own immigration plan (not to mention water-gate lol).

This cannot be overstated. Before Christie decided that short-sighted, petty retaliation was more important than the bigger picture, he was running neck-and-neck with Clinton in most national polling, and was easily the GOP's best chance of winning the Presidency in 2016.

Now, the party has to start all over again.

[henster]

Christie was always overrated Walker is the real frontrunner. Clinton is riding on name rec. right now when the campaign heats up expect the race to tighten significantly.

[RogueBeaver]

Christie was always overrated Walker is the real frontrunner. Clinton is riding on name rec. right now when the campaign heats up expect the race to tighten significantly.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

What's with this Walker fetishization?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

What's with this Walker fetishization?

Some are falsely blinded by his win in the recall race that he has crossover appeal and the ability to unite both wings of the Republican Policy. This is false. He hasn't taken any position on any national issues.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

If the GOP nominates someone who isn't a hawk, they should win.

[ShadowRocket]

Christie was always overrated Walker is the real frontrunner. Clinton is riding on name rec. right now when the campaign heats up expect the race to tighten significantly.

[Reaganfan]

I don't believe that the GOP is in as terrible shape as the forum liberal hacks make it out to be. Governor So and So is an electable Republican. Then his older brother calls a woman a jerk.
"WHAT A SEXIST FAMILY! THERE GOES HIS WHITE HOUSE CHANCES!"

It's overblown.

[Potatoe]

I don't believe that the GOP is in as terrible shape as the forum liberal hacks make it out to be. Governor So and So is an electable Republican. Then his older brother calls a woman a jerk.
"WHAT A SEXIST FAMILY! THERE GOES HIS WHITE HOUSE CHANCES!"

It's overblown.

When did that happen?

[Reaganfan]

I don't believe that the GOP is in as terrible shape as the forum liberal hacks make it out to be. Governor So and So is an electable Republican. Then his older brother calls a woman a jerk.
"WHAT A SEXIST FAMILY! THERE GOES HIS WHITE HOUSE CHANCES!"

It's overblown.

When did that happen?

It's an example of how if a Republican coughs, liberals say they are unelectable.

[Potatoe]

I don't believe that the GOP is in as terrible shape as the forum liberal hacks make it out to be. Governor So and So is an electable Republican. Then his older brother calls a woman a jerk.
"WHAT A SEXIST FAMILY! THERE GOES HIS WHITE HOUSE CHANCES!"

It's overblown.

When did that happen?

It's an example of how if a Republican coughs, liberals say they are unelectable.

Excuse me? I am a fairly hardcore Liberal and I don't do that crap, only when it really matters (BridgeGate, 47%, Ted Cruz and Dr. Seuss)

[bballrox4717]

I voted the same because the national environment is unfriendlier to the Democrats currently which will make it tougher, yet the Republicans lost one of their most credible candidates (Christie) to scandal, which kind of balances out I guess.

If I had to choose though, it'd probably be more likely. Hillary seems to be navigating the political scene relatively well so far since her return and Democrats are staying excited about her. As long as Hillary keeps her base and Obama's base happy and genuinely excited for her election, she's going to be extraordinarily tough to beat. But doing that for 2 and half years is gonna tough, but I have faith Hillary can keep it up as long as any serious potential rivals are scared out of running.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

More likely, with the crop of female candidates in office like Elizabeth Warren, make it more likely that she runs. Warren who was the anti Wallstreet candidate, and populism made it possible for Hilary to run. She isn't anti Wallstreet, but she is a feminist, and turn the investor class on its head by taking about income inequality. In addition to Bridgegate.

[Mister Mets]

Regarding Christie, it's worth noting that an year ago he was doing well in the polls, and as Governor of New Jersey, but he hadn't yet had the month of good publicity and national attention that came with his landslide reelection, but also coincided with the botched health care website rollout.

Christie wasn't yet seen as a guy with a better than even chance of winning the nomination on February 2013.

[pbrower2a]

More likely because the Republicans have done nothing to gain on her while calendar pages have been disappearing. Barack Obama has done nothing (scandals, military or diplomatic blunders) to make a GOP win a sure thing.

[Bull Moose Base]

I don't believe that the GOP is in as terrible shape as the forum liberal hacks make it out to be. Governor So and So is an electable Republican. Then his older brother calls a woman a jerk.
"WHAT A SEXIST FAMILY! THERE GOES HIS WHITE HOUSE CHANCES!"

It's overblown.

When did that happen?

It's an example of how if a Republican coughs, liberals say they are unelectable.

Only when it turns out the cough was a pre-arranged signal for some traffic problems in Fort Lee.