Does a Hillary win look more or less likely now compared to one year ago

[HAnnA MArin County]

I say it's about the same, seeing as how she was already going to defeat any Republican who challenged her. Republicans are facing an electoral college problem, if the most recent U.S. Senate elections are of any indication. Her floor was already close to 270 including Pennsylvania to where all she needed was Ohio or Florida, two states she's favored to win, and she will win.

Regarding Christie, I think BridgeGate will blow over long before the 2016 election, despite Rachel Maddow's attempts to talk about it 24/7. I think Bill Maher said it best when he said BridgeGate was the Democrats' version of the Republicans' Benghazi. But you can obviously tell that the Republicans are terrified of her running when they just randomly decide to bring it up to dominate a day's news cycle just to try to bring her down a point in the polls. If Benghazi is all they have on her, she's going to crush anyone who runs against her. Rand Paul's pathetic attempts to bring up Monica Lewinsky just shows how low they are willing to go. Like people really blame Hillary for that. Digging up "scandals" from the 90s to tarnish her is not going to be in the GOP's best interest.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

More likely, because all of the talked about GOP candidates are dropping like flies

The Republicans need to come up with someone to beat Clinton. But I can't imagine who it could be.

That's the problem I keep running into. There are scenarios where she could lose, but none of them seem to be, well, plausible. For example:

Rand Paul, after running pitch perfect primary and general election campaigns.
Nikki Haley, after successfully navigating the 2014 election goes on to run a brilliant presidential campaign.
Rick Perry, successfully re-brands himself and then runs a great campaign.
Brian Sandoval, with the united Republican Party supporting him all the way.

You can sub in other names: Rubio, Martinez, Rubio, Bush, Jindal, even Corbett or Branstad, but they all run into similar problems. Histories of nutty statements, inability to get the Tea Party or So-Cons on board, negative baggage, and/or questionable campaigning skills. They all add up to a very difficult path to winning the general election, and I just don't see it happening for anyone on the current Republican roster. Sure, there's always the chance of some odd low-probability event happening that paves the way for a reasonably competent Republican, but aside from hoping for a run of luck, I just don't see how the Republicans win the 2016 general election against Hillary. (Although based on post-WWII election history, Generic Republican ought to be a shoe-in.)