CO-SEN: Gardner entering Senate race

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

This is probably a toss up now. Only the weakness of Buck made it lean D.

The weakness of Buck made it Likely D.



Seriously. Remember when PPP was the only pollster that had Bennet beating Buck in 2010? Colorado will come home at the end.

I think Udall is the slight favorite, but I'm obviously biased so I'll just give my full take on it.

As I said in the other thread, I suspect we're not going to have a good idea of who the winner will be at least until the week of the election.  Gardner's advantage here is that he's not Ken Buck.  Udall's advantage is that it's not 2010, and even if it was, Gardner is still pro-Tea Party and has a voting record to show for it.  I would not be surprised if we were to see this race called the morning after the day of the election.  But, I think the fact that Bennet was able to keep his seat four years ago speaks to the strength of the demographic changes of the state and the way the Democrats organize there, and obviously Colorado has not gotten any whiter since then.

The fact that this is an Obama state that didn't swing more than a point or two against him helps, as well.  In fact, I think this is one state where an Obama campaign appearance would help the Democrats, and not hurt them.  The Dems have a built-in floor in this state now - a "firewall" - but that can obviously be broken if voters aren't mobilized.

[ElectionsGuy]

Ken Buck running for Safe R CO-4.

Gardner now running for Senate against Mark Udall.

Things just got a lot better for the GOP. This is probably another Michigan where republicans could have a good chance of an extra pickup on a really good night. If Udall was only up by 4 against Buck, then he might actually be in some trouble. Lean D for now until I get some more perspective.

Also, Sabato has moved this from Likely D to Lean D.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Excellent news!

[Vosem]

Very impressed -- Gardner could turn out to be an even stronger candidate than Land.

I'd like to see a PPP poll. Udall only led Buck 46/42 in their December poll.

CO's a fairly polarized state, and I can't imagine too many Republican supporters don't like Buck -- it was that Buck motivated Democrats in a way that Gardner wouldn't. I'd think Gardner and Udall are tied in the low 40s.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Very impressed -- Gardner could turn out to be an even stronger candidate than Land.

I'd like to see a PPP poll. Udall only led Buck 46/42 in their December poll.

CO's a fairly polarized state, and I can't imagine too many Republican supporters don't like Buck -- it was that Buck motivated Democrats in a way that Gardner wouldn't. I'd think Gardner and Udall are tied in the low 40s.

I'd like to see a PPP poll too, and see how much it exaggerates Udall's numbers.

Ken Buck running for Safe R CO-4.

Gardner now running for Senate against Mark Udall.

Things just got a lot better for the GOP. This is probably another Michigan where republicans could have a good chance of an extra pickup on a really good night. If Udall was only up by 4 against Buck, then he might actually be in some trouble. Lean D for now until I get some more perspective.

Also, Sabato has moved this from Likely D to Lean D.

CO-4 isn't safe R.  Gardner won it by beating Betsey Markey in 2010.

[ElectionsGuy]

Ken Buck running for Safe R CO-4.

Gardner now running for Senate against Mark Udall.

Things just got a lot better for the GOP. This is probably another Michigan where republicans could have a good chance of an extra pickup on a really good night. If Udall was only up by 4 against Buck, then he might actually be in some trouble. Lean D for now until I get some more perspective.

Also, Sabato has moved this from Likely D to Lean D.

CO-4 isn't safe R.  Gardner won it by beating Betsey Markey in 2010.

1. The district has changed since then and there's no incumbent in this race
2. How is a district that went 58-39 Romney in '12 not safe? This is on par with CO-5 or the state of Louisiana.

[free my dawg]

Ken Buck running for Safe R CO-4.

Gardner now running for Senate against Mark Udall.

Things just got a lot better for the GOP. This is probably another Michigan where republicans could have a good chance of an extra pickup on a really good night. If Udall was only up by 4 against Buck, then he might actually be in some trouble. Lean D for now until I get some more perspective.

Also, Sabato has moved this from Likely D to Lean D.

CO-4 isn't safe R.  Gardner won it by beating Betsey Markey in 2010.
[/quote]

And Betsy Markey only won in 2008 against a socon who was propped up by the KKK. Even if she runs against Buck, she'll probably lose. Very, very likely R.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

After Gardner supported that "North Colorado" secession garbage, I can't see him winning statewide.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

After Gardner supported that "North Colorado" secession garbage, I can't see him winning statewide.

When did he come out in support of that?  Link?

[publicunofficial]

Very impressed -- Gardner could turn out to be an even stronger candidate than Land.

I'd like to see a PPP poll. Udall only led Buck 46/42 in their December poll.

CO's a fairly polarized state, and I can't imagine too many Republican supporters don't like Buck -- it was that Buck motivated Democrats in a way that Gardner wouldn't. I'd think Gardner and Udall are tied in the low 40s.

I'd like to see a PPP poll too, and see how much it exaggerates Udall's numbers.

Yeah it's not like PPP is one of the most accurate pollsters of Colorado or anything.

Ken Buck running for Safe R CO-4.

Gardner now running for Senate against Mark Udall.

