CO-SEN: Gardner entering Senate race

[free my dawg]

Toss-up. My reflex says he wins because of the overall anti-D sentiment in the state. Hickenlooper may be recovering, but you have to remember he's facing crazies and corrupts.

[free my dawg]

Ken Buck running for Safe R CO-4.

Gardner now running for Senate against Mark Udall.

Things just got a lot better for the GOP. This is probably another Michigan where republicans could have a good chance of an extra pickup on a really good night. If Udall was only up by 4 against Buck, then he might actually be in some trouble. Lean D for now until I get some more perspective.

Also, Sabato has moved this from Likely D to Lean D.

CO-4 isn't safe R.  Gardner won it by beating Betsey Markey in 2010.
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And Betsy Markey only won in 2008 against a socon who was propped up by the KKK. Even if she runs against Buck, she'll probably lose. Very, very likely R.

[free my dawg]

Looking at that map, I don't even see how Gardner's district even has enough people to be its own district. Eastern Colorado is very sparsely populated.

Fort Collins and its suburbs are in the district.

[free my dawg]

Looking at that map, I don't even see how Gardner's district even has enough people to be its own district. Eastern Colorado is very sparsely populated.

Fort Collins and its suburbs are in the district.

No they aren't. They were moved to CO-02 in redistricting.

Gotcha. And that even adds to the argument - CO-4's old PVI when Markey won it was R+6 (clearly enough for a candidate to screw themselves out of the seat), and now it's R+11. To lose a seat like this you have to be Bachmann crazy, and even Buck and Musgrave aren't as stupid and undisciplined as she is.

[free my dawg]

I'm actually surprised she hasn't emerged as a statewide candidate yet. The GOP loves their far-right failures.

She's damaged goods, and much older than she looks.