Things just got a lot better for the GOP. This is probably another Michigan where republicans could have a good chance of an extra pickup on a really good night. If Udall was only up by 4 against Buck, then he might actually be in some trouble. Lean D for now until I get some more perspective.

Also, Sabato has moved this from Likely D to Lean D.

CO-4 isn't safe R.  Gardner won it by beating Betsey Markey in 2010.

Saying CO-04 isn't Safe R is like saying ID-01 isn't Safe R in an open seat. Like CO-04 and VA-05, Democrats only controlled it in the first place because the R incumbent was a total jackass in 2008, and probably would've lost it even in a neutral year against any halfway-decent R challenger.

[5280]

Very impressed -- Gardner could turn out to be an even stronger candidate than Land.

I'd like to see a PPP poll. Udall only led Buck 46/42 in their December poll.

CO's a fairly polarized state, and I can't imagine too many Republican supporters don't like Buck -- it was that Buck motivated Democrats in a way that Gardner wouldn't. I'd think Gardner and Udall are tied in the low 40s.

I'd like to see a PPP poll too, and see how much it exaggerates Udall's numbers.

Yeah it's not like PPP is one of the most accurate pollsters of Colorado or anything.

Ken Buck running for Safe R CO-4.

Gardner now running for Senate against Mark Udall.

Things just got a lot better for the GOP. This is probably another Michigan where republicans could have a good chance of an extra pickup on a really good night. If Udall was only up by 4 against Buck, then he might actually be in some trouble. Lean D for now until I get some more perspective.

Also, Sabato has moved this from Likely D to Lean D.

CO-4 isn't safe R.  Gardner won it by beating Betsey Markey in 2010.

Saying CO-04 isn't Safe R is like saying ID-01 isn't Safe R in an open seat. Like CO-04 and VA-05, Democrats only controlled it in the first place because the R incumbent was a total jackass in 2008, and probably would've lost it even in a neutral year against any halfway-decent R challenger.

If you take a look, CD-4 in 2010 was lean R before the boundaries were changed, it used to have Fort Collins, and Loveland,  now it's safe R.

Pre 2012


Post 2012

[henster]

Personhood Amendment is on the ballot again it failed 71-29 in 2010 and 73-27 in 2008 helped drive Democrats to the polls will probably be pivotal in this race as well.

[Meeker]

This might still be Lean D right now, but it'll be in the toss-up column pretty shortly.

Though krazen is a lunatic, he's correct the GOP smells blood in the water this year. And I think there's a good chance they're on to something. Obama is running out of time to bring his numbers up.

[DrScholl]

He gave a flimsy answer about secession, saying that it was state matter. That could be translated as supporting it. Running from a staging point of a 59% Romney district is not a good statewide profile, he represents an electorate that is points more Republican and conservative as the state as a whole.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Looking at that map, I don't even see how Gardner's district even has enough people to be its own district. Eastern Colorado is very sparsely populated.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Udall will still probably win, Tancredo's craziness at the top of the ticket will drag down Gardner and Colorado still has the Obama infrastructure leftover from 2012.

[henster]

I believe Gardner supports the Personhood Amendment the same as Ken Buck.

[ElectionsGuy]

Looking at that map, I don't even see how Gardner's district even has enough people to be its own district. Eastern Colorado is very sparsely populated.

Douglas and Weld counties alone get the district over 500,000 in population. The 200,000 or so comes from the rest.

[free my dawg]

Looking at that map, I don't even see how Gardner's district even has enough people to be its own district. Eastern Colorado is very sparsely populated.

Fort Collins and its suburbs are in the district.

[publicunofficial]

Looking at that map, I don't even see how Gardner's district even has enough people to be its own district. Eastern Colorado is very sparsely populated.

Fort Collins and its suburbs are in the district.

No they aren't. They were moved to CO-02 in redistricting.

[free my dawg]

Looking at that map, I don't even see how Gardner's district even has enough people to be its own district. Eastern Colorado is very sparsely populated.

Fort Collins and its suburbs are in the district.

No they aren't. They were moved to CO-02 in redistricting.

Gotcha. And that even adds to the argument - CO-4's old PVI when Markey won it was R+6 (clearly enough for a candidate to screw themselves out of the seat), and now it's R+11. To lose a seat like this you have to be Bachmann crazy, and even Buck and Musgrave aren't as stupid and undisciplined as she is.

[IceSpear]

Speaking of Musgrave, has she conceded yet?

I'm actually surprised she hasn't emerged as a statewide candidate yet. The GOP loves their far-right failures.

[free my dawg]

I'm actually surprised she hasn't emerged as a statewide candidate yet. The GOP loves their far-right failures.

She's damaged goods, and much older than she looks.

[publicunofficial]

Muhammad Ali Hasan (Former CO-GOP leader/politician, founder of Muslims for Bush, now Democrat) has a pretty good summary of the race:

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[Miles]

I'd like to see a PPP poll. Udall only led Buck 46/42 in their December poll.

Me too. CO should be the winner next time PPP puts out options.

The last time they tested Gardner was pre-Obamacare rollout. They polled CO and NC in the same week last April and Udall/Hagan were both up 49-39 against Gardner/Tillis.

CO is a friendlier state, so I'd expect Udall up 1-3 if Hagan is tied